Abstract Financial distress prediction (FDP) is a critical area of study for researchers, industry stakeholders, and regulatory authorities. However, FDP tasks present several challenges, including high-dimensional datasets, class imbalances, and the complexity of parameter optimization. These issues often hinder the predictive model’s ability to accurately identify companies at high risk of financial distress. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce FinMHSPE—a novel multi-heterogeneous self-paced ensemble (MHSPE) FDP learning framework. The proposed model uses pairwise comparisons of data from multiple time frames combined with the maximum relevance and minimum redundancy method to select an optimal subset of features, effectively resolving the high dimensionality issue. Furthermore, the proposed framework incorporates the MHSPE model to iteratively identify the most informative majority class data samples, effectively addressing the class imbalance issue. To optimize the model’s parameters, we leverage the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The robustness of our proposed model is validated through extensive experiments performed on a financial dataset of Chinese listed companies. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms existing competing models in the field of FDP. Specifically, our FinMHSPE framework achieves the highest performance, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.9574, considerably surpassing all existing methods. A comparative analysis of AUC values further reveals that FinMHSPE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches that rely on financial features as inputs. Furthermore, our investigation identifies several valuable features for enhancing FDP model performance, notably those associated with a company’s information and growth potential.
Deep renovation, is seen as crucial in dealing with energy security and meeting climate targets, especially in post-Soviet countries with notoriously energy-inefficient residential housing stock. One critical question is whether these retrofits can achieve the energy savings promised by the engineering model. This paper assesses the energy performance gap–the discrepancy between realized energy savings and the predictions of engineers at the building level. In contrast to previous studies, we find that, on average, the predicted savings are fully realized for a retrofit programme of multi-apartment buildings in Lithuania. Among other factors, we consider how the differences in the energy performance gap for each building can be explained by energy efficiency measures, targeted energy class, and the type of multi-apartment building management. Interestingly, we find that multi-apartment buildings managed by outsourced specialized housing management companies tend to realize higher energy savings than buildings managed by communities of apartment owners.
Public finance, Economic growth, development, planning
Rogger, D., & Shushter C. (2023). The government analytics handbook: Leveraging data to strengthen public administration. World Bank Group, 785 pp., $0.00 (electronic), ISBN: 978-1-4648-1981-0.
هدفت الدراسة الي تقييم فعالية تطبيق الاثنوغرافيا التنظيمية من خلال التعرف على مدى توافرابعادها الخمسة (التنوع الثقافي ، بيئة العمل الداخلية ،العمل الميداني المشترك ، فعالية القيادة الادارية ، تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات) في قطاع الأدوية فى مصر ، وذلك باجراء دراسة تطبيقية مقارنة بين الشركات المحلية والاجنبية التى تعمل في هذا القطاع الحيوي .وهي دراسة وصفية استكشافية اختارت عينة اجمالية قدرها(٣٩٨ )مفردة منها( ٢٨١ )مفردة من الشركات المحلية ،( ١١٧) مفردة من الشركات الاجنبية ، وبلغت نسبة الاستجابة حوالى ٨١٪ (٣٢٠ مفردة).وتوصلت النتائج الى توافر وتطبيق ابعاد الاثنوغرافيا التنظيمية الخمسة فى كل من الشركات المحلية والاجنبية محل الدراسة.،كما ان هناك توافقًا في استجابات العاملين في المواقع الوظيفية المختلفة في هذه الشركات بشأن تطبيق هذه الابعاد الخمسة.وعدم وجود فروق ذات دلالة احصائية بين الشركات المحلية والاجنبية فيما يتعلق بأربعة ابعاد للاثنوغرافيا التنظيمية وهي:التنوع الثقافي،بيئة العمل الداخلية ، العمل الميداني المشترك ، تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات ، في حين تبين وجود فروق ذات دلالة احصائية بين الشركات المحلية والاجنبية فيما يتعلق ببعد فعالية القيادة الادارية. وأوصت الدراسة بضرورة الاهتمام بتبنى وتطبيق مفهوم الاثنوغرافيا التنظيمية بابعاده المختلفة للاستفادة من اثاره الايجابية في المنظمات.
