Hasil untuk "Economics"

S. Athey, G. Imbens

We discuss the relevance of the recent machine learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods, and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the ML literature that we view as important for empirical researchers in economics. These include supervised learning methods for regression and classification, unsupervised learning methods, and matrix completion methods. Finally, we highlight newly developed methods at the intersection of ML and econometrics that typically perform better than either off-the-shelf ML or more traditional econometric methods when applied to particular classes of problems, including causal inference for average treatment effects, optimal policy estimation, and estimation of the counterfactual effect of price changes in consumer choice models.

P. Aghion, S. Durlauf

D. Bamber

A. Hawley, A. Losch, W. Woglom et al.

Jabulile Z. Manyike, Amon Taruvinga, Leocadia Zhou

This study explores the factors influencing smallholder farmers' decisions on livestock ownership and herd size in the context of climate change. A cross-sectional approach was employed, using a multi-stage sampling method to survey 600 smallholder farmers, 495 of whom were engaged in livestock production. Data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire and analysed using a double hurdle model. The findings reveal that the decision to own livestock is positively influenced by adherence to African traditional religion, access to climate information, membership in farming organizations, income diversification, possession of formal housing, exposure to high average temperatures, and the likelihood of being in female-headed households. In contrast, higher educational attainment and larger household sizes are associated with a lower likelihood of livestock ownership. The intensity of livestock herd is positively influenced by male-headed households, farm organization affiliation, access to diversified income streams, and higher average annual precipitation. While male-headed households are less likely to engage in livestock ownership initially, those that do, tend to have larger herds. The study concludes that both household capital and environmental factors significantly shape smallholder farmers’ livestock ownership decisions. The findings suggest that smallholder farmers in the study area may increasingly rely on livestock as a sustainable and adaptive strategy in response to changing temperature patterns and evolving socio-economic needs. Based on these findings, policy recommendations include promoting gender-inclusive livestock policies to empower female-headed households, enhancing access to climate information, supporting farm organizations and income diversification, and fostering adaptation to environmental changes, to improve the sustainability and resilience of smallholder livestock farming.

Bruce Wasserstein, J. Galbraith

Ryan Joseph CALINAO, Ryan GAMOSO

The study explores the influence of vividness, content quality, and system quality in virtual reality (VR) experiences on guests’ behavioural intentions in the hotel industry in the National Capital Region. It specifically examines how these factors affect guests’ engagement and decision-making processes. Using the Partial Least Square with Hierarchical Component Model Analysis, the results highlight the importance of immersive and high-quality VR content in enhancing guest experiences and influencing their future behaviours, such as revisiting or recommending the hotels. Additionally, the study underscores the role of system quality in ensuring a seamless and engaging VR experience. The findings through the use of the mediating effect, suggest that investment in superior VR technology can be a strategic tool for hotels to differentiate themselves in a competitive market and align with evolving consumer preferences as well as the cognitive absorption of the hotel guests.

Jianbo Zhao, Huailiang Liu, Weili Zhang et al.

S. Sadafi Abkenar, A.H. Chizari, H. Rafiee et al.

Iran Mercantile Exchange is striving to become a regional hub for price discovery of essential commodities and raw materials, providing producers with financial instruments and risk management tools. This study investigates the optimal hedge ratio in future and commodity deposit receipts (spot) contracts for Round Fandoghi pistachios. Using the BEKK-VAR-TARCH model, the impact of seasonal and daily volatility on returns and hedge ratios was assessed over the period from 19 October 2018 to 18 January 2022. The results showed that volatility on specific days of the week and during different seasons affect speculative and investment decisions in the commodity exchange. Particularly, sharp volatility during certain periods can lead to significant changes in returns and hedge ratios. These findings suggest that investors should update their investment strategies based on seasonal and daily volatilities. Additionally, the importance of utilizing financial instruments suited to market conditions for managing existing risks was confirmed. Ultimately, investors, speculators, and policymakers in the commodity exchange are advised to pay special attention to temporal changes and existing volatilities when composing their investment portfolios and adjusting hedge strategies. Furthermore, the use of futures contracts and derivative instruments is recommended as risk management approaches. This study contributes to a better understanding of volatility behavior and offers strategies for improved risk management in the Round Fandoghi pistachio market.

Nan Wang, Baolian Chen, Liya Wang et al.

