<p dir="ltr">Human populations are undergoing a structural shift toward older, slower-growing, and ultimately contracting configurations as fertility falls below replacement, childbearing is postponed, and longevity rises. These changes are commonly framed as policy failures or temporary anomalies. This paper argues instead that they reflect endogenous, system-level demographic dynamics analogous to late-successional ecological processes. It introduces Ecological Loop Demography (ELD), a framework that models population change as a stock–flow system governed by interacting reinforcing and balancing feedback loops embedded in age structure. ELD identifies four mutually reinforcing demographic loops: (1) fertility-driven cohort compression, (2) structural ageing–fertility suppression, (3) longevity-driven elder stock expansion, and (4) momentum exhaustion through natural increase collapse. Once activated, these loops shift population dynamics from flow-dominated growth to stock-dominated contraction, rendering fertility recovery increasingly ineffective. In ELD, fertility and mortality rates function as flows that modulate demographic change, while age-structured cohort sizes constitute dominant stocks that change slowly and generate inertia. As populations age, outcomes become increasingly governed by stock dynamics rather than by short-term rate changes, producing declining policy elasticity and asymptotic adjustment toward smaller, older population structures. Using global demographic data (UN WPP 2024; IHME) and comparative analyses of Nigeria, Brazil, and Japan, the paper demonstrates that sustained low fertility and longevity gains generate predictable trajectories of structural ageing and population contraction largely independent of short-term policy intervention. A composite ELD index shows that fertility responsiveness collapses once age-structural feedbacks dominate. These findings suggest that population decline is not a demographic malfunction but a self-organising adjustment within biophysical limits. However, because modern democratic capitalism remains institutionally dependent on labour-force growth and continuous accumulation, demographic ageing and contraction are widely interpreted as economic crises. ELD situates contemporary demographic change within a broader ecological–political economy framework, highlighting why ageing, inequality, and democratic fragility increasingly co-evolve.</p>
Objectives
Tackling poverty in all its forms is a key priority for the Scottish Government. However, advances in our understanding of how poverty in Scotland is patterned by its diverse geography is hampered by a lack of robust data at a local area level.
Methods
A systematic data mapping exercise was undertaken to identify suitable datasets with data on a range of poverty outcomes and related proxies, as well as geography indicators. Six datasets were taken forward for descriptive analyses. These included the Households Below Average Income, Children in Low Income Families, Scottish Household Survey, Scottish House Condition Survey, Pupil Census and Understanding Society datasets.
Results
Relative and absolute poverty rates have increased over time in rural areas but remained relatively stable in urban areas at a higher level. In 2023, one in eight children lived in absolute low income families in islands and remote areas compared to one in five in larger cities. Despite this, among children in relative low income households, nearly three in four residing in islands and remote areas live in working families compared to three in five in larger cities. Households in remote rural areas continued to be the most at risk of experiencing fuel poverty and were more likely to report difficulties affording transport costs compared to those in urban areas.
Conclusion
The experience of poverty is different, and has changed in different ways, across different types of rural areas in Scotland. Place-based approaches offer the opportunity to tailor policy interventions to some of the observed localised poverty patterns.
Mukesh Kumar Singh, Ben G. Patterson, Stephen Fairhurst
We investigate the prospects of observing residual eccentricity in a population of compact binaries by calculating the power in the eccentric harmonics, following the methodology in arXiv:2411.04187. Although most observed compact binary coalescences are expected to circularize before entering the sensitivity band of the ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, dynamical interactions in dense star clusters can lead to a fraction of these binaries with non-negligible eccentricity at the time of detection. To quantify the observability of eccentricity, we simulate a population of merging compact binaries and identify those which have sufficient power in sub-dominant eccentric harmonics to be clearly distinguishable from quasi-circular systems. We consider a binary black hole (BBH) population derived from globular cluster simulations with residual eccentricity distribution obtained from Cluster Monte Carlo (CMC) catalogs as well as a fiducial log-uniform model. Assuming the LIGO-Virgo network of GW detectors with their sensitivities achieved during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Observing Run (O4), we find that the BBH population with measurable eccentricity will have a significantly higher median eccentricity $e_{\mathrm{10Hz}}\sim 0.3$ (with $90\%$ range: $0.1 - 0.5$) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) $\sim 20$ ($90\%$ range: $13 - 57$) compared to the observable population of BBHs. We compare our predictions of the regions of parameter space where eccentricity is detectable with the claimed observations of eccentricity in GW events from third Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3).
