Hasil untuk "Balance of trade"

A. Maizels, M. Nissanke

Fred MUSINGUZI

This study examines the effect of terms of trade on the economic development of Rwanda. The research aims to address four key objectives and three control variables to examine the effect of the TOT on Rwanda’s economic development, following several estimating methods utilizing the Stata statistical package software, Descriptive statistics are employed in this study to evaluate the quantitatively secondary data collected on all study variables from Data spanning from 2000 to 2023 was sourced from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A time series analysis using econometric models such as multiple regression, the study employs a documentary data collection technique to gather the necessary information from reliable sources, ensuring a robust dataset for analysis using A regression model was applied to examine the relationship between the independent and dependent variables, incorporating unit root and co-integration tests. The key finds shows that, the unit root test results indicate that some variables, such as Ln GDP, Ln pop, Ln trad log, and Ln inst, are stationary at level (I(0)), meaning they do not exhibit stochastic trends and can be used directly in regression models, while the exports, imports, trade balance, and foreign direct investment The variables are non-stationary at their levels but achieve stationarity after first differencing (I(1)), indicating the existence of stochastic trends. Lag selection using criteria like AIC, FPE, and LR tests identified lag 4 as the optimal lag length, which ensures the appropriate capture of dynamic relationships among variables while preventing overfitting. And we recommend that the Government of Rwanda and the policy maker to prioritize on improving trade logistics efficiency to facilitate smoother trade processes, reduce transaction costs, and enhance the competitiveness of exports. Fostering an efficient logistics sector is critical to addressing challenges related to trade facilitation.

Jorge Murillo-Domínguez, Mario Molina-Almaraz, Eduardo García-Sánchez et al.

Accurate solar forecasting is critical for photovoltaic integration, particularly in regions with complex terrain and limited observations. This study benchmarks five deep learning architectures—MLP, RNN, LSTM, CNN, and a Grey Wolf Optimizer–enhanced MLP (MLP–GWO)—to evaluate the accuracy–computational efficiency trade-off for generating daily solar potential maps from ERA5 reanalysis over Mexico. Models were trained using a strict temporal split on a high-dimensional grid (85 × 129 points, flattened to 10,965 outputs) and evaluated in terms of predictive skill and hardware cost. The RNN achieved the best overall performance (RMSE ≈ 32.3, MAE ≈ 27.8, R² ≈ 0.96), while the MLP provided a competitive lower-complexity alternative (RMSE ≈ 54.8, MAE ≈ 46.0, R² ≈ 0.88). In contrast, the LSTM and CNN showed poorer generalization, and the MLP–GWO failed to converge. For the CNN, this underperformance is linked to the intentionally flattened spatial representation. Overall, the results indicate that within a specific ERA5-based, daily-resolution, and resource-constrained experimental framework, lightweight architectures such as RNNs and MLPs offer the most favorable balance between accuracy and computational efficiency. These findings position them as efficient surrogates of ERA5-derived daily solar potential suitable for large-scale, preliminary energy planning applications.

Yaqiu Liu, Yuqi Wang, Muhammad Imran et al.

Xiangyi Wang, Yingbin He, Huicong Chen et al.

Abstract Accurate crop yield estimation is vital for global food security and trade. Despite the superior performance of deep learning (DL) models, their “black box” nature undermines trust in critical decision-making. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) improves transparency and interactivity, but the ability of XAI models to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy remains insufficiently assessed, limiting their broader application in real-world scenarios. This study proposes the XAI-Crop framework and, using major soybean-producing countries as case studies and a multi-country comparative experimental design, employs multi-source data to evaluate and compare the performance differences between the inherently interpretable DL model—Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN)—and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as well as Random Forest (RF) models. In small-sample settings, KAN achieves predictive accuracy and generalization comparable to MLP and RF while offering improved interpretability. Feature importance analysis reveals significant regional variability in yield-driving factors, with solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) consistently emerging as a highly sensitive predictor across all regions. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of XAI approaches, such as KAN, in bridging the gap between model accuracy and interpretability, paving the way for their integration into agricultural decision-support systems and contributing to sustainable agricultural development.

