Factors Influencing Customers’ Adoption of Electronic Banking Services in commercial banks
Nahla Kadri
This study aims to examine the key determinants influencing customers' adoption of electronic banking services in commercial banks operating in Ouargla, Algeria, as well as to assess the impact of these factors on adoption levels. To achieve the research objectives, a descriptive-analytical methodology was employed, utilizing a structured questionnaire as the primary data collection tool. A random sample of 130 customers of commercial banks in Ouargla was selected During the year 2024 , resulting in a final sample of 101 valid responses, representing 77.69% of the total distributed questionnaires. The data were analyzed using SPSS v.21, employing statistical techniques such as Cronbach’s Alpha for reliability analysis, descriptive statistics (mean and standard deviation), simple linear regression equations, and the five-point Likert scale to evaluate customer responses. The findings indicate a high level of electronic banking adoption among customers of commercial banks in Ouargla, with a mean score of 3.84, which corresponds to a high adoption level according to the study’s measurement scale (five-point Likert scale). Furthermore, the study identified several significant factors influencing electronic banking adoption. Confidentiality and security exhibited a statistically significant effect, with a p-value of 0.014, which is below the threshold of 0.05, indicating a substantial impact on customers' adoption of electronic banking services. Similarly, trust demonstrated a p-value of 0.06, confirming its notable influence on adoption levels. Additionally, perceived benefit was found to have a significant effect, with a p-value of 0.02. Conversely, other variables examined in the study, including ease of use, service cost, and speed, did not demonstrate a statistically significant impact on the adoption of electronic banking services in Ouargla. These findings underscore the importance of security, trust, and perceived benefits in fostering the adoption of digital banking services, emphasizing the need for banks to enhance these factors to promote greater customer engagement with electronic banking platforms.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Investigation of Impact of Oil, Gold and Natural Gas Prices on Clean Energy Stock Prices
Manaf Baghirzade, Tymur Kosormyhin
This study investigates the impact of oil, gold, and natural gas prices on clean energy stock prices using a comprehensive set of statistical techniques. Daily and monthly data for the period 2013–2023 were obtained from Yahoo Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Investing.com. Correlation, pairwise regression, multivariate regression, and ANOVA analyses were performed. The strongest association was identified between clean energy stocks and gold prices (r = 0.82), while weaker correlations were observed with oil (r = 0.22) and natural gas (r = 0.27). Pairwise regression analysis confirmed the significance of gold as a predictor (R² = 0.72, p < 0.01), whereas models involving oil and gas were found to be statistically insignificant (R² < 0.15, p > 0.2). A multivariate regression model incorporating gold indices and prices yielded R² = 0.83 with all variables statistically significant at p < 0.05, confirming gold’s dominant explanatory power. The statistical robustness of the selected factors was further validated through ANOVA tests (F-statistics > F-critical, p < 0.01). The findings indicate that gold functions as a safe-haven asset with a measurable influence on clean energy stock valuations, while oil and gas prices exert negligible effects. The results highlight the importance of incorporating gold-related indicators into clean energy investment models and provide a quantitative foundation for future macroeconomic and policy-oriented analyses.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Exploring the Influence of Financial Socialization on University Students' Financial Well-Being using a Two-Stage PLS-ANN Approach
Babu Ram Rawat, Padam Raj Joshi
This study investigates the influence of financial socialization, which consists of financial behavior, financial education programs, parental financial education, and peer influence, on the financial well-being of university students. Responses were collected from 395 university students enrolled in undergraduate and graduate programs across colleges in Nepal using a purposive sampling technique. This study uses structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the effects of financial socialization on the financial well-being of university students. An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to analyze the complex and nonlinear relationships. The results show that all hypotheses are statistically significant. This indicates that financial behavior, financial education programs, parental financial education, and peers contribute significantly to the