Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

Jose Angelo Divino, Philipp Ehrl, Osvaldo Candido et al.

This paper estimates own- and cross-price elasticities of cigarette consumption in licit and illicit markets. Using propensity score matching (PSM), we pair comparable licit- and illicit-cigarette consumers to assign hypothetical prices and address the challenge of exclusive consumption of just one type. The analysis focuses on Brazil, a developing country with a significant illicit cigarette market, using individual data from the 2013 and 2019 National Health Surveys (PNS). Illicit market identification relies on declared brands and official minimum prices. Results show that cross-price elasticities indicate a switching demand effect following illicit cigarette price changes in 2013, but not in 2019. However, changes in licit cigarette prices do not significantly influence switching demand in either year or in the combined sample. Across all models, illicit cigarette consumers exhibit lower price sensitivity than their licit counterparts, highlighting distinct behaviors in response to market dynamics.

Karim Soussou

This study examined how key macroeconomic indicators, such as the federal funds rate, inflation rate, real GDP growth rate, S&P 500 returns, DXY index returns, and major external shocks, affect the performance of U.S. equity mutual funds in the technology sector amid evolving socioeconomic challenges. Using multiple linear regression, the analysis evaluated the individual contributions and statistical significance of these variables in explaining variations in fund returns, particularly as technology-focused funds reacted to shifting macroeconomic conditions shaped by broader socioeconomic challenges. The dataset covered the period from 2012 to 2022, providing a comprehensive perspective on the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and fund performance over time during a decade characterized by substantial economic, geopolitical, and technological transitions and intensifying socioeconomic challenges. A sample of seven technology-focused U.S. equity mutual funds was selected based on thematic relevance, data availability, and heterogeneity in investment strategies, reflecting how different fund profiles respond to ongoing socioeconomic challenges. The results showed that the federal funds rate, S&P 500 returns, and external shocks exerted significant positive effects on fund performance, whereas the inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and DXY index returns had significant negative effects, patterns that became more pronounced under conditions shaped by socioeconomic challenges. The statistical significance of the model’s constant term further underscores the likelihood that additional, unobserved determinants, potentially linked to underlying socioeconomic challenges, influence mutual fund returns beyond those captured in the model. Overall, the study deepens understanding of how macroeconomic dynamics shape mutual funds’ performance within a sector particularly sensitive to global economic conditions, capital market fluctuations, and persistent socioeconomic challenges, offering practical insights for investors, fund managers, and policymakers. Nonetheless, the analysis is limited by constraints in data availability. Future research may benefit from expanding the set of explanatory variables, increasing the sample size and diversity of funds, exploring additional sectors and geographic regions, and integrating complementary qualitative methods to provide richer contextual interpretation of macro-financial relationships in light of ongoing socioeconomic challenges.

N. S. Gonchar

The state of economic theory and accumulated facts from the different branches of the economic science require to analyze the concept of the description of economy systems. The economic reality generates the problems the solution of that is only possible by a new paradigm of the description of economy system. The classical mathematical economics is based on a notion of the rational consumer choice generated by a certain preference relation on some set of goods a consumer wanted and the concept of maximization of the firm profit. The sense of the notion of the ratio- nal consumer choice is that it is determined by a certain utility function, defining the choice of a consumer by maximization of it on a certain budget set of goods. More- over, choices of consumers are independent. In the reality choices of consumers are not independent because they depend on the firms supply. Except the firms supply, the consumer choice is also determined by information about the state of the economy system that the consumer has and respectively eval- uates at the moment of the choice. In turn, the firms supply is made on the basis of needs of the consumers and their buying power. By information about the state of the economy system we understand a certain information about the equilibrium price vector and productive processes realized in the economy system under the equilibrium price vector.

Dahlia Saba, Dominic Groß

In this article, we investigate small-signal frequency and DC voltage stability of hybrid AC/DC power systems that combine AC and DC transmission, conventional machine- based generation, and converter-interfaced generation. The main contributions of this work are a compact frequency domain representation of hybrid AC/DC systems and associated stability conditions that can be divided into conditions on the individual bus dynamics and conditions on each DC network. The bus- level conditions apply to a wide range of technologies (e.g., synchronous generators, synchronous condensers, grid-forming renewables and energy storage). Moreover, the system-level conditions establish that hybrid AC/DC systems combining a wide range of devices are stable independently of the network topology provided that the frequency response of converters on each DC network is sufficiently coherent relative to the network coupling strength. Additionally, we develop and validate a novel reduced- order damper winding model for multi-machine systems.

