Hasil untuk "Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade"

Adrian Odenweller, F. Ueckerdt, G. Nemet et al.

LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, Eric Aubourg, Camille Avestruz et al.

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Alexis Marret, Frederico Fiuza

Fast, counter-streaming plasma outflows drive magnetic field amplification, plasma heating, and particle acceleration in numerous astrophysical environments, from supernova remnant shocks to active galactic nuclei jets. Understanding how, in the absence of Coulomb collisions, energy is redistributed between the different plasma species remains a fundamental open question. We use 3D fully-kinetic simulations to investigate energy partition in weakly magnetized counter-propagating plasmas. Our results reveal a complex interplay between different processes, where at early times the Weibel instability drives a first stage of magnetic field amplification and at late times the kinking of current filaments drives a second amplification stage via a dynamo-type mechanism. Electrons are heated primarily during the latter phase through magnetic pumping. By the time the flows thermalize, we observe that the final temperature ratio $T_e/T_i$ and energy partition depend on the ion-to-electron mass ratio. For electron-proton flows, the electron thermal energy only reaches up to a few percent of the initial ion kinetic energy.

Jean-David Caprace, C. Marques, L. F. Assis et al.

Maritime transport accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a figure projected to rise by 17% by 2050 without effective mitigation measures. Achieving zero-emission shipping requires a comprehensive strategy that integrates regulatory frameworks, alternative fuels, and energy-saving technologies. However, existing studies often fail to provide an integrated analysis of regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility. This study bridges this gap by developing an integrated model tailored for international maritime transport, incorporating regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility into a unified framework. The model is developed using a predictive approach to assess decarbonization pathways for global shipping from 2018 to 2035. A multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) framework, coupled with techno-economic modeling, evaluates the cost-effectiveness, technology readiness, and adoption potential of alternative fuels, operational strategies, and market-based measures. The results indicate that technical and operational measures alone can reduce emissions by up to 44%, while market-based measures improve the diversity of sustainable fuel adoption. Biofuels, particularly BISVO and BIFAME, emerge as preferred alternatives due to cost-effectiveness, while green hydrogen, ammonia, and biomethanol remain unviable without additional policy support. A strict carbon levy increases transport costs by 46%, whereas flexible compliance mechanisms limit cost increases to 14–25%. The proposed approach provides a robust decision-support framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders, ensuring transparency in evaluating the trade-offs between emissions reductions and economic feasibility, thereby guiding future regulatory strategies.

Xichun Luo, Honghao Zhao

With the development of urban cities and their economic growth, the increase of CO2 emissions has become challenging, since the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was officially established. To address this challenge, this study analyzes the historical trends in the RCEP economy and CO2 emissions and determines the decoupling state of each member country using the Tapio decoupling model. Furthermore, this research obtains the driving factors affecting CO2 emissions using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model and analyses the driving forces of each member country to achieve the decoupling process by combining the LMDI and Tapio decoupling models. The results show that (1) Japan is the best decoupling country in terms of the decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions, while China has the most stable performance. Overall, developed countries exhibit better decoupling state than developing countries. From the aspect of proportion of decoupling states, the optimal state strong decoupling (SD) and the sub-optimal state weak decoupling (WD) account for 20.95 % and 31.43 %, respectively. The total percentage of these two states exceeds 50 %, which indicates a good decoupling status in the RCEP region. (2) The key drivers of CO2 emission growth are economic and population effects, while the key driver of carbon emission reduction is the energy intensity effect. (3) The energy intensity effect is the main driver to achieve the decoupling process, while the greatest obstacle to the decoupling process is the economic effect. Finally, this study provides policy recommendations for the early realization of the decoupling process of economic growth and CO2 emissions in RCEP member countries.

Xiangwei Guo, Gang Chen, Liangjun Zhao et al.

When lithium batteries are used in energy storage systems, due to the low voltage of cells, it is necessary to connect multiple cells in series to form a battery pack that meets the application requirements. There is an unavoidable consistency difference between cells of the same type, and after the cells are formed into a group, the consistency difference will have a serious impact on the cycle life, and jeopardize the safety of the battery pack. To improve the consistency difference of series-connected battery packs, a modular hierarchical active equalization method based on inductors is proposed. First, the topology is proposed in combination with the high accuracy of inductor-based equalization, and its working principle and parameter design are analyzed. Second, based on the equalization principle, a matching adaptive equalization control strategy is designed. Again, the equalization performance of the proposed equalization method is analyzed, which shows that the proposed method has the advantages of fast equalization speed, low topological cost and simple control. Finally, an experimental platform for the equalization of a 9-cell series-connected battery pack is established to verify the effectiveness of the proposed equalization method. The proposed method can significantly improve the consistency difference of the series-connected battery pack, and then improve its energy utilization and cycle life.

