Hasil untuk "Crisis management. Emergency management. Inflation"

Mahadih Kyambade, S. Nangoli, Afulah Namatovu et al.

PURPOSE This study examines how non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Uganda navigated the dual health crises of Ebola and COVID-19, focusing on the crisis management strategies and resilience-building mechanisms employed to sustain operations and deliver essential health services. The research seeks to understand how organizational structures, leadership approaches, and community engagement contributed to adaptive capacity in the face of severe public health disruptions. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH A qualitative research design was employed, involving in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 30 program managers and emergency response coordinators from leading NGOs, including BRAC, AMREF, and the Uganda Red Cross. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis, guided by a resilience and crisis management framework, to identify patterns and strategies relevant to health emergency contexts. FINDINGS The analysis revealed five core strategies underpinning resilience: (1) preparedness and early warning systems that enabled rapid mobilization and proactive risk mapping, (2) adaptive leadership and decentralized decision-making that ensured timely, context-specific responses, (3) resource mobilization and partnership networks that leveraged local and international collaborations for operational continuity, (4) staff well-being and psychosocial support mechanisms that maintained workforce motivation and safety, and (5) organizational learning and post-crisis adaptation, where lessons from previous outbreaks strengthened agility and coordination with government and international health agencies. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The findings provide actionable insights for NGOs, policymakers, and global health actors on integrating resilience principles into health crisis management. Strengthening local partnerships, embedding flexible operational structures, and investing in staff well-being are critical to maintaining service continuity in resource-limited settings during public health emergencies. ORIGINALITY/VALUE This study is among the first to provide a comparative qualitative analysis of NGO crisis management practices across two major infectious disease outbreaks in Uganda. By integrating perspectives from frontline managers and coordinators, it offers context-specific lessons on resilience that bridge humanitarian action and health systems strengthening in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Swarnamouli Majumdar, B. Mallik

As global emergencies grow more complex, emerging technologies such as drones, augmented reality (AR), and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are redefining the landscape of crisis management. This paper explores the cutting-edge integration of these technologies, showcasing their potential to revolutionize firefighting, disaster response, and urban safety. Using vivid realworld examples—from drones mapping wildfires in California to AR wearables enhancing situational awareness in low-visibility conditions—this survey uncovers key applications, challenges, and societal impacts. Insights into human-centered design, trustbuilding, and policy evolution highlight a path forward for deploying these game-changing tools. By addressing barriers like cognitive overload, public skepticism, and ethical considerations, this research envisions a future where responders are faster, safer, and smarter in the face of disaster.

Jasmina Schmidt, L. Gerhold

This paper explores how narratives shape our understanding of crises and disasters and, by extension, drive organizational practices in crisis and disaster governance (CDG). Based on interviews and focus group discussions with representatives from two types of emergency services—namely, road maintenance services and forest fire management organizations—we systematically catalog the narratives developed to understand past crisis and disaster events based on the narrative typology posited by Seeger and Sellnow (2016) and draw on theories of sensemaking and the social construction of reality. We devote special attention to the 2021 Ahr Valley floods, showing how unexpected disaster events can generate narratives that modify an organization's outlook on the future. While our data are retrospective, we observe instances where narrative shifts are associated with sensemaking processes. Our empirical findings suggest that the narratives developed to understand past events play a crucial role in determining how emergency services prepare for and react to future crises and disasters. Accordingly, we argue that actors involved in CDG would be well advised to devote attention to the narrative dimensions of organizational culture when developing disaster preparation and prevention strategies.

