Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

R. Arjadi

Indonesia has responded with a bold and comprehensive policy package to cushion the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy rebounded in the third quarter of 2020, and the economic recovery is projected to strengthen in 2021 and 2022. Strong policy support and an improving global economy will be the main drivers initially, and greater mobility and confidence will follow with the planned vaccination program in 2021. The uncertainty surrounding the growth outlook is larger than usual. Early completion of a widespread vaccination program is an upside risk, while a protracted pandemic remains a downside risk. The macro-financial fallout of the pandemic and economic downturn could be larger than expected, and credit conditions could be slow to improve. Ongoing reforms aimed at promoting investment are expected to help mitigate the scarring effects from the pandemic and put the economy on a sustained growth path that builds on Indonesia’s favorable demographics.

Kenneth L. Sokoloff, Stanley L. Engerman

Faiza Bouzemlal, Ali Nabil Belouard

Exchange rate volatility can have socioeconomic challenges and a significant impact on export diversification of major global economies. The main objective of this article is to assess the symmetric and asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on Algerian export diversification. For this purpose, the autoregressive linear and nonlinear distributed lag (ARDL) model and annual data for the period 1990-2023 were used.The empirical findings using the estimation for time series data reveal that the volatility of the exchange rate has a symmetric effect on export diversification. The results revealed the presence of cointegration between the variables. The relationship between exchange rate volatility and export diversification in Algeria is positive and symmetric, which is contrary to conventional wisdom, as both currency depreciation and appreciation were found to boost diversification. Economic openness and GDP per capita significantly promote diversification, while investment and infrastructure surprisingly hinder it. Inflation also has an unexpected positive effect. The model adjusts quickly to equilibrium, though short-run results show mixed results. Diagnostic tests confirm robustness, except for serial correlation, corrected via Newey-West standard errors. This article suggests that policy makers should adopt different policies to address socio-economic challenges and keep the exchange rate stable in order to promote export diversification.

Rafał Stobiecki

Ayusha Fayyaz, Zoltan Bartha

The goal of this research is to uncover the channels through which research and development (R&D) impacts economic growth in developing countries. The study employed nine variables from three broader categories in the World Economic Forum database, each covering 32 countries from the lower-middle-income group for the year 2019. The theoretical framework is based on the R&D ecosystem, which includes components such as Institutions, Human capital, Capital market, R&D, and Innovation. Each of these components can contribute to the economic development of the country. Using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), we build a path diagram to visualize and confirm a potential relationship between the components. R&D features had a positive impact on innovation (regression weight estimate: +0.34, p = 0.001), as did capital market institutions (regression weight estimate: +0.12, p = 0.007), but neither had a significant impact on growth. According to the Schumpeterian institutional interpretation, R&D and innovation efforts may not lead to sustained growth in middle-income countries. We find no significant connection between innovation performance and economic growth. This suggests that while R&D and capital markets may contribute to innovation through entrepreneurship, this contribution is not impactful enough to drive economic growth in developing countries. Our findings provide further evidence of the middle-income trap.

Ali Zeytoon-Nejad

This article expands Milton Friedman's spending matrix to analyse 'spending efficiency' and 'preference compatibility' across different economic systems against five key outcome criteria. By generalising Friedman's typology, it compares efficiency and freedom as systems shift from laissez-faire capitalism to communism, illustrating a gradual deterioration in their key outcomes. While government intervention is sometimes necessary to address market failures, its role should always be carefully limited to avoid inefficiency and misalignment with individual preferences. The insights may provide guidance for policymakers in designing economic systems and policies that promote both economic prosperity and personal liberty.

Zachary Sheldon, Peeyush Kumar

This paper explores the intersection of economic anthropology and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). It examines how large language models (LLMs) can simulate human decision-making and the inductive biases present in AI research. The study introduces two AI models: C.A.L.L.O.N. (Conventionally Average Late Liberal ONtology) and M.A.U.S.S. (More Accurate Understanding of Society and its Symbols). The former is trained on standard data, while the latter is adapted with anthropological knowledge. The research highlights how anthropological training can enhance LLMs' ability to recognize diverse economic systems and concepts. The findings suggest that integrating economic anthropology with AI can provide a more pluralistic understanding of economics and improve the sustainability of non-market economic systems.

A. Kuryshov

The monograph under review is devoted to the study of issues of private entrepreneurial activity on the territory of Belarus during those periods of its history when the capitalist mode of production was of greatest importance — at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. and during the years of implementation of the New Economic Policy (NEP). Essentially, the book by N.I. Poletaeva is a comparative analysis of these periods according to the criteria that can characterize private entrepreneurial activity as a form of economic activity of the population, and entrepreneurs as a social group. This determined the structure of the work: first, the author examines the conditions of entrepreneurial activity, then analyzes the social characteristics of entrepreneurs and their territorial location, and, finally, analyzes the actual entrepreneurial activity in various sectors of the economy — agriculture, industry, trade, services, financial credit sector. Techniques and methods used by N.I. Poletaeva, when studying the history of entrepreneurial activity in Belarus, allowed her to come to consistent conclusions, but the main thing is to demonstrate such a level of research culture and such an approach to historical and economic analysis, which should become guidelines for researchers dealing with similar issues.