Akan Ime Ibokette, Tunde Olamide Ogundare, Jamiu Seun Akindele et al.

The U.S. maritime industry plays a significant role in global trade and is a substantial contributor to carbon emissions, with the sector facing increasing pressure to decarbonize in line with global climate goals. This paper discusses the challenges and strategies for decarbonizing the U.S. maritime industry, laying emphasis on the adoption of zero-emission vessel (ZEV) technologies, such as battery-electric ships, hydrogen fuel cells, wind-assisted propulsion, and alternative fuels like bio-LNG and ammonia. Despite the availability of these technologies, the transition to ZEVs faces several barriers, including high capital costs, regulatory inconsistencies, and insufficient infrastructure. Existing regulatory frameworks, including the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) emissions targets, the U.S. Clean Air Act, and the U.S. Coast Guard requirements, offer some guidance but are often fragmented and insufficiently aligned to foster widespread adoption of decarbonization technologies. Upcoming mandates, such as the IMO's 2050 target, further brings to view the urgency of this transition. However, gaps in regulations and the lack of incentives hinder technological innovation and fleet modernization. The paper also discusses the need for enhanced governmental involvement, with organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Maritime Administration (MARAD), and the U.S. Coast Guard playing a critical role in streamlining policies and supporting the adoption of zero-emission technologies. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing infrastructure gaps related to fueling, charging, and port readiness for ZEVs. Furthermore, it highlights operational challenges such as range, performance, and energy density concerns that must be overcome for ZEVs to become commercially viable. The paper advocates for stronger policy frameworks, including subsidies, tax incentives, carbon pricing, and investment in research and development, to drive the transition. Public-private partnerships and industry collaboration are essential to overcoming financial barriers and creating a sustainable, decarbonized maritime sector. By implementing these strategies, the U.S. maritime industry can significantly reduce its emissions, contribute to global climate goals, and set a precedent for sustainable maritime practices worldwide.

Qingqin WANG, Guobiao WEN

[Introduction] In the backdrop of the increasingly scarce availability of sea-based wind farms in near-sea shallow water areas and the trend towards deeper and wider waters, as well as larger and more concentrated facilities, a discussion is presented on a distributed offshore wind energy system that integrates energy and transportation, in order to avoid the commonly encountered issues of large-scale offshore wind farms in open waters, such as extensive sea-area requirements and impacts on shipping safety. [Method] Based on the existing or planned offshore wind farms in large ports, the best site was selected based on the built-in breakwaters that accompanied the port. After analyzing the functions and layouts of the port basin and the breakwater, the optimal layout of the offshore wind turbines and seabed cables was achieved through optimization. This could lead to improvements in technology, economics, policy, and environment in various aspects. [Result] Compared to over a dozen existing offshore wind farms built in open waters in China, the distributed offshore wind farm based on energy and transportation can significantly reduce the scope of operations and the area required for construction the sea-area，also lower the impact on shipping in the surrounding area. Furthermore, it is a relatively safe, economic, and environmentally friendly type of offshore wind farm site. [Conclusion] Through discussions on the selection and layout of distributed offshore wind farms based on energy and transportation, the advantages of this type of offshore wind farm, such as reducing the required sea area, minimizing marine obstacles, integrating supply and consumption, and reducing construction and operation costs, are described. This type of offshore wind farm can serve as an important supplement to the current single type of offshore wind farm and become a new type of incremental offshore wind farm site resource in the current stage.