Andrew Kizito Seruma, George Owuor, Dickson Okello

Abstract Uganda’s dairy sector suffers significant economic losses from disease outbreaks and milk contamination, undermining farmer incomes and public health. This study evaluates the adoption of food safety measures (FSMs) among 757 smallholder dairy farmers in Central Uganda, the country’s leading milk-producing region, using semi-structured questionnaires, which were administered through interviews. FSMs were categorized into milk hygiene, storage, environmental hygiene, and animal health, revealing an overall adoption rate of 62.88%. While milk storage practices showed the highest compliance (73.5%), critical gaps persisted in sanitization (8.1% for utensils), mastitis prevention (7.1% dry cow therapy adoption), and full implementation of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles (27.6%). The findings indicate that the majority of the farmers prioritized visible hygiene practices (97.4% cleaned utensils) over scientifically vital controls, creating a hygiene paradox that leaves milk vulnerable to pathogens like Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, and Escherichia coli. Although 75% used Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), most relied on unwritten, experience-based protocols rather than formal documentation. The findings underscore urgent policy actions: (1) targeted training to bridge the knowledge-action gap, particularly in sanitization and HACCP; (2) economic incentives, such as premium pricing for safety-compliant milk, to motivate adoption; and (3) gender-responsive interventions, as women dominate smallholder labor but face access barriers. Innovative approaches like farmer living labs and mobile-enabled monitoring could democratize food safety knowledge. By aligning market incentives with regulatory enforcement, Uganda can transform its dairy sector, safeguarding consumer health while boosting farmer incomes and trade competitiveness. This study provides a roadmap for low-resource settings to balance pragmatic food safety improvements with smallholder realities.

Hasan Fazzaa Zidan, Jabran Iskandar Rafeeq

Aims: This study aimed to analyze the strategic importance of the island of ‎Cyprus in the context of regional and international conflicts in the ‎Mediterranean basin. The study also aimed to highlight the historical ambitions ‎of the major powers to control the island as a vital pivotal point influencing the ‎balance of power in the region. The study also examined the dimensions of the ‎British-Turkish-Greek rivalry over Cyprus and its geopolitical implications. ‎Methodology: The study adopted the historical analytical approach, tracing the ‎developments in political and military control over the island of Cyprus, ‎referring to relevant international agreements and historical sources, and ‎analyzing the positions of regional and international powers from a strategic ‎perspective that links the island's geographical location with its military and ‎commercial importance. Results: The study showed that the island of Cyprus ‎has had increasing importance since the late nineteenth century, especially after ‎Britain gained control of it from the Ottoman Empire, granting it significant ‎maritime influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The study also demonstrated ‎that the island's location made it a focus of conflict, both as a platform for ‎controlling trade routes and as a strategic military base capable of threatening ‎the maritime interests of surrounding powers. Furthermore, Turkey later ‎realized this importance, prompting it to intervene militarily and confront ‎Greek influence on the island. Conclusions: The study concluded that Cyprus ‎was not just an island in the Mediterranean, but represented a location of ‎utmost strategic importance throughout its history, making it a hotbed of ‎regional and international competition. Moreover, its geopolitical position ‎remained a focus of conflict among surrounding powers, reflecting its ‎continued vital role in the region's security and control equations.‎

Alessandro Barattieri, M. Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi

Abstract We study the macroeconomic effects of protectionism. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock, causing output to fall and inflation to rise in the short run. Moreover, protectionism has at best a small positive effect on the trade balance. Second, we build a small open economy model with firm heterogeneity, endogenous selection into trade, and nominal rigidity that successfully reproduces the VAR evidence. The model highlights the importance of aggregate investment dynamics and micro-level reallocations for the contractionary effects of tariffs. We then use the model to study scenarios where temporary trade barriers have been advocated as potentially beneficial, including recessions with binding constraints on monetary policy easing or in the presence of a fixed exchange rate. In all the scenarios we consider, protectionism is not an effective tool for macroeconomic stimulus.