علیرضا احمدی, رضا غفارپور

با توجه به افزایش نرخ رشد جمعیت، کاهش میزان بارندگی، نیاز روزافزون جوامع انسانی به آب و نقش حیاتی آن در دنیا و به‌ویژه مناطق دارای اقلیم نیمه‌خشک و خشک در کشور، لذا استفاده از منابع انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر به‌ویژه انرژی خورشیدی در راستای تصفیه و تأمین آب و درنتیجه کمک به افزایش نرخ تولید آب شیرین امری ضروری است. هدف از این پژوهش پتانسیل‌سنجی استان خراسان رضوی از نظر معیارهای محیطی مؤثر برای استقرار کلکتورهای خورشیدی با استفاده از داده‌های دورسنجی و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی GIS به روش AHP است. در این راستا ابتدا به بررسی معیارهای تابش، میزان دما، سرعت باد، با استفاده نرم‌افزار Arc GIS 10.8.2 پرداخته می‌شود. سپس اقدام به وزن دهی معیارها بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان با استفاده از روش AHP و تلفیق و هم‌پوشانی لایه‌ها شد. نتایج AHP نشان داد که شاخص میزان تابش با مقدار 533/0 بالاترین امتیاز را داشت. همچنین نتایج تلفیق داده‌های مورد بررسی نشان داد که بیش از 40 درصد از استان خراسان رضوی دارای پتانسیل مناسبی از نظر استقرار کلکتورهای خورشیدی است که این مناطق منطبق بر شهرستان‌های تربت‌جام، بخش جنوب باخزر، زاوه، تربت‌حیدریه، جنوب کوهسرخ، ششتمد، سبزوار، بردسکن، خلیل‌آباد، غرب مه ولات و شمال بجستان بود. به‌طورکلی استفاده از GIS و روش وزن دهی AHP برای تعیین مناطق استقرار سامانه تصفیه‌کننده‌های خورشیدی عملکرد مناسبی ارائه داده است.

F. Javier Martin-Campo, M. Teresa Ortuño, Berta Ruiz-Gonzalez

Purpose – The deployment of a field hospital can play an important role in the response to an emergency. This paper is concerned with the management of emergency staff to a field hospital from a roster of volunteers with different characteristics. This paper aims to propose a mathematical optimisation model that selects the necessary profiles of the roster according to several criteria and provides travel planning taking into account the total cost of the operation. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a multi-criteria optimisation model to take into account the preferences of the three main stakeholders involved in the deployment of the field hospital: the cooperation organisation, the staff and the end users. The model considers the possibility of using commercial or chartered flights, allows staff to indicate their preferred availability, considers the grading of volunteers according to their skills and training and provides a final flight schedule for all the medical personnel needed to operate the field hospital. Compromise programming is used to provide a Pareto optimal solution, which is compared with solutions provided by Goal programming. Findings – The model has been validated using data from the operation in a case study of the deployment of the Spanish START hospital in Turkey 2023, demonstrating the practical utility of the model in similar operations. Originality/value – The study innovates by considering a multi-criteria model that takes into account the main actors involved in the response – cooperation organisation, staff and end users – in an integrated way and proposes new measures of efficiency.