Fatemeh Shayan, Hossein Harsij, Daniel Badulescu

The energy market integration in the Middle East is assessed by comparing the acting institutions in the Levant and Persian Gulf sub-regions. Pami Aalto's regional institution's theoretical framework and the case-oriented comparative research method are adopted for this purpose. Changes in the Levant region coincided with the Arab League's establishment. This league did not develop due to inappropriate bi-lateral energy relationships and a lack of effort among the inter-state trade institutions. Regional institutions, lacking order creation, next to the Arab League members' sovereignty disturb gas transmission, transit, and environmental protection regulations. The Arab League has recognized Israel as an energy-producing member and has reduced the political conflicts' intensity to improve Arabic leadership in the Levant integration. The Persian Gulf states' unilateral trade negotiations, sanctions imposed by the US and EU on Iran's energy sector, and political disputes between Iran and some Arab states prevent coherent regional integration, liberalization, and the launch of joint energy projects. In bi-lateral energy diplomacy competition between the regional great energy powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia outside the region is evident. Though the environmental stewardship institution supports green energy, the profit-interest has priority in these regions. The outcome of this article reveals the existence of constraints imposed on energy market integration in these sub-regions.

Christian Skafte Beck Clausen, Bo Nørregaard Jørgensen, Zheng Grace Ma

Abstract Software-in-the-Loop (SIL) testing is an approach used for verification and validation in the energy sector. However, there is no comprehensive overview of the application, potential, and challenges of SIL within this sector. Therefore, this paper conducts a thorough scoping review of the existing literature within the scope of SIL and related in-the-loop approaches in the energy sector. A total of 88 full-text articles from four significant databases ACM, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Web of Science are analyzed and categorized to map the purpose, methods, architecture, interoperability and protocols, technologies, challenges, and limitations. The results present a grand perspective of in-the-loop across several domains followed by an analysis of SIL in the energy sector. The application domains carry characteristics from complex systems, systems-of-systems, cyber-physical systems, critical systems, real-time systems, and sociotechnical systems. The energy sector and the automotive industry are amongst the most applied domains. Within energy- and electricity systems, hardware-based in-the-loop paradigms are mostly applied for testing low-level signaling, and SIL is used for control strategy testing, optimization, dispatching, and experimentation. The examined SIL architectures have distributed-, real-time, and closed-loop properties, and are constrained by specialized simulation power hardware. Future research should address how to systematically develop SIL testing environments with guiding principles to support application development for the future digitalized energy system.

Mona Ghaslani, Reza Rezaee, Omid Aboubakri et al.

Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) solid and liquid products may inhibit seed germination, necessitating post-treatment. The hydrothermal humification (HTH) method addresses this drawback by transforming inhibitory compounds, such as aromatics, into artificial humic acids (AHAs) and artificial fulvic acids (AFAs). This study introduces a novel approach by investigating the substitution of the commonly used alkaline agent in HTH, KOH, with hydrated lime to develop cost-effective hydrothermal fertilizers from sugar beet pulp, enriching them with AHAs. It assesses the effects of lime on AHA production and soluble organic compounds compared to KOH. The results indicate that lime significantly reduces furans (from 560 to 3.15 mg/kg DM in solid and from 344 to 3.86 mg/L in process liquid) and boosts sugars and organic acids, especially lactic acid (from 4.70 to 65.82 g/kg DM in solid and from 4.05 to 22.89 mg/L in process liquid), increasing hydrochar yield (68.8% with lime vs. 27.4% with KOH). Despite the lower AHA production with lime compared to KOH (3.47% vs. 15.50%), lime-treated hydrothermal products are abundant in calcium and magnesium, boasting a pH of 7. This property presents a safer and more efficient alternative to hydrothermal fertilizers. The characterization of AHAs aligns with standard and natural humic substances, while lime-assisted HTH products, applied at a level of 0.01% w/w, could significantly enhance wheat growth and nutrient uptake compared to the control group. Importantly, these products show no toxicity on Daphnia magna, underscoring their potential for sustainable agriculture.

Cheng Feng, Kedi Zheng, Lanqing Shan et al.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading is seen as a viable solution to handle the growing number of distributed energy resources in distribution networks. However, when dealing with large-scale consumers, there are several challenges that must be addressed. One of these challenges is limited communication capabilities. Additionally, prosumers may have specific preferences when it comes to trading. Both can result in serious asynchrony in peer-to-peer trading, potentially impacting the effectiveness of negotiations and hindering convergence before the market closes. This paper introduces a connection-aware P2P trading algorithm designed for extensive prosumer trading. The algorithm facilitates asynchronous trading while respecting prosumer's autonomy in trading peer selection, an often overlooked aspect in traditional models. In addition, to optimize the use of limited connection opportunities, a smart trading peer connection selection strategy is developed to guide consumers to communicate strategically to accelerate convergence. A theoretical convergence guarantee is provided for the connection-aware P2P trading algorithm, which further details how smart selection strategies enhance convergence efficiency. Numerical studies are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the connection-aware algorithm and the performance of smart selection strategies in reducing the overall convergence time.