Introduction & Background
Uses and gratification (U&G) theory posits individuals’ engagement with social media is a deliberate effort to fulfill various needs, like information seeking, entertainment, and networking. However, prior studies predominantly addressed whether individuals use social media to satisfy their needs, leaving a gap in understanding how individuals behave online to satisfy needs. This study fills this gap by merging survey responses with actual Twitter activity, to investigate how individuals behave online to satisfy distinctive motivations, including (a) self-expression, (b) seeking entertainment, (c) business and working, (d) staying informed with news, and (e) networking. We also investigated how these online behaviors vary among individuals with different demographic features, including socio-economic classes, gender, and age.
Objectives & Approach
Our research addressed questions by linking survey responses with actual Twitter activities within the U.K. Participants were asked to provide survey responses surrounding age, gender, socio-economic class, and motivations for using social media. They were also queried about the existence of Twitter account, willingness to disclose Twitter username, and, if agreeable, the username itself. The survey continued until a total of 2,195 individuals shared Twitter handles. Following the removal of accounts that were either suspended or nonexistent, the study proceeded with a final count of 1,915.
We collected each user’s Twitter metadata with Twitter API, including tweet count, follower count, following count, and bio information, and linked each user’s metadata with survey responses. To ensure respondents’ anonymity, survey, Twitter and linked data are stored separately, and can only be accessed by designated researcher.
Relevance to Digital Footprints
The study's approach of linking survey responses with actual Twitter activity offers a detailed insight into the digital footprints left by users as they engage with social media to satisfy their diverse needs. By analyzing the behaviors associated with motivations, this research illuminates the specific ways individuals curate their digital presence.
Results
Regression analysis indicated that individuals motivated by self-expression tend to tweet (b = .28, SE = .06, p < .001), follow account (b = .38, SE = .06, p < .001), gain followers (b = .13, SE = .06, p = .035), and post bio details (b = .89, SE = .13, p < .001). Work and business motivation leads to post bio information (b = .38, SE = .15, p = .012), while networking leads to follow more accounts (b = .28, SE = .06, p < .001).
Social-economic class moderated associations between networking motivation and tweet count (b = -.25, SE = .09, p = .004), and between self-expression and tweet count (b = .20, SE = .08, p = .009). For individuals with higher socio-economic, self-expression has a higher effect on tweet count, whereas networking motivation has a less effect on tweet count. Additionally, we found gender moderated the association between self-expression and tweet count (b = .25, SE = .12, p = .04) and between keeping updated with news and tweet count (b = .11, SE = .05, p = .03).
Conclusions & Implications
These findings offer a nuanced understanding of social media usage, highlighting how different motivations influence specific online behaviors. The novel approach of linking surveys with actual social media activity provides a more accurate representation of user behavior, contributing insights for academic and practical social media strategy and design.
The research problem investigates the application of the concept of local urban centers (LUCs) in transforming post-industrial cities into sustainable cities. The subject of the study is Katowice, undergoing a transition towards modern services, while also grappling with an industrial legacy that results in an imbalance of development processes. The idea of LUCs, developed in relation to existing and new district train stations, based on the concept of the 15-minute city, was proposed by the authors within the Katowice development strategy and further tested within the Urban&Business Lab workshops. The research showed, that although in a model approach, service concentration points and public transport nodes should be closely linked, in the existing conditions of Katowice, they almost always deviate from the ideal model. Nevertheless, in each of the cases analyzed, elements of functions and spaces can be observed that have the potential which have the potential to foster LUCs.
Julieta Bengochea, Mariana Fernández Soto, Rafael Grande
et al.
En los últimos años se ha evidenciado un aumento de la migración intrarregional entre los países de América Latina, y Uruguay ha acompañado esta tendencia. En menos de cinco años la dinámica migratoria de Uruguay tuvo dos grandes transformaciones: un aumento del número de inmigrantes y un cambio en la composición en sus orígenes. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar las diferentes formas de migración familiar de las personas provenientes de Cuba, República Dominicana, Perú y Venezuela al momento de la llegada a Uruguay, y los factores relacionados con estas formas. Con base en modelos logísticos multinomiales vemos que la migración individual es llevada a cabo principalmente por los varones, y la migración familiar conjunta y con familia en origen es efectuada, sobre todo, por mujeres que protagonizan el espacio transnacional. A su vez, los jóvenes y los más educados son quienes en mayor proporción migran de forma individual.