Priya Malhotra

Purpose – Passive investing has established itself as the dominant force in the world of professionally managed assets, surpassing the concept of index funds. Its meteoric rise is fueled by investors’ preference for its dual benefits of strong diversification and low cost. A comprehensive study of the economic model, addressed areas and market structure has not yet been conducted, despite the existence of numerous studies on more specific topics. To address this gap, this paper examines 943 articles on passive investing published between 1998 and 2022 in SCOPUS and Web of Science. Design/methodology/approach – The study utilizes the most pertinent tools for conducting a systematic review by the PRISMA framework. This article is the result of SLR and extensive bibliometric analysis. Contextualized systematic literature review is used to screen and select bibliographic data, which is then subjected to a variety of bibliometric analyses. The study provides a bibliometric overview of works on passive investment research that are indexed in Scopus and Web of Science. Bibliometrix, VoS Viewer and Cite Space are the tools used to conduct content and network analysis, to ascertain the present state of research, as well as its focus and direction. Findings – Our exhaustive analysis yields important findings. One, the previous decade has witnessed a substantial increase in the number of publications and citations; in particular, the inter-disciplinary and international scope of related research has expanded; Second, the top three clusters on “active versus passive funds,” “price discovery and market structures” and “exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an alternative” account for more than fifty percent of the domain’s knowledge; Third, “Leveraged ETFs (LETFs)” and “environmental, social and governance (ESG)” are the two emerging themes in the passive investing research. Fourth, despite its many benefits, passive investing is not suitable for everyone. To get the most out of what passive investing has to offer, investors, intermediaries and regulators must all exercise sufficient caution. Our study makes a substantial contribution to the field by conducting a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the existing literature, highlighting key findings and implications, as well as future research directions. Research limitations/implications – While the study contributes significantly to the field of knowledge, it has several limitations that must be considered when interpreting its findings and implications. With our emphasis on academic journals, the study analyzed only peer-reviewed journal articles, excluding conference papers, reports and technical articles. While we are confident that our approach resulted in a comprehensive and representative database, our reliance on Elsevier Scopus and Web of Science may have resulted in us overlooking relevant work accessible only through other databases. Additionally, specific bibliometric properties may not be time-stable, and certain common distribution patterns of the passive investing literature may still be developing. Practical implications – With this study, it has been possible to observe and chart the high growth trajectory of passive investing research globally, especially post-US subprime crisis. Despite the widespread adoption of passive investing as an investment strategy, it is not a one-size-fits-all proposition. Market conditions change constantly, and it frequently requires an informed eye to determine when and how much to shift away from active investments and toward passive ones. Currency ETFs enable investors to implement a carry trade strategy in their portfolios; however, as a word of caution, currency stability and liquidity can play a significant role in international ETFs. Similarly, LETFs may be better suited for dynamic strategies and offer less value to a long-term investor. Lastly, the importance of investor education cannot be underestimated in the name of the highly diversified portfolio when using passive alternatives, for which necessary efforts are required by regulators and investors alike. Social implications – The inexorable trend to passive investing creates numerous issues for fund management, including fee and revenue pressure, which forces traditional managers to seek new revenue streams, such as illiquid and private assets, which also implies increased portfolio risk. Additionally, the increased transparency and efficiency associated with the ETF market indicates that managers must rethink the entire value chain, beginning with technology and the way investments interact. Passive investments have triggered changes in market structure that are still not fully understood or factored in. Active management and a range of valuation opinions on whether a price is “too low” or “too high” provide much-needed depth to a market as it attempts to strike a delicate balance between demand and supply forces, ensuring liquidity at all price points. Originality/value – I hereby certify that I am the sole author of this paper and that no part of this manuscript has been published or submitted for publication.

Wangari Ng’ang’a, Mercy Mwangangi, Agnes Gatome-Munyua

In this commentary, two members of the technical teams that led Kenyan health reforms reflect on progress made in the country’s journey toward universal health coverage during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s second term (2017 to 2022). The authors discuss how key decisions were made while balancing multiple considerations such as: maintaining the technical fidelity of the reforms to achieve objectives, accounting for the context of previous reforms, and making necessary trade-offs between technical and political pressures. They share three lessons, contextualized with African proverbs, for others implementing health reforms. First: “The person who does not seize today’s opportunity will also be unable to seize tomorrow’s opportunity”—that is, act quickly when opportunities arise. Second: “The person who cannot dance will say, ‘The drum is bad!’” This implies that naysayers, especially those who are not part of technical teams, may not understand the reasons behind certain decisions or trade-offs. Reformers must balance different needs, including responding to varied opinions, taking urgent action, generating timely results, making technically sound decisions, and getting the design right. And third: “A bird that flies from the ground onto an anthill does not know that it is still on the ground.” This proverb reminds us to not mistake short-term gains for the achievement of long-term goals. Kenya continues to enjoy unprecedented political will to pursue health reforms. For other reformers lucky enough to have political support, the final advice to the technical teams in the driver’s seat is to design for delivery … and then start!

