Stefano Blando, Giorgio Fagiolo, Daniele Giachini
et al.
Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular Multi-VeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models.
Maryam Mirhashemi, Ali Shahnazari, Alireza Zarei Ghorkhodi
Extended Abstract
Background: A broad understanding of the dimensions and elements of integrated management is necessary to achieve the effective management of water resources. According to the report of the Technical Committee of the Global Water Partnership, integrated management of water resources is a process that contributes to the protection, development, and coordinated exploitation of land water resources and other related resources to maximize economic and social well-being in an equitable manner without jeopardizing the stability of vital ecosystems. Achieving this goal requires providing the necessary tools to create the necessary infrastructure for the correct implementation of integrated management of water resources and achieving sustainable development goals. In this regard, the current research was conducted to identify the tools required for the integrated management of water resources to influence sustainable development.
Methods: In the current descriptive-analytical research, information was collected through library studies and distribution of questionnaires. At first, the comprehensive concept of integrated management of water resources was chosen by reviewing different and varied international views and the results of world water meetings and conferences. Then, the principles, structure, challenges, and goals of integrated water resources management and the relationship with sustainable development were also examined by referring to international sources, such as World Bank reports, FAO documents and meetings, United Nations Development Program, documents related to the perspectives of the Technical Committee of the Global Water Partnership Program, documents of the United Nations Global Water Assessment Program, the United Nations 2030 document and also approved upstream documents, the water management of the country (including the macro water policies, the eighteen water policies of the country, the twenty-year vision document in the water sector, and the fourth development plan, documents and reports related to national and international conferences focusing on the integrated management of water resources and sustainable development, as well as the studies of researchers. To identify the tools needed for the integrated resource management approach to facilitate the sustainable development process, the effectiveness of four criteria, including 1) water resource protection and exploitation criteria, 2) policy making, 3) social, and 4) economic, on the implementation of the integrated water resources management approach in the Tajen catchment basin was evaluated by distributing 40 questionnaires among professors and students of the water engineering department at Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources. The questionnaire of the water engineering department of Sari University of Agricultural Sciences was validated after making corrections, and the final version was completed for distribution. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The questionnaire was compiled in such a way that there were 13 items and 5 subcategories for each component based on the Likert scale with numerical scores including very low (1), low (2), medium (3), high (4), and very high (5). The Cronbach's alpha obtained for the prepared questionnaires was equal to 0.891, which indicates the very good reliability of the prepared questionnaires. Finally, the effectiveness of each of these components in the implementation of the integrated water resources management approach was determined based on percentage by using the ratio of the total scores of each component to the number of distributed questionnaires.
Results: Based on the evaluations, the component of protection and exploitation of water resources had the most effectiveness (60.64%) on the implementation of integrated management of water resources in the Tajen catchment basin. On the other hand, policy levers had the second priority (40.52%) of effectiveness, and socioeconomic sectors had the third (52.40%) and fourth (43.30%) priorities, respectively. According to the above-mentioned results, it can be realized that in the current situation and the water crisis, the protection and exploitation of water resources is one of the basic pillars of achieving integrated management of water resources and ease in achieving sustainable development in the region. On the other hand, the impact of other components cannot be ignored because the successful implementation of an integrated approach to water resources and achieving sustainable development depends on comprehensive attention to all managerial, economic, social, and environmental sectors. This is because these tools are complementary to each other and the disruption in the availability of each of them leads to limitations in achieving the goals and perspectives of sustainable development in a region. This also requires the creation of necessary infrastructure in different sectors.
