Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

Reményi Péter, Gekić Haris, Bidžan-Gekić Aida

The demography of Bosnia and Herzegovina fits into the Southeast-European trends with sub-replacement fertility and high emigration rates. At the national level, natural decline started in 2007, while migration is influenced by the war and its aftermath, as well as several economic and political push factors (low wages, corruption, high unemployment, etc.), and also has a serious impact on birth and death rates. On the other hand, demographic trends in the Canton of Sarajevo differ from the national pattern. It reached sub-replacement fertility more than a decade later (2019), and migration still has a positive balance: besides significant emigration rates, immigration to the Canton, especially from the other parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is higher. Since migration involves younger generations, it is also a factor behind the more favourable fertility rates, and can be evaluated as a consequence of better socio-economic development in the capital and its gravitational area. In the Canton, there have been several factors that contributed to the decline of birth rates in the past decades. Changing functions of family and children in the society, increasing women's employment, educational level and career aspirations, growing individualism and rationality, the changing social climate in relation to children, higher personal standards, and other socio-psychological factors should be mentioned. Birth rates were also (positively) influenced by other factors. One of the most important points is that the Canton has certainly one of the best support policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina including financial support and allowances for newborn children, subsidies in preschool education, primary and secondary schools as well as scholarships for pupils and students. Positive economic trends such as new constructions of residential buildings, business, and shopping centres, as well as an even stronger concentration of attractive institutions and activities should be emphasised. In 2021, the total fertility rate accounted for 1.38 in the Canton, while it has shown a great variation among the municipalities. The municipality with the lowest total fertility rate (Novi Grad) had the highest total number of live births in the Canton, while the municipality with the lowest total number of live births (Trnovo) was the only one with total fertility rate values above the replacement level. Due to its demographic, economic and political significance, the Canton of Sarajevo is a key area for population revitalisation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, local measures have national significance, and can act as a model for the rest of the country in terms of population policy as well.

Köz - gazdaság

A Köz-gazdaság interjút kért dr. Jeszenszky Gézától, korábbi magyar külügyminisztertől a Köz-gazdasági folyamatok alakulásáról, arról, hogy mi várható 2023-ban. Az interjú szövegét 2023. április 30-án zártuk le.

Paul van Trigt

Adam Tooze

Este escrito sostiene que el premio “Nobel” de economía de este año celebra uno de los aspectos más débiles del pensamiento macroeconómico moderno: su limitada capacidad para entender la inestabilidad macrofinanciera del capitalismo moderno. En vez de desafiar la obstinada negativa de tomar en serio a los pensadores que afrontan la importancia esencial de las finanzas y sus peligros para el mundo moderno, como Hyman Minsky o Hyun Song Shin, hace alarde de la tendencia a ignorarlos. Y argumenta que si el Comité del premio hubiese querido galardonar a quienes procuran entender la dinámica del sistema financiero global moderno y sus interconexiones con la economía real, debería habérselo entregado al equipo del BIS, que se remonta a la época de William White, y a economistas académicos asociados al BIS como Hyun Song Shin.

Juliana Lopes Andrade, Marina Silva da Cunha

This paper investigates the impact of the postponement of motherhood on women’s earnings and gender gap in Brazilian labor market, based on data from Brazilian National Health Survey of 2013. Using the Heckman (1979) approach, the results suggest that postponing motherhood has a positive impact of 1.55% on earnings each year of postponement. By comparing men and women, the results suggest that being a woman generates a wage penalty of approximately 22%, but the postponing of motherhood can eliminate that gender gap, especially for those who are white, yellow, and higher educated.

Federico Carril-Caccia

Abstract This article aims to provide new insight on how Brexit will affect foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK. By estimating an augmented gravity equation which accounts for the depth of free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as for EU and euro area membership, the article gauges the potential impact that different EU-UK trade scenarios might have on FDI flows and stocks. Results show that under a no-deal scenario, FDI flows from the EU into the UK would plunge by 25.9% – 40.6%, and inward FDI stocks would decrease by 49.2% – 53.9%. However, the depth of the future FTA can mitigate this negative outcome. More generally, the article shows that the FDI costs of leaving the EU would be significantly higher for the euro area countries.

Sjaak Van der Velden

Paula Lucía Aguilar

Intervención de Paula Lucía Aguilar en el panel “Industria, servicios y género”, organizado el 12 de septiembre de 2019 dentro de las VII Jornadas de Historia de la Industria y los Servicios

Carlos A. Abanto-Valle, Hernán B. Garrafa-Aragón

This paper extends the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model specification proposed in So et al. (2002) and Chen et al. (2008) by incorporating thick-tails in the mean equation innovation using the scale mixture of normal distributions (SMN). A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate all the parameters and latent variables. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a mixture representation of the SMN distributions. The proposed methodology is applied to daily returns of indexes from BM&F BOVESPA (BOVESPA), Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (MERVAL), Mexican Stock Exchange (MXX) and the Standar & Poors 500 (SP500). Bayesian model selection criteria reveals that there is a significant improvement in model fit for the returns of the data considered here, by using the THSV model with slash distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models.