يعد الركود التضخمى من أهم الظواهر التي تواجه الاقتصاد المصرى ،وما يتبعه من تغيير نمط الإستهلاك، ودراسة هذه الأنماط تساعد المنظمات الصناعية على إجراء تعديلات على استراتيجاتها التسويقية خلاله لتحافظ على حصتها السوقية. لذا تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى قياس تأثير الركود التضخمى على سلوك المستهلك والاستراتيجيات التسويقية التي يتبعها رجال الصناعة أثنائه وتفسير العلاقة بين سلوك المستهلك المعدل والاستراتيجيات التسويقية بإستخدام النمذجة الهيكلية التفسيرية الشاملة للتوصل إلى أكثر الاستراتيجيات فعاليةً. وانتهجت الدراسة المنهج الوصفى التحليلى الذى يعتمد على دراسة ظاهرة الركود التضخمى ، وتفسير العلاقات المختلفة التي تؤثر أو تتأثر بها بغرض التحكم فيها من خلال التطبيق على عينة تتكون من408مفردة تمثل مجتمع المستهلكين لتحديد أهم أبعاد تعديل السلوك وعينة أخرى قوامها396مفردة تمثل مجتمع الصناعة لتحديد الاستراتيجيات التسويقية المتبعة خلاله كما تم استخدام النمذجه الهيكليه التفسيريه الشامله لتفسير العلاقة بينهما.وأهم النتائج التي توصلت إليها الدراسة هي وجود تأثير مباشر من الركود التضخمى على كلا من سلوك المستهلك والإستراتيجيات التسويقية يتطلب تعديل الإستراتيجيات للتكيف مع السلوك المعدل لتخطى الركود التضخمى. كما تبين أن كلا من الوعى والقلق المالى تعتبر بمثابة متغيرات حاسمة تقود النموذج التفسيرى بينما تمثل كل من الانفاق بحذر والبحث عن أسعار مخفضة متغيرات ربط ، فى حين أن تعديل المنتج وتعديلات الترويج والبساطة فى التوزيع والشراء متغيرات تابعة تتأثر بالمتغيرات الحاسمة والمرتبطة.و كلا من استراتيجية السوق المستهدف بالتمركز في الأسواق ذو الموقع القوى و تطبيق برامج الولاء متغيرات حاسمة تقود النموذج التفسيرى بينما استراتيجيات المنتج والتوزيع عناصر ربط و كل من استراتيجية الترويج والتسعير والبحث عن أسواق خارجيه عناصر تابعة تتأثر بكل من العناصر الحاسمة وعناصر الربط.
DAI Liang, DING Zijun, CAO Zhan, WU Kang, WANG Ruilin
[Objective] In the new economic development era, actively integrating into regional innovation networks has become an important way for cities to obtain external innovation resources and enhance their independent innovation capabilities. This study aimed to reveal the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of change of collaborative innovation in the Yangtze River Delta region from a network perspective, and put forward policy recommendations for regional innovation space optimization and high-quality development. [Methods] Based on the co-application data of invention patents, the intercity collaborative innovation networks of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region were constructed for six periods from 2010 to 2020. The characteristics of change of the regional collaborative innovation networks were further investigated through network descriptive analysis and the underlying endogenous and exogenous driving forces were explored through the temporal exponential random graph models. [Results] (1) The intercity collaborative innovation networks in the Yangtze River Delta presented the co-existence of hierarchical structures and clustering structures, as well as remote trans-local linkages and proximate local linkages. Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing were always the top three in terms of innovation collaboration, and the innovation corridor along Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Ningbo became evident. Regional collaboration clusters were highly coupled with administrative divisions and gradually evolved into three communities bounded with provincial boundaries and centered on the cities with high administrative levels, i.e., Jiangsu-Shanghai community, Zhejiang local community, and Anhui local community. Except for Hefei, the development of cities in Anhui Province was more localized and marginalized. (2) The scale and strength of networks increased gradually while the overall change of the networks was stable. The overall structural similarity between the current network and its previous network exceeded 80%. The hierarchical structure tended to converge whereas clustering structures were continuously strengthened, thus the networks were developing towards a balanced and clustering pattern with dense collaboration among multiple cores. (3) In addition to the urban innovation endowments, network change was mainly driven by time dependence, structure dependence, provincial boundary effect, and geographical proximity. [Conclusion] There is still much room for the improvement of regional collaborative innovation in the Yangtze River Delta region. It is necessary to further enhance the efficient flow of innovation resources, promote the development of regional integration with high-density and small-scale cooperation, and strengthen the exploration and encouragement of new modes and mechanisms of intercity technology collaboration, so as to break the path dependence, administrative hierarchy and regional barriers to innovation collaboration.
