Hasil untuk "Capital. Capital investments"

N. Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo

R. Heinkel, A. Kraus, J. Zechner

Kangkang Li, Wardhaugh Leigh, P. Feron et al.

Heng An, Yanyan Chen, Danglun Luo et al.

Ni Wang, Diego A. Tejada-Arango

This paper reviews discounting approaches for modeling multi-year energy investments, focusing on total versus annualised cost formulations. We discuss how time value of money is handled, and how salvage value and milestone-year weighting can address mismatches between asset lifetimes and model horizons. These methods are implemented in the open-source TulipaEnergyModel to support transparent and tractable long-term energy system planning.

Davit Gondauri, Ekaterine Mikautadze

The research and development (R&D) phase is essential for fostering innovation and aligns with long-term strategies in both public and private sectors. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) assessing the relationship between R&D investments and GDP through regression analysis, and (2) estimating the economic value added (EVA) that Georgia must generate to progress from a BB to a BBB credit rating. Using World Bank data from 2014-2022, this analysis found that increasing R&D, with an emphasis on AI, by 30-35% has a measurable impact on GDP. Regression results reveal a coefficient of 7.02%, indicating a 10% increase in R&D leads to a 0.70% GDP rise, with an 81.1% determination coefficient and a strong 90.1% correlation. Georgia's EVA model was calculated to determine the additional value needed for a BBB rating, comparing indicators from Greece, Hungary, India, and Kazakhstan as benchmarks. Key economic indicators considered were nominal GDP, GDP per capita, real GDP growth, and fiscal indicators (government balance/GDP, debt/GDP). The EVA model projects that to achieve a BBB rating within nine years, Georgia requires $61.7 billion in investments. Utilizing EVA and comprehensive economic indicators will support informed decision-making and enhance the analysis of Georgia's economic trajectory.

Alastair Langtry

This paper presents a new rationale for a self-interested economic elite voluntarily extending property rights. When agents make endogenous investment decisions, there is a commitment problem. Ex-post, the elite face strong incentives to expropriate investments from the non-elite (who don't have property rights), which dissuades investment. Extending property rights to new groups can resolve this problem, even for those not given property rights, by making public good provision more attractive to the elite. Unlike other models of franchise extensions, extending property rights in this paper does not involve the elite ceding control to others. Rather, it changes the incentives they face. Additionally, adding identity groups to the model shows that an elite faces weaker incentives to resolve the commitment problem when it is part of a minority identity -- identity fragmentation makes it harder for a society to extend property rights.

Maria-Eugenia Cardenal, Octavio-David Diaz-Santana, Sara-Maria Gonzalez-Betancor

Purpose: The teacher role in the classroom can explain important aspects of the student's school experience. The teacher-student relationship, a central dimension of social capital, influences students' engagement, and the teaching style plays an important role in student outcomes. But there is scarce literature that links teaching styles to teacher-student relationship. This article aims to: 1) analyze whether there is a relationship between teaching styles and the type of relationship perceived by students; 2) test whether this relationship is equally strong for any teaching style; and 3) determine the extent to which students' perceptions vary according to their profile. Design/methodology/approach: A structural equation model with four latent variables is estimated: two for the teacher-student relationship (emotional vs. educational) and two for the teaching styles (directive vs. participative), with information for 21126 sixth-grade primary-students in 2019 in Spain. Findings: Teacher-student relationships and teaching styles are interconnected. The participative style implies a better relationship. The perceptions of the teacher are heterogeneous, depending on gender (girls perceive clearer than boys) and with the educational background (children from lower educational background perceive both types of teaching styles more clearly). Originality/value: The analysis is based on the point of view of the addressee of the teacher's work, i.e. the student. It provides a model that can be replicated in any other education system. The latent variables, based on a periodically administered questionnaire, could be estimated with data from diagnostic assessments in other countries, which in turn would allow the formulation of context-specific educational policy proposals that take into account student feedback.

Alice Da Fonseca, Peter Lake, Ariana Barrenechea

This project is a collaboration between industry and academia to delve into Finance Social Networks, specifically the Board of Directors of public companies. Knowing the connections between Directors and Executives in different companies can generate powerful stories and meaningful insights on investments. A proof of concept in the form of a Data Visualization tool reveals its strength in investigating corporate governance and sustainability, as well as in the partnership between industry and academic institutions.

Bahman Khanalizadeh, Ashkan Rahimzadeh, Mohammad Dalmanpour et al.

