Rafah R. Ismail, Saadiyah H. Halos, B. Q. Al-Abudi
Dust storms are typical in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Middle East; the frequency and severity of dust storms have grown dramatically in Iraq in recent years. This paper identifies the dust storm sources in Iraq using remotely sensed data from Meteosat-spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) bands. Extracted combined satellite images and simulated frontal dust storm trajectories, using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, are used to identify the most influential sources in the Middle East and Iraq. Out of 132 dust storms in Iraq during 2020 – 2023, the most frequent occurred in the spring and summer. A dust source frequency percentage map (DSFPM) is generated using ArcGIS software. The regions located in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan are the largest dust storm sources. New dust sources are identified in Iraq ’ s southwestern and western regions, such as Al-Nukhaib, Wadi Hauran, and Sinjar, along with new sources in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. The most common sources are concentrated in Iraq (55.31%), mainly in the Tigris and Euphrates basin, western desert, and Al-Jazeera region, followed by Syria (19.55%), Saudi Arabia (12.29%), and Jordan (11.73%). The highest dust storm source frequency in Iraq is found in the Al-Samawa desert ’ s southern region (27.37%). Also, the highest frequency of dust sources from each country is determined. Knowing the origins and trajectories of dust storms will enhance treatments of these causes and their consequences on the environment and socio-economics of the region. It contributes to the support of specialised regional agencies to mitigate this phenomenon.
This paper explores Pakistan’s potential to emerge as a middle power by taking advantage of its strategic geographic position at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Focusing on economic regional integration, it assesses Pakistan’s participation in various development projects such as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and memberships in ECO and SCO, which aim to boost regional connectivity through trade routes, maritime assets/resources, and infrastructure projects. Despite institutional weaknesses and geopolitical hurdles, Pakistan’s commitment to regional integration, optimisation of its maritime and overland corridors, holds the key to enhance its economic and strategic influence in the region. This paper argues that Pakistan’s true strategic value lies in integrating these domains into a unified connectivity framework. The land-maritime connection suggests that Pakistan can fully capitalise economically by synchronising overland trade routes with maritime resources economy and elevate its regional influence. This paper explores how Pakistan can leverage regional supply chains particularly through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), trade with Central Asia, and connectivity with South and West Asia to enhance its strategic influence. By integrating into regional production networks, Pakistan can transition from a passive transit economy to an active supply chain hub, fostering economic resilience and geopolitical relevance. This research contributes to three academic discourse: i. middle power studies by introducing material connectivity as an influencing path; ii. regional integration literature by demonstrating how physical infrastructure enables institutional cooperation; and iii. development economics by showing how transit states can escape the landlocked mentality. The findings suggest that middle power status in the ‘Asian Century’ may depend less on traditional military or economic domains /parametres, and more on a state’s ability to position itself as the indispensable connector between emerging economic spaces.
We propose a field-theoretic framework that models money-debt dynamics in economic systems through a direct analogy to particle-hole creation in condensed matter physics. In this formulation, issuing credit generates a symmetric pair-money as a particle-like excitation and debt as its hole-like counterpart-embedded within a monetary vacuum field. The model is formalized via a second-quantized Hamiltonian that incorporates time-dependent perturbations to represent real-world effects such as interest and profit, which drive asymmetry and systemic imbalance. This framework successfully captures both macroeconomic phenomena, including quantitative easing (QE) and gold-backed monetary regimes, and microeconomic credit creation, under a unified quantum-like formalism. In particular, QE is interpreted as generating entangled-like pairs of currency and bonds, exhibiting systemic correlations akin to nonlocal quantum interactions. Asset-backed systems, on the other hand, are modeled as coherent superpositions that collapse upon use. This approach provides physicists with a rigorous and intuitive toolset to analyze economic behavior using many-body theory, laying the groundwork for a new class of models in econophysics and interdisciplinary field analysis.