financial well-being of university students. Financial behavior emerged as the strongest predictor of financial well-being, followed by financial-education programs. The ANN analysis shows that the nonlinear relationship between financial well-being and parental financial education ranks higher than peer influence, in dissimilarity to the PLS-SEM results. The findings emphasize the interplay of the behavioral, educational, and social dimensions of financial development on financial well-being through complex pathways. This study contributes to understanding the multifaceted financial socialization process and provides guidance for prioritizing interventions that focus on behavioral change while addressing the educational and social aspects of financial development to improve the financial well-being of university students and young adults.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
The relationship between the real effective exchange rate and non-hydrocarbon export growth
Darine Mehenna, Faiza Bouzemlal, Ali Nabil Belouard
This study examined the impact of the exchange rate on non-hydrocarbon exports in Algeria. The main purpose of the research is to examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the non-hydrocarbon export growth using the data of the Algerian economy. The data used are obtained from different sources: the real effective exchange rate is collected from International Financial Statistics published by the International Monetary Fund, while the non-hydrocarbon export growth is obtained from the Algeria Bank, and the gross domestic product variables are extracted from the official website of the World Bank. To conduct the study, the annual data for the three variables from 1980 to 2021 was considered; time series econometric techniques are used to check the existence of the relationship between variables. In the first step, the authors have performed the augmented Dickey-Fuller tests to check the stationarity of the three variables of interest. This test was computed for each variable with three models: the first model includes the constant term and the trend, the second model includes the constant term, and the third model was estimated without both the constant and the trend term. The stationary tests show that three variables (gross domestic product, the real effective exchange rate, and the non-hydrocarbon export growth) are integrated with order one, zero, and zero, respectively. In the second step, the exploration of the ARDL model between the three variables shows that the hypothesis that stipulates the existence of a significant relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the non-hydrocarbon export growth, on the one hand, is rejected, while the non-hydrocarbon export growth is, on the other hand, positively and statistically significantly correlated to the gross domestic product.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Impacts of Private Benefits on Corporate Governance
Mohamed Wadie Lahouirich, Adil El Amri
This article addresses the critical issue of private benefits in corporate governance, focusing on how executives or controlling shareholders exploit their positions for personal gain, often at the expense of shareholder value and corporate performance. This issue is highly relevant, as it directly impacts the alignment between executive and shareholder interests and can lead to inefficiencies in corporate governance. The primary purpose is to examine the various forms of private benefits, such as excessive compensation and self-serving strategic decisions, and to explore governance mechanisms that can mitigate these practices. The choice of private benefits as the research object is justified by their widespread and detrimental impact on corporate performance and sustainability. This article employs conceptual analysis, grounded in agency theory, to investigate how performance-based compensation, independent audit committees, and increased transparency can reduce the extraction of private benefits. Drawing on key studies, it analyzes the ways in which these governance mechanisms align executive actions with long-term corporate goals. The main findings reveal that private benefits manifest in forms like excessive compensation and biased strategic decisions, undermining long-term performance. Strong governance frameworks, including performance-based pay and independent oversight, are essential in curbing such behaviors. The results of this article have practical applications for corporate boards, regulatory bodies, and governance consultants. They can be used to improve governance policies, ensuring that executive compensation and strategic decisions are in line with sustainable corporate practices, benefiting both shareholders and the broader business ecosystem.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Investment Patterns in Diverse Economies: A Bibliometric Study of Global Transformations
Artem Artyukhov, Olha Yeremenko, Nadiia Artyukhova
et al.