Annika Baumeister, Digo Chakraverty, Angela Aldin
et al.
Abstract Background Effective communication is a central aspect of organizational health literacy. Healthcare professionals are expected to ensure an effective and satisfactory flow of information and to support their patients in accessing, understanding, appraising, and applying health information. This qualitative study aimed to examine the health literacy-related challenges, needs, and applied solutions of healthcare professionals when engaging with persons with a migrant background. Based on the integrated model of health literacy (Sørensen et al., BMC Public Health 12:80, 2012), we focused on environmental, personal, and situational factors that shape health literacy in transcultural treatment settings. Methods We conducted five focus group discussions with healthcare professionals (N = 31) who are in regular contact with persons with a migrant background. Discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using qualitative content analysis by applying a deductive–inductive categorization procedure. Deductive categories were derived from the integrated model of health literacy. Results Challenges included a mismatch in the provision and use of health services. Participants regarded easily accessible services and outreach counselling as helpful solutions. Further challenges were the migrant patients’ distrust in healthcare professionals and the German healthcare system, the participants’ uncertainty in dealing with patients’ expectations and needs, and the patients’ non-compliance with appointments. Environmental factors included systemic lack of time and economic pressure. Both were reported as impeding the flow of information in all treatment settings. Participants with a migrant background themselves (n = 16) regarded this personal factor as an opportunity that increased patients’ trust in them. They also reported challenges such as high levels of responsibility felt when ad hoc interpreting for colleagues. Conclusions Known issues observed in the delivery of healthcare for the majority population (i.e., systemic lack of time, economic pressure) appear to be intensified in the context of migration. An increasingly diverse patient clientele indicates a growing need for culture-sensitive, health-literate healthcare organizations. A corresponding diversity of the health workforce is desirable and should be strengthened by national finance and educational programs. Healthcare professionals who interpret for colleagues should be given the necessary time. Further studies are needed to develop appropriate interventions for improving health literacy at individual and organizational levels. Funding for interpreting services should be expanded.
Cities, acting as engines of economic growth and generators of public finance for development, will usher in an urban revolution in the developing world. Such an urban revolution is sure to bring in opportunities to millions through the increasing level of urbanisation. This rising trend of urbanisation coupled with the increasing functional responsibilities of the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) has been creating serious problems for the provision and financing of urban infrastructure. The resource crunch at each level of government in general, and the local level in particular, has instigated the need for analysing the causes behind such adverse state of municipal finance. Against this background, this paper attempts to evaluate the state of municipal finance in West Bengal by performing a comparative analysis of relevant indices. Acknowledging the potential of municipal finances in improving the delivery of basic services, the present study uses secondary data to demonstrate that the higher availability of essential urban services is associated with higher levels of revenue generation. This study presents a spatial and town class-based pattern analysis of the finances of ULBs of West Bengal in terms of their financial base, its adequacy, and their revenue and expenditure performance. The main thrust of this study is to examine the patterns of finances in ULBs in West Bengal and to present a comparative picture thereof along with per capita analysis of revenue and expenditure components based on size categories of the ULBs.