We introduce KRED (Korea Research Economic Database), a new FRED MD style macroeconomic dataset for South Korea. KRED is constructed by aggregating 88 key monthly time series from multiple official sources (e.g., Bank of Korea ECOS, Statistics Korea KOSIS) into a unified, publicly available database. The dataset is aligned with the FRED MD format, enabling standardized transformations and direct comparability; an Appendix maps each Korean series to its FRED MD counterpart. Using a balanced panel of 80 series from 2009 to 2024, we extract four principal components via PCA that explain approximately 40% of the total variance. These four factors have intuitive economic interpretations, capturing monetary conditions, labor market activity, real output, and housing demand, analogous to diffusion indexes summarizing broad economic movements. Notably, the factor based diffusion indexes derived from KRED clearly trace major macroeconomic fluctuations over the sample period such as the 2020 COVID 19 recession. Our results demonstrate that KRED's factor structure can effectively condense complex economic information into a few informative indexes, yielding new insights into South Korea's business cycles and co movements.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has been positioned as a revolutionary alternative to national currencies, attracting immense public and academic interest. This paper presents a critical evaluation of this claim, suggesting that Bitcoin faces significant structural barriers to qualifying as money. It synthesizes critiques from two distinct schools of economic thought - Post-Keynesianism and the Austrian School - and validates their conclusions with rigorous technical analysis. From a Post-Keynesian perspective, it is argued that Bitcoin does not function as money because it is not a debt-based IOU and fails to exhibit the essential properties required for a stable monetary asset (Vianna, 2021). Concurrently, from an Austrian viewpoint, it is shown to be inconsistent with a strict interpretation of Mises's Regression Theorem, as it lacks prior non-monetary value and has not achieved the status of the most saleable commodity (Peniaz and Kavaliou, 2024). These theoretical arguments are then supported by an empirical analysis of Bitcoin's extreme volatility, hard-coded scalability limits, fragile market structure, and insecure long-term economic design. The paper concludes that Bitcoin is more accurately characterized as a novel speculative asset whose primary legacy may be the technological innovation it has spurred, rather than its viability as a monetary standard.
This paper develops an economic model of the Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) attention economy in contemporary armed conflict. We conceptualize attention (e.g. social media views, followers, likes) as revenue, and time and risk spent in analysis as costs. Using utility functions and simple game theoretic setups, we show how OSINT actors (amateurs, journalists, analysts, and state operatives) allocate effort to maximize net attention benefit. We incorporate strategic behaviors such as a first mover advantage (racing to publish) and prisoner's dilemma scenarios (to share information or hold it back). In empirical case studies, especially the Ukraine conflict actors like the UAV unit Madyar's Birds and volunteer channels like Kavkazfighter, illustrate how battlefront reporting translates into digital revenue (attention) at real cost. We draw on recent literature and data (e.g., public follower counts, viral posts) to examine trends such as OSINT virality. Finally, we discuss policy implications for balancing transparency with operational security, citing calls for verification ethics and attention sustaining narratives. Our analysis bridges conflict studies and economics, highlighting OSINT as both a public good and a competitive product in today's information war.
This study develops the E-Rule, a novel composite recession indicator that integrates financial market and labor market signals to improve the precision of recession forecasting. Combining the yield curve and the Sahm rule, the E-Rule provides a holistic and early-warning measure of economic downturns. Using historical data from 1976 onward, we empirically evaluate the E-Rule's predictive power relative to traditional indicators. The analysis employs machine learning techniques, including logistic regression, support vector machines, gradient boosting, and random forests, to assess predictive accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that the E-Rule offers a superior lead time in forecasting recessions and improves stability over existing methods.
Green ammonia is emerging as a strategic intermediary within green energy supply chains, serving effectively as both an industrial commodity and hydrogen carrier. This study provides a techno-economic analysis of green ammonia supply chains, comparing cost-effective pathways from global production to European consumers, and evaluates ammonia alongside alternative hydrogen carriers. Gaseous hydrogen consistently remains the most economical import option for Europe, though ammonia holds a narrowing cost advantage over liquid hydrogen (from 16 % in 2030 to 10 % by 2040). Competitive ammonia suppliers, notably Morocco, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, benefit from low renewable energy costs, with significant price reductions expected by 2040, driven by falling costs for electricity, electrolysers, and conversion technologies. Optimal transport modes vary by consumer demand and distance: trucks are ideal for low demands at all distances, rail for medium ranges, and pipelines for high-demand scenarios. By 2040, ammonia will primarily serve direct-use applications, as hydrogen consumers increasingly shift to direct hydrogen supplies. Policymakers should prioritize pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen distribution, cautiously invest in ammonia's short- to medium-term infrastructure advantages, and limit long-term reliance on ammonia as a hydrogen carrier to mitigate stranded asset risks.