Social Sciences, Demography. Population. Vital events
Nikhil S. Narayan, Shashanka B. R., Rohit Damodaran
et al.
The reliability of the results of self monitoring of the vitals in the wild using medical devices or wearables or camera based smart phone solutions is subject to variabilities such as position of placement, hardware of the device and environmental factors. In this first of its kind study, we demonstrate that this variability in self monitoring of Blood Pressure (BP), Blood oxygen saturation level (SpO2) and Heart rate (HR) is statistically significant (p<0.05) on 203 healthy subjects by quantifying positional and hardware variability. We also establish the existence of this variability in camera based solutions for self-monitoring of vitals in smart phones and thus prove that the use of camera based smart phone solutions is similar to the use of medical devices or wearables for self-monitoring in the wild.
<b>Background</b>: In many Southeast Asian populations, urbanization and migration have increased the share of older adults supported by nonresident children. The expansion of mobile telephone infrastructure has emerged as a mechanism to bridge the spatial dispersion of families and to facilitate support for aging adults. <b>Objective</b>: We document two decades of change in the proximity of adult children of older people in Indonesia. We then ask how the arrival and expansion of mobile communication infrastructure changed key dimensions of intergenerational support: frequency of contact and material transfers. <b>Methods</b>: We combine data from a longitudinal, population-representative household survey with area-level information on mobile signal strength in Indonesia spanning the development of mobile telecommunication. We describe shifts in the family network available to older adults as well as changes in support between 1997 and 2014. We use fixed effect specifications to estimate the impact of the arrival of mobile telecommunication on intergenerational support. <b>Results</b>: For Indonesian older adults, the geographic dispersal of adult children increased over the two-decade period, but the proximate residence of at least one child remained stable. Weekly contact and the monetary value of material transfers to older people doubled. The arrival of mobile technology increased contact between aging parents and their adult children but had little impact on material transfers. <b>Contribution</b>: Despite the spatial dispersion of adult children, familial support for the Indonesian older-age population has increased substantially over the past two decades. Telecommunication has supported ongoing intrafamilial exchange, but the effects differ across dimensions of support.
¿Cómo debutan sexualmente los adolescentes de hoy? ¿Usan pornografía? ¿Cuán libres son sus elecciones sexuales? Estas preguntas despiertan potentes ansiedades y temores entre padres, maestros y expertos y dieron lugar a este libro: Sexualidades adolescentes. Amor, placer y control en la Argentina contemporánea. En sus páginas, Daniel Jones responde a esos interrogantes, desmonta lugares comunes y describe la relación de los jóvenes con el sexo y el amor. Lo hace en función de un problema mayor: comprender la construcción de las jerarquías sexuales...
Social Sciences, Demography. Population. Vital events
<b>Background</b>: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. <b>Objective</b>: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. <b>Methods</b>: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015-2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. <b>Results</b>: The majority (63Š) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015-2019 period. However, in only 27Š of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. <b>Conclusions</b>: In 2015-2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. <b>Contribution</b>: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas.
Script is a kind of structured knowledge extracted from texts, which contains a sequence of events. Based on such knowledge, script event prediction aims to predict the subsequent event. To do so, two aspects should be considered for events, namely, event description (i.e., what the events should contain) and event encoding (i.e., how they should be encoded). Most existing methods describe an event by a verb together with only a few core arguments (i.e., subject, object, and indirect object), which are not precise. In addition, existing event encoders are limited to a fixed number of arguments, which are not flexible to deal with extra information. Thus, in this paper, we propose the Rich Event Prediction (REP) framework for script event prediction. Fundamentally, it is based on the proposed rich event description, which enriches the existing ones with three kinds of important information, namely, the senses of verbs, extra semantic roles, and types of participants. REP contains an event extractor to extract such information from texts. Based on the extracted rich information, a predictor then selects the most probable subsequent event. The core component of the predictor is a transformer-based event encoder to flexibly deal with an arbitrary number of arguments. Experimental results on the widely used Gigaword Corpus show the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Due to its significance in the recommendation system and community operations, user migration has garnered the interest of cyber-demography experts from numerous disciplines. However, contemporary research frequently overlooks the theory behind related prediction techniques, such as the Hidden Markov model. By combining the two fundamental processes of "opinion evolution" and "individual migration" in this research, the mechanistic explanation of online user migration is established and merged into a composite model. Simultaneously, some fundamental theorems and exploratory conclusions related to our model's consensus and steady population state are established via theoretical proof and numerical simulation.