يستهدف هذا البحث دراسة أثر الإفصاح الإختياري على الأداء المالي للشرکات في ظل تبني تطبيق معايير التقارير المالية الدولية في مصر ، ولتحقيق هذا الهدف إعتمدت الباحثة على إجراء دراسة إختبارية على الشرکات المصرية بإستخدام تحليل نماذج البيانات الاطارية. وتوصلت الباحثة من خلال الدراسة الإختبارية إلى نتائج رئيسية هى أن الشرکات المسجلة بالبورصة المصرية تهتم بالإقصاح الإختياري وقد زاد مستوى هذا الإفصاح بعد تبني تطبيق معايير التقارير المالية الدولية في مصر، ويؤثر الإفصاح الإختياري على الأداء المالي للشرکات تأثير إيجابي معنوي ، کما يؤثر تبني تطبيق معايير التقارير المالية الدولية على الأداء المالي للشرکات تأثير إيجابي معنوي ، الإفصاح الاختياري و تبني تطبيق معايير التقارير المالية الدولية يؤثران معاً بدرجة أکبر من تأثير الإفصاح الإختياري منفرد على الاداء المالي للشرکات . ووفقاً لهذه النتائج توصي الباحثة بتوعية الشرکات بإجراء مزيد من الإفصاح الإختياري الذي يوضح أنشطة الشرکة المتنوعة ، وتوصي کذلک السلطات المختصة بالتحول إلى تطبيق معايير التقارير المالية الدولية بشکل کامل لما لهما من أثر فعال في تفسير أداء الشرکات المالي وللإستفادة من مزايا تطبيق المعايير المتعددة وخاصة في مرحلة النمو الإقتصاد المصري . الإضافة العلمية سعت هذه الدراسة إلى دراسة أثر کلاً من الإفصاح الإختياري وتبني تطبيق معايير التقاير المالية الدولية على الأداء المالي للشرکات متمثلاً في ( العائد على الأصول ، والعائد على حقوق الملکية ، ومعدل دوان إجمالي الأصول)
Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify financing strategies in Tehran central library of public universities. Methods: This study in terms of implementation is library then survey, and data collection tools are study texts then a researcher made questionnaire. First, the current status of libraries in terms of funding from the heads or deputies or their representatives point of view is discussed. Then the questionnaires were distributed among the managers and librarians to inform us about their viewpoint about financing strategies. To measure the current situation the study population consisted of all managers and heads of 11 academic universities and the attitude assessment was in a census method. A total of 156 librarians responded to the questionnaires. The analysis of the findings of this study has been done through SPSS. Findings: The findings of the study show that the current strategies used to finance in the central libraries of academic universities of Tehran are not appropriate to the current situation. Besides, it was founded that there is a significant relationship between the main variables of the research, namely financing strategies, and its dimensions, and income-generating activities, financing methods, and training in the financing, respectively, have the greatest impact on financing strategies in university central libraries.Originality: This study for the first time examines the approach of financing in Tehran public university libraries in addition, using the perspectives of managers and librarians, offers some guidelines for financing in academic libraries.Keywords:
Information theory, Bibliography. Library science. Information resources
Environmental pollution is an important threat for sustainable economic development at the national and the regional level. Nevertheless, regional studies investigating the determinants of the environmental pollution in Turkey are limited. This study analyzes the effects of income, energy consumption, trade openness and environmental protection expenditures on the environmental pollution in NUTS 2 regions of Turkey for the period 2007-2019 within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The findings obtained from the study using the Two Step System Generalized Moments Method show that the EKC hypothesis is not valid in Turkey for NUTS 2 regions. Morever, energy consumption has a statistically significant and positive effect on the environmental pollution, while trade openness has a negative effect. However, environmental protection expenditures do not have statistically significant effects on the environmental pollution. These results reveal that the effectiveness of the economic and fiscal policies implemented at the regional level to increase the environmental quality should be increased.