Halina Kiryluk, Joanna Godlewska, Maciej Cygler

Universities have an important role to play in the process of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations in its 2015 Declaration, which specifically addresses their contribution in the areas of education, research and social impact. The main objective of the article is to review the approaches of Polish higher education institutions (HEIs) to the formulation of sustainable development strategies by reference to their position in international rankings. The study focused on three international rankings: UI GreenMetric, THE Impact Rankings and QS World University Rankings: Sustainability. The methodology used included literature review and critique, analysis of documents and other source materials, descriptive analysis and comparative analysis. The paper contributes to deepening and advancing the academic debate on the role of universities in achieving the SDGs and improving institutional governance to accelerate progress towards their implementation.

Germán González , Juliana Schmidt

Los cultivos de soja y maíz son fundamentales en la estructura económica argentina porque dan origen a sus dos principales complejos exportadores y, por ende, representan una fuente significativa de recursos fiscales. Los cambios asimétricos en los incentivos al nivel del productor pueden tener repercusiones macroeconómicas relevantes. Este trabajo aborda teóricamente el estudio de los efectos esperados de la imposición asimétrica en las decisiones de los productores de dos bienes con elasticidad cruzada de oferta negativa. De la aplicación de dicho marco se llega a la conclusión de que los comportamientos del área cultivada de maiz y de la soja pueden ser teóricamente atribuibles al ensanchamiento en la brecha entre las alícuotas del impuesto a las exportaciones.

Xin Qin, Ioannis Lestas, Bolun Xu

Economic withholding in electricity markets refers to generators bidding higher than their true marginal fuel cost, and is a typical approach to exercising market power. However, existing market designs require storage to design bids strategically based on their own future price predictions, motivating storage to conduct economic withholding without assuming market power. As energy storage takes up more significant roles in wholesale electricity markets, understanding its motivations for economic withholding and the consequent effects on social welfare becomes increasingly vital. This paper derives a theoretical framework to study the economic capacity withholding behavior of storage participating in competitive electricity markets and validate our results in simulations based on the ISO New England system. We demonstrate that storage bids can reach unbounded high levels under conditions where future price predictions show bounded expectations but unbounded deviations. Conversely, in scenarios with peak price limitations, we show the upper bounds of storage bids are grounded in bounded price expectations. Most importantly, we show that storage capacity withholding can potentially lower the overall system cost when price models account for system uncertainties. Our paper reveals energy storage is not a market manipulator but an honest player contributing to the social welfare. It helps electricity market researchers and operators better understand the economic withholding behavior of storage and reform market policies to maximize storage contributing to a cost-efficient decolonization.

Ravi Jagadeesan, Alexander Teytelboym

This paper develops a theory of competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods based entirely on economic conditions on demand. The key idea is to analyze complementarity and substitutability between bundles of goods, rather than merely between goods themselves. This approach allows us to formulate sufficient, and essentially necessary, conditions for equilibrium existence, which unify settings with complements and settings with substitutes. Our analysis has implications for auction design.

Sergei Masaev

The activity of a special economic zone is defined by a dynamic equation, taking into account the individual strategies of residents. At a given point in time, in respect to the resident enterprise of a special economic zone, a regime is introduced that limits the flow of resources by 80% (sanctions), forming an integral indicator for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of sanctions on the enterprise. On the basis of the dynamic equation, an estimate of the economic damage for the potential SEZ of the Krasnoyarsk Territory is given.

Oscar Esteban Morillo Martínez

En este artículo se pretende desarrollar la idea del Supermultiplicador Sraffiano, presentándolo como una alternativa al pensamiento neoclásico tradicional sobre el crecimiento económico y la política económica, De esta forma, se hace una breve introducción acerca de la importancia del crecimiento económico para los economistas clásicos, seguido del desarrollo del modelo de Harrod y las diferentes soluciones que se han planteado al problema de inestabilidad. Finalmente, se presenta el modelo de supermultiplicador de Serrano junto a la evidencia empírica internacional que le respalda; por último se desarrollan propuestas de política económica.

Andrii Babii, Eric Ghysels, Jonas Striaukas

This paper surveys the recent advances in machine learning method for economic forecasting. The survey covers the following topics: nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.

Alejandro Passeggi, Fabio Armando Tal

This work investigates topological chaos for homeomorphisms of the open annulus, introducing a new set of sufficient conditions based on points with distinct rotation numbers and their topological relation to invariant continua. These conditions allow us to formulate classic methods for verifying annular chaos in a finitely verifiable version supported on basic properties of the map. The results pave the way for simple computer-assisted proofs of chaos in a wide range of annular maps, including many well known examples, and we present these proofs for some analytic families, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method. On the theoretical side, one of the consequences of the established conditions permits the proof of a folkloric conjecture about the relation between topological entropy and rotation sets.