Background Verbal autopsy is a pragmatic approach for generating cause-of-death data in contexts without well-functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems. It has primarily been conducted in health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in Africa and Asia. Although significant resources have been invested to develop the technical aspects of verbal autopsy, ethical issues have received little attention. We explored the benefits and burdens of verbal autopsy in HDSS settings and identified potential strategies to respond to the ethical issues identified. Methods This research was based on a case study approach centred on two contrasting HDSS in Kenya and followed the Mapping-Framing-Shaping Framework for empirical bioethics research. Data were collected through individual interviews, focus group discussions, document reviews and non-participant observations. 115 participants were involved, including 86 community members (HDSS residents and community representatives), and 29 research staff (HDSS managers, researchers, census field workers and verbal autopsy interviewers). Results The use of verbal autopsy data for research and public health was described as the most common potential benefit of verbal autopsy in HDSS. Community members mentioned the potential uses of verbal autopsy data in addressing immediate public health problems for the local population while research staff emphasized the benefits of verbal autopsy to research and the wider public. The most prominent burden associated with the verbal autopsy was emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. Moral events linked to the interview, such as being unsure of the right thing to do (moral uncertainty) or knowing the right thing to do and being constrained from acting (moral constraint), emerged as key causes of emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers. Conclusions The collection of cause-of-death data through verbal autopsy in HDSS settings presents important ethical and emotional challenges for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. These challenges include emotional distress for respondents and moral distress for interviewers. This empirical ethics study provides detailed accounts of the distress caused by verbal autopsy and highlights ethical tensions between potential population benefits and risks to individuals. It includes recommendations for policy and practice to address emotional and moral distress in verbal autopsy.
Background Ecosystem degradation, mainly through overexploitation and destruction of natural habitats, is a well-known threat to the viability and persistence of many species’ populations worldwide. The use of translocations as a viable conservation tool in conjunction with protected areas has been rapidly increasing over the last few decades. Protected areas such as strict nature reserves, national parks, and species management areas continue to be central tools for biodiversity conservation as they provide vital habitats set aside from various human pressures. Because action consistently runs ahead of policy, the need for a clearer evidence base on the outcomes of wildlife translocations undertaken at a global scale is becoming increasingly urgent for scientific and decision-making communities, in order to build clear strategy frameworks around conservation translocations. We therefore conducted a systematic mapping exercise to provide an overview of the existing evidence on the outcomes of wildlife translocations in protected areas. Methods We searched two bibliographic databases, four web-based search engines with search-by-key-words capacity, 5 specialist websites, and conducted a grey literature call through two project stakeholders. We screened articles by title, abstract, and full text using pre-defined inclusion criteria all the while assessing the consistency of the reviewers. All relevant translocations were coded from retained publications. Key variables of interest were extracted and coded for each translocation event. The quantity and characteristics of the available evidence and knowledge gaps/clusters are summarised. The distribution and frequency of translocations are presented in heat- and geographical maps. Review findings A total of 613 articles were considered eligible for coding bibliometric data. Metapopulation management and review articles were not coded for quantitative and qualitative variables. Linked data (duplicated translocations) were also excluded. Finally, 841 studies of different translocation events were fully coded from 498 articles. Most of these translocations were carried out in North America and Oceania. The most commonly undertaken intervention types were one-off supplementations and “supplemented reintroductions”. Mammals were by far the most transferred group among animals. Magnoliopsida was the most translocated plant group. Survival, space use, and demography metrics were the most studied outcomes on translocated species. Conclusions This systematic map provides an up-to-date global catalogue of the available evidence on wildlife translocations to, from, or within protected areas. It should enable protected area managers to better understand their role in the global network of protected areas, regarding translocation practice, both as suppliers or recipients of translocated species. It may help managers and practitioners make their own choices by comparing previous experiences, regarding both the species concerned and the precise translocation modalities (number of individuals, etc . ). Finally, it constitutes a decision-making tool for managers as well as for policy makers for future translocations.