رضا رضانژاد, آرش جوانشیرخوئی

مقاله حاضر به بررسی تهدیدات احتمالی زیستی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی، سیاسی، امنیتی و اجتماعی ماهی قرمز به عنوان یک گونه غیر بومی و مهاجم با رویکرد پدافند غیرعامل می‌پردازد. گونه­های مهاجم ارگانیسم­هایی هستند که به­طور عمدی یا تصادفی به یک اکوسیستم جدید معرفی شده­اند که اثرات اقتصادی، محیط زیستی و... مضری دارند. ماهی قرمز به دلیل توانایی بالای سازگاری و تکثیر سریع، تهدیدات جدی برای اکوسیستم‌های آبی، اقتصاد، فرهنگ، سیاست، امنیت و جامعه ایجاد کرده است. این مقاله با رویکرد پدافند غیرعامل، راهکارهایی برای کاهش این تهدیدات بدون استفاده از روش‌های تهاجمی و مخرب ارائه می‌دهد. از جنبه زیستی، ماهی قرمز با رقابت برای منابع غذایی و زیستگاه، انتقال بیماری‌ها و انگل‌ها، و تغییر ساختار جوامع میکروبی و شیمیایی آب، تعادل اکولوژیکی را برهم زده و تنوع زیستی را کاهش می‌دهد. از نظر اقتصادی و اجتماعی، این گونه با کاهش تولیدات شیلات و آبزی‌پروری، افزایش هزینه‌های مدیریت و کنترل، و تأثیرات منفی بر صنعت گردشگری، بار مالی قابل توجهی بر جوامع محلی و دولت‌ها تحمیل نموده و منجر به کاهش درآمد عمومی و ایجاد نارضایتی در جوامع صیادی می­گردد. از منظر فرهنگی و سیاسی، باورها و آیین‌های نادرست در مورد رهاسازی ماهی قرمز در طبیعت، به گسترش این گونه و تخریب بیشتر محیط زیست منجر گردیده و گسترش این گونه در منابع آبی مشترک بین کشورها می‌تواند باعث ایجاد تنش و اختلافات بین‌المللی شود. از جنبه امنیتی، کاهش منابع آبزیان بومی و افزایش هزینه‌های مدیریت این گونه، امنیت غذایی و مالی جوامع را تهدید می‌کند. این مقاله با رویکرد ترکیبیِ تحلیل محتوای کیفی و کمی مقالات مختلف پایگاه­های علمی معتبر شامل اسکوپوس، الزویر انجام شده و با ارائه راهکارهای مبتنی بر پدافند غیرعامل، از جمله آموزش عمومی، نظارت مستمر بر منابع آبی، ایجاد قوانین سختگیرانه‌تر، استفاده از روش‌های بیولوژیکی کنترل، و ارتقای مشارکت جامعه محلی و همکاری بین‌المللی، نشان می‌دهد که مدیریت مؤثر این تهدیدات نیازمند همکاری همه‌جانبه و اجرای اقدامات پیشگیرانه است. پیشنهاد می‌شود تحقیقات آینده بر توسعه روش‌های نوین مدیریتی و ارزیابی تأثیرات بلندمدت این گونه متمرکز شوند.

Mohammed Alageel, Hassan Aloraini, Alanoud Alessa et al.

One of the most common presentations of sickle cell disease (SCD) in the emergency department (ED) is acute severe pain episodes due to a vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC). Management of these episodes is primarily through intravenous pain control, but patients often return to the ED with the same complaint a few days after discharge. While some global studies have explored the risk factors for ED revisits due to VOC, the literature is lacking in the adult population, specifically in Saudi Arabia where SCD prevalence is high. The goal of this study is to measure the incidence of ED 72-hour early revisit (ERV) among SCD patients due to a VOC episode and to identify factors that might be associated with an ERV in this population. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the electronic medical records, retrieving all patients who presented to the ED with a VOC from the period of 2017 to 2022. This study included 120 VOC visits. The percentage of 72-hour ERV to the ED among VOC patients was 39.2%, in which 91.5% received opioids, and 31.9% were admitted during the return visit. Return visitors’ median age was 29, most of them were male. There was no statistically significant correlation found between the patients’ 72-hour ERV to the ED and their age, gender, comorbidities, history of exchange transfusion, pain score, or dose of opiates received. Of the variables measured at the index visit only the direct bilirubin level, and time to first opioid dose was associated with 72-hour ERV with an OR of 1.08 (95%CI: 1.0 to 1.16, P = 0.022) and 0.99 (95%CI: 0.99 to 0.99, P = 0.012) respectively. We found that 39.2% of VOC episodes discharged from the ED had an ERV. This rate is higher than what is reported internationally. Additionally, the lack of clear predictors for revisits raises doubts regarding the efficacy of the ED ‘’treat and release’’ approach in this population. Not applicable.