Inna Shkolnyk, Tetyana Melnyk, Yuliia Havrysh
et al.
Transparency in public and local finance is one of the most important factors in building a democratic society with high level of public confidence in the government. Democratic shifts in a country will only take place if citizens perceive the country’s government and local self-government as fully transparent and controlled by them. Citizens will be able to support and cooperate with the government if it informs them of all public activities: decision-making, financial reporting, planning, local budget expenditures, etc. Transparency in the formation and use of local financial resources is the most sensitive issue.Local finance transparency has been studied from the perspective of 21 online portals of local authorities from four Ukrainian regions, geographically remote in the context of two main blocks, namely, the state of public procurement and the budget process. The portals of Lviv, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Mykolaiv administrative centers and the city of Kyiv were identified in each region (oblast), and in each oblast, four cities with the district status, which are the largest by population, were identified. Significant discrepancies in local finance transparency have been identified, as portals of regional centers and a small number of districts have high levels of transparency. The vast majority have low transparency in local finances. In addition, the level of community involvement in the regional development problems through social networks was analyzed. The population of small cities was found to be more active. Most local governments should pay attention to the low level of portals in terms of making them user-friendly.
Rey Francisco Ayala Castrejon, Christian Bucio Pacheco
En este trabajo se genera un abanico de pronósticos del tipo de cambio peso-dólar a través de un modelo ARIMA(1,1,1) en el periodo 2016-2017, dicho modelo que se aplica al tipo de cambio peso-dólar se estima de diversas maneras mediante el uso de ventanas temporales deslizantes; asimismo, se identifica la existencia de problemas de cambio estructural y se propone un ajuste óptimo al modelo ARIMA(1,1,1) propuesto, lo cual permite mejorar el pronóstico. La evidencia empírica resalta lo complejo que es realizar un pronóstico con datos que tienen un comportamiento cambiante a través del tiempo y que presentan además problemas de cambio estructural; en este sentido es recomendable utilizar mecanismos que ayuden a perfeccionar el pronóstico como en este caso lo fue el uso de ventanas temporales deslizantes y la propuesta de cambio estructural. Se concluye que el pronóstico a 30 días, tanto de ventanas deslizantes como de ventanas deslizantes crecientes por la derecha, es viable, ya que con un intervalo de confianza del 95% se tienen 12 registros de 30 dentro del rango del valor real del tipo de cambio peso-dólar.
Conventional algebraic estimate of the fiscal multipliers ignores the concept of velocity of money and mistakenly assumes that money changes hands an infinite number of times during a given year while we know money only has a finite velocity. Apart from the velocity of money, fiscal multipliers tend to depend on average propensity to consume and average propensity to import of the economy as a whole and also on average tax rate among other things which are not reflected in the modern SVAR based estimation. Here, in the first place, we amend the algebraic definition of the fiscal multipliers considering the impact of velocity of money, provide a micro-foundation relating fiscal multipliers with money velocity and other macro variables and later propose a modification in the conventional SVAR set up by incorporating aforesaid macro variables arranged in a logical manner. Proposed amendments to the SVAR set up entail relatively stable estimates of the fiscal multipliers as can be seen from empirical estimation of the multiplier values for US and UK data during the period 1972-2018.