This paper presents a bibliometric analysis examining investment patterns in diverse economies and their relationship with global financial transformations. The study spans from 1964 to 2024, utilising data from the Web of Science (WoS) and analysed with R Studio and CiteSpace to identify trends and shifts in academic focus on investment strategies. A dataset of 1595 articles from 554 sources was processed, revealing key trends and shifts in investment patterns across different regions. The research highlights a notable rise in academic interest since 2015, with an 8.46% annual growth rate in publications. Methodologically, thematic evolution and network visualisation techniques were used to track collaboration patterns and emerging topics. For instance, 40.94% of the articles involved international co-authorship, emphasising global interest in investment dynamics. The study reveals critical insights into foreign direct investment (FDI) trends, particularly in developing and transitional economies, and how various global financial events influence investment behaviours. The average citation rate of 2.7 per article further underscores the significance of this field. The analysis confirms that investment patterns are crucial to understanding global economic transformations, providing a foundation for policymakers to craft economic strategies aimed at promoting balanced and sustained investment growth.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Value-added taxation in Ukraine in conditions of economic instability
I.V. Zhyhlei, D.O. Maikovets
Recent years have been characterized by significant fluctuations in the economy due to the influence of external factors, such as the pandemic, which significantly affected the economy of Ukraine, and the full-scale invasion of Russia. Value added tax is an essential part of the state budget revenues, which was also subject to constant changes under the influence of these circumstances. During this period, both business practices and legislative initiatives underwent significant changes. The article analyzes revenues to the state budget over the past five years, identifies important components in the structure of filling the state budget, and defines the value added tax as the main revenue part of the state. The tax under study directly depends on external and internal factors that affect the economy and the state in general, and a large number of changes occur due to the pressure of such factors on the functioning of the state and citizens who conduct their activities both in the middle of the country and with foreign counterparties. The latest changes regarding the procedure for registration of VAT payers, changes in VAT rates, both in the general and simplified taxation systems, in relation to VAT benefits, VAT in export and import transactions, the application of fines for violation of VAT legislation, as well as the preparation of tax returns were considered. invoices and tax declaration with VAT. It is taken into account that each country independently regulates the legislation on the tax burden, taking into account the peculiarities of its economic situation, therefore the experience of other countries is taken into account. It was emphasized that the reform of the taxation system should ensure not only an increase in revenues to the state budget, but also should be acceptable to citizens as direct tax payers.
Describing the Level of Awareness of Micro-Enterprises in Local Taxation
Paul Cezam Rivera, Allene Kyle Mirrar, Mark Nicole Malazarte
Background: Local taxes play a vital role in contributing significant socio-economic development and welfare in the city. This paper describes the level of awareness of micro-enterprises in local taxation.
Objective: This study wants to comprehensively describe and conduct a detailed analysis of the level of awareness among micro-enterprises regarding local taxation in Pagadian City, how such awareness helped these owners manage their business operations, and where they stay informed about local tax ordinances.
Method: This research employed a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design using a survey questionnaire. Then, the weighted mean and standard deviation, with the help of SPSS, were used to analyze the quantitative part of the research. It drew inspiration from Sharan Merriam's work, which emphasized the importance of patterns and themes.
Results: This study revealed that micro-enterprise owners exhibit a high level of awareness regarding business taxes but need more awareness of amusement taxes. Awareness helped the owners in their business operations in the following ways: avoid penalties, smooth business operation, good decision-making, proper management, improvement skills, lessening tax stress, good reputation, successful business, business improvements, understanding customers, and properly registered. Additionally, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) emerged as the predominant source of knowledge concerning local tax ordinances.
Conclusion: In Pagadian City, most micro-business owners understand local taxes. They know about Business Tax, which applies to all businesses, regardless of size. However, they must learn about amusement taxes due to the complex Philippine tax system.
