Giampiero M. Gallo, Demetrio Lacava, Edoardo Otranto
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures such as the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index, the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate, the Trade Policy Uncertainty index, and the VIX, we estimate conditional correlation models to capture time-varying interactions. The analysis reveals that in 2020, correlations between polls and uncertainty measures were highly dynamic and event-driven, reflecting the influence of exogenous shocks (COVID-19, oil price collapse) and political milestones (primaries, debates). In contrast, during the 2024 campaign, correlations remained close to zero, stable, and largely unresponsive to shocks, suggesting that entrenched polarization and non-economic events (e.g., assassination attempt, candidate changes) muted the economic channel. The study highlights how the interplay between voter sentiment, financial markets, and uncertainty varies across electoral contexts, offering a methodological contribution through the application of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models to political data and policy-relevant insights on the conditions under which economic fundamentals influence electoral dynamics.
This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Turkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Turkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment.
We study how government-led narratives through mass media evolve from construct, a mechanism for framing expectations, into commitment, a sustainable pillar for growth. We propose the "Narratives-Construct-Commitment (NCC)" framework outlining the mechanism and institutionalization of narratives, and formalize it as a dynamic Bayesian game. Using the Innovation-Driven Development Strategy (2016) as a case study, we identify the narrative shock from high-frequency financial data and trace its impact using local projection method. By shaping expectations, credible narratives institutionalize investment incentives, channel resources into R&D, and facilitate sustained improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Our findings strive to provide insights into the New Quality Productive Forces initiative, highlighting the role of narratives in transforming vision into tangible economic growth.
The article presents an analytical review of the development of the core-periphery and peripherality concepts in economic theory. The stages of formation of the core-periphery approach are marked by the contributions of the school of Latin American structuralism, theories of polarized development, dependency theory and world-system theory associated with the names of R. Prebisch, J. Friedmann, F. Perroux, S. Furtado, I. Wallerstein. The core-periphery concept has proved to be a useful analytical tool in studies of international trade and economic growth in the world economy. At the same time, uneven structures of distribution of economic activity in space, similar to the core-periphery structure, appear in many models of regional economy, starting with the model of agricultural production location by I. Thunen and ending with the core-periphery model by P. Krugman. These structures emerge without the help of the core-periphery concept, but as a result of the interaction of two fundamental factors – transport costs and economies of scale – and represent various combinations of dispersion and agglomeration. With regional inequality growing worldwide, the combination of the core-periphery approach and basic concepts of regional economics allows us to analyze the complex mechanisms of spatial polarization of economic space. Over time, the periphery has gone beyond the core-periphery dichotomy and developed into an independent category defined, defined by a combination of low accessibility of large markets, low population density and remoteness from decision-making centers. The concept of peripherality allows us to understand the processes of peripheralisation of previously prosperous territories through the interaction of power asymmetry and agglomeration effects
Abstract With the deepening of economic globalization, interregional connectivity is increasing, making regional economic linkages a hot topic in economics. This study draws on the principles of operations research to classify the urban spatial financial interaction structure into four primary forms: isolated scatter, line, circle, column and network. Through the social network analysis method, the economic structure of urban space is analyzed from the three dimensions of network density, network centrality and cohesive subgroups. At the same time, the distribution of the potential hierarchy of intercity economic links is explored in detail using the gravity model. The empirical Analysis of the 26 city clusters in the Yangtze River Delta reveals that the spatial correlation of the industrial circulation level among these cities is 0.331, and the mean value of the empirical distribution reaches 0.4338, which significantly indicates that the industrial circulation level is positively correlated with the regional economic development. This study provides a valuable reference for the formulation of regional development strategies and shows a unique innovation in enriching the content of economic linkage theory.
The high level of intra- and inter-regional socio-economic inequality is one of the priority problems of the spatial development of the Russian Federation, which is enshrined in a number of state strategic planning documents, including the Strategy for the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast up to 2036. This situation requires constant monitoring of this inequality and the search for solutions to this problem. The article notes the problem of a poorly developed system of criteria for assessing the quality of the economic space of regions in modern economics. It is proved that the available macroeconomic indicators and general information about the region do not allow to reveal the degree of saturation of its territory with production facilities, production infrastructure and to reasonably determine the directions of its development. This publication also analyzes the current state of intra- and inter-regional inequality of individual subjects of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation in terms of a number of key indicators of socio-economic development, and also presents the results of an assessment of the dynamics of inequality in these subjects in the period from 2019 to 2023. When identifying changes in the quality of the economic space of the subjects of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation, such tools as the coefficient of variation, the Gini index, the Theil index and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index were used. These indicators were calculated on the basis of Rosstat data, including in the context of municipalities of the Samara region. The author believes that the proposed criteria for assessing the quality of the economic space of the regions should be used to characterize the degree of its innovation and identify the prerequisites for the territory's participation in ensuring technological sovereignty and economic security of the country.