Shinya Kato, SooCheol Lee, Yanmin He et al.

Japan faces the challenge of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth and energy security. This study aims to analyze the potential impact on Japan’s economy and industries if the country achieves its 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target, implements a power mix plan to meet that target, and simultaneously pursues the Growth Strategy Council’s proposal for a power mix plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The study also investigates an alternative carbon neutrality pathway without nuclear power. The research question is whether these low-carbon policies can lead to both economic growth and decarbonization in Japan. To address this question, the study uses the E3ME-FTT macroeconomic model with endogenous technology diffusion to simulate different policy scenarios and assess their economic and environmental impacts. The results indicate that by 2050, Japan could meet its carbon neutrality target, and at the same time, the GDP could increase by approximately 3% compared with the baseline scenario, with or without nuclear power. This growth is expected to occur in several sectors due to increased demand for decarbonization-related investments and strong private consumption. Additionally, the overall economy is expected to benefit from the increased demand for low-carbon and decarbonization-related investments, reduced costs associated with renewable energy generation, and an improved trade balance resulting from a significant decrease in fossil fuel imports.

D. Y. Zemlyansky, V. Chuzhenkova

D. Zemlyanskii, V. Chuzhenkova

The key factors in the regional consequences of the sanctions imposed in 2022 on certain sectors of the Russian economy were disruption of supply chains and production ties with foreign companies. The significance of these factors for the regional economy can be assessed through the indicator of production dependence on imports. The study revealed that low production dependence on imports is typical for the least developed regions that are poorly integrated into the international trade system, as well as individual regions specializing in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals, for which imports are more important than mass supplies of equipment and components. A high level of dependence is manifested in three types of regions: those specializing in machinery industry, entities on whose territory international ports are located, as well as territories where large investment projects are being implemented with the participation of foreign capital and/or with significant purchases of foreign equipment. Although in 2020–2021, production dependence on imports had practically no effect on the overall dynamics of the industry. In 2022 this factor again became significant and led to a deterioration in the situation in the group of regions with the maximum level of production dependence on imports. The strengthening of the negative impact of production dependence on imports, among other things, was the result of the policy of import substitution carried out in Russia over the past decade, aimed at directly replacing the supply of imported goods to the Russian market, primarily through the localization of the final stages of production. At the same time, the absence of a stimulating policy to increase competitiveness in export sectors through the development of own technologies and the production of technological equipment can lead to technological blocking and a long-term industrial crisis in regions with medium and low production dependence on imports.

Yudong Wang, Nengneng Xu, Xiao-Dong Zhou

In electrochemically active systems, such as fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries, researchers often modify the material chemistry or operating variables at one of the electrodes (e.g., the cathode) to investigate its properties. This approach assumes that changes in measured polarization and cell performance result solely from the modifications made to the selected electrode, while the conditions at the other electrode (e.g., the anode) remain constant. However, the potential interactions between the polarizations of these two electrodes have remained unclear. In our study, we utilize a voltage probe capable of precisely determining electrode polarization. Our findings reveal three key insights: 1. The quantification of electrode polarization becomes feasible through the implementation of a voltage probe. 2. The fuel electrode plays a pivotal role in the performance of state-of-the-art solid oxide cells, with its influence being comparable to that of the oxygen electrode. 3. A reciprocal interaction exists between the two electrodes within a solid oxide cell. Consequently, when there are changes in the chemistry or operational conditions at one electrode, the polarization of the other electrode changes simultaneously.

Ahmad Hamdan, Ahmed Al-Salaymeh, Issah M. AlHamad et al.