Keywords: local tax ordinances, tax awareness, Philippine taxation, micro-enterprises, taxation
The Choice of the Foreign Touristic Destination: An Analysis of the Motivational Factors among the Algerian Tourists
Hadia Brahimi, Boubakeur Benlaib, Khaled Rouaski
The objective of this study is to identify the motivational factors related to the choice of foreign touristic destinations among Algerian tourists. A questionnaire was distributed online and the study sample reached 318 Algerian tourists who visited at least one tourist destination outside of the country in 2018 or 2019. The data processing was done using the statistical software SPSS 28. The results showed on the one hand that the main internal motives for choosing a foreign destination are the desire to visit new places and see new natural landscapes, discover new cultures and lifestyles, and live a new travel experience. On the other hand, the main external motivations are the availability of the best quality-price ratio, the safety, and cleanliness of the destination, and the exceptional natural landscapes and historical sites.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Content and Meaning of Financial Cyber Security: a Bibliometric Analysis
Vitaliia Koibichuk, Tetiana Dotsenko
Reliable cybersecurity has a decision value for economic and national security of every country. The financial sector is most susceptible to cyber-attacks, as it is one of the most important systems of society, containing a large amount of data and critical information. To provide reliable cybersecurity, government must participate actively in development and strengthening of policies. It includes establishment of rules and standards for business, creation of only national strategy of cybersecurity and participating in international partnership for an exchange advanced experience and resources. In addition, government must invest in cybersecurity tools, technology, and personnel to protect digital infrastructure and the data of citizens and companies. Finally, governments should prioritize cyber security education and awareness among citizens and companies to minimize the risk of digital attacks. The article provides a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of scientific publications devoted to the topic of financial cyber security using modern powerful bibliometric software (Vosviewer, Bibliometrix, SciVal) and an analysis of normative legislative documents of Ukraine and the European Union, in particular the recommendations of the European Union Agency for Cyber Security (ENISA). The bibliometric analysis made it possible to form groups of clusters characterizing the cyber lexicon, methods, and technologies for detecting cyberthreats, and to highlight the most cited publications in the world. The statistical basis for the analysis was formed by scientific publications indexed by the Elsevier reference and bibliographic corporation. The results of the conducted research are a plan of recommended actions for managers of financial institutions, banks, and enterprises regarding the effective organization of cyber security and includes such steps as: development of cyber security culture on an ongoing basis; appointment of a responsible person for the organization of cyber security; conducting cyber security audits on an ongoing basis; creating a data protection memo; provision of advanced training in the field of cyber data protection; ensuring effective interaction with a third party involved in financial relations, reflected in concluded contracts; formation of a response plan to cyber incidents; organization of secure access to automated information systems used in the institution's operations; organization of device security in case of remote use and performance of professional duties; organization of network connection security; improvement of physical security of official documents and devices; protection of backup copies and testing for the possibility of a full update based on these backup copies; synchronization with cloud technologies in compliance with the provisions of regulatory documents; protection of websites, publication and distribution of up-to-date information on new types and types of cyber threats.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Defining and Measuring Overall Performance In Emerging Countries: A Comprehensive Financial Perspective Review
Fadwa El Fallahi, Abdelmajid Ibenrissoul, Adil El Amri
In the ever-evolving business landscape post-COVID, companies face intense competitive pressure and must integrate performance and responsibility through sustainable practices. In this regards, financial performance alone is no longer sufficient to gauge success. Overall performance has become the primary objective for firms, especially in emerging economies, as it ensures holistic development and effective results. Embracing sustainability and measuring success across various dimensions are crucial for achieving long-term growth and resilience in the face of uncertainty. However, defining and measuring the multidisciplinary concept of "overall performance" remains extremely challenging and continues to be the subject of several academic controversies. The aim of this article is to delve deeply into the complex and multidimensional concept of overall business performance in emerging economies and aims to provide researchers, practitioners, and policymakers with a robust conceptual framework to define and measure overall performance in a changing economic landscape. In doing so, it contributes to shedding light on ongoing debates about evaluating business success in emerging economies while promoting a more integrated approach that considers both financial outcomes and social responsibility. Ultimately, this article aspires to stimulate deeper reflection on how businesses can thrive and positively impact society in a rapidly evolving world.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Modeling the Impact of Shadow Financial Transactions on the Country's Financial Potential
Inna Tiutiunyk, Iryna Kozhushko