The main objective of this article is to investigate the impact of various financial, economic, and political risks and economic complexity on the development of the Sukuk market in the Iranian economy. The data required to conduct this research based on the variables of the proposed model were used from the Capital Market Central Asset Management Company, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) database, and the MIT University website. The data relating to 2010-2022 is seasonal, and REVIEWS 13 software was used. The model estimation results using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach (NARDL) show that the negative shock of political risk reduces the development of the Sukuk market in the short and long term. The negative shock of financial risk in the long term has a negative impact on the development of the Sukuk market. The negative shock of economic complexity reduces the development of the Sukuk market in the short term. The positive shocks of political risk, financial risk, economic risk, and economic complexity in the short and long term led to the development of the Sukuk market. Among the three types of risk, political risk and financial risk have the most impact on sukuk market development. The error correction coefficient in this estimate is negative and statistically significant, which shows that 0.42% of the short-term imbalance is adjusted to reach the long-term balance every year.

Minoo Khanzadeh, Fazel Moridi Farimani, Parviz Davoodi et al.

Purpose: In Iran (as a resource base country), despite the acceptance of the need to diversify production activities, the planned industrial upgrade did not take place, and the lack of clear industrial strategy, especially in resource-oriented production chains, and the lack of chain attitudes to activities and an introspective viewpoint to the development of activities have sometimes prevented production chains from becoming intertwined. This is while the resource-based industrial development strategy suggests the resource-based countries to move towards the downstream of the chains and increase the economic scale by joining the regional and international value chains. Therefore, identifying the activities in a chain is very important because it gives the politician more power to analyse the situation and helps to make decisions. Also, since the input-output tables are used to analyse the economic structure, the APL method is used to understand the importance of production activities. The main goal of the current research is to examine the changes in the economic distance between economic activities and the structural changes of Iran's economy by using the Average Propagation Length Method and the input-output tables of 1999, 2004, 2010 and 2016 (the last available table) of Central Bank. The purpose is to know the production chains and examine the changes of production activities with chain attitudes over time. Methodology: The economy is divided into several activities, and each activity buys products from and sells products to other activities. The output of an industry consists of inter-industrial deliveries to final demand categories like export, consumption and investments. The added value used in each activity also includes service compensation, net tax and mixed incomes, etc. In this research, first all the four input-output tables are calculated based on the constant prices of 2016. Because calculating APL index needs internal tables, imports were derived from the main tables, and internal tables were obtained. Finally by using Average Propagation Length method, the production chains in terms of the upstream and downstream positions of the chains were identified.Findings and discussion: Based on the results, Table 1 can be analyzed in two ways, in rows and in columns. When they are analyzed in columns, the activities can be classified in terms of upstream and downstream, and structural changes can be visualized when they are analyzed in rows.The activities of planting crops, raising animals and forestry in agricultural chains are upstream activities and the rest of the activities of these chains, including the production of food and beverage, the production of textiles and clothing, the production of leather, wood, paper and furniture are downstream activities.In mining-oriented activities, the basic resource activities include crude oil and natural gas extraction, extraction of other mines and production of petroleum products are upstream activities. The production of chemical materials and products, production of basic metals and production non-metallic minerals are intermediate activities. The activities of producing rubber and plastic, production of fabric metal products, production of machinery and equipment, production of electrical equipment, production of vehicles, and production of computer-electronic and optical products are downstream activities.The development of production activities from 1999 to 2016 was more focused on mining. From 2004 to 2010, the inter-sectoral relations among production chains in Iran was weakened, and this weakness showed itself mostly in the downstream part of chains (rubber and plastic, electrical equipment and machinery and equipment). Since the activities of mining (oil and other mines), production of non-metallic minerals and production of petroleum products have short backward linkages and long forward linkages, they have always been the attention of politicians. On the other hand, due to longer backward links and shorter forward links of downstream activities like rubber and plastic, metal products, and machinery and equipment are generally not considered by policymakers for development. But in order to create more value added, increase employment and reduce the export of raw and semi-raw products, it is necessary to move towards the development of downstream activities on the production chains with the resource-based industrial development strategy. The results show that the production chains in agriculture and mining (oil and other mines) do not have strong connections within the chain, and three separate chains have been formed, which has resulted in the isolation of production chains.Conclusions and policy implications: From the strengthening and weakening of the links between different activities during the studied years, it can be concluded that the necessity of choosing the industrial development policy is clearly evident. Due to the limitation of capital, knowledge, etc. in Iran, the development of activities is of an unbalanced type of growth, and the policymaker should prioritize the development of chains towards the downstream side. Therefore, it is suggested that, while completing the missing links of the production chains towards the downstream activities, it is better to starts with the mining-oriented chains and then complete the agriculture-oriented chains.