Saeed Amjadi, Saeed Sayad Shirkesh, M. Jamshidi

This study aimed to design a comprehensive and empirically validated decision-making model for the emergency evacuation of hospitals in crisis conditions, integrating environmental, institutional, and threat-related variables. This applied research employed a mixed-methods design. In the qualitative phase, data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with seven crisis and hospital management experts, combined with thematic analysis using Braun and Clarke’s six-step method and supported by MAXQDA software. These interviews, along with an extensive literature review, were used to identify themes and build the initial conceptual model. The quantitative phase involved the development and distribution of a validated researcher-made questionnaire, which was administered to 440 healthcare managers, decision-makers, and crisis specialists. Factor analysis, Cronbach’s alpha, and structural equation modeling (SEM) using LISREL were employed to assess the model’s validity, reliability, and predictive power. The findings confirmed the significance of three primary dimensions—external environment, hospital-related factors, and threats/crises—in shaping emergency evacuation decisions. The coefficient of determination (R²) for the external environment and hospital factors was 0.90 each, indicating very high explanatory power, while threats and crises showed a moderate R² of 0.45. All 59 questionnaire items had strong factor loadings, and Cronbach’s alpha values for each construct exceeded 0.94, confirming the tool’s reliability. Path analysis demonstrated statistically significant direct effects: external environment (β = 0.59, t = 26.47), hospital factors (β = 0.55, t = 31.03), and threat/crisis conditions (β = 0.45, t = 15.90). The study presents a validated, multidimensional model for hospital evacuation decision-making that reflects both theoretical soundness and practical applicability. The model offers a structured approach for healthcare systems to improve emergency preparedness and response capacity by aligning institutional readiness with external and situational demands.

G. Capano, F. Toth

The current body of multidisciplinary literature on crisis management still has some unresolved problems. This paper focuses on the following four “controversial issues” in dealing with crises: the usefulness of emergency plans; early signal detection; decision‐making amid high uncertainty; and the centralization/decentralization dilemma. The paper first presents the various, contradictory dimensions of these controversial issues, drawing on different strands of organization research, public policy theory, and crisis management studies. Next, these controversial issues are analyzed through the lens of public policy research, drawing specifically on the literature on policy robustness and policy capacities. This theoretical application shows how controversial issues can be framed differently and thus overcome—at least from an analytical and theoretical perspective—confirming that a bridge between crisis management and public policy can be very fruitful in improving our understanding of how crises can be addressed.

Dražen Ignjatović, Vasileios Karagiannis, Aradina Chettakattu et al.

The Internet of Things (IoT) combined with edge and cloud computing are employed extensively across various sectors, including manufacturing, transportation, and crisis management. In crisis management, specifically, the IoT plays a crucial role in data collection and analysis, aiding decision makers and first responders during emergency operations. As the available data increases, however, existing approaches for crisis management may encounter problems in ingesting large and diverse datasets and extracting relevant information efficiently. To address such problems, this paper introduces a novel decision support system capable of ingesting diverse data with low delay by utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs). This way, our system can support decision makers by answering relevant questions automatically. To show real-world applicability, we examine two use cases, namely, pandemic management and natural disaster management, and we discuss the process of using our system to make more informed decisions. To evaluate the proposed decision support system, we build a prototype and conduct experiments that show high accuracy and low cost of generating answers in the context of crisis management and the IoT.

Greg Penney, Chris Bearman, Peter Hayes et al.

Decision-making in disasters and major crises faced by emergency services globally is a difficult combination of science and art to master. To assist decision-makers in these environments, a number of cognitive aids have been developed and subsequently adopted by individuals and organisations alike. However, these aids vary according to their intent and the context in which they are intended to be applied. This review explores the use of cognitive aids in the context of emergency management and explores how existing knowledge regarding the use of cognitive aids from other industries may be translated to emergency management. An iterative literature review of academic and industry material related to cognitive aids during incident and crisis response across a broad range of international emergency service and other industries within the last 20 years was completed. Ultimately, cognitive aids are not a silver bullet when it comes to decision-making in the emergency management context. The correct tool (that is correctly designed) must be correctly applied by trained and competent end users. The Australian emergency management sector may benefit from future research exploring how these existing tools adhere to the good practice principles identified in this study.