The article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific debate on the issue of raising the level of the country's financial potential. The main goal of the conducted research is to model the impact of shadow operations on the level of the country's financial potential. Analysis of the dynamics of publication activity on issues of the shadow economy and financial potential in publications indexed by the Scopus and Web of Science databases, bibliometric analysis of the connection between the concept of the shadow economy and other economic categories made it possible to identify theories that are most closely related to this concept: theory innovative management, theory of liberalization, theory of political economy, institutional theory. The urgency of solving this scientific problem lies in the fact that in the conditions of a protracted economic crisis and active military operations on the territory of Ukraine, significant volumes of shadow operations negatively affect the attractiveness of the country from the side of international partners, the level of its financial stability, the ability to withstand economic and political risks. Methods of dynamic analysis, Erlang's formula, methods of regression analysis became the methodical toolkit of the conducted research, the period of the study was 2008-2021. The article presents the results of an empirical analysis of the financial potential of Ukraine, which showed a gradual increase in its level until 2021. At the same time, the forecast values of the level of financial potential in 2022 indicate its significant reduction and the need to implement a set of measures aimed at maintaining the macroeconomic stability of the country and its financial independence. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the main drivers of the shadowing of the economy include: a low level of material or criminal responsibility for these actions, an excessive level of tax burden, the inability of the government to monitor the compliance of economic entities with existing norms and laws in the country. The results of the conducted research can be useful for public administration bodies in the context of improving the policy of countering shadowing of the economy as a component of increasing the country's financial potential.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Gender diversity in the boardroom and shareholder wealth maximisation: Evidence from the United Kingdom
Fakhrul Hasan
In this research our aims to provide further evidence in the research area behind the effects of gender diversity in the board room. The empirical consensus is gender diversity increases a firm’s financial performance, and greater financial performance increases dividends and stock price. This research will provide evidence for the direct link between the two. We used FTSE 100 companies across the period 2011-2020. Data analysis shows that FTSE 100 found no relationship between gender and dividends, of 0.01% statistical significance, no relationship or statistical significance between gender and return, and a weak positive correlation of 0.015 statistical significance between gender and EPS. This therefore drawn to the conclusion of given its establishment, constituents of the FTSE 100 are subject to foreseeable levels of performance and profits. Given their size and lack of volatility at that sector of the stock market, that alteration of gender diversity at board level will result in a change in dividend or stock returns and is more likely to be due to more operational aspects of the companies.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
The Impact of the 2008-2009 Global Crisis on Manufacturing Firms’ Bank Accounts, Overdraft Facilities, And Loans
Halil D. Kaya
In this study, we focus on manufacturing firms in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and examine the impact of the 2008-2009 Global Crisis on these firms’ accounts, overdraft facilities, and loans. Our objective is to see if the crisis affected the number of manufacturing firms that have a checking/savings account, that have an overdraft facility, or that have a line of credit/loan. We also want to see whether firms changed the type of financial institution that they borrowed from (i.e. private commercial bank, state-owned bank/agency, or non-bank financial institution). Our results show that, post-crisis, a significantly lower percentage of manufacturing firms had an overdraft facility. Also, post-crisis, a significantly lower percentage of firms had a line of credit/loan. On the other hand, there was no significant change with respect to the % of firms having a checking or a savings account. Also, there was no significant change with respect to the percentage of firms borrowing from a private commercial bank, a state-owned bank/agency, or a non-bank financial institution. Overall, we conclude that, after the crisis, financial institutions in the region significantly cut their credit facilities to manufacturing firms while firms continued to transact with the same institution or a similar institution.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Issues Regarding the Inclusion of the Real Interest Rate with other factors in Phillips Curve Analysis
Paul F. Gentle
This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue regarding the Inclusion of the Real Interest Rate with other factors in Phillips Curve Analysis. The main purpose of the article is to cause economists to consider the inclusion of the real interest rate in Philips Curve analysis. Earlier economists have examined the Phillips Curve, including Irving Fisher (1926). Later Phillips (1958, 1961) made enough of impression to give the Phillips Curve its appellation (1958, 1961). Further work has been done by Freidman, Phelps Lucas, Rapping and others. Shifts from the Short Run Phillips Curve (SRPC) to the Long Run Phillips Curve (LRPC) have been explained primarily through workers not realizing their real wage has decreased until some time has passed. Also, this shifting from the SRPC to the LRPC is due to producers thinking that demand for their products has had a real, sustained increase, producers finally realize that is not true. This article agrees with those factors being present but also posits the idea of changes in the real interest rate affecting the shift form the SRPC to the LRPC. This brief article summarizes the conclusions of five econometric papers that suggest that the real interest rate should be included in Phillips Curve Analysis. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the five articles with econometric evidence suggest that the real interest rate be included in Phillips Curve Analysis. Though Austrian economists consider capital in their theories, Austrian economists do not use Phillips Curve analysis but instead employ Hayekian Triangles. The results of the research shows that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. These results can be useful for economic analysts, government, financial experts, policymakers.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Fiscal policy and the dynamics of environmental quality in Nigeria
O.J Saka, et al.,
Background: Fiscal policy in terms of governments’ regulation of environmental activities through spending and tax plays a significant role in the quality of the environment. Experience has shown that various emissions arise from various sectors including manufacturing, industry, construction, and transportation which need some degree of regulation through governments’ spending and taxation in order to reduce the extent of damage these emissions impose on Nigeria ecosystem.
