This quantitative study aims to examine the trends of live birth rates in Sleman Regency over a five-year period (2018-2022). The study utilizes birth data obtained from the Ministry of Home Affairs (Kemendagri). The analysis focuses exclusively on live birth data without considering socio-economic indicators or environmental factors. The findings indicate that Sleman Regency experienced significant fluctuations in fertility trends amidst global challenges, including the Covid-19 pandemic. Initially, the fertility environment was stable, with a slight increase in live births from 13,102 in 2018 to 13,354 in 2019. However, a notable decline to 11,702 live births was observed in 2021, followed by a robust rebound to 14,908 live births in 2022. The study highlights the resilience of Sleman Regency’s demographic dynamics in the face of global disruptions. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring and analysis of demographic data to anticipate and manage future demographic shifts. This research contributes to the demographic field by providing insights into the fluctuating fertility patterns in a specific region during a period marked by global disruptions.
Demography. Population. Vital events, Social sciences (General)
Natalie Spadafora, Jade Wang, Caroline Reid-Westoby
et al.
Introduction
Research to date has established that the COVID-19 pandemic has not impacted everyone equitably. Whether this unequitable impact was seen educationally with regards to educator reported barriers to distance learning, concerns and mental health is less clear.
Objective
The objective of this study was to explore the association between the neighbourhood composition of the school and kindergarten educator-reported barriers and concerns regarding children's learning during the first wave of COVID-19 related school closures in Ontario, Canada.
Methods
In the spring of 2020, we collected data from Ontario kindergarten educators (n = 2569; 74.2% kindergarten teachers, 25.8% early childhood educators; 97.6% female) using an online survey asking them about their experiences and challenges with online learning during the first round of school closures. We linked the educator responses to 2016 Canadian Census variables based on schools' postal codes. Bivariate correlations and Poisson regression analyses were used to determine if there was an association between neighbourhood composition and educator mental health, and the number of barriers and concerns reported by kindergarten educators.
Results
There were no significant findings with educator mental health and school neighbourhood characteristics. Educators who taught at schools in neighbourhoods with lower median income reported a greater number of barriers to online learning (e.g., parents/guardians not submitting assignments/providing updates on their child's learning) and concerns regarding the return to school in the fall of 2020 (e.g., students' readjustment to routines). There were no significant associations with educator reported barriers or concerns and any of the other Census neighbourhood variables (proportion of lone parent families, average household size, proportion of population that do no speak official language, proportion of population that are recent immigrants, or proportion of population ages 0-4).
Conclusions
Overall, our study suggests that the neighbourhood composition of the children's school location did not exacerbate the potential negative learning experiences of kindergarten students and educators during the COVID-19 pandemic, although we did find that educators teaching in schools in lower-SES neighbourhoods reported more barriers to online learning during this time. Taken together, our study suggests that remediation efforts should be focused on individual kindergarten children and their families as opposed to school location.
Background
Infant breastfeeding has been associated with reduced incidence of childhood physical and mental health problems. This study investigated relationships between infant feeding methods and the risk of Special Educational Need (SEN).
Methods
A retrospective population cohort of schoolchildren in Scotland was constructed by linking together health (maternity, birth, and health visitor records) and education (annual school pupil census) databases. Inclusion was restricted to singleton children, born in Scotland from 2004 onwards with available breastfeeding data and who attended local authority mainstream or special schools between 2009 and 2013. Generalised estimating equation models with a binomial distribution and logit link function investigated associations between infant feeding method at 6–8 weeks and any-cause and cause-specific SEN, adjusting for sociodemographic and maternity factors.
Findings
Of 191 745 children meeting inclusion criteria, 126 907 (66·2%) were formula-fed, 48 473 (25·3%) exclusively breastfed, and 16 365 (8·5%) mixed fed. Overall, 23 141 (12·1%) children required SEN. Compared with formula feeding, mixed feeding and exclusive breastfeeding were associated with decreased any-cause SEN (OR 0·90, 95% CI 0·84–0·95; and 0·78, 0·75–0·82), and SEN attributed to learning disabilities (0·75, 0·65–0·87; and 0·66, 0·59–0·74), and learning difficulties (0·85, 0·77–0·94; and 0·75, 0·70–0·81). Compared with formula feeding, exclusively breastfed children had less communication problems (0·81, 0·74–0·88), social-emotional-behavioural difficulties (0·77, 0·70–0·84), sensory impairments (0·79, 0·65–0·95), physical motor disabilities (0·78, 0·66–0·91), and physical health conditions (0·74, 0·63–0·87). Feeding method was not significantly associated with mental health conditions or autism.