Conclusion: Factors such as population growth, economic development, and climate change have adversely affected the water resources of the Tajen catchment basin. Since goals such as sustainable water supply, ensuring public health, wastewater treatment, irrigation and drainage plans, and watershed protection cannot be properly implemented by taking temporary measures, the integrated management of water resources will ensure the continuous implementation of these goals. In general and according to the studies conducted in the current research, integrated management of water resources and sustainable development in the Tajen watershed and other areas are two inseparable components for the continued survival of a region. Therefore, providing the necessary infrastructure for this matter should be considered the main pillar of watershed management planning. This will not be possible except with the participation and coordination of all bodies, organizations, stakeholders, and users of water resources. The lack of a cooperative perspective is one of the biggest challenges in managing water resources and, consequently, achieving sustainable development. Therefore, the expansion of the participatory management approach in all dimensions related to water resources and achieving the goals of sustainable development can improve the current conditions and guarantee favorable future conditions to some extent.
River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)
In this paper investigations by the same authors on environmental issues concerning the control of the pollution produced by human activities have been extended to include costs related to environmental interventions. The proposed model consists of a spatially structured dynamic economic growth model which takes into account the level of pollution induced by production, a possible taxation based on the amount of produced pollution, and possible environmental interventions. It has been analyzed an optimal harvesting control problem with an objective function composed of four terms, namely the intertemporal utility of the decision maker, the space-time average of the level of pollution in the habitat, the disutility due to the imposition of taxation and the cost of environmental interventions. A specific novelty in the model proposed here is the localization of the possible interventions to a subregion of the whole habitat. Computational experiments have been carried out to exemplify the outcomes of the proposed model.
Inês Almeida, Carlos Cardoso Ferreira, Luís Silveira
In approximately twenty years of research on creative tourism, the relevance of including residents in the creative tourism experience has been mentioned but not investigated in depth. This paper seeks to identify forms of resident integration in creative tourism contexts through a semi-systematic literature review and to determine how this inclusion is explored in local accommodation units with artist residencies in the Central region of Portugal. Following a qualitative case-study-based approach, semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives of three accommodation units. The findings suggest four main formats of resident participation: (i) as experience providers, (ii) as consumers, and (iii) as responsible/consulted parties during the planning and development process(es) of the creative destination or product; and (iv) a more hybrid format in accommodation units with artist residencies, in which the resident is simultaneously a supplier and a consumer of the experience. The empirical results also suggest that this fourth integration format takes place mainly through specific programs for the local community and activities not limited to tourists. In the three cases, the dynamics with residents appear to generate several benefits in terms of economic growth, infrastructure and service development and, primarily, social sustainability. Also, the experience of tourists and artists in the residency is enhanced by contact with the local community. The findings of the study indicate that entities with attributes comparable to those under examination should utilize initiatives and partnerships promoted by their respective municipalities to reinforce collaboration between artist residencies and local communities.
Abstract: The rising global temperatures caused by climate change significantly impact energy consumption and electricity generation. Fluctuating temperatures and frequent extreme weather events disrupt energy production and consumption patterns. Addressing these challenges has become a priority, prompting governments, industries, and societies to pursue sustainable development and embrace eco-friendly economies. This strategy aims to decouple economic growth from environmental harm, ensuring a sustainable future for generations. Understanding the link between climate change, energy resources, and sustainable development is crucial. Techno-economic analysis provides a framework for evaluating energy-related projects and policies, guiding decision-makers toward sustainable solutions. A case study highlights the interaction between hydroponic unit energy needs, electricity pricing from wind farms, and product sales prices. Findings suggest that smaller 2-megawatt investments are more efficient and adaptable than larger 18-megawatt projects, proving economically viable and technologically flexible. However, such investments must also consider their social and environmental impacts on local communities. Sustainable development seeks to ensure that progress benefits all stakeholders while protecting the environment. Achieving this requires collaboration among governments, businesses, researchers, and individuals. By fostering innovation, adopting eco-friendly practices, and creating supportive policies, society can transition to a green economy, mitigating climate change and promoting a sustainable, resilient future.
