Hasil untuk "Demography. Population. Vital events"

Emmanuel Deruty, Pascal Arbez-Nicolas, David Meredith

Vitalic is an electronic music producer who has been active since 2001. Vitalic's 2005 track "No Fun" features a main synthesiser part built from a sequence of single inharmonic tones that evoke two simultaneous melodies. This part serves as a starting point for examining Vitalic's use of tones that do not operate on the principle of acoustic resonance. The study considers tones that evoke two or more simultaneous pitches and examines various inharmonic partial layouts. Examples outside Vitalic's music are also provided to suggest that similar tone properties can be found elsewhere in contemporary popular music.

Ehsan Sadeghi, Karina Skurule, Alessandro Chiumento et al.

Recent advancements in non-invasive health monitoring technologies underscore the potential of mm-Wave Frequency-Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar in real-time vital sign detection. This paper introduces a novel dataset, the first of its kind, derived from mm-Wave FMCW radar, meticulously capturing heart rate and respiratory rate under various conditions. Comprising data from ten participants, including scenarios with elevated heart rates and participants with diverse physiological profiles such as asthma and meditation practitioners, this dataset is validated against the Polar H10 sensor, ensuring its reliability for scientific research. This dataset can offer a significant resource for developing and testing algorithms aimed at non-invasive health monitoring, promising to facilitate advancements in remote health monitoring technologies.

Hannah O'Dair, Sarah Cummins, Ira Ashia et al.

Objectives Clerical review is an integral part of linkage and is fundamental to quality assurance. CROW is a low dependency, adaptable, clerical matching tool that has been deployed across 40 linkage projects. Due to limitations of the interface, with the initial version (including the limited ability to view large clusters); this project sought to re-develop the tool as a flask application.   Approach Our approach was to transform the existing CROW desktop application into a Flask (web based) application. Flask was chosen because it is a flexible web framework that enabled the development of a more dynamic interface, as well as better integration with the infrastructure of secure environments. We also engaged with accessibility experts to ensure the inclusivity of our product. Once the development was completed, testing was carried out by a range of users and stakeholders, to identify further issues and bugs for resolution.   Results The successful redevelopment of CROW into a Flask application improved functionality, usability, parametrisation, and accessibility of the tool. Feedback from users indicates that because of using CROW, the clerical matching experience has improved vastly. Users reported that CROW increased accessibility, reducing eye strain and fatigue. CROW also increases efficiency and leads to better decision making.   Conclusion The successful redevelopment of CROW is a significant improvement to the clerical review process for data linkage projects.    Implications CROW is open-source and low dependency so could be adapted to work in most environments. Therefore, it could be adapted and used by the wider data linkage community.

H. Abbasizanjani, S. Bedston, Lucy Robinson et al.

Objectives‘Long COVID’ (LC) is broadly defined as signs and symptoms that continue or develop after the acute phase of COVID-19, and can affect cardiovascular, respiratory and other organ systems. Using electronic health records, we investigated clinical coding of LC in primary and secondary care for the population of Wales. MethodsWe conducted a cohort study for the population of Wales, using anonymised individual-level linked data in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. We used the Welsh COVID-19 e-cohort (doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043010), which consists of all people (adults and children) alive and resident in Wales from 1st January 2020. To this e-cohort we linked primary and secondary care, COVID-19 testing, and ethnic group data. We then calculated the proportion of people with a LC diagnosis code (in primary and secondary care data) overall and stratified by demographic variables. ResultsOf 3.5m residents, 7,696 (0.2%) had a LC clinical diagnosis. Compared with the general population, a higher proportion of people with LC were female, middle age, white, and hospitalised within 28 days of a confirmed COVID-19 infection. LC affected all socioeconomic groups, as assessed using the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation. When looking at LC diagnosis codes in primary care, 30.9% of practices in SAIL have not used these codes at all. And the number of recorded events was low until the end of January 2021, after which there was an increase in coding. These findings are likely a substantial underestimate of LC prevalence in Wales. Earlier estimates from self-reported surveys, such as the Office for National Statistics, are much higher, ranging anywhere between 3-5%. ConclusionLow recording rates of LC and variation between practices could be due to a delay in introducing clinical coding and lack of presentation/recording. Understanding prevalence of LC is vital for addressing the scale of the problem. Therefore developing additional data-driven approaches is necessary to obtain an accurate prevalence estimate.