Abstract While many organizations have successfully leveraged big data analytics capabilities to improve their performance, our understanding is limited on whether and how big data analytics capabilities affect social innovation in organizations. Based on the organizational information processing theory and the organizational learning theory, this study aims to investigate how big data analytics capabilities support social innovation, and how knowledge ambidexterity mediates this relationship. A total of 354 high-tech companies in China, this study shows that big data analytics management, big data analytics technology, and big data analytics personnel capabilities all have positive effects on social innovation. In addition, both knowledge exploration and knowledge exploitation play a mediating role in this process. Furthermore, a polynomial regression and response surface analysis shows that social innovation increases when knowledge exploration and knowledge exploitation are highly consistent but declines when knowledge exploration and knowledge exploitation are inconsistent. This study not only provides new perspectives for understanding how big data analytics capabilities contribute to social innovation, complementing the existing literature on big data analytics capabilities and social innovation, but also provides important practical guidance on how organizations can develop big data analytics capabilities to improve social innovation and solve social problems in the digital age.

Yvonne Anne Michel, Eline Aas, Liv Ariane Augestad et al.

Abstract Background Existing knowledge on healthcare use and costs in the last months of life is often limited to one patient group (i.e., cancer patients) and one level of healthcare (i.e., secondary care). Consequently, decision-makers lack knowledge in order to make informed decisions about the allocation of healthcare resources for all patients. Our aim is to elaborate the understanding of resource use and costs in the last six months of life by describing healthcare use and costs for all causes of death and by all levels of formal care. Method Using five national registers, we gained access to patient-level data for all individuals who died in Norway between 2009 and 2013. We described healthcare use and costs for all levels of formal care—namely primary, secondary, and home- and community-based care —in the last six months of life, both in total and differentiated across three time periods (6-4 months, 3-2 months, and 1-month before death). Our analysis covers all causes of death categorized in ten ICD-10 categories. Results During their last six months of life, individuals used an average of healthcare resources equivalent to €46,000, ranging from €32,000 (Injuries) to €64,000 (Diseases of the nervous system and sense organs). In terms of care level, 63% of healthcare resources were used in home- and community-based care (i.e., in-home nursing, practical assistance, or nursing home care), 35% in secondary care (mostly hospital care), and 2% in primary care (i.e., general practitioners). The amount and level of care varied by cause of death and by time to death. The proportion of home- and community-based care which individuals received during their last six months of life varied from 38% for cancer patients to 92% for individuals dying with mental diseases. The shorter the time to death, the more resources were needed: nearly 40% of all end-of-life healthcare costs were expended in the last month of life across all causes of death. The composition of care also differed depending on age. Individuals aged 80 years and older used more home- and community-based care (77%) than individuals dying at younger ages (40%) and less secondary care (old: 21% versus young: 57%). Conclusions Our analysis provides valuable evidence on how much healthcare individuals receive in their last six months of life and the associated costs, broken down by level of care and cause of death. Healthcare use and costs varied considerably by cause of death, but were generally higher the closer a person was to death. Our findings enable decision-makers to make more informed resource-allocation decisions and healthcare planners to better anticipate future healthcare needs.

M. Gillis, D. Perkins, M. Roemer et al.

This classic text has been aggressively revised to incorporate the latest research defining the Development Economics field today.

M. Bruno, J. Sachs

Jarosław Chwastowski, Katarzyna Wójcik, Henryk Kołoczek et al.

Tap water treated in air with low-temperature and low-pressure glow plasma of low frequency was tested for its either stimulation or inhibition of the growth of the selected microorganisms commonly colonizing human organism. The growth of chosen microorganisms was monitored by estimation of optical density of their colonies. The fairly linear growth against time of all microorganisms under study accelerated after 12 h from the beginning of the experiment. Colonies of E. coli and S. cerevisiae breed in the plasma treated water had an approximately 20% stimulation of the growth which was observed between 12 and 24 h. Neither stimulation nor inhibition of the growth could be noted for colonies of Aspergillus niger, Candida albicans, Yarrowia lipolytica, and Enterococcus faecalis, in whole period of observation. The plasma-treated water had no effect upon the growth of Mycobacteria. Independently of the water tested, M. tuberculosis started proliferating on the 14th day of the experiment, M. intercellulare and M. kansai after 9 days, and the growth of M. fortuitos could be observed after 3 days.