Rudy Mas’ud, Zamruddin Hasid, Rahcmad Budi Suharto
et al.
Economics is treated effectively by standard economics. In spatial economics, the interaction between Agglomeration Forces, which attract economic activity to a particular region, and Dispersion Forces, which spread economic activity throughout the surrounding region, determines the geographic distribution of economic activity. Spatial Economic Analysis will provide an understanding of how space (distance) influences economic behavior referring to each type of economic entity. The method used in this research is a quantitative research method. Multivariate analysis is used in analyzing research, involving variables in a number more than or equal to three variables. The method used in this research is a quantitative research method. Multivariate analysis is used in analyzing research, involving variables in a number more than or equal to three variables. Development policies must be tailored to specific regions to encourage local production and innovative networks and make the manufacturing industry more competitive. The populations of most cities in urban agglomerations are still spread out. Although urban populations tend to cluster around a few sub-central urban units, the trend is toward population agglomeration around urban centers. The decline in technological progress and technological efficiency will affect the spatial structure of urban agglomeration and influence economic efficiency.
Luca Barbaglia, Lorenzo Frattarolo, Niko Hauzenberger
et al.
Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and with a two-year delay. To obtain robust and more timely measures in a computationally efficient manner, we propose a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that accounts for national information to produce high-frequency estimates of the regional gross value added (GVA). We show that our model produces reliable nowcasts of GVA in 162 regions across 12 European countries.
Wadim Strielkowski, Oxana Mukhoryanova, Oxana Kuznetsova
et al.
This paper analyzes sustainable regional economic development and land use employing a case study of Russia. The economics of land management in Russia which is shaped by both historical legacies and contemporary policies represents an interesting conundrum. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia embarked on a thorny and complex path towards the economic reforms and transformation characterized, among all, by the privatization and decentralization of land ownership. This transition was aimed at improving agricultural productivity and fostering sustainable regional economic development but also led to new challenges such as uneven distribution of land resources, unclear property rights, and underinvestment in rural infrastructure. However, managing all of that effectively poses significant challenges and opportunities. With the help of the comprehensive bibliographic network analysis, this study sheds some light on the current state of sustainable regional economic development and land use management in Russia. Its results and outcomes might be helpful for the researchers and stakeholders alike in devising effective strategies aimed at maximizing resources for sustainable land use, particularly within their respective regional economies.
The monograph examines some important trends in Russia's economic development over the past 70 years and the country's place in the global economic space. The proposed review seems relevant in the sense that it creates a background, a base for comparison with trends emerging after 2021. With regard to individual macro indicators, the authors took the liberty to calculate their forecast characteristics until 2035. The publication is intended for researchers, university teachers, postgraduate and undergraduate students of universities specializing in economics and finance, as well as anyone who is interested in the ongoing economic processes in Russia.
Industrial transfer and undertaking are unavoidable consequences of the free allocation of enterprises and resources in space, and reasonable transfer and undertaking in the region will have an impact on the region’s future coordinated growth. This paper examines industrial transfer in Guangdong Province through a perspective of industrial undertaking place, primarily using the push-pull model of industrial transfer as a theoretical foundation. It measures and analyses 21 cities in Guangdong Province across four dimensions: regional infrastructure capacity, industrial scale advantage, market volume and potential, and regional brand effect. The three components of industrial scale effect gravity, regional infrastructure gravity, and regional industrial structure gravity are extracted by factors to interpret the undertaking capacity of each region, sort out the gradient and orderly transfer scheme from the Pearl River Delta（PRD）region to the east-northwest of Guangdong Province, and make some recommendations.
This study examines airport economic resilience in twelve Chinese representative cities with established airport economies from 2010 to 2019 using panel data. Employing the Time Space Range Entropy Weight, Theil Index, Gini coefficient, and σ convergence model methods, the study found that the resilience index of China's airport economy increased rapidly from 2010 to 2019. Among them, Evolutionary index and Recovery Index increased significantly, while the Resistance Index increased less. As the development of airport economy is increasingly dependent on external environment, airport economy may suffer greater risks when dealing with external shocks. The analysis of differences in resilience development among airport economic zones reveals significant variations in their development and innovation capabilities, as well as the diverse airport development environments. These disparities have led to distinct characteristics in the resilience development of airport economies across different levels and regions during the study period. In terms of development trends, the overall difference in the resilience of the airport economy is gradually shrinking. The difference in the coastal regions is gradually shrinking, while the difference in the inland regions shows a fluctuating increase. If the imbalance and insufficiency of the development environment and resources are not further improved, the difference of the resilience of the airport economy in different regions of China may be further revealed in the future.
Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso, Eva Yamila da Silva Catela, Guilherme Viegas
et al.
Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few -- mainly developed urban places -- have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth.
Remote work has emerged as a transformative force in modern economics, reshaping labor markets, organizational practices, and regional development. What began as a reactive shift during the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved into a sustainable model with significant implications for productivity, cost efficiency, and workforce distribution. This paper examines the multifaceted economics of remote work and projects its future impact across various dimensions, including labor, real estate, taxation, technology, and social equity. The economic appeal of remote work is driven by reduced overhead costs for employers and greater flexibility for employees. It enables access to a global talent pool, supports inclusive employment, and fosters decentralization of economic activity. Remote work has altered real estate dynamics by decreasing demand for commercial office space while increasing residential demand in non-metropolitan areas. Technological infrastructure, particularly in digital communication and cybersecurity, has become a crucial economic enabler.Additionally, this study explores emerging trends such as the rise of the digital nomad economy, remote work’s role in disaster resilience, and the restructuring of corporate innovation models. These shifts have catalyzed new economic behaviors and necessitated policy reforms in taxation, labor rights, and digital infrastructure development. However, challenges persist, including digital inequality, lack of universal social protections for gig workers, and potential negative impacts on urban economies. By evaluating the long-term implications of remote work, the study underscores the need for inclusive, forward-thinking strategies that balance flexibility with equity and efficiency. Governments, corporations, and civil society must collaborate to harness the full economic potential of remote work while addressing its limitations. As the boundaries of traditional work dissolve, remote work is poised to become a central pillar of a resilient, dynamic, and more equitable global economy.
Purpose ─ The paper empirically explores the conditioning role of loan portfolio diversification in the monetary policy pass-through via the bank lending and risk-taking channels.
Methods ─ Data of Vietnamese commercial banks during 2007–2019 is employed to perform regression using the two-step system generalized method of moments in dynamic panel models. For robustness, we approach different choices of monetary policy indicators, ranging from interest-based tools to quantitative-based policy, and consider a rich set of sectoral exposure measures to proxy loan portfolio diversification.
Findings ─ Lower interest rates or greater liquidity injection during monetary expansion may increase bank lending and bank risk, thus confirming the working of the bank lending and risk-taking channels of monetary policy transmission. Notably, the potency of these banking channels may be weakened for banks diversifying loan portfolios more into various economic sectors.
Implication ─ The findings call for monetary authorities to concentrate on certain types of banks, depending on their loan portfolios when setting monetary policy. When managing banking supervision, banking supervisors should also acknowledge the tradeoff between bank lending and bank risk in response to monetary shocks.
Originality ─ For the first time, this paper explores the conditional role of loan portfolio composition and thus further supports the recent upsurge in empirical studies highlighting the role of business models in monetary policy pass-through.
Economic growth, development, planning, Regional economics. Space in economics
Recent studies have found evidence of a negative association between economic complexity and inequality at the country level. Moreover, evidence suggests that sophisticated economies tend to outsource products that are less desirable (e.g. in terms of wage and inequality effects), and instead focus on complex products requiring networks of skilled labor and more inclusive institutions. Yet the negative association between economic complexity and inequality on a coarse scale could hide important dynamics at a fine-grained level. Complex economic activities are difficult to develop and tend to concentrate spatially, leading to 'winner-take-most' effects that spur regional inequality in countries. Large, complex cities tend to attract both high- and low-skills activities and workers, and are also associated with higher levels of hierarchies, competition, and skill premiums. As a result, the association between complexity and inequality reverses at regional scales; in other words, more complex regions tend to be more unequal. Ideas from polarization theories, institutional changes, and urban scaling literature can help to understand this paradox, while new methods from economic complexity and relatedness can help identify inclusive growth constraints and opportunities.
We examine the spillover effect of neighboring ports on regional industrial diversification and their economic resilience using the export data of South Korea from 2006 to 2020. First, we build two distinct product spaces of ports and port regions, and provide direct estimates of the role of neighboring ports as spillover channels spatially linked. This is in contrast to the previous literature that mainly regarded ports as transport infrastructure per se. Second, we confirm that the knowledge spillover effect from neighboring ports had a non-negligible role in sustaining regional economies during the recovery after the economic crisis but its power has weakened recently due to a loosened global value chain.