Julian Kern, Bastian Wiederhold

We propose an extension of the classical $Λ$-Fleming-Viot model to intrinsically varying population sizes. During events, instead of replacing a proportion of the population, a random mass dies and a, possibly different, random mass of new individuals is added. The model can also incorporate a drift term, representing infinitesimally small, but frequent events. We investigate elementary properties of the model, analyse its relation to the $Λ$-Fleming-Viot model and describe a duality relationship. Through the lookdown framework, we provide a forward-in-time analysis of fixation and coming down from infinity. Furthermore, we present a new duality argument allowing one to deduce well-posedness of the measure-valued process without the necessity of proving uniqueness of the associated lookdown martingale problem.

Thais Guerrero Padrón

In most European Union (EU) Member States, self-employed individuals receive, on average, lower retirement pensions than employees. Furthermore, the number of self-employed pensioners is lower, and there is a significant proportion of self-employed workers in the EU who are not entitled to a retirement pension. The situation is even more delicate for the new self-employed, as their mode of labour market participation, career trajectory, and the income level they reach can potentially compromise their future pension prospects. This paper analyses the position of self-employed workers within national social security systems, with a particular focus on their methods of contribution and the consequential impact on their ability to access adequate retirement pensions as a form of replacement income, thus avoiding the risk of poverty and ensuring a decent standard of living in old age. In this area, the Member States and the EU interact within the framework of their respective competences, with the manifest aim of improving the social protection of self-employed workers in their senior years.

Vitalie Stirba

This article aims to analyze the effects of cancer mortality on life expectancy at birth in 15 European high-income countries between 1950 and 2019. To establish the 1950–2019 time series of deaths from cancer, mortality data were harmonized from the available datasets of the World Health Organization Mortality database, coded according to the International Classification of Diseases of the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th editions. The estimation of the cancer mortality effect on the life expectancy at birth was performed using the algorithm of stepwise replacement for the life expectancy decomposition. The increase in cancer mortality contributed to a decline in overall life expectancy growth until the mid-1990s, coinciding with the aging cohorts of heavy smokers and a long-term reduction in mortality from other non-communicable diseases. Subsequently, since the 1990s, the reduction in cancer mortality has contributed to a significant increase in life expectancy at birth, especially in males. Reduction in cancer mortality was the outcome of various factors, such as alcohol and tobacco control policies, advances in cancer prevention and its treatment, general increase in population well-being, and reduction in risk-factors.

Maya Fernandya Siahaan, Trias Mahmudiono, Mahmudah Mahmudah et al.

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a serious health problem that continues to increase and can cause morbidity and mortality in many countries. India as a country with the second highest number of DM cases in the world after China has around 77 million cases in adults aged 20-79 years and is estimated to increase by 134 million in 2045. The cause of the incidence of DM in adults is multifactorial. The purpose of this study was to determine and analyze the risk factors associated with the incidence of DM in adults aged 15-49 years in India. This quantitative study uses a cross-sectional approach. This research data source was secondary data from the 2015-2016 National Family Health Survey (NHFS-4). The study sample size was a male adult population aged 15-49 years in 157 rural and urban areas in India. The independent variables studied were age, meat consumption, alcohol consumption, fried food consumption, smoking, economic status, education level, place of residence, and employment status, while the dependent variable is the incidence of DM. The results from the chi-square show that there were relationships between age, meat consumption, alcohol consumption, fried food consumption, smoking, economic status, education level, place of residence, and the incidence of DM in adult men aged 15-49 years in India. The results of the logistic regression test showed that age, smoking habits, and economic status had a significant effect. Meanwhile, the most influential factor was the higher economic status with an OR of 0.628 times higher having type 2 diabetes.