Interpretation
Many women struggle to exclusively breastfeed for the full 6 months recommended by WHO; however, this study provides evidence that a shorter duration of nonexclusive breastfeeding could nonetheless be beneficial with regard to the development of SEN.
<b>Objective</b>: Ample research demonstrates that experiencing parental death or divorce harms children's educational attainment. Less is known about variation herein, both between parental death and divorce and across social contexts. We investigated how family and national cont¬exts moderate the educational consequences of these adverse events. At the family level, we studied whether the educational consequences of parental death and divorce are larger for children of higher-educated parents. At the national level, we investigated the buffering role of welfare benefits as well as the amplifying impact of a selective educational system and the divorce rate. Moreover, we examined the interplay between family and country contexts. <b>Results</b>: Using multilevel regression models with data from 17 countries from the Generations and Gender Survey, we found that parental divorce had a larger impact than parental death. Furthermore, the impact of parental divorce was largest for children of higher-educated parents. Less selective educational systems and provision of single-parent benefits reduced the educational consequences of parental death, specifically for children of lower-educated parents. <b>Conclusions</b>: Our results indicate that although both parental death and divorce harm children's educational attainment, their impacts differ across family and country contexts. The consequences of divorce strongly depend on the resources available in a family, while the effects of parental death are mitigated by educational and welfare policies. <b>Contribution</b>: Our study underscores the relevance of differentiating between specific adverse events and considering the social context to understand the consequences of adversity for children's educational attainment.
Background Accurate inference of demographic histories for temperate tree species can aid our understanding of current climate change as a driver of evolution. Microsatellites are more suitable for inferring recent historical events due to their high mutation rates. However, most programs analyzing microsatellite data assume a strict stepwise mutation model (SMM), which could cause false detection of population shrinkage when microsatellite mutation does not follow SMM. Results This study aims to reconstruct the recent demographic histories of five cool-temperate tree species in Eastern Asia, Quercus mongolica , Q. liaotungensis , Juglans cathayensis , J. mandshurica and J. ailantifolia , by using 19 microsatellite markers with two methods considering generalized stepwise mutation model (GSM) (MIGRAINE and VarEff). Both programs revealed that all the five species experienced expansions after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Within butternuts, J. cathayensis experienced a more serious bottleneck than the other species, and within oaks, Q. mongolica showed a moderate increase in population size and remained stable after the expansion. In addition, the point estimates of the multistep mutation proportion in the GSM model ( p GSM ) for all five species were between 0.50 and 0.65, indicating that when inferring population demographic history of the cool-temperate forest species using microsatellite markers, it is better to assume a GSM rather than a SMM. Conclusions This study provides the first direct evidence that five cool-temperate tree species in East Asia have experienced expansions after the LGM with microsatellite data. Considering the mutation model of microsatellite has a vital influence on demographic inference, combining multiple programs such as MIGRAINE and VarEff can effectively reduce errors caused by inappropriate model selection and prior setting.
Kaitlyn M. Reintsma, Alan Harrington, Victoria J. Dreitz
Human impacts on natural resources increasingly necessitate understanding of the demographic rates driving wildlife population trends. Breeding productivity in many avian species is the demographic parameter that primarily influences population fluctuations. Nest density is a vital component of breeding productivity despite the fact that it is most often inferred exclusively from nest success. Unfortunately, locating every nest in a given area to determine nest density is often not feasible and can be biased by measurement error. The availability of a nest to be detected and the probability it will be detected during nest searching are two prominent sources of measurement error. A time-to-event nest density estimator has been developed that, unlike standard distance sampling methods, accounts for availability and can use nest data from outside structured surveys routinely collected to assess nest success. Its application is currently limited to Anseriformes, so we evaluated the general applicability of the time-to-event estimator in the order Passeriformes. To do this, we compared estimates of nest detection rate and nest density from the time-to-event estimator to distance sampling methods for 42 Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri) nests monitored in 2015. The time-to-event estimator produced similar but more precise nest detection and density estimates than distance sampling methods.