Kian Tehranian

Quantitative models are an important decision-making factor for policy makers and investors. Predicting an economic recession with high accuracy and reliability would be very beneficial for the society. This paper assesses machine learning technics to predict economic recessions in United States using market sentiment and economic indicators (seventy-five explanatory variables) from Jan 1986 - June 2022 on a monthly basis frequency. In order to solve the issue of missing time-series data points, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method used to backcast explanatory variables. Analysis started with reduction in high dimensional dataset to only most important characters using Boruta algorithm, correlation matrix and solving multicollinearity issue. Afterwards, built various cross-validated models, both probability regression methods and machine learning technics, to predict recession binary outcome. The methods considered are Probit, Logit, Elastic Net, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Neural Network. Lastly, discussed different models performance based on confusion matrix, accuracy and F1 score with potential reasons for their weakness and robustness.

Victor Boussange, Didier Sornette, Heike Lischke et al.

The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This hypothesis is compelling because it explains economic change through endogenous mechanisms, but it has not been quantitatively tested at the global economy level. Here, we use an inverse modelling technique and 59 years of economic data covering 77 countries to test whether the collective dynamics of national economic activities can be characterised by eco-evolutionary processes. We estimate the statistical support of dynamic community models in which the dynamics of economic activities are coupled with positive and negative interactions between the activities, the spatial dispersal of the activities, and their transformations into other economic activities. We find strong support for the models capturing positive interactions between economic activities and spatial dispersal of the activities across countries. These results suggest that processes akin to those occurring in ecosystems play a significant role in the dynamics of economic systems. The strength-of-evidence obtained for each model varies across countries and may be caused by differences in the distance between countries, specific institutional contexts, and historical contingencies. Overall, our study provides a new quantitative, biologically inspired framework to study the forces shaping economic change.

Kerstin Bruckmeier, Jürgen Wiemers

Abstract In its coalition agreement, the German government proposes a reorganisation of the rules of earned income to be considered as a means test of basic income. In doing so, it takes up a frequently voiced criticism of the design of the basic income support for job-seekers under Book II of the Social Code. In recent years, researchers have called for a strengthening of (monetary) incentives to work, especially to take up employment with higher weekly working hours. In this paper, we summarise potential effects of such a reform on labour supply, the income distribution and the government budget in the context of a complex welfare system characterised by a high level of benefit non-take-up.

Maria A. Shishanina, Anatoly A. Sidorov

The paper discusses the process of social and economic development of municipalities. A conclusion is made that developing an adequate model of social and economic development using conventional approaches presents a considerable challenge. It is proposed to use semantic modeling to represent the social and economic development of municipalities, and cognitive mapping to identify the set of connections that occur among indicators and that have a direct impact on social and economic development.

Richard S. J. Tol

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.

Juan M. Graña, Lucas Terranova

Este artículo examina la vigencia de los procesos de desindustrialización de un grupo de países desarrollados y de Argentina, desde 1992 a 2017. Considerando las dinámicas de la competencia capitalista, se propone una actualización del debate sobre dichos procesos de forma agregada, a la vez que se realiza un estudio entre los distintos estratos de tamaño que presentan las empresas en cada uno de los países. A partir de ello, las comparaciones al interior de cada uno y entre ellos permiten identificar diversas trayectorias, aun en procesos de desindustrialización “positiva”. Al mismo tiempo, exhibe las diferencias existentes con las desindustrializaciones “prematuras”, como la del caso argentino.

Sonia Elena POPESCU

With corresponding theoretical concepts from both analysed periods (communist and present) as reference, this article will discuss the main differences between the communist period and the present in relation to the presentation of financial statements in Romania. We shall analyse the distinctions and similarities between the two periods, ultimately forming a conclusion encompassing the degree and direction in which this process has evolved in our country.

Diego Aycinena, Szabolcs Blazsek, Lucas Rentschler et al.

Inter-temporal preferences are important determinants of investment decisions, including investments in human capital. Yet, little is known about these preferences for recipients of conditional cash transfers (CCTs). We simultaneously estimate utility curvature (preference for consumption smoothing), discounting, and present biasedness for such recipients. We also introduce a financially motivated method of measuring willingness to forgo funds to control household finances. We find that female participants in a CCT program in Guatemala have very high degrees of utility curvature and low discount factors, which may lead to low levels of investment by participants in the human capital of the household. We also find that intra-household conflict is not significantly related to consumption smoothing, discounting, or present bias.