Rakesh Sahu, Bhaskar Sahu

Alzheimer's disease presents unique challenges in emergency medical situations, often requiring specialized approaches for effective management. This guide aims to provide emergency medicine practitioners with a comprehensive framework for navigating crises involving patients with Alzheimer's disease. The abstract delves into the intricate aspects of Alzheimer's crises, including behavioural disturbances, cognitive impairments, and medical complications frequently encountered in emergency settings. It emphasizes the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, involving not only medical personnel but also caregivers and support networks. Key topics covered include rapid assessment techniques tailored to the cognitive limitations of Alzheimer's patients, strategies for de-escalating agitation and aggression, and protocols for addressing common medical issues such as infections, injuries, and medication mismanagement. Moreover, the guide outlines communication strategies essential for effective interaction with Alzheimer's patients and their families, ensuring informed decision-making and compassionate care delivery. Additionally, it highlights the significance of understanding legal and ethical considerations surrounding decision-making for incapacitated patients with Alzheimer's disease. By synthesizing evidence-based practices, clinical insights, and practical recommendations, this guide equips emergency medicine practitioners with the necessary tools to navigate Alzheimer's crises confidently and provide optimal care in challenging situations. Ultimately, it seeks to improve outcomes, enhance patient safety, and uphold dignity for individuals living with Alzheimer's disease in emergency settings.

Diego Ravenda, Maika M. Valencia-Silva, Josep M. Argiles-Bosch et al.

PurposeThis study aims to explore the Facebook communication strategies of Spanish hospitals during health emergencies, focusing on their role in crisis management and public information dissemination.Design/methodology/approachAutomatic topic modelling and deep learning sentiment analysis were applied to analyse 151,738 posts from 274 hospital Facebook pages (March 2020–Feb 2022). Regression analyses were used to explore the relationships between topics, sentiment scores and hospital characteristics.FindingsThe analysis revealed nine main topics, with the three most prevalent related to COVID-19: vaccine information, security measures and situational updates. This indicates that Spanish hospitals significantly relied on Facebook to manage the emergency. The communication strategies dynamically adapted to the intensity of the pandemic and varied across hospital types. Sentiment analysis showed a negative tone for posts about security measures and situational updates. These findings align with the Agenda-Setting Theory, suggesting that hospitals influenced public discourse. Vaccine information posts were more positive, resonating with the Uses and Gratifications Theory by fulfilling the audience’s need for reassurance and guidance.Originality/valueUsing replicable machine learning techniques, this study elucidates the communication strategies employed by Spanish hospitals to manage healthcare emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights factors that potentially influence these strategies and provides theoretical justifications for them. The variation in communication strategies on Facebook among different hospital categories underscores the imperative for stricter guidelines and regulations to guarantee consistent and reliable communication during emergencies. This research provides valuable insights for practitioners and policymakers aimed at developing effective health communication strategies on social media.

Игорь Юрьевич Иванов, Олег Дмитриевич Навроцкий, Елена Анатольевна Доукешева

Цель. Разработать и апробировать методики определения пленкообразующей способности и огнетушащей эффективности составов на основе фторированных и углеводородных поверхностно-активных веществ (ПАВ) при подаче в виде мелкодисперсной воды. Методы. Общая методология работы предусматривала использование теоретических методов исследования (анализ, синтез, сравнение). Время устойчивости на поверхности горючей жидкости паронепроницаемой водной пленки и эффективность тушения пленкообразующими водными химическими огнетушащими составами оценивались экспериментальным путем. Полученные экспериментальные данные обрабатывались с использованием метода оценивания и выражения неопределенности измерений. Результаты. Разработана и апробирована лабораторная методика по определению времени устойчивости паронепроницаемой водной пленки из растворов на основе фторированных и углеводородных ПАВ на поверхности горючей жидкости. Разработана и апробирована лабораторная методика определения огнетушащей эффективности мелкодисперсной воды с добавками ПАВ при тушении модельного очага пожара класса B. Разработанные методики позволяют с небольшими затратами проводить исследования по разработке новых рецептур огнетушащих веществ, применяемых в виде мелкодисперсной воды. Экспериментально установлено, что изменение концентрации углеводородных ПАВ от 0 до 4 % приводит к снижению межфазного натяжения от 5,86 до 1,26 мН·м-1, увеличению коэффициента растекания водного раствора по поверхности горючей жидкости от -1,06 до 2,58 мН·м-1 и повышению огнетушащей эффективности Et в 25 раз при тушении модельного очага. Увеличение коэффициента растекания водной пленки приводит к увеличению огнетушащей эффективности огнетушащих составов на основе фторированных и углеводородных ПАВ. Область применения исследований. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы при разработке рецептуры пленкообразующих огнетушащих составов для тушения пожаров.