INTRODUCTION Hospital-acquired central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI) are "never events" in U.S. healthcare. Efforts to eliminate CLABSI are critically important to children with intestinal failure (IF) who depend on long-term, daily use of a central venous catheter (CVC) and often undergo extended hospitalizations. They are also vital to the safety of any patient with a CVC. We sought to describe long-term outcomes of a multidisciplinary CLABSI elimination effort on a 24-bed medical-surgical unit caring for children with IF. METHODS Unit CLABSI events from 1/9/2012 to 4/16/2020 were evaluated in the context of multiple interventions aimed at preventing CLABSI; leveraging prospectively maintained clinical registries and National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) reporting data, patient and unit demographics, ethanol lock utilization, and unit CVC days. Interventions, including zinc oxide-based adhesive barriers, environmental cleaning, and simulation as part of staff education were developed utilizing consensus of hospital experts and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines with staff engagement. Descriptive statistics and tests of non-parametric data were employed for analysis. RESULTS Ninety-five patients with IF and 862 non-IF patients experienced a total of 1,629 admissions with 20,372 CVC days during the study period. Twelve hospital-acquired CLABSI events occurred, including 7 following NHSN definition change on 1/1/2015 (0.56 per 1,000 CVC days). Following the last unit CLABSI on 12/5/2016, there were 7,117 CVC days without CLABSI through study conclusion. CONCLUSIONS Use of described interventions in the context of an enhanced culture of collaborative care and ownership is associated with hospital-acquired CLABSI elimination. Success in a specific population translated to all other unit patients with a CVC. Findings suggest that CLABSI elimination is not the result of a single new product or practice but rather an approach that supports and empowers those most closely responsible for care of the patient and their CVC is key. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect to the birth rate and death rate distributions in age, and initial conditions. When the number of children born per woman is 2, the population distribution approaches an asymptotically steady state of a kink shape; thus the total population approaches a constant. When the number of children born per woman is greater than 2, the total population increases without bound; and when the number of children born per woman is less than 2, the total population decreases to zero.
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in this setting are now readily recognized, and partial remedies are well known. Much less understood is the impact of population interference in panel experiments where treatment is sequentially randomized in the population, and the outcomes are observed at each time step. This paper proposes a general framework for studying population interference in panel experiments and presents new finite population estimation and inference results. Our findings suggest that, under mild assumptions, the addition of a temporal dimension to an experiment alleviates some of the challenges of population interference for certain estimands. In contrast, we show that the presence of carryover effects -- that is, when past treatments may affect future outcomes -- exacerbates the problem. Revisiting the special case of standard experiments with population interference, we prove a central limit theorem under weaker conditions than previous results in the literature and highlight the trade-off between flexibility in the design and the interference structure.
D. Parmar, Kevinkumar A. Kansagra, J. Patel
et al.
Background: Desidustat (ZYAN1) is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor (HIF-PHI) that stimulates erythropoiesis. Stabilizing HIF via PHI is developing as a new therapeutic approach to treat anemia secondary to chronic kidney disease (CKD). This trial evaluated the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of Desidustat in adult CKD patients with anemia, who were not on dialysis. Methods: This was a Phase 2, randomized, double-blind, 6-week, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging, safety and efficacy study. A total of 117 eligible patients were randomized to 4 arms: 100, 150, 200 mg, or placebo. The investigational product was administered every alternate day for 6 weeks in fasting conditions. The primary endpoint was change in hemoglobin (Hb) from baseline to week 6. Results: Baseline demographics were well balanced among all the treatment arms. In the modified intent-to-treat (mITT) population, a mean Hb increase of 1.57, 2.22, and 2.92 g/dL in Desidustat 100, 150, and 200 mg arms, respectively, was observed post 6 weeks treatment. The responder rate (≥1 g/dL increase) was 66% in 100 mg, 75% in 150 mg, and 83% in 200 mg treatment arms, in the mITT population. Eighteen patients had at least one treatment emergent adverse event (TEAE), and 5 patients reported at least one drug-related mild TEAE. No death or serious adverse event was reported during the trial. Conclusion: There was dose-related increase in Hb across all doses compared to placebo in mITT and per-protocol populations. Desidustat also increased pharmacokinetic parameters Cmax and AUC in dose-related manner. There was no significant change in vital signs, electrocardiographic parameters, or safety laboratory values. Clinical Trial Registration Number CTRI/2017/05/008534 (registered on May 11, 2017).