Stefan Avdjiev, Valentina Bruno, C. Koch et al.

Jiaming Song, Pratyusha Kalluri, Aditya Grover et al.

Learning data representations that are transferable and are fair with respect to certain protected attributes is crucial to reducing unfair decisions while preserving the utility of the data. We propose an information-theoretically motivated objective for learning maximally expressive representations subject to fairness constraints. We demonstrate that a range of existing approaches optimize approximations to the Lagrangian dual of our objective. In contrast to these existing approaches, our objective allows the user to control the fairness of the representations by specifying limits on unfairness. Exploiting duality, we introduce a method that optimizes the model parameters as well as the expressiveness-fairness trade-off. Empirical evidence suggests that our proposed method can balance the trade-off between multiple notions of fairness and achieves higher expressiveness at a lower computational cost.

J. Speakman, E. Król

Bravina R.I.

The paper is concerned with the history of collecting and trade of fossil mammoth bones as a traditional occupation of the indigenous population of the East Siberian Arctic in the 17th — early 20th c. For a long time the indigenous peoples of the North practiced individual collecting, incidental in the course of hunting, of fossil bones for their household needs. Meanwhile, archaic ideas about the mammoth as a sacred chthonic animal served as a regulator of ecological balance of the traditional nature management, introducing constraints on the scope of the search and size of the spoils. Starting from the 17th c., the search for and quarry of fossil bone are most closely connected with the history of the colonization and exploration of the Arctic regions of Eastern Siberia by Russian pioneers. In the context of the development of commodity-money relations on the sea islands, artels were formed from among the northern Yakuts and Russian Arctic old-settlers, supplying tusk to the merchants who traded in furs and mammoth tusks. The extraction of fossil mammoth bones reached its peak in the middle of the 19th c., when the “Russian, or Moscow ivory” was current on the world market as the fifth grade, with the total assortment of six grades. At the turn of the 19th–20th cc. the mammoth ivory industry in Yakutia was experiencing a crisis; the demand for the products of mammoth ivory within the country was decreasing, merchants could not find markets, and ivory harvesting in Africa increased. However, despite these factors, this occupation preserved in places until the 1930s. In the modern conditions of the development of the Arctic, inclusion of collection and extraction of mammoth tusks in the list of traditional economic activities will help to solve economic and legal problems in this region in the interests of the indigenous population.

Mirabelle Muûls

This paper analyzes the interaction between credit constraints and trading behavior, decomposing trade in extensive and intensive margins. I construct a unique dataset containing firm-level trade transaction data, balance sheets and credit scores from an independent credit insurance company for Belgian manufacturing firms between 1999 and 2007. Firms are more likely to be exporting or importing if they enjoy lower credit constraints. Also, firms that have better credit rating export and import more. Importing and exporting behaviors differ in how both the level and growth of the various margins of trade are related to credit constraints in one important dimension. In the case of exports, it is the intensive and extensive margins of exports in terms of both product and destinations that are significantly associated with credit constraints whereas for imports it is the extensive margin in terms of products only.