There is a projected increase in offshore wind energy generation in the United States over the next three decades, driven by legislative commitments and government funding. Like other renewable technologies, the construction of offshore wind farms has environmental impacts and spillover effects that must be assessed. Developing offshore wind as a reliable domestic energy source requires a multiregional analysis of economic and environmental effects of constructing projects along lakefronts and coastal regions. Although no commercial offshore wind farms currently operate in the United States, seven states have announced capacity commitments exceeding 28 gigawatts by 2035. This study evaluates the spatial economic and environmental impacts of planned projects by linking the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool (ORBIT) with a multiregional input-output model of the U.S. economy developed in the Virtual Industrial Ecology Lab. ORBIT provides capital investment requirements for installation, which are combined with the model to estimate economic spillover effects. Environmental impacts are assessed using a newly developed multiregional greenhouse gas emissions dataset for the U.S. to capture supply chain emissions of offshore wind construction. The five projects analyzed require 16.3 billion dollars in capital investment and generate 27.6 billion dollars in direct and indirect economic impacts across the country. Emissions results show that states active in energy generation are most affected, but impacts can be reduced by decarbonizing the grid. A carbon payback analysis indicates the projects offset construction-phase emissions in less than a year. The framework highlights which states experience the greatest spillover effects in terms of emissions and economic activity required to support offshore wind expansion.
Sharmishtha Raghuvanshi, Supriya Sanjay Nikam, Manisha Karne
et al.
This research examines the persistent challenge of health inequalities in India, departing from the conventional focus on aggregate improvements in mortality rates. While India has achieved progress in overall health indicators since independence, the distribution of health outcomes remains uneven, a fact starkly highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the socio-economic determinants of health disparities using the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS)-5 data from 2019-20, focusing on both national and state-level analyses, specifically for Maharashtra. Employing a health economics framework, the analysis delves into individual-level data, population shares, self-reported morbidity prevalence, and treatment patterns across diverse socio-economic groups. Regression analyses, stratified by gender, are conducted to quantify the impact of socio-economic factors on reported morbidity. Furthermore, a Fairlie decomposition, an extension of the Oaxaca decomposition, is utilised to dissect the gender gap in morbidity, assessing the extent to which observed differences are attributable to explanatory variables. The findings reveal a significant burden of self-reported morbidity, with approximately one in nine individuals in India and one in eight in Maharashtra reporting morbidity. Notably, women exhibit nearly double the morbidity rate compared to men. The decomposition analysis identifies key drivers of gender disparities. In India, marital status exacerbates these differences, while insurance coverage, caste, urban residence, and wealth mitigate them. In Maharashtra, urban residence and marital status widen the gap, whereas religion, caste, and insurance coverage narrow it. This research underscores the importance of targeted policy interventions to address the complex interplay of socio-economic factors driving health inequalities in India.
Regional Refugee Response Plans (RRPs) have emerged as key protection frameworks in the context of displacement. In line with the UNHCR Refugee Coordination Model (RCM), RRPs involve multi-partner and multi-sector response strategies for priority areas established based on region-specific needs. Across RRPs, violence against women (VAW) constitutes a priority area within operational and funding structures on gender-based violence (GBV). The operational and funding structures on GBV in the response plans for the humanitarian situations in Ukraine and Venezuela reveal important insights for economic mechanisms and impacts of displacement on VAW, especially when examined through feminist economics discourse. To shed light on this, this article analyzes sectoral infrastructures and partnerships as indicative operational structures, and funding streams and funding recipients as indicative funding structures. The analysis focuses on high-risk GBV spaces reflective of prevailing challenges in the implementation of the response plans. HIGHLIGHTS Economic–political power relations inform discrepancies in global migration governance. Flexibility in responses to humanitarian situations leads to incoherent mechanisms and impacts in addressing VAW. Discrepancies are particularly problematic in high-risk GBV settings, as in the cases of Ukraine and Venezuela.