Abstract This work is executed to predict the variation in global temperature and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from climate change and global warming, taking into consideration the natural climate cycle. A mathematical model was developed using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with Long–Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Data sets of global temperature were collected from 800,000 BC to 1950 AD from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Furthermore, another data set was obtained from The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate website. This contained records from 1880 to 2019 of global temperature and carbon dioxide levels. Curve fitting techniques, employing Sin, Exponential, and Fourier Series functions, were utilized to reconstruct both NOAA and NASA data sets, unifying them on a consistent time scale and expanding data size by representing the same information over smaller periods. The fitting quality, assessed using the R-squared measure, ensured a thorough process enhancing the model's accuracy and providing a more precise representation of historical climate data. Subsequently, the time-series data were converted into a supervised format for effective use with the LSTM model for prediction purposes. Augmented by the Mean Squared Error (MSE) as the analyzed loss function, normalization techniques, and refined data representation from curve fitting the LSTM model revealed a sharp increase in global temperature, reaching a temperature rise of 4.8 °C by 2100. Moreover, carbon dioxide concentrations will continue to boom, attaining a value of 713 ppm in 2100. In addition, the findings indicated that the RNN algorithm (LSTM model) provided higher accuracy and reliable forecasting results as the prediction outputs were closer to the international climate models and were found to be in good agreement. This study contributes valuable insights into the trajectory of global temperature and GHG emissions, emphasizing the potential of LSTM models in climate prediction.

Benjamin K. Sovacool, Chad Baum, Sean Low

The impacts of global climate change on international security and geopolitics could be of historic proportion, challenging those of previous global threats such as nuclear weapons proliferation, the Great Depression, and terrorism. But while the evidence surrounding the security impacts of climate change is fairly well-understood and improving, less is known about the security risks to climate-technology deployment. In this study, we focus on the geopolitical, security, and military risks facing negative emissions and solar geoengineering options. Although controversial, these options could become the future backbone of a low-carbon or net-zero society, given that they avoid the need for coordinated or global action (and can be deployed by a smaller group of actors, even non-state actors), and that they can “buy time” for mitigation and other options to be scaled up. We utilize a large and diverse expert-interview exercise (N = 125) to critically examine the security risks associated with ten negative emission options (or greenhouse gas removal technologies) and ten solar geoengineering options (or solar radiation management technologies). We ask: What geopolitical considerations does deployment give rise to? What particular military applications exist? What risks do these options entail in terms of weaponization, misuse, and miscalculation? We examine such existing and prospective security risks across a novel conceptual framework envisioning their use as (i) diplomatic or military negotiating tools, (ii) objectives for building capacity, control, or deterrence, (iii) targets in ongoing conflicts, and (iv) causes of new conflicts. This enables us to capture a far broader spectrum of security concerns than those which exist in the extant literature and to go well beyond insights derived from climate modelling or game theory by drawing on a novel, rich, and original dataset of expert perceptions.

索克兰, 程林*, 许鹤麟 et al.

随着新能源并网比例持续上升，电池储能系统（battery energy storage system，BESS）的发展备受关注。逐渐完善其激励政策和市场机制，提升其经济效益，对其未来发展具有重要意义。但目前BESS的不同物理特性、政策和市场机制、退役电池的处理方式等问题仍亟待深入研究。分析了BESS的研究现状，包括不同物理特性、参与电力系统价值评估现状。从国内外储能政策的提出、电力市场的运营、碳市场的交易等方面综述了国内外BESS需求及市场机制，并分析了梯次利用BESS的适用场景与经济效益。分析了目前BESS经济性研究方法和商业模式，提出了BESS参与电力系统存在的问题，并且提出改善建议。

Hiromasa Suzuki, Aya Bamba, Ryo Yamazaki et al.

Supernova remnants (SNRs) are thought to be the most plausible sources of Galactic cosmic rays. One of the principal questions is whether they are accelerating particles up to the maximum energy of Galactic cosmic rays ($\sim$PeV). In this paper, we summarize our recent studies on gamma-ray-emitting SNRs. We first evaluated the reliability of SNR age estimates to quantitatively discuss time dependence of their acceleration parameters. Then we systematically modeled their gamma-ray spectra to constrain the acceleration parameters. The current maximum energy estimates were found to be well below PeV for most sources. The basic time dependence of the maximum energy assuming the Sedov evolution ($\approx t^{-0.8\pm0.2}$) cannot be explained with the simplest acceleration condition (Bohm limit) and requires shock-ISM (interstellar medium) interaction. The inferred maximum energies during lifetime averaged over the sample can be expressed as $\lesssim 20$ TeV ($t_{\rm M}/\text{1 kyr})^{-0.8}$ with $t_{\rm M}$ being the age at the maximum, which reaches $\sim$PeV only if $t_{\rm M} \lesssim 10$ yr. The maximum energies during lifetime are suggested to have a variety of 1-2 orders of magnitude from object to object on the other hand. This variety will reflect the dependence on environments.