Sarmad Mehrdad, Farah E. Shamout, Yao Wang et al.

Unrecognized patient deterioration can lead to high morbidity and mortality. Most existing deterioration prediction models require a large number of clinical information, typically collected in hospital settings, such as medical images or comprehensive laboratory tests. This is infeasible for telehealth solutions and highlights a gap in deterioration prediction models that are based on minimal data, which can be recorded at a large scale in any clinic, nursing home, or even at the patient's home. In this study, we propose and develop a prognostic model that predicts if a patient will experience deterioration in the forthcoming 3-24 hours. The model sequentially processes routine triadic vital signs: (a) oxygen saturation, (b) heart rate, and (c) temperature. The model is also provided with basic patient information, including sex, age, vaccination status, vaccination date, and status of obesity, hypertension, or diabetes. We train and evaluate the model using data collected from 37,006 COVID-19 patients at NYU Langone Health in New York, USA. The model achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.808-0.880 for 3-24 hour deterioration prediction. We also conduct occlusion experiments to evaluate the importance of each input feature, where the results reveal the significance of continuously monitoring the variations of the vital signs. Our results show the prospect of accurate deterioration forecast using a minimum feature set that can be relatively easily obtained using wearable devices and self-reported patient information.

Md Farhan Tasnim Oshim, Toral Surti, Stephanie Carreiro et al.

Efficient and accurate detection of subtle motion generated from small objects in noisy environments, as needed for vital sign monitoring, is challenging, but can be substantially improved with magnification. We developed a complex Gabor filter-based decomposition method to amplify phases at different spatial wavelength levels to magnify motion and extract 1D motion signals for fundamental frequency estimation. The phase-based complex Gabor filter outputs are processed and then used to train machine learning models that predict respiration and heart rate with greater accuracy. We show that our proposed technique performs better than the conventional temporal FFT-based method in clinical settings, such as sleep laboratories and emergency departments, as well for a variety of human postures.

Hang Yu, Brian Seymour, Yijun Wang et al.

Gravitational-wave (GW) radiation from a coalescing compact binary is a standard siren as the luminosity distance of each event can be directly measured from the amplitude of the signal. One possibility to constrain cosmology using the GW siren is to perform statistical inference on a population of binary black hole (BBH) events. In essence, this statistical method can be viewed as follows. We can modify the shape of the distribution of observed BBH events by changing cosmological parameters until it eventually matches the distribution constructed from an astrophysical population model, thereby allowing us to determine the cosmological parameters. In this work, we derive the Cramér-Rao bound for both cosmological parameters and those governing the astrophysical population model from this statistical dark siren method by examining the Fisher information contained in the event distribution. Our study provides analytical insights and enables fast yet accurate estimations of the statistical accuracy of dark siren cosmology. Furthermore, we consider the bias in cosmology due to unmodeled substructures in the merger rate and the mass distribution. We find a $1\%$ deviation in the astrophysical model can lead to a more than $1\%$ error in the Hubble constant. This could limit the accuracy of dark siren cosmology when there are more than $10^4$ BBH events detected.

Alex J. Kemp, Amanda I. Karakas, Andrew R. Casey et al.