Rana Abbasgholi Nezhad Asbaghi, Hosein Samsami

Some monetary policymakers attribute the persistent high inflation in Iran’s economy solely to the lack of central bank independence, arguing that granting the central bank autonomy is necessary to reduce inflation. However, empirical studies reveal that central bank independence faces significant structural challenges due to the endogeneity of money within Iran’s economic system. This article aimed to identify the key components of requirements of central bank independence, with a particular focus on the government structure in Iran’s economy. A comprehensive review of existing literature on central bank independence was conducted. Moreover, a grounded theory approach was used to achieve theoretical saturation concerning central bank independence in Iran. Then, the study relied on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and analyzed 21 variables to identify the key factors defining the requirements of central bank independence in Iran. The findings highlighted several key factors, including the deviation of the effective exchange rate from the appropriate exchange rate, the government budget deficit, oil revenues, and the government effectiveness index. Furthermore, the results suggested that increasing central bank independence alone, within the context of variables contributing to endogeneity of money under Iran’s current economic conditions, has a weak and fragile effect. Thus, it is essential to undertake structural reforms targeting these critical variables as a prerequisite to meaningful discussions and efforts toward central bank independence.IntroductionThe theory of time inconsistency proposed by Kydland and Prescott (1977) posits that central bank independence can reduce inflation rates without incurring economic costs while enhancing stability by lowering inflationary expectations. However, several empirical studies (e.g., Bauman et al., 2021) emphasize that the effectiveness of central bank independence depends on the unique structural and institutional characteristics of each country. As a result, central bank independence is not a universal solution and may vary depending on the specific structural conditions of each economy. The relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates can significantly differ when structural and institutional factors deviate from the ideal. Iran’s economy has recently undergone substantial fluctuations in inflation rates. Some monetary policymakers attribute these high inflation levels solely to the lack of central bank independence, asserting that greater independence is necessary to control inflation. However, structural factors unique to Iran’s economy complicate this view. Issues such as an inefficient tax system, reliance on oil revenues, underdeveloped financial markets, exchange rate markets, and the quality of governance indicate that money is largely determined endogenously. These structural challenges undermine the effective implementation of central bank independence as a tool to reduce inflation and promote economic growth. Given these complexities, the present study sought to identify the key components necessary for central bank independence within Iran’s economic system. Focusing on the government structure, the study employed a grounded theory approach and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to identify the requirements for central bank independence in Iran.Materials and MethodsThis research identified categories related to central bank independence by reviewing the existing literature. It used a grounded theory approach to achieve theoretical saturation. As a result, four key categories were identified: the exchange rate market, the government budgeting system, the quality of governance, and the central bank independence. Specific variables were analyzed within each subcategory to uncover the robust components influencing central bank independence in Iran’s economy. To collect data for the analysis, the study used reliable sources, including databases from the Central Bank of Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran, and the World Bank. The concept of central bank independence was treated as a dependent variable, consistent with the methodology proposed by Giannone et al. (2011) and informed by studies such as Rogoff (2019) and Baumann et al. (2021). These studies define the concept in terms of liquidity under optimal conditions. The variables were tested for their significance and intensity of influence on the dependent variable, allowing for the identification of those that retained their effects even when other variables were included in the model.Results and DiscussionThe results presented in Table 1 are based on coefficient calculations and posterior probabilities from 340,000 regressions. They helped identify four variables as statistically robust and non-fragile even when accounting for the presence of all other variables. These variables included the deviation of the effective exchange rate from the appropriate exchange rate, the government budget deficit, oil revenues, and the government effectiveness index. The result is supported by their posterior probabilities, which exceed the prior probability threshold of 50%, as assumed under the uniform distribution in the Bayesian model selection (BMS) method.Table 1. The Results of the Sampling Process and BMS Estimation Calculations based on 340 Thousand RegressionsA proportion of regressions withCond. Pos. SignPost SDPost MeanPIPSymbol 0.9910.09870.54240.9999DEA10.9710.14890.50730.9880BDG20.9110.03950.11060.9417GOR30.8500.0554-0.10400.8832EFG40.610.99990.03890.02360.3293COC50.580.01981.0681-0.57120.2869RET60.560.88091.05530.56240.2839REO70.560.92340.25230.13440.2786REG80.280.89960.00480.00110.1355BAC90.250.09150.0733-0.01200.1247CUK100.210.14430.0777-0.00510.1219MAT110.200.28310.0411-0.00080.0970GRI120.180.35270.0634-0.00590.0899DUM130.190.86900.00650.00130.0890UR140.170.99800.00310.00070.0875EC150.150.21920.1140-0.00740.0805TINF160.140.49550.0148-0.00150.0787ECI170.150.15390.0088-0.00120.0676RLA180.130.12760.0179-0.00210.0610DECM190.120.83750.00550.00060.0594HI200.090.90910.00340.00030.0549UNC21* Source: Research resultsThe weighted average of posterior coefficients further revealed that the variable representing the deviation of the effective exchange rate from the appropriate exchange rate is the most influential in the model, exerting the strongest positive effect in terms of intensity. Following this, the government budget deficit, oil revenues, and the government effectiveness index ranked as the next most significant variables, respectively, based on their influence coefficients.  Yet, the results indicated that in the presence of all variables, central bank independence indices (i.e., GRI, CUK, MAT, and DUM) are fragile and statistically insignificant. This is due to their lower posterior probabilities of inclusion compared to the prior probability, underscoring their limited relevance within the model.ConclusionSince central bank independence indices lose significance when the four key components are considered, simply enhancing central bank independence is not a viable long-term solution under the current conditions of Iran’s economy characterized by the endogeneity of money. Therefore, during the transition phase, policymakers must prioritize structural reforms in several key areas: reforming the government budgeting system, improving governance with a focus on efficiency and effectiveness, and developing a competitive foreign exchange market capable of establishing an optimal and efficient exchange rate. Only after addressing these foundational issues should efforts to enhance central bank independence proceed, supported by a robust legal framework and coordinated collaboration with the government.