Muhammad Rabiul Islam Liton, A.H.M. Shaiadul Kabir Hridoy
La ley de Engel es una de las relaciones más duraderas en economía en lo que se refiere al gasto en alimentos de los hogares. Según esta ley, cuando aumentan los ingresos familiares, disminuye la proporción del gasto en alimentación, a pesar de que aumente el importe real de dicho gasto. Fue un tema de investigación dimensional durante la primera etapa del desarrollo de la ley y se convierte en una ley básica en la economía del comportamiento. Sin embargo, en el siglo XXI hay muchas cosas incluidas en el paquete de consumo que no existían en la época de Engel, como los automóviles, los seguros médicos, los teléfonos móviles, etc. Por lo tanto, después de más de 150 años, los economistas y los responsables políticos prestan una atención incansable a la aplicabilidad y relevancia de la ley en diferentes aspectos económicos. Por lo tanto, el estudio tiene como objetivo investigar la relevancia de la Ley en Tangail Sadar Upazial de Bangladesh. Para llevar a cabo el estudio, los datos necesarios se recogen de Tangail Sadar Upazial siguiendo la técnica de muestreo en varias etapas. Después de analizar los datos, se revela que la Ley de Engel es aplicable en el área de estudio. Por lo tanto, el estudio sugiere a las autoridades respectivas que tomen más iniciativas para los programas de mejora de los ingresos para que la gente pueda gastar más en inversiones no alimentarias.
Economics as a science, Economic history and conditions
Constantinos Chamzas, Caelan Garrett, Balakumar Sundaralingam
et al.
Recent work has shown that complex manipulation skills, such as pushing or pouring, can be learned through state-of-the-art learning based techniques, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, these methods often have high sample-complexity, are susceptible to domain changes, and produce unsafe motions that a robot should not perform. On the other hand, purely geometric model-based planning can produce complex behaviors that satisfy all the geometric constraints of the robot but might not be dynamically feasible for a given environment. In this work, we leverage a geometric model-based planner to build a mixture of path-policies on which a task-specific meta-policy can be learned to complete the task. In our results, we demonstrate that a successful meta-policy can be learned to push a door, while requiring little data and being robust to model uncertainty of the environment. We tested our method on a 7-DOF Franka-Emika Robot pushing a cabinet door in simulation.
Abstract The application of artificial intelligence (AI) across firms and industries warrants a line of research focused on determining its overall effect on economic variables. As a general-purpose technology (GPT), for example, AI helps in the production, marketing, and customer acquisition of firms, increasing their productivity and consumer reach. Aside from these, other effects of AI include enhanced quality of services, improved work accuracy and efficiency, and increased customer satisfaction. Hence, this study aims to gauge the impact of AI on the economy, specifically on long-run economic growth. This study conjectures a positive relationship between AI and economic growth. To test this hypothesis, this study makes use of a panel dataset of countries from 1970 to 2019, and the number of AI patents as a measure of AI. A text search query is performed to distinguish AI patents from other types of innovations in a public database. Employing fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation, this paper finds a positive relationship between AI and economic growth, which is higher than the effect of the total population of patents on growth. Furthermore, other results indicate that AI’s influence on growth is more robust among advanced economies, and more evident towards the latter periods of the dataset.
Economic growth, development, planning, Economics as a science
It is crucial for the advancement of political economics and innovation economics to examine the relationship between income inequality and green innovation (GI). Using the panel fixed effect model, this study investigates the influence of income inequality on GI across 97 countries from 1991 to 2018 and demonstrates a significant non-linear association between the two. The empirical data exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship, suggesting that there is an optimal degree of income inequality that optimizes GI output, and the inflection point of our overall sample is at a Gini coefficient of 0.366. Additionally, we choose a set of robustness tests to validate the results by substituting explained variables, adding omitted variables, and employing the difference and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the non-linear patterns vary among samples, with the U-shape relationship being more significant in countries with lower income, higher corruption, and weaker government effectiveness. Our findings provide government decision-makers with a crucial reference for maximizing the importance of income distribution in fostering GI and achieving sustainable development.