Novae are some of the most commonly detected optical transients and have the potential to provide valuable information about binary evolution. Binary population synthesis codes have emerged as the most effective tool for modelling populations of binary systems, but such codes have traditionally employed greatly simplified nova physics, precluding detailed study. In this work, we implement a model treating H and He novae as individual events into the binary population synthesis code \binaryc. This treatment of novae represents a significant improvement on the `averaging' treatment currently employed in modern population synthesis codes. We discuss the evolutionary pathways leading to these phenomena and present nova event rates and distributions of several important physical parameters. Most novae are produced on massive white dwarfs, with approximately 70 and 55 per cent of nova events occurring on O/Ne white dwarfs for H and He novae respectively. Only 15 per cent of H-nova systems undergo a common-envelope phase, but these systems are responsible for the majority of H nova events. All He-accreting He-nova systems are considered post-common-envelope systems, and almost all will merge with their donor star in a gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We estimate the current annual rate of novae in M31 (Andromeda) to be approximately $41 \pm 4$ for H novae, underpredicting the current observational estimate of $65^{+15}_{-16}$, and $0.14\pm0.015$ for He novae. When varying common-envelope parameters, the H nova rate varies between 20 and 80 events per year.

Gerardo Aquino, Mauro Bologna

We consider the effect of non-constant parameters on the human-forest interaction logistic model coupled with human technological growth introduced in "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis"[1]. In recent years in fact, a decrease in human population growth rate has emerged which can be measured to about 1.7% drop per year since 1960 value which coincides with latest UN projections for next decades up to year 2100 [2]. We therefore consider here the effect of decreasing human population growth-rate on the aforementioned model and we evaluate its effect on the probability of survival of human civilisation without going through a catastrophic collapse in population. We find that for realistic values of the human population carrying capacity of the earth (measured by parameter beta) this decrease would not affect previous results leading to a low probability of avoiding a catastrophic collapse. For larger more optimistic values of beta instead, a decrease in growth-rate would tilt the probability in favour of a positive outcome, i.e. from 10-20% up to even 95% likelihood of avoiding collapse.

Noriyuki Tonami, Keisuke Imoto, Yuki Okamoto et al.

In conventional sound event detection (SED) models, two types of events, namely, those that are present and those that do not occur in an acoustic scene, are regarded as the same type of events. The conventional SED methods cannot effectively exploit the difference between the two types of events. All time frames of sound events that do not occur in an acoustic scene are easily regarded as inactive in the scene, that is, the events are easy-to-train. The time frames of the events that are present in a scene must be classified as active in addition to inactive in the acoustic scene, that is, the events are difficult-to-train. To take advantage of the training difficulty, we apply curriculum learning into SED, where models are trained from easy- to difficult-to-train events. To utilize the curriculum learning, we propose a new objective function for SED, wherein the events are trained from easy- to difficult-to-train events. Experimental results show that the F-score of the proposed method is improved by 10.09 percentage points compared with that of the conventional binary cross entropy-based SED.

Eduardo Cerón Aparicio

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo analizar los cambios en la configuración productiva y territorial de las áreas rurales que se localizan más allá de la periferia urbana, que difieren por completo del periurbano, pero que son parte de los intersticios rurales que conforman la estructura metropolitana. Todo ello, desde la mirada de la nueva ruralidad, que alude a los cambios en la funcionalidad de las sociedades rurales, como consecuencia del reciente proceso urbano. La estrategia metodológica se centró en un análisis deductivo de la información derivada de las entrevistas. El lugar de trabajo y las actividades productivas realizadas por los residentes de San Miguel Atepoxco, permitieron definir la conformación de la estructura productiva y los vínculos laborales entre el ámbito rural y su entorno rural urbano circundante. De acuerdo con el análisis, se observa, por un lado, una estructura ocupacional diversificada, con un claro predominio de las actividades no agrícolas, en su mayoría, terciarias y; por otro, una preeminencia del mercado de trabajo rural, puesto que gran parte de los empleos se reparte en localidades rurales (menos de 5,000 mil habitantes) a no más de los 10 kilómetros.