Infant mortality is a major component in determining the health and well-being of a community in a country. Indonesia Health Demographic Survey in 2012 shows that infant mortality rate in Indonesia is 32 babies per 1000 live births. Infant mortality rate in eastern Java is 26 babies per 1000 live births. Infant mortality is caused by external factors and internal factors. Parity, gestational distance and birth attendant are the factors chosen to be analyzed. The objectives of the study were to analyze the relationship of parity, birth spacing and birth attendant to infant mortality rate in East Java. The type of research that is analytical research using non-reactive approach. The study took the data of the 2012 IDHS Female Woman Never married. Sampling followed the 2012 IDHS plus inclusion criteria from the researchers. The number of samples of the study was 591 mothers with a history of dead infants during the survey. The study took the data of the 2012 SDKI Female Woman Never married. Data analysis was done by multiple logistic regression. The results of the simple logistic regression analyzes have shown an association between parity> 2 children, birth attendants instead by a health professional, pregnancy spacing ≤ 4 years and spacing of pregnancy> 4 years. All independent variables entered as a candidate for the multiple logistic regression analysis of the results of the multiple logistic regression analysis was parity shows, their relationship with infant mortality with p value = 0.001, but at birth attendant with a p value of 0.66. Screening risks of pregnant mothers and handling of ill toddlers by midwives and IEC to mothers about nutrition, pregnancy care and infant care through counseling, leaflets and posters.
Background with rationale
Spending time in green-blue spaces (GBS) is beneficial for mental health and wellbeing. There are few longitudinal studies, and definitions of GBS differ within academic studies and between policy, practice and research.
Main Aim
Quantify the impact of longitudinal exposure to GBS on wellbeing and common mental health disorders, for a national population (2008-2018) for use in a population-wide natural experiment.
Methods
We co-produced a GBS typology with planners and policy makers at a day-long workshop using validated public participation methods. Using this typology, we built a national, longitudinal GBS dataset created from local government audits and satellite data for 1.4 million homes in Wales, UK.
Results
produced a nested national typology to define GBS that built on previous academic literature and considered policy and local government planning priorities. The typology differentiated between inland and coastal GBS and facilities available at the GBS e.g. benches, public toilets etc. We created a national, longitudinal dataset of GBS and a cross-sectional dataset of household-level access to GBS for 2018. Access to GBS varied by socio-economic status, urban/rural classification and type of GBS.
Conclusion
We worked with policy and planners to produce a typology that will enable us to translate our findings to be used in evidence based policy and planning. We will use the dataset to create quarterly household access to GBS for eleven years (2008-2018). We will link GBS access scores to individual level mental health for 1.7 million people with primary care data and survey data (n = ~12,000) on wellbeing. The results from the wider study will inform the planning and management of GBS in urban and rural environments and contribute to international work on impacts of the built environment on mental health and wellbeing.
The paper focuses on the territorial differentiation of socio-economic development of Poland between the years 2002-2014 and on geographic patterns of this differentiation at the level of Polish subregions (NUTS 3). Nine partial indicators entering the composite indicator and also the average base index are applied. The analysis of the socio-economic development of the subregions along the directional east-west gradient, rural-urban concentric gradients (around big cities) and the sub-bands of subregions along the border of Poland with the surrounding countries is used to explain the observed differentiation. Polish subregions underwent considerable development between 2002 and 2014, but the territorial differentiation of their development changed only partially. The big Polish cities and also their suburban subregions have the best position of all; the worst are still the rural subregions of eastern Poland and the inner peripheries of Poland. The directional east-west gradient, the rural-urban concentric gradients, as well as the higher development of subregions along the German, Czech and sea borders were confirmed.
ABSTRACT
Objective
To quantify variation in emergency admission rates between all New Zealand general practices and to investigate the influence of patients with long-term conditions.
Approach
This retrospective cohort study linked three national data collection. The Primary Health Organisation (PHO) Enrolment Collection provided practice register data on age sex ethnicity and deprivation. The National Minimum Dataset for Hospital Events (NMDS) allowed access to discharge data. The national Pharmaceutical Collection enabled medicine use to provide a proxy measures of patient morbidity.
Expected emergency admission rates for each practice in 2014 were calculated using indirect standardisation with the total registered patient population of all study practices as the reference population. A standardised emergency admission ratio (SAR) of the actual admission rate to the expected admission rate was calculated for each practice.
Result
Over the fourteen year period 2001-2014 total emergency admissions from all causes in New Zealand increased by 42%. Arranged and waiting list admissions increased by 29% over the same period. Emergency admissions represented 54% of all admissions by 2014 and increased by 56%.