G. Magni

: In the politics of welfare, citizens often prioritize natives over immigrants. What conditions reduce welfare discrimination against immigrants? Original survey experiments from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy reveal that the divide between natives and immigrants remains the fundamental cleavage in the politics of welfare. All immigrants face welfare penalties, including immigrants from Western countries. Even young, progressive, highly educated, and economically secure native citizens strongly penalize immigrants. Although immigrants never fully overcome identity barriers, the welfare support gap between natives and immigrants decreases when immigrants have a long work history. A history of employment provides evidence of reciprocity through past contributions and signals immigrants’ commitment to the community. Other immigrants’ characteristics, such as higher education and proactive work attitude, fail to decrease the gap. This article contributes to the study of solidarity in diverse societies and the impact of immigration on the welfare state. Verification Materials: The data and materials required to verify the computational reproducibility of the results, procedures, and analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/WMPXIW.

Hans-E. Porst

Not only motivated by the fact that the publication of the GAFT first appeared 60 years ago in print we reconstruct its history and so show that it is no exaggeration to claim that it has appeared already 75 years ago!

Michael E. Glinsky, Sharon Sievert

This paper fundamentally reformulates economic and financial theory to include electronic currencies. The valuation of the electronic currencies will be based on macroeconomic theory and the fundamental equation of monetary policy, not the microeconomic theory of discounted cash flows. The view of electronic currency as a transactional equity associated with tangible assets of a sub-economy will be developed, in contrast to the view of stock as an equity associated mostly with intangible assets of a sub-economy. The view will be developed of the electronic currency management firm as an entity responsible for coordinated monetary (electronic currency supply and value stabilization) and fiscal (investment and operational) policies of a substantial (for liquidity of the electronic currency) sub-economy. The risk model used in the valuations and the decision-making will not be the ubiquitous, yet inappropriate, exponential risk model that leads to discount rates, but will be multi time scale models that capture the true risk. The decision-making will be approached from the perspective of true systems control based on a system response function given by the multi scale risk model and system controllers that utilize the Deep Reinforcement Learning, Generative Pretrained Transformers, and other methods of Generative Artificial Intelligence (genAI). Finally, the sub-economy will be viewed as a nonlinear complex physical system with both stable equilibriums that are associated with short-term exploitation, and unstable equilibriums that need to be stabilized with active nonlinear control based on the multi scale system response functions and genAI.

Oleg V. Pavlov, Jason M. Sardell

This chapter develops a feedback economic model that explains the rise of the Sicilian mafia in the 19th century. Grounded in economic theory, the model incorporates causal relationships between the mafia activities, predation, law enforcement, and the profitability of local businesses. Using computational experiments with the model, we explore how different factors and feedback effects impact the mafia activity levels. The model explains important historical observations such as the emergence of the mafia in wealthier regions and its absence in the poorer districts despite the greater levels of banditry.

Ruzmetov Mirzabek

This paper discusses in short about Ulugh Beg, astronomer and mathematician from Samarkand, Uzbekistan. This paper is important for giving education to our generation, especially the Muslim generation that there are Muslim astronomers who are famous and have open minds and knowledge. This paper is expected to advance the spirit of Muslim countries, which at present are still in limited socio-economic conditions so that Muslim countries can rise in the socio-economic and scientific fields.

Zaur S. Ibragimov

Since the founding of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation in 2004, this institution has been actively involved in large-scale international cultural relations. The purpose of creating this fund was to preserve and popularize the legacy of the national leader of the Azerbaijani people, Heydar Aliyev, to convey the truth about Azerbaijan to the world community, and to familiarize with its history, culture, and spiritual values. The purpose of this article is to determine the stages of formation and development of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, to analyze the directions of its multi-vector activity and to justify the role of the Foundation in forming a positive image of independent Azerbaijan. Along with general logical methods, the methods of political monitoring, content analysis, historical and comparative analysis are used, which make it possible to highlight the complex of activities carried out by the Fund and to forecast the trends of its further activity. Since the foundation of the Foundation, important projects have been developed and successfully implemented to protect the welfare of the Azerbaijani people, protect their national heritage and moral values. The Heydar Aliyev Foundation, paying special attention to the expansion of cooperation with Islamic countries in the field of science and culture, ensured the achievement of the highest level of development of relations between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Organization for Education, Science and Culture. The Heydar Aliyev Foundation paid serious attention to the expansion of cooperation within the framework of the UN, which resulted in the adoption of the Program on creating conditions for the use of information and communication technologies by people with visual impairments. According to the results of the research, it was established that the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, in cooperation with the government, parliament and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, plays the role of one of the effective means of implementing the foreign policy, social, humanitarian, political, economic and cultural strategy of Azerbaijan. The Foundation was able to form a positive image of Azerbaijan on an international scale, establishing constructive cooperation in all spheres, both with individual states and with influential international and regional organizations.

Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian

Macroeconomics essentially discusses macroeconomic phenomena from the perspectives of various schools of economic thought, each of which takes different views on how macroeconomic agents make decisions and how the corresponding markets operate. Therefore, developing a clear, comprehensive understanding of how and in what ways these schools of economic thought differ is a key and a prerequisite for economics students to prosper academically and professionally in the discipline. This becomes even more crucial as economics students pursue their studies toward higher levels of education and graduate school, during which students are expected to attain higher levels of Bloom's taxonomy, including analysis, synthesis, evaluation, and creation. Teaching the distinctions and similarities of the two major schools of economic thought has never been an easy task to undertake in the classroom. Although the reason for such a hardship can be multi-fold, one reason has undoubtedly been students' lack of a holistic view on how the two mainstream economic schools of thought differ. There is strong evidence that students make smoother transition to higher levels of education after building up such groundwork, on which they can build further later on (e.g. Didia and Hasnat, 1998; Marcal and Roberts, 2001; Islam, et al., 2008; Green, et al., 2009; White, 2016). The paper starts with a visual spectrum of various schools of economic thought, and then narrows down the scope to the classical and Keynesian schools, i.e. the backbone of modern macroeconomics. Afterwards, a holistic table contrasts the two schools in terms of 50 aspects. Not only does this table help economics students enhance their comprehension, retention, and critical-thinking capability, it also benefits macroeconomic instructors to ...

Jussi T. S. Heikkila

The Journal of Economic Literature codes classification system (JEL) published by the American Economic Association (AEA) is the de facto standard classification system for research literature in economics. The JEL classification system is used to classify articles, dissertations, books, book reviews, and working papers in EconLit, a database maintained by the AEA. Over time, it has evolved and extended to a system with over 850 subclasses. This paper reviews the history and development of the JEL classification system, describes the current version, and provides a selective overview of its uses and applications in research. The JEL codes classification system has been adopted by several publishers, and their instructions are reviewed. There are interesting avenues for future research as the JEL classification system has been surprisingly little used in existing bibliometric and scientometric research as well as in library classification systems.

Ivar Ekeland, Alfred Galichon, Marc Henry

A general framework is given to analyze the falsifiability of economic models based on a sample of their observable components. It is shown that, when the restrictions implied by the economic theory are insufficient to identify the unknown quantities of the structure, the duality of optimal transportation with zero-one cost function delivers interpretable and operational formulations of the hypothesis of specification correctness from which tests can be constructed to falsify the model.

Jeroen van Dongen

String theorists are certain that they are practicing physicists. Yet, some of their recent critics deny this. This paper argues that this conflict is really about who holds authority in making rational judgment in theoretical physics. At bottom, the conflict centers on the question: who is a proper physicist? To illustrate and understand the differing opinions about proper practice and identity, we discuss different appreciations of epistemic virtues and explanation among string theorists and their critics, and how these have been sourced in accounts of Einstein's biography. Just as Einstein is claimed by both sides, historiography offers examples of both successful and unsuccessful non-empirical science. History of science also teaches that times of conflict are often times of innovation, in which novel scholarly identities may come into being. At the same time, since the contributions of Thomas Kuhn historians have developed a critical attitude towards formal attempts and methodological recipes for epistemic demarcation and justification of scientific practice. These are now, however, being considered in the debate on non-empirical physics.

Kang K. L. Liu, N. Lubbers, W. Klein et al.

The agent-based Yard-Sale model of wealth inequality is generalized to incorporate exponential economic growth and its distribution. The distribution of economic growth is nonuniform and is determined by the wealth of each agent and a parameter $λ$. Our numerical results indicate that the model has a critical point at $λ=1$ between a phase for $λ< 1$ with economic mobility and exponentially growing wealth of all agents and a non-stationary phase for $λ\geq 1$ with wealth condensation and no mobility. We define the energy of the system and show that the system can be considered to be in thermodynamic equilibrium for $λ< 1$. Our estimates of various critical exponents are consistent with a mean-field theory (see following paper). The exponents do not obey the usual scaling laws unless a combination of parameters that we refer to as the Ginzburg parameter is held fixed as the transition is approached. The model illustrates that both poorer and richer agents benefit from economic growth if its distribution does not favor the richer agents too strongly. This work and the accompanying theory paper contribute to understanding whether the methods of equilibrium statistical mechanics can be applied to economic systems.

Anton Bondarev, Frank C. Krysiak

Most explanations of economic growth are based on knowledge spillovers, where the development of some technologies facilitates the enhancement of others. Empirical studies show that these spillovers can have a heterogeneous and rather complex structure. But, so far, little attention has been paid to the consequences of different structures of such cross-technology interactions: Is economic development more easily fostered by homogenous or heterogeneous interactions, by uni- or bidirectional spillovers? Using a detailed description of an r&d sector with cross-technology interactions embedded in a simple growth model, we analyse how the structure of spillovers influences growth prospects and growth patterns. We show that some type of interactions (e.g., one-way interactions) cannot induce exponential growth, whereas other structures can. Furthermore, depending on the structure of interactions, all or only some technologies will contribute to growth in the long run. Finally, some spillover structures can lead to complex growth patterns, such as technology transitions, where, over time, different technology clusters are the main engine of growth.