D. Bakharev, E. Glavatskaya

This article develops a theoretical basis for studying the socio-demographic evolution of elites in local/urban historical communities. The authors analyzed the methodological and terminological apparatus used in modern elite studies and formulated the concept of “social elite” based on synthesizing the civilizational aspects of elite theory and modernization theory. The social elite is understood as a minority that is a reference group for the rest of society in the sphere of sociodemographic practices. A fruitful study of such an object is realistic only by employing mass nominative sources that recorded demographic events in individual lives. The most important nominative source which contains demographic and, in addition, social information about the demographically representative communities of imperial Russia, are metricheskie knigi — parish vital events records. The potential of this type of source is most effectively realized by transcribing the information into databases for subsequent quantitative analysis. The research was carried out based on the URAPP — “Ural Population Project” — a comprehensive electronic resource containing information from the Orthodox parishes records in Ekaterinburg for 1880–1919, now extended to about 57000 entries. The initial adaptation of the proposed model to the historical context of late imperial Ekaterinburg enabled us to identify a community of townspeople — the parish of the Orthodox Epiphany Cathedral — that was more modernized than the rest of the city. Concentrating the research focus on socio-demographic processes among the parishioners of this community at the individual level, will in the future make it possible to represent more fully the evolutionary mechanisms of the social elite in the late Imperial Russian city. The proposed scheme can be used to study the problems of Russian social history in the late 19th — early 20th centuries, primarily to identify the agents driving the socio-demographic modernization.

Yaron Oz, Ittai Rubinstein, Muli Safra

We model and calculate the fraction of infected population necessary to reach herd immunity, taking into account the heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, as well as the correlation between those two parameters. We show that these cause the effective reproduction number to decrease more rapidly, and consequently have a drastic effect on the estimate of the necessary percentage of the population that has to contract the disease for herd immunity to be reached. We quantify the difference between the size of the infected population when the effective reproduction number decreases below 1 vs. the ultimate fraction of population that had contracted the disease. This sheds light on an important distinction between herd immunity and the end of the disease and highlights the importance of limiting the spread of the disease even if we plan to naturally reach herd immunity. We analyze the effect of various lock-down scenarios on the resulting final fraction of infected population. We discuss implications to COVID-19 and other pandemics and compare our theoretical results to population-based simulations. We consider the dependence of the disease spread on the architecture of the infectiousness graph and analyze different graph architectures and the limitations of the graph models.

Clifford O. Odimegwu, Yemi Adewoyin

Abstract Fertility patterns in Nigeria are high and widely skewed away from the targets of the country’s population policy. As population growth is fueled by natural increase and migration, and with spatial disparities in fertility preferences among the different ethnic groups in Nigeria, this study investigates the fertility behavior of ethnic migrants in their destinations, the place-effects on such behavior, and the convergence or otherwise of the behavior with fertility behaviors in the migrants’ places of origin and destination. Explanations for the behavioral pattern are provided in the hypotheses of migrant fertility and in the sociodemographic confounders of the behavior. Study data was extracted for the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. Median numbers of children ever born (CEB) were 7, 6, and 4 for the Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba ethnic groups respectively. Relative to the destination fertility patterns, Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba migrants had lower CEB in Igboland while Igbo and Yoruba migrants recorded lower CEB in the North-West home of the Hausa-Fulani ethnic group. Whereas the Igbo migrants maintained an equal CEB with their Yoruba hosts, the Hausa-Fulani group replicated their home fertility behavior in Yorubaland. Overall, the adaptation, socialization, and selectivity hypotheses were found valid for some of the disparities in migrant fertility behavior and the influence of the sociodemographic predictors of fertility behavior varied among the different ethnic groups.

Ryan M Boudreau, Keshav K Deshpande, G. Day et al.