Objective: This paper evaluates the link between fiscal policy and environmental quality in Nigeria. The main objective was to examine the effects of fiscal policy tools including revenue generation and tax levied. Growing activities of the economy are also included as a factor that can regulate pollution in the environment. Also, a comparison was made to determine the response of each sectors’ emission to regulatory tools.
Methodology: The theoretical model was adapted from individual preferences which are dependent upon consumption and environmental quality. Secondary data were collected from 1980-2016 on carbon-dioxide emission from various sectors of manufacturing, industry, construction, and transportation from the World Development Indicators. In the same vein, internal revenue generation and value added tax and growth data were collected. The methodology was based on the robust least square estimation due to insensitivity to violation of assumptions.
Results: The study finds out that the scale effect is identified with transport emission; composition effect with manufacturing, industry, and construction emissions; while the technique effect is partly identified by electricity and heat production and transport emissions.
Unique contribution: The paper contributes through comparison of response of various emissions from each sector to regulatory tools, and this is relatively scarce in economic literature. Also, disaggregation into the various sectors according to their relative pollution was reported.
Conclusion: Environmental pollution through emissions of various kinds need serious policy attention. The global warming symbols are threatening and known to emanate from the activities in the industry, manufacturing, and other human activities.
Key recommendation: Regulations from fiscal policy should ensure minimization of pollution which again needs to be complemented by public enlightenment on the dangers of pollution and environmental degradation.
Role Of Financial Intermediaries in Shadow Schemes: Risk-Based Approach
Inna Tiutiunyk, Yuliia Humenna
The article is devoted to the study of the role of financial intermediaries in the shadow sector of the economy. The main purpose of the article is to analyze and systematize the work of scientists to assess the risk of shadow transactions with the participation of financial intermediaries. The results of the analysis of scientific publications on these issues show a wide variety of approaches to the study of these problems. Significant differences in the functioning of the financial, banking, insurance and investment markets of different countries have led to the need to develop and implement their own methodologies for assessing the risk of participation of financial intermediaries in shadow transactions at the state level. The paper summarizes the methodological approaches to assessing the risk of participation of financial intermediaries in shadow transactions in some countries. The methodological tools of the analysis are the methods of analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparative analysis. The object of the study are insurance companies, banking institutions and investment funds – participants in shadow schemes of income concealment. The article summarizes the most typical schemes of income concealment in terms of individual groups of financial intermediaries. The conclusion about the dual nature of banking institutions in these operations is made: 1) banking institutions as a ‘buffer’, and sometimes a direct participant on the way to the legalization of shadow income; 2) banking institutions as a subject of primary financial monitoring and control. Insurance operations that are subject to enhanced control by regulatory authorities include: pseudo-insurance operations; concluding an insurance contract with subsequent receipt of compensation for the occurrence of a fictitious insured event; concluding an insurance contract with an inflated insurance value of the object. Based on the analysis of transactions with signs of fictitiousness, which are realized on the investment market of Ukraine, the conclusion about the important role of technical securities in operations on shadowing of incomes and their further legalization is made. The results of the study can be useful for public financial monitoring and control bodies in terms of identifying transactions that could potentially pose a threat to the formal sector of the economy and developing measures to prevent them.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Trends, Cycles and Seasonal Variations of Ukrainian Gross Domestic Product
Debesh Bhowmik
The article attempts to study trends, seasonal variations and cyclical fluctuations of Ukraine’s quarterly GDP at current prices. The period of the study is from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2020. The methodological support of the study includes an approach based on the Hamilton regression filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the asymmetric filter model of Cristiano and Fitzgerald. Based on the use of a Hamilton regression filter, which clearly gives one complete cycle with a peak and a depression, the study substantiates that the seasonally adjusted series of GDP has a slight difference with the remainder, but its seasonal fluctuations are homogeneous and have the shape of the letter V, which allowed us to draw the following conclusions: seasonal fluctuations in GDP are confirmed by the ACF and PACF models during the study period; the filter is