Ravikanth Konda

The rising number of natural and man- made disasters has driven home the necessity of utilizing sophisticated technologies in incident response and public safety operations. Artificial Intelligence (AI), with its data processing capabilities, ability to learn, and real-time analytics, has been a revolutionary driving force in creating smart incident response systems. These AI-powered systems provide noteworthy benefits in identification, forecasting, and reaction to emergency events at better speed and accuracy than classical methods. These systems allow public safety organizations to analyze large volumes of diverse datasets—ranging from sensor feed and surveillance images to social media and emergency dispatch calls—in near real- time and offer situational awareness and actionable intelligence during crises. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of AI-based incident response systems in public safety crisis management. It explores the technologies, data sources, and algorithms behind contemporary systems as well as the implementation issues including ethical issues, data privacy, infrastructure constraints, and algorithmic bias. Through an exhaustive review of literature, method analysis, and examination of recent cases, this research recognizes the advantages, challenges, and opportunities brought about by AI in emergency response. By providing an overview of the present status and future possibilities of such technologies, the paper hopes to contribute to the development of resilient, smart, and ethically sound public safety infrastructures capable of evolving to accommodate changing threats and social demands. Keywords-Artificial Intelligence (AI); Crisis Management; Emergency Response; Incident Detection; Public Safety; Machine Learning; Predictive Analytics; Real-Time Systems; Disaster Response; AI Ethics; Emergency Communication; Resource Allocation.

O. Plaksiuk, O. Yakushev, A. Blyzky

The article proves the need for a deeper study of the essence and specifics of anti-crisis management of enterprises in Ukraine with the aim of accelerating the process of exiting the economy from a crisis state. The international standard ISO 22301 is considered for the main indicators of effective business continuity management, which includes preventive risk management and structured management in emergency situations. An analysis of key business risks of enterprises was carried out. Examples of anti-crisis management at the international level as a tool for improving the business processes of enterprises are given. The application of the “Product-market” matrix is demonstrated. The directions of the development of anti-crisis management and management decisions aimed at strengthening the trends of the development of anti-crisis management of enterprises in Ukraine are substantiated. Within the framework of the conducted research, the need for a more in-depth analysis of the essence, content and specifics of anti-crisis management of enterprises was established. This necessity is due to the fact that anti-crisis management is a key tool for ensuring the financial stability of economic entities and an activator of the country’s socio-economic development, which in the conditions of modern Ukraine acquires special importance. Unfortunately, the involvement of Ukrainian enterprises in modern anti-crisis management procedures, even in the pre-war period, was insufficient, which prevents the full potential of this tool from being used. In order to improve the situation in the work, the ways of increasing the involvement of business entities in the global experience in the field of anti-crisis management of enterprises are substantiated. Further research should be aimed at developing a roadmap for creating conditions for training specialists in anti-crisis management of enterprises in Ukraine. This will speed up the process of bringing Ukraine out of the crisis state in the post-war period.

Jean Slick

A harmful untended consequence of the protective public health orders issued during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic was an increase in gender-based violence (GBV). This study examined the response of federal, provincial, and territorial governments in Canada to GBV during the peak of the pandemic (between February 2020 and October 2021) through a review of relevant media releases. These documents were then assessed for evidence of effective crisis leadership and compared to established international guidance for addressing GBV in disasters and other humanitarian emergencies. Five major themes emerged from the media review with respect to government communications and actions. First, governments announced funding to organizations working in the domestic violence sector to help support their ability to adapt their services during the pandemic. Second, media releases described efforts undertaken by governments to expand several different types of support services for victims of GBV. Third, governments promoted awareness of the ongoing problem of GBV, as well as its increase during the pandemic. Fourth, government communications acknowledged heightened risk for some populations, including Indigenous women, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex populations, and those at risk of human trafficking. Fifth, legislative and policy changes were announced by some governments during the pandemic. An analysis of the timing of communications suggests that only the federal government and one third of provinces and territories took early action to address the increase in GBV during the pandemic, which is consistent with international guidance that calls for the use of the precautionary principle. Most of the governments responded to the GBV crisis late or not at all. Although the analysis of media releases alone is insufficient to establish the scope of government actions taken to address GBV during the pandemic, public communication related to ongoing threats is an expected crisis communication competency. This study offers recommendations for practice, which might help address gender inequity in disasters.