Yuri Kabanov, Platon Promyslov

This note is a complement to the paper by Eberlein, Kabanov, and Schmidt on the asymptotic of the ruin probability in a Sparre Andersen non-life insurance model with investments a risky asset whose price follows a geometric Lévy process. Using the techniques of semi-Markov processes we extend the result of the mentioned paper to the case of annuities and models with two-sided jumps.

Oleksandr Dobrodomov, Yurii Tkachov

Efficient cost reduction in experimental production requires a comprehensive approach and consideration of specific conditions and possibilities of the enterprise. Automation, robotization, the use of universal numerically controlled machines, and the implementation of other advanced technologies in the context of the mentioned production can result in significant initial investments and a substantial increase in product costs in the early stages. However, in the long-term perspective, such an approach undoubtedly leads to a decrease in overall expenses. Despite its advantages, at the early stages of innovative projects, particularly in the field of mechanical engineering, costs associated with increased fixed assets are practically unacceptable due to the lack of financial resources. Experimental production exhibits all the characteristics of a single-unit production. If we open any textbook on mechanical engineering technology, we can read something like this: the main features of single-unit production include a low probability of product repetition, the use of versatile equipment, and highly skilled workers. It is clear that the higher the level of automation, the greater the initial capital investments, but the lower the labor costs due to a reduction in the number of production personnel. The aim of this study is to explore the potential use of elastomeric materials specifically for addressing the aforementioned production challenges. Elastomers are synthetic materials with predictable and controllable properties. They are a combination of polymer materials, mineral components, various rubbers, plasticizers, solvents, catalysts, antioxidants, stabilizers, lubricants, dyes, and others.

Radojko Lukić

The issue of analyzing factors of the dynamics of the economic performance of every economy, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), is continuously very current, challenging, significant, and complex. An adequate control of the key factors can significantly influence the achievement of the target economic performance of BiH’s economy. The application of multi-criteria decision-making methods enables an adequate control of the key factors of the economic performance of BiH’s economy. Bearing that in mind, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the economic performance of BiH’s economy in the period 2013 - 2022 based on the DIBR and MAIRCA methods. The top five years of the economic performance of BiH’s economy according to the DIBR and MAIRCA methods fall in the following order: 2021, 2022, 2018, 2019, and 2017. The worst economic performance in BiH’s economy was registered in 2020, which was contributed, among other things, by the Covid-19 pandemic. Generally speaking, the economic performance of BiH’s economy significantly improved recently. This was influenced by adequate management of the analyzed statistical variables (gross domestic product, inflation, agriculture, industry, export, import, capital, income, taxes, time required to start business – days, and domestic loans provided by the financial sector). The factors such as the geopolitical situation, the economic climate, foreign direct investments, the energy crisis, the digitalization of company's entire operation, the application of sustainable development concept and other others are also important. In any case, the adequate control of these variables can greatly influence the achievement of the target economic performance of BiH’s economy.