Hnin Wai Lwin Myo, Akiko S Hosler, Lawrence M Schell et al.

Abstract Objective: The Burmese population is one of the fast-growing refugee populations in the USA. This study investigated behavioural and environmental factors associated with fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption among Burmese refugees. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional interview survey in 2018–2019. The 24-h recall was used to assess dietary behaviour. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed with meeting the daily FV consumption recommendation (two or more servings of fruits and three or more servings of vegetables) as the outcome variable. We selected socio-economics, nutritional knowledge, food shopping frequency, ethnicity of preferred food store owners, perceived neighbourhood food environment and network distance to preferred food stores as potential explanatory variables. Setting: Two Upstate New York counties. Participants: Burmese refugees (n 173) aged ≥18 years. Results: Forty-five percentage of respondents met the daily FV consumption recommendation, and nearly all respondents identified ethnic (Burmese, Chinese/pan-Asian, or South Asian/halal) stores as their preferred stores to purchase FV. In the best-fit model, age (OR 1·08, 95 % CI (1·04, 1·12)) and shopping frequency (OR 1·51, 95 % CI (1·01, 2·26)) were positively associated, and network distance to preferred stores in kilometres (OR 0·81, 95 % CI (0·73, 0·90)) was negatively associated with meeting the daily FV consumption recommendation. No significant effect modifications by car ownership, poverty, length of stay in the USA and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation were detected. Conclusions: The findings suggested that having Asian ethnic food stores within a short, walkable distance from home and shopping at these stores often can promote healthy dietary behaviour among Burmese refugees.

Ioana-Sorina ANDREICA (MIHUT), Liviu-Daniel DECEANU

The last three years were characterized by a climate of drastic change due to a cumulus of disturbances and crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, energy crisis, military conflicts, banking fragilities, populism, disinformation, and the idea of deglobalization. These types of events may be interpretated either as antecedents of new and complex categories of risks or as stimulus for certain risks that have long been ignored. One central focus for worldwide policymakers is presently the country risk with all its components (sovereign risk, political risk, market risk, or systemic risk). Furthermore, due to the increase in public and private debt, the risks to which economies are exposed have multiplied. Is this the end of an era or just a temporary disequilibrium? This is one of the key questions among economists, academics, and policy makers around the world. The main purpose of this research is to analyse whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine negatively impacted the country risk of countries situated in the geographical proximity of the conflict area (Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Czechia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia), as well as to determine whether relevant macroeconomic indicators such as debt/GDP, GDP/capita, inflation, or trade openness were deteriorated due to the war. The findings of this research reveal that all the analysed macroeconomic indicators deteriorated as a consequence of the high degree of uncertainty concerning the future economic prospects of these countries, especially inflation and debt/GDP. The results also indicate that the country ratings of the investigated group of countries were severely impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although data corresponding for year 2023 show a slight improvement, the existing uncertainty continues to generate a disruptive effect on the markets.

Amy Hui-Mei Lin, Andrea Gómez-Maqueo

Strengthening food security, in places where land and natural resources are limited or no longer available, is challenging. This is especially true for the production of staple food carbohydrates. Unlike some alternative foods, such as cultured meats, producing food carbohydrates using conventional agri-food approaches requires many natural resources, which are not available in some regions such as Singapore. Therefore, we must develop new, sustainable methods to enhance the quantity and nutritional quality of foods rich in carbohydrates. In this article, we review current developments in food security in the city-state of Singapore and emphasize the essential role of food carbohydrates in the food security plan. We discuss technology developments (i.e., indoor vertical farming, urban farming) used to enhance crop quality and production. We also make a few recommendations such as exploring underutilized and unconventional crops that are resilient and nutrient-dense, identifying hidden resources in local ecosystems (i.e., revalorizing agri-food processing by-products), and producing alternative carbohydrates (i.e., microbial and synthetic carbohydrates). Experience and approaches developed in Singapore provide an example to other regions and may inspire creativity in securing food availability.