very different from the Hamilton filter in terms of trend and cycle, but has common features in the context of asymmetry in time with the random walk filter of Cristiano and Fitzgerald. The paper substantiates the conclusions about stable and stationary series of GDP by volatility (leading to a decrease) of cyclical fluctuations based on the used forecast model ARIMA (4,0,4) for 2020-2030, which passed through the Hamilton regression filter. Based on the results of the study, the author provides recommendations on the need to introduce a new monetary and fiscal policy, including reform measures, which should be balanced with current trends in the functioning and development of international financial institutions and organizations. Such changes will be a motivating lever for the growth of the share of agriculture and related activities, production, transport, real estate, capital formation and other macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine’s economy, respectively, during the period of GDP decline.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
An Algorithm of Decomposing the Trend and Cyclical Components of FDI Inflows: the Case of Ukraine
Bogdan A. Moskalenko, Pavlin Mitev
The article summarizes the arguments within the scientific challenge on improving approaches to country investment potential evaluation. The main objective of the research is to systematize the existing statistical methods of decomposing macroeconomic time series into growth (trend) and cyclical components. Systematization of theoretical and methodological materials on solving the problem of decomposing the trend and cyclical components of time data series showed that the use of filtering series of economic dynamics based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter allows identifying long-term growth trends or recessions. The relevance of solving this problem is that the country investment potential evaluation is often based on investigating the impact of foreign direct investment`s determinants in a domestic economy while ignoring cyclical macroeconomic processes within and outside the country, on which those determinants often have not responded yet or reacted late. The methodical tools of the research are carried out in the following logical sequence: systematization of existing statistical methods for trend component decomposing; analysis of data that will be used in the decomposition process and in further country investment potential evaluation; application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter and trend component decomposing in foreign direct investment net inflows dynamics into the economy of Ukraine. The Research methods combine in following dimensions: comparative analysis, regression analysis and univariate methodology of time series decomposing. The period from 1999 to 2019 was chosen as the research period. The object of the research is foreign direct investment net inflows into the economy of Ukraine, as they are the determining element within the country investment potential evaluation process. The article presents the results of empirical analysis, which showed that the decomposing a trend and cyclical components of foreign direct investment inflows can improve the quality of investment potential evaluation, considering the impact of current economic cycle phase. The results of the research can be useful for a more accurate investment potential evaluation on the macroeconomic level and forecasting foreign direct investment inflows for the following time periods.
Capital. Capital investments, Business
Mind Theory and the Role of Financial Decision and Process Role of Optogenetics
Ana Njegovanović
This paper is devoted to the study of functional relationships between behavioural finance, in particular when making decisions in the financial market, and the theory of reason and optogenetics. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interaction of financial decision-making processes with the key principles of the mental state model (theory of mind) and define the role of optogenetics. The author notes that the use of the theory of reason in behavioural finance allows to consider the key characteristics of the mental state of the subject of economic relations (thoughts, perceptions, desires, intentions, feelings have an internal mentalistic and experimental content). The author notes that decision-making at any level characterizes the complex network of scientific industries that allow us to understand the complexity of financial decision-making and the role and significance of the laws of thermodynamics and entropy. Modelling neural networks (based on the experimental approach), the paper presents the results of research in the context of analyzing behavioural changes in our brain under the following scenarios: at the stage of awareness of certain processes; if we participate (or do not) participate in these processes. The following conclusions are made in the paper: for the normal states of anxiety, the greatest number of possible configurations of interactions between brain networks, which represent the highest values of entropy is characteristic. These results are obtained from the study of a small number of participants in the experiment, but give an objective assessment and understanding of the complexity of the research and the guidance that include a scientific basis in the process of solving problems in the financial sphere (as an example: when trading in the financial market).
Capital. Capital investments, Business