Budakov Alexey, Safronova Natalia, Nikolaev Alexander Alexandrovich et al.

Building renovation is one of the industries with the largest investment gap. To achieve the proposed climate target of 55% by 2030 in the EU, additional investments of around €275 billion will be required annually. In the housing sector, the lack of simple, attractive and easily accessible state incentives for renovation and the absence of common financial products are often the main obstacles. The experience of energy-efficient renovation in European countries allows for calculated decisions when modeling housing policy and achieving sustainable development goals. To support this, some countries have already introduced minimum common efficiency requirements that apply from a certain date or at certain points in the building's life cycle. Such requirements form the basis of companies' expectations and work best along with reliable energy performance certificates and reliable financing. As for residential buildings, insufficient understanding of energy consumption and energy saving is seen as an important barrier for more participants in open public consultations on renovation work than any other obstacle. Various interests of building owners and users, differences in opinions among different owners, and difficulties in planning renovation work are also major obstacles to the formation of sustainable cities and settlements.

F. Black

Masud Alam

This study examines how housing sector volatilities affect real estate investment trust (REIT) equity return in the United States. I argue that unexpected changes in housing variables can be a source of aggregate housing risk, and the first principal component extracted from the volatilities of U.S. housing variables can predict the expected REIT equity returns. I propose and construct a factor-based housing risk index as an additional factor in asset price models that uses the time-varying conditional volatility of housing variables within the U.S. housing sector. The findings show that the proposed housing risk index is economically and theoretically consistent with the risk-return relationship of the conditional Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Merton (1973), which predicts an average maximum of 5.6 percent of risk premium in REIT equity return. In subsample analyses, the positive relationship is not affected by sample periods' choice but shows higher housing risk beta values for the 2009-18 sample period. The relationship remains significant after controlling for VIX, Fama-French three factors, and a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the proposed housing beta also accurately forecasts U.S. macroeconomic and financial conditions.

Samuel Palmer, Serkan Sahin, Rodrigo Hernandez et al.

In this paper we show how to implement in a simple way some complex real-life constraints on the portfolio optimization problem, so that it becomes amenable to quantum optimization algorithms. Specifically, first we explain how to obtain the best investment portfolio with a given target risk. This is important in order to produce portfolios with different risk profiles, as typically offered by financial institutions. Second, we show how to implement individual investment bands, i.e., minimum and maximum possible investments for each asset. This is also important in order to impose diversification and avoid corner solutions. Quite remarkably, we show how to build the constrained cost function as a quadratic binary optimization (QUBO) problem, this being the natural input of quantum annealers. The validity of our implementation is proven by finding the optimal portfolios, using D-Wave Hybrid and its Advantage quantum processor, on portfolios built with all the assets from S&P100 and S&P500. Our results show how practical daily constraints found in quantitative finance can be implemented in a simple way in current NISQ quantum processors, with real data, and under realistic market conditions. In combination with clustering algorithms, our methods would allow to replicate the behaviour of more complex indexes, such as Nasdaq Composite or others, in turn being particularly useful to build and replicate Exchange Traded Funds (ETF).

Syed Rahim, Muntasir Murshed, Sukru Umarbeyli et al.

This study aims to analyze the effects of natural resources, human capital, financial development, industrialization, technological progress, and international trade on the economic growth of the Next Eleven countries between 1990 and 2019. The novelty of this study lies in its approach to explore the indirect economic growth impacts of human capital development via the transmission channel of the natural resource utilization in these counties. The econometric methods involved are robust for accounting the cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity concerns in the data. The results authenticate the resource curse hypothesis since higher natural resources rent are found to inhibit economic growth of the Next Eleven nations. In contrast, human capital development, financial development, industrialization, technological innovation and international trade participation are found to synthesize economic growth. Besides, another interesting finding in this study shows that human capital and natural resources jointly exert positive impacts on economic growth. Hence, it can be said that human capital development assists to mitigate the resource curse impacts in the case of the Next Eleven countries. Therefore, these findings necessitate the pertinence of boosting investments in human capital development, enhancing the strength of the financial sector, expediting industrialization, facilitating technological innovation, and amplifying international trade volumes for achieving higher economic growth in the Next Eleven countries. More importantly, human capital development should be prioritized for transforming the curse of the natural resources into blessing for these nations.