G. Kh. Batov, M. M. Kandrokova

Purpose: of the study is to substantiate the possibility of carrying out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the macroregion.Methods: the study used a systematic approach and the postulates of the modernization theory. The trend analysis was carried out with the help of statistical data. The predictive analytics methods were used to predict possible changes.Results: external shocks (economic crises and sanctions measures) to which the regions are exposed force them to adapt to a new condition and necessitate structural, spatial and technological modernization. The assessment of the structural state of the economy of the district based on the use of various statistical indicators revealed that the largest contribution to the creation of the regional domestic product is made by industries that belong to the non-manufacturing sector. There is nothing critical in this fact, but for lagging and problem regions, including the study district, it is most acceptable to ensure the dominance of industries in the manufacturing sector. It is possible to implement such an approach through structural, spatial and technological modernization.Many problems associated with changes in the structure of the economy are not solved due to the low technological base of enterprises in the real sector. Possible solutions to such problems are in the field of technological modernization and improving the quality of fixed capital. An important role in the implementation of these processes is assigned to the use of advanced technologies and special software products. To a greater extent, this applies to economic entities of the real sector, which form the framework of the economy.Conclusions and Relevance: the implementation of the modernization approach for the district is associated with certain problems. To solve them, it is possible to use various tools, including plans, strategies, programs, program-target management methods, and others. To carry out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the district, the most effective is the use of project management methods. The peculiarity of project management is that its methods can be adapted to the conditions of different regions, which differ in the parameters of socio-economic development.

Bronson Mutanda, Maireva Chrispen

The advent of digital financial technology left the business community and its clients celebrating convenient ways of online shopping, paying bills and money transfers. However, digital banking technology came with its share of challenges, due to highly digitalised economies in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, cyber fraudsters are increasingly targeting and leveraging on financial market infrastructures. Cyber security of banking institutions and the financial systems across the globe remains a major concern of Central Banks, investors, internal auditors and financial risk managers. The purpose of this research paper was to examine the efficacy of cyber fraud prevention measures used by commercial banks in Zimbabwe. The study also looked into the difficulties encountered in managing cyber-fraud. Results indicate that cyber fraud risk management strategies adopted by Commercial banks are partly effective which indicates existence of opportunities for cyber fraudsters to attacks and get away with it at the expense of clients, banks and the financial system as a whole. Results also indicate that Commercial banks are facing quite a number of challenges which include the following: lack of sophisticated systems, cyber attackers are always ahead, some of the clients do not take awareness messages send to them seriously, some clients share passwords and credit cards and lack of enough education and knowhow of employees. The study therefore concludes that, cyber fraud risk management strategies adopted by Commercial banks are partly effective. Monetary and fiscal authorities need to continue monitoring Commercial banks with regard to implementation of cyber security risk based supervision framework.

Wenxuan Zheng, Ruiding Li, Yang Zhou et al.

In the protein nutrition strategy of middle-aged and elderly people, some believe that low protein is good for health, while others believe high protein is good for health. Facing the contradictory situation, the following hypothesis is proposed. There is a process of change from lower to higher ratio of protein nutritional requirements that are good for health in the human body after about 50 years of age, and the age at which the switch occurs is around 65 years of age. Hence, in this study, 50, 25-month-old male rats were randomly divided into five groups: Control (basal diet), LP (low-protein diet with a 30% decrease in protein content compared to the basal diet), HP (high-protein diet with a 30% increase in protein content compared to the basal diet), Model 1 (switched from LP to HP feed at week 4), and Model 2 (switched from LP to HP feed at week 7). After a total of 10 weeks intervention, the liver and serum samples were examined for aging-related indicators, and a newly comprehensive quantitative score was generated using principal component analysis (PCA). The effects of the five protein nutritional modalities were quantified in descending order: Model 1 > HP > LP > Control > Model 2. Furthermore, the differential metabolites in serum and feces were determined by orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis, and 15 differential metabolites, significantly associated with protein intake, were identified by Spearman’s correlation analysis (p < 0.05). Among the fecal metabolites, 10 were positively correlated and 3 were negatively correlated. In the serum, tyrosine and lactate levels were positively correlated, and acetate levels were negatively correlated. MetaboAnalyst analysis identified that the metabolic pathways influenced by protein intake were mainly related to amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism. The results of metabolomic analysis elucidate the mechanisms underlying the preceding effects to some degree. These efforts not only contribute to a unified protein nutrition strategy but also positively impact the building of a wiser approach to protein nutrition, thereby helping middle-aged and older populations achieve healthy aging.