Igor Samuel de Oliveira Pinto, Marcio Silva Borges, Luana de Oliveira Santos
et al.
Lançado em 2003 e regulamentado em 2012, o Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos (PAA) foi considerado uma das principais ações estruturantes do Programa Fome Zero e representou uma inovadora política pública capaz de conciliar dois objetivos importantes: incentivar a agricultura familiar, promovendo a sua inclusão econômica e social, com o fomento à produção; e promover o acesso à alimentação em quantidade, qualidade e regularidade necessária às pessoas em situação de insegurança alimentar e nutricional. O artigo apresenta o PAA como política pública de promoção da agricultura familiar e, para tanto, objetiva-se abordar a implementação e a execução do programa no Campus Nova Iguaçu/RJ de uma Instituição Federal de Ensino Superior (Ifes), por meio da modalidade compra institucional, em atendimento ao seu restaurante universitário, buscando apresentar as potencialidades, fragilidades e os desafios de sua implantação. A análise dos resultados da Matriz SWOT indicou que, embora o projeto não tenha atingido o percentual de 30% exigido por lei, o PAA-CI do Campus Nova Iguaçu mostrou um horizonte promissor.
This paper derives "scaling laws"--empirical relationships between the training compute of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their performance--for economic outcomes. In a preregistered online experiment, 300 professional translators completed 1,800 tasks using one of 13 LLMs (or a control). A tenfold increase in model compute improved task completion speed by 12.3%, grades by 0.18 standard deviations, and earnings per minute by 16.1%. Gains were four times larger for lower-skilled workers. These findings suggest continued model scaling could boost U.S. productivity by at least 6.9% over the next decade.
This paper investigates the financial economics of simple periodic systems. Well-established financial procedures appear to be complicated, and lead to partially biased results. Probability theory is applied, and the focus is on the finances of simple periodic growth processes, in the absence of intermediate divestments. The expected value of the profit rate, derived from accounting measures on an accrual basis, does not depend on the capitalization path. The expected value of capitalization is path dependent. Because of the path-dependent capitalization, the return rate on capital is path-dependent, and the time-average return rate on capital differs from the expected value of the return rate on capital for the growth cycle. The internal rate of return, defined through a compounding equation, is path-independent, thereby differing from the expected value of the rate of return on capital. It is shown that within a production estate, the area-average of internal rate of return is not representative of the rate of return on capital. The growth cycle length maximizing the return rate on equity is independent of market interest rate. Leverage effect enters the microeconomics of the growth processes through a separate leverage equation, where the leverage coefficient may reach positive or negative values. The leverage effect on the internal rate of return and the net present value are discussed. Both effects are solvable, resulting in incorrect estimates.
Ulfah Dwity Jelvi, Adrienne Arsya Haryadi, Bakti Nusantara
et al.
Residential areas are often a reflection of the disparities that exist in society, with some areas experiencing poverty, unequal access to basic services, and limited economic opportunities. The case study taken in this research was in Ledhok Timoho Village in Muja Muju, Yogyakarta. This village faces problems with limited infrastructure, uncertain land ownership, and high levels of socio-economic inequality among its residents. This research discusses the role and participation of the community and government in designing and implementing solutions such as developing green open spaces, poverty alleviation programs, and strengthening local culture and their impact on environmental sustainability and the welfare of the residents of Ledhok Village. This research uses a qualitative method by looking at the socio-economic conditions and conditions in Ledhok Timoho Village and the surrounding area and then linking them to the SDGs. Data obtained using observation and interview methods with local residents in Ledhok Timoho Village. This was done to achieve the aim of this research, namely to identify social disparities that occur between Ledhok Timoho Village and the surrounding area, so the results obtained are that Ledhok Timoho Village and its outer areas had significant differences in various fields such as economic, social, environmental, urban/urban, suburban/suburban, and national, and regional development.