BACKGROUND Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been shown to reduce mortality in the treatment of traumatic hemorrhage. This effect seems most profound when given early after injury. We hypothesized that extending a protocol for TXA administration into the prehospital aeromedical setting would improve outcomes while maintaining a similar safety profile to TXA dosed in the emergency department (ED). MATERIALS AND METHODS We identified all trauma patients who received TXA during prehospital aeromedical transport or in the ED at our urban level I trauma center over an 18-mo period. These patients had been selected prospectively for TXA administration using a protocol that selected adult trauma patients with high-risk mechanism and concern for severe hemorrhage to receive TXA. Patient demographics, vital signs, lab values including thromboelastography, blood administration, mortality, and complications were reviewed retrospectively and analyzed. RESULTS One hundred sixteen patients were identified (62 prehospital versus 54 ED). Prehospital TXA patients were more likely to have sustained blunt injury (76% prehospital versus 46% ED, P = 0.002). There were no differences between groups in injury severity score or initial vital signs. There were no differences in complication rates or mortality. Patients receiving TXA had higher rates of venous thromboembolic events (8.1% in prehospital and 18.5% in ED) than the overall trauma population (2.1%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Prehospital administration of TXA during aeromedical transport did not improve survival compared with ED administration. Treatment with TXA was associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events. Prehospital TXA protocols should be refined to identify patients with severe hemorrhagic shock or traumatic brain injury.

S. Toh, ScD Laura, J. Rasmussen-Torvik et al.

Background Although bariatric procedures are commonly performed in clinical practice, long-term data on the comparative effectiveness and safety of different procedures on sustained weight loss, comorbidities, and adverse effects are limited, especially in important patient subgroups (eg, individuals with diabetes, older patients, adolescents, and minority patients). Objective The objective of this study was to create a population-based cohort of patients who underwent 3 commonly performed bariatric procedures—adjustable gastric band (AGB), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and sleeve gastrectomy (SG)—to examine the long-term comparative effectiveness and safety of these procedures in both adults and adolescents. Methods We identified adults (20 to 79 years old) and adolescents (12 to 19 years old) who underwent a primary (first observed) AGB, RYGB, or SG procedure between January 1, 2005 and September 30, 2015 from 42 health systems participating in the Clinical Data Research Networks within the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet). We extracted information on patient demographics, encounters with healthcare providers, diagnoses recorded and procedures performed during these encounters, vital signs, and laboratory test results from patients’ electronic health records (EHRs). The outcomes of interest included weight change, incidence of major surgery-related adverse events, and diabetes remission and relapse, collected for up to 10 years after the initial bariatric procedure. Results A total of 65,093 adults and 777 adolescents met the eligibility criteria of the study. The adult subcohort had a mean age of 45 years and was predominantly female (79.30%, 51,619/65,093). Among adult patients with non-missing race or ethnicity information, 72.08% (41,248/57,227) were White, 21.13% (12,094/57,227) were Black, and 20.58% (13,094/63,637) were Hispanic. The average highest body mass index (BMI) recorded in the year prior to surgery was 49 kg/m2. RYGB was the most common bariatric procedure among adults (49.48%, 32,208/65,093), followed by SG (45.62%, 29,693/65,093) and AGB (4.90%, 3192/65,093). The mean age of the adolescent subcohort was 17 years and 77.5% (602/777) were female. Among adolescent patients with known race or ethnicity information, 67.3% (473/703) were White, 22.6% (159/703) were Black, and 18.0% (124/689) were Hispanic. The average highest recorded BMI in the year preceding surgery was 53 kg/m2. The majority of the adolescent patients received SG (60.4%, 469/777), followed by RYGB (30.8%, 239/777) and AGB (8.9%, 69/777). A BMI measurement (proxy for follow-up) was available in 84.31% (44,978/53,351), 68.09% (20,783/30,521), and 68.56% (7159/10,442) of the eligible adult patients at 1, 3, and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. The corresponding proportion was 82.0% (524/639), 49.9% (174/349), and 38.8% (47/121) in the adolescent subcohort. Conclusions Our study cohort is one of the largest cohorts of patients with bariatric procedures in the United States. Patients are geographically and demographically diverse, which improves the generalizability of the research findings and allows examination of treatment effect heterogeneity. Ongoing and planned investigations will provide real-world evidence on the long-term benefits and risks of these most commonly used bariatric procedures in current clinical practice.