Bondan Kanumoyoso

The development of maritime activities in Southeast Asia in the “Age of Commerce” was strongly support by the Malay people. although Westerners have begun to dominate maritime activities in the region since the 17th century, but in the same period Malays and their trading networks continue to perform their irreplaceable function of connecting the various maritime communities that scattered throughout Southeast Asia. The extent of the Malay trade network was one of the factors that shape the maritime character of Southeast Asia. However, Malay trading activities was not only encouraged economic development in this region, but also form an identity that can be called as Malay maritime world of Southeast Asia. This article examines the maritime characteristic of Malay world and how global trade actually strengthens the role of Malay in trade and other maritime activities.

Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, Francisco Manuel Parejo Moruno

Las disputas en torno a determinados aspectos del dinero, como su neutralidad y el carácter endógeno o exógeno de la oferta monetaria, han sido permanentes entre las distintas escuelas de pensamiento y autores, estando su origen, probablemente, en la época de desarrollo del pensamiento escolástico. En este artículo pretendemos, en primer lugar, realizar un recorrido cronológico e histórico sobre el tratamiento científico económico del dinero, para, en segundo lugar, poner sobre la mesa la macroeconomía ortodoxa a la que han dado lugar las interpretaciones al respecto, así como los enfoques alternativos frente a este pensamiento dominante. Finalmente, intentamos poner en valor los desarrollos monetarios post-keynesianos, integrados en lo que denominan “Economía Monetaria de Producción”, confrontándolos con la llamada Nueva Síntesis Neoclásica.

Mauricio Archila Neira

José Casas Pardo, Francisco García Sobrecases

---

Darío Tortarolo

This paper studies the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply using census data from 14 Latin American countries and the U.S. over three decades (1980, 1990 and 2000). Parental preferences for a gender-balanced family is exploited as a source of exogenous variation. Although OLS estimates suggest a negative relationship, instrumental variables fails to identify a causal effect in most countries. When considering a pool of married women, a negative causal effect is found. In any case, despite having a highly accurate first-stage, the analysis of the quality of the instrument reveals a weak explanatory power of sibling sex composition on fertility.

ALICIA CARLINO

El objetivo del presente trabajo es describir los inicios de la actividad algodonera en el Chaco, y los alcances logrados por las primeras fases de la industria local: el desmotado y las aceiterías. Explicar esta problemática obliga a abordar el origen del recurso, la evolución del régimen de tierras, la instalación del capital, la política crediticia, las políticas de fomento emprendidas, la comercialización, la crisis de 1926-27, y finalmente la culminación del proceso con la crisis mundial de 1929 y sus consecuencias sobre la producción local. Se enfatiza el hecho que ya desde sus cimientos se hizo evidente que la cade-na textil quedaría dividida geográficamente, y que el Chaco sólo podría desarrollar las fases menos complejas de esta rama, postergando la integración vertical que le hubiera permitido agregar valor y favorecer la superación de su condición de economía marginal. Abstract The aim of this paper is to describe the beginnings of the cotton activity in the province of Chaco, and the advancements accomplished by the first phases of the local oil factories and the ginning. To explain these processes determines to research the origin of the cotton cultivation, the evolution of the land regime, the investment of capital, the credit and stimulation policies, the trade, and finally, the conse-quences of the crisis of 1929 on the local activities. It is emphasized the fact that since the beginnings it was obvious the textile chain would be divided geographically, and that Chaco would only develop the less complex phases of it, delaying the vertical integration that would have allowed this province to add value to and favour the overcoming of its condition as a marginal economy.

Julio Djenderedjian

N. Bulled, R. Sosis

Jiménez Moscoso José Alfredo, Mendoza Piñeros Andrés Mauricio

En el artículo se presentan algunas propiedades y limitaciones de la familia de distribuciones g y h de Tukey. Se desarrolla la función de densidad cuando los parámetros g y h no son constantes, lo cual es un gran avance considerando la recurrencia de este aspecto en las aplicaciones sobre el comportamiento de las distribuciones de los activos financieros. Estos desarrollos teóricos permiten hacer un análisis más detallado en el
 sector accionario cuando se desea conocer y describir el comportamiento de la distribución de las tasas de retorno.