N. Maury, G. C. Roberts, G. C. Roberts et al.

<p>Trade wind cumulus clouds have a significant impact on the Earth's radiative balance due to their ubiquitous presence and significant coverage in subtropical regions. Many numerical studies and field campaigns have focused on better understanding the thermodynamic, microphysical, and macroscopic properties of cumulus clouds with ground-based and satellite remote sensing as well as in situ observations. Aircraft flights have provided a significant contribution, but their resolution remains limited by rectilinear transects and fragmented temporal data for individual clouds. To provide a higher spatial and temporal resolution, remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) can now be employed for direct observations using numerous technological advances to map the microphysical cloud structure and to study entrainment mixing. In fact, the numerical representation of mixing processes between a cloud and the surrounding air has been a key issue in model parameterizations for decades. To better study these mixing processes as well as their impacts on cloud microphysical properties, the paper aims to improve exploration strategies that can be implemented by a fleet of RPA.</p> <p>Here, we use a large-eddy simulation (LES) of shallow maritime cumulus clouds to design adaptive sampling strategies. An implementation of the RPA flight simulator within high-frequency LES outputs (every 5 s) allows tracking individual clouds. A rosette sampling strategy is used to explore clouds of different sizes that are static in time and space. The adaptive sampling carried out by these explorations is optimized using one or two RPA and with or without Gaussian process regression (GPR) mapping by comparing the results obtained with those of a reference simulation, in particular the total liquid water content (LWC) and the LWC distribution in a horizontal cross section. Also, a sensitivity test of length scale for GPR mapping is performed. The results of exploring a static cloud are then extended to a dynamic case of a cloud evolving with time to assess the application of this exploration strategy to study the evolution of cloud heterogeneities. While a single RPA coupled to GPR mapping remains insufficient to accurately reconstruct individual clouds, two RPA with GPR mapping adequately characterize cloud heterogeneities on scales small enough to quantify the variability of important parameters such as total LWC.</p>

D. Close, C. Mcarthur

Andreeva Elena, Golovina Alla, Ratner Artem

This paper identifies the structure of the energy balance in the world and in individual countries was analyzed, trends and factors in the development of alternative types of energy carriers. The impact of their development on the volume and structure of international energy trade is substantiated. Its development prospects are presented for developed countries that are leaders in the development of alternative energy sources, and for developing countries for which the price factor is more important. Prospects of development of Russian energy exports in conditions of increasing importance of alternative types of energy carriers in the world economy and international trade are considered.

Etahisoa

This study investigates the causal relationship between import-export and economic growth in Madagascar by applying Johansen co-integration test and VAR causality model for annual time series data over the period 1975-2017. Based on the findings, import and export can lead to growth of the Malagasy economy. The test of co-integration indicated that there is absence of long run relationship between the variables. According to VAR causality mode, import and export have a unidirectional short run causal effect on economic growth during the studied period. The government should review the planning of trade policies and promote export due to negative trade balance of the country.

Kashif Saeed, Areeba Khan

ABSTRACT Purpose- The purpose of this study is to provide a new obscured aspect of financial working capital in working capital management, and investigate the association between financial and operating working capital with business performance. This paper also examines the interacting effect of net cash flow on this relationship. The current study introduces a modification in cash conversion cycle (CCC) by taking concealed trade advance payments. Design/methodology/approach- This study employs fixed effect regression model, covering a sample of Automobile sector companies, listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for the period of fourteen years from 2005 to 2018. Secondary data is collected from companies’ financial annual reports, PSX website, and Balance sheet analysis of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The study is explanatory and deductive in nature. Financial working capital (FWC) and new measure of operating working capital (OWC) i.e. modified cash conversion cycle (mCCC) is introduced & empirically tested with 252 firm-year observations. Findings- The regression results shows, a convex association between OWC & FWC, with business performance, in dearth of internal cash. However, after taking interacting effect of internal availability of cash, only FWC relation has become concave. The result also shows that mCCC provides a more realistic view of OWC. Research limitations/implications- This study has considered, concealed trade prepayments only, further research could include other components in mCCC. Moreover micro, macro factors and status of the economy such as depression or boom may also affect the results of the research. The findings suggest that managers should separately deal operating & financial working capital. Firms’ performance can be enhanced, if Finance Manager Take account internal cash of the firm. In case of deficiency (sufficiency) of it, he should work to decrease (increase) the investment amount in operating working capital (financial working capital). Overall, the results will be helpful to the financial experts and business practitioner in analyzing, and utilization of their resources. Originality/value- This study adds a new dimension in working capital by separating it into operating and financial working capital.  The study also offers insights into the new knowledge of extension in CCC, role of concealed advance payments and internal cash flow, for class teachers and business practitioners. It will also describe the new avenues for further research in this field.    Key Words:  Financial working capital, Operating working capital, Trade advanced payments and modified cash conversion cycle (mCCC).