With it being considered as a value-added activity, the Internal Audit function (IAF) of a firm is one of the most important functions in an organization. During the last decade, the role of this particular function has become very useful, especially in creating awareness regarding the Prevention, Detection and Assessment (PD&A) of fraudulent activities. In many countries, carrying out an Internal Audit is a legal compulsion for public companies, in order to establish an effective, and efficient IAF. This study aims to explore the relationship between the various attributes of IAF (effectiveness, independence, staff training, qualification and experience), and the PD&A of fraudulent activities in Pakistan. For this purpose, the convenient sampling technique, for data collection, is used and the questionnaires are collected from the respondents belonging to Pakistan. The questionnaire has been prepared in the form of a Likert scale. Respondents for this study include (1) staff members working in the Internal Audit (IA), finance and accounting departments of the companies listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and (2) staff members of firms that are engaged in external statutory audit in Pakistan. Descriptive statistics show the details regarding the demographic questions, IAF and PD&A of the fraudulent activities that take place in the companies. Moreover, in order to get to the effective and relevant results, the regression analysis is performed in order to find out if there exists any relationship between these variables. The results show that all five independent variables positively affect the PD&A of fraudulent activities. However, three of the independent variables (IAE, IAT, and IAQ) are statistically significant, whereas two of the variables taken into account (IAI, and IAE) are statistically insignificant. It is recommended that the IAF should be more independent, and effective so as to attain the required results. Moreover, firms should also focus on the qualifications and proper training of the staff that are responsible for executing the IAF.
Organizational behaviour, change and effectiveness. Corporate culture, Marketing. Distribution of products
Arezoo Nasirpour, Hossein Sharifi-Renani, Saeed Daei Karimzadeh
et al.
One of the important economic variables related to the foreign balance of countries is the current account balance of payments. Current account balance and budget balance are considered as important indicators of macroeconomic stability and welfare. The growing disequilibrium of the current account balance and the government budget balance lead to a macroeconomic imbalance. This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on current account deficits in selected oil-exporting countries (Algeria, Colombia, Ecuador, Gabon, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Angola, Congo, Indonesia, Malaysia, Trinidad, and Tobago) for the period 2000-2015 using a Panel Vector Autoregressive (P-VAR) model. The results indicate that monetary policy (by raising interest rates) will decrease the current account deficit. Considering that, in this research budget deficit coefficient is positive, as budget deficit increases (fiscal policy), the current account deficit decreases. In other words, the twin divergence hypothesis is approved for this group of countries, during the period under review. With increasing oil revenues, current account deficits will increase.
In early Islamic economics, five different dimensions of analysis are broadly identified. First, economic issues have been discussed by Mufassirin in the light of the Holy Quran. For instance, discussions on the
prohibition of usury and the encouragement of economic activities for human welfare. Second; economic
issues have been discussed in the light of Fiqh. For example the legal aspects of Mudharibah and Musharikah have been dealt within this discipline in great detail. Third; economic matters have been discussed by
Muslims in the light of ethical system of Islam for moral development. The works of Ulama, Sufis, Muslim
philosophers and reformers come under this category. Fourthly, some good pieces of works, related to
economics have been written by some great scholars of Islam in response to the needs of their times while
holding important government offices. The works related to public finance, public revenues, land tax, public expenditure fall under this category. The book Kitab al Kharaj by Imam Abu Yusuf is one such example.
Finally some Islamic Scholars and philosophers have provided objective analysis in the field of economics.
The analysis made by Imam Ghazzali, Ibn Taimiyah, Ibn Khaldun and lately by Shah Waliullah Dehlwi fall
under this category.
Badanie efektywności funduszy inwestycyjnych jest zjawiskiem dość często obserwowanym. Jednak tego typu analizy w zdecydowanej większości dotyczą funduszy akcji czy obligacji. Wydaje się, że fundusze nieruchomościowe z uwagi na to, że są stosunkowo młodym produktem na polskim rynku finansowym oraz z powodu diametralnie innego celu inwestycji powinny być przedmiotem szerokich badań. Celem prezentowanego opracowania było zbadanie efektywności wybranych funduszy inwestycyjnych lokujących swoje aktywa na polskim rynku nieruchomości w latach 2014–2016. W trakcie badań empirycznych przeanalizowano cztery wybrane fundusze inwestycyjne za pomocą relatywnych oraz bezwzględnych miar efektywności. Wyniki analizy ukazały, że większość funduszy inwestycyjnych działających na rynku nieruchomości osiągały słabe rezultaty, co może wynikać z braku umiejętności i wiedzy zarządzającego funduszem oraz złej polityki inwestycyjnej.