Q. Bian, Danning Zhao, Ben Ma

Abstract Public sectors typically learn from crises, providing them the opportunity to improve the performance of crisis management. Through thematic analysis, this study maps out the evolution process of China’s pandemic response and emergency management systems and summarizes the characteristics of China’s crisis learning process, crisis learning subject, and crisis learning content. The findings indicate that China’s pandemic response and emergency management systems have the characteristics of crisis learning with gradual adjustments and continuous innovation. Specifically, under the impetus of China’s political factors, its pandemic response and emergency management systems have been able to learn from crises and have a complete crisis learning process. This crisis learning process includes adaptive learning, as well as single, double, and triple-loop learning. There is also a clear selection preference at various government levels, corresponding crisis learning processes and stages, and the path dependence of crisis learning content. Moreover, political accountability, attention, and pressure are the key factors opening the window of crisis learning, but the decision-making authority is the decisive factor of crisis learning in China’s centralized context. This study provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolution and changes in the government’s crisis learning model and puts forward policy implications.

Сергей Леонидович Кравцов, Анастасия Константиновна Попова, Дарья Сергеевна Маркова et al.

Цель. Достижение информационными системами о природных пожарах (ИСПП) Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации современного уровня (как по степени автоматизации вычислений, так и по качеству представляемой информации) в ситуации уже изменившихся и ожидаемых погодных условий. Методы. Качественно новый результат предлагается получить путем внедрения передовых технологий, основанных на обработке разнородных данных (наземных, спутниковых и т.д.) за длительный период времени, – подхода больших данных. Результаты. Проведен анализ функционирующих в настоящее время ИСПП показавший, что существующие ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации, основанные на разработанных в 50-х гг. XX в. комплексных метеорологических показателях и созданные отдельно друг от друга без единого видения облика системы, осуществляют прогнозный мониторинг пожарной опасности на недостаточном для современных условий уровне, существенно уступая зарубежным аналогам. Сформулированы предложения по совершенствованию ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации таким образом, чтобы они представляли собой комплексные системы, охватывающие полный цикл прогнозного мониторинга пожарной опасности: от предупреждения и подготовки к природным пожарам до анализа причиненного ими ущерба. Для более полного отражения картины пожарной опасности и учета особенностей изменившихся погодных условий предлагается перейти от комплексных метеорологических показателей Н.А. Диченкова (принят в Республике Беларусь) и В.Г. Нестерова (принят в Российской Федерации) к индексу пожарной опасности по метеорологическим условиям FWI (Fire Weather Index, FWI). Это также позволит гармонизировать оценку пожарной опасности на территории Республики Беларусь, Российской Федерации и прилегающих стран. Область применения исследований. Изложенные предложения могут быть использованы при совершенствовании ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации.

Xiaowen Shao, Ran Ye, Jinghong Wang et al.

China has a population of 1.4 billion, ranking first in the world. With the increase in China's economic development and population, the construction of various types of buildings in China is also increasing, and associated safety hazards are gradually increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to study the safe evacuation of people inside and outside the building in emergency situations. In recent years, some scholars have used the traditional statistical method of literature review to analyze the research frontiers in the field of safety evacuation, but few scholars have used bibliometric methods to analyze and review the current situation of research in this field. Therefore, this paper adopts the analysis method combining bibliometrics and traditional literature review to summarize the research status of crowd evacuation published by Chinese scholars in the Web of Science core database, and uses VOSviewer to analyze the authors, institutions, and keywords of the literature search results, so as to identify their research hotspots. The results show that the last three years have been the peak period of crowd evacuation studies, with many disciplines involved in this field and they are closely related, led by the number of papers related to architecture. Simulation, model, behavior, among others, have been the most used keywords in this research field, and the research on path planning and exit selection behavior has also increased significantly. According to the keyword analysis, three hot spots of safety evacuation research, namely large-scale group evacuation, evacuation path planning and evacuation exit selection are analyzed in detail.