Patients with hospital diagnoses for long-term conditions accounted for 56.5% of all emergency admissions and 78.6% of all associated bed days. More females had unplanned admissions than males (p<0.001, 95% CI 0.48%-0.59%) and more Maori (p<0.001, 95% CI 1.33%-1.49%) and Pacific Island patients (p<0.001, 95% CI 0.96%-1.17%) were admitted than Europeans. Increasing deprivation status was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of admission (p<0.001; chi-squared test for trend).
Practices with the highest SARs in 2014 tended to have the highest admission rates in that year and in previous years. They also had high admission rates for both high and low risk patient groups.
Conclusion
This study indicates that there is considerable variation in the emergency admission rates of New Zealand general practices and in their standardised emergency admission rates after adjusting for differences in patient demography. A more meaningful measure of true disease morbidity is required to understand more the role ‘models of care’ play in the degree of variation of emergency admission.
Keywords: Emergency Admission, practice variation, primary care, New Zealand
ARIMA was one of a forecasting method of time series if independent variable be ignored, it would use the past and present value as a dependent variable. The accuracy of ARIMA forecasting method was good to produce short-term forecasting. The advantages of ARIMA method than other method was this method didn’t require the data pattern so it could be used for all kinds of data pattern, so it could be applied in cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Mulyorejo Public Health Center. This study was to determine the best forecasting model as well as to predict and analyze the results of forecasting number of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Mulyorejo Public Health Center. The data was monthly number of dengue hemorrhagic fever patients in Mulyorejo Public Health Center from January 2010 to February 2016 (a total of 74 plots data). The results were the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Mulyorejo Public Health Center could be predicted with ARIMA model (1,0,0), thought based on diagnostics test the ARIMA model met all tests but the forecasting number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in years 2016–2017 showed a downward trend, and in 2017 was fl at, while MAPE and MAE amounted to 63.026% and 1.89%, the value of the error was large enough which indicated that less accurate forecasting. DHF data had a lot of missing data caused big value of MAPE and MAE so must be transformed by series mean method. DHF data was trend and seasonal so winters exponential smoothing with ordinary least square was better than ARIMA to get small error.
ABSTRACT
Objective
Failing to graduate high school is linked to many risk factors, including family history academic achievement. This research examines how important an older sibling’s academic achievement is in predicting whether a younger sibling will graduate high school.
Method
This study used linkable administrative databases housed at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy (MCHP). The cohort consists of 33,843 individuals born in Manitoba between April 1, 1983 and March 31, 1994, who stayed in the province until at least their 20th birthday, had at least one older sibling, and had no missing values on key variables. Logistic regression, controlling for a variety of confounders, is used to determine how much having an older sibling who didn’t graduate high school impacts the odds of a younger sibling not graduating high school.
Results
The adjusted odds of not graduating high school within 6 years of entering grade nine for individuals who had at least one older sibling who did not graduate high school was 4.81 (p < 0.0001, 95% CI 4.4-5.2) times higher than for individuals whose older sibling(s) graduated high school. Individuals living in low income neighborhoods at birth or age 18, individuals living in rural northern Manitoba at birth or age 18, and individuals who moved before age 18 were significantly less likely to finish high school. High school graduation rates for those living in the lowest income quintile at age 18 whose older siblings graduated high school were higher than those living in the highest income quintile at age 18 and had at least one older sibling who did not graduate high school.
Conclusion
The influence of an older sibling’s educational achievement has significant implications for younger siblings’ odds of high school graduation. This is likely due to social learning (younger sibling modeling actions of older sibling), and the shared parental influence and social risk experienced by both siblings.
Como caso de migración sur-sur se analizan las poblaciones de origen boliviano y peruano residentes en la ciudad de Córdoba, con la hipótesis del mayor peso explicativo de factores relacionales respecto de las diferencias de desarrollo entre las regiones de origen y destino. Se comparan la estructura demográfica, la inserción educativa y la distribución espacial de las dos poblaciones entre los censos nacionales de 2001 y 2010. Por razones de disponibilidad de los datos la inserción ocupacional sólo se describe en el censo de 2001, y a través de los antecedentes por medio de encuestas para el periodo siguiente. Se concluye que el atractivo de Córdoba se debe más a los vínculos históricos que estos dos colectivos migrantes han forjado con la ciudad que al nivel de desarrollo económico o social de ésta.
Human settlements. Communities, Demography. Population. Vital events
Background The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data. Objective To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action. Design Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner. Results Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system. Conclusions The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.