First published online 24 August 2023
Reflecting on water and heritage as a system linking nature and culture raises challenges and opportunities for both water and heritage management. This case study explores what integrating water and heritage management means for Mantua and Sabbioneta, two cities in Northern Italy listed by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site because of artistic, architectural and urban values associated with the Renaissance. It considers how World Heritage management recalls water-based visions, interactions between heritage institutions and water institutions and the role of water in innovative heritage projects promoting local communities’ involvement and challenging partnerships. It argues that embedding water and heritage relationships for sustainable development could be recognized as an opportunity for the Mantua and Sabbionetta World Heritage Site to integrate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 8 with goals 4, 12, 15 and 17.
Width-based planning has shown promising results on Atari 2600 games using pixel input, while using substantially fewer environment interactions than reinforcement learning. Recent width-based approaches have computed feature vectors for each screen using a hand designed feature set or a variational autoencoder trained on game screens (VAE-IW), and prune screens that do not have novel features during the search. We propose Olive (Online-VAE-IW), which updates the VAE features online using active learning to maximize the utility of screens observed during planning. Experimental results in 55 Atari games demonstrate that it outperforms Rollout-IW by 42-to-11 and VAE-IW by 32-to-20. Moreover, Olive outperforms existing work based on policy-learning ($π$-IW, DQN) trained with 100x training budget by 30-to-22 and 31-to-17, and a state of the art data-efficient reinforcement learning (EfficientZero) trained with the same training budget and ran with 1.8x planning budget by 18-to-7 in Atari 100k benchmark, with no policy learning at all. The source code is available at github.com/ibm/atari-active-learning .
Azad Khanzadi, Sepideh Manouchehritabar, Sahar Tighi
Ensuring the social welfare of societies is closely related to the type and manner in which governments use fiscal policies. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of fiscaldecentralization (income and expenditure) on social welfare. For this purpose, based on 30 provinces of Iran data’s during the 2005-2017 period, first the variables affecting welfare have been identified and the social welfare index for the provinces has been calculated, then the effects of decentralization have been investigated using the generalized method of movements for Income and expenses on the welfare index. The results of the model estimations, indicate a direct relationship between income and expenditure decentralization with social welfare, but with further increase in decentralization, this relationship has become negative and this indicates the instability of the fiscal situation in improving social welfare and has led to further increase in decentralization, this relationship becomes negative. Therefore, increasing decentralization and delegating more development projects to the provinces does not increase welfare, but also, first the necessary infrastructure for delegating affairs to the provinces, the power of self-government of the provinces should be evaluated, then with independence in Finance, we should expect the realization and improvement of social welfare in the provinces.
TE (TE) can potentially enhance the economic output of technological innovation, and thus promote sustainable economic growth (SEG). However, the TE-SEG relationship has been mainly analyzed subjectively through empirical analysis. This paper puts forward a novel strategy that automatically predict and validate the promoting effect of TE on SEG. Firstly, a multi-level analytical model of TE was constructed to automatically select the optimal sample subset from the original data, and eliminate noise and redundant data. Next, a multivariate linear regression model was adopted to analyze the TG-SEG relationship intelligently and intuitively. Finally, the proposed strategy was verified through experiments on the SEG data collected from 31 Chinese cities. The experimental results confirm that our strategy can effectively and reliably reflect the promoting effect of TE on SEG.
In this study, the method of behavioral patterns map is used to investigate the effect of designed environment on individuals, success and impact of design in guiding behavior and providing appropriate opportunities for various behaviors. In this field of study, collected data on behavioral patterns is been considered under three categories; essential, recreational, and social. The purpose of this study is direct observation of presence in space in order to complete the collected data, methods efficiency achievement and techniques ofquantitative tests. Observation repeat records is essential to gain reliability of records. Because nonverbal behavior observation is based on our observation, camera and events location map are used together and behavioral pattern record is specified with location. At first, the target fabric and its general features is considered and then after an overview on neighborhood is centers, center of Sultan Mir Ahmad neighborhood elected to study. To test the hypotheses a combination of software techniques with field observations are selected. Finally through the proposed steps, the relationship between behavior and urban spaces are recognized. The results show that the relationship between behavior and environment may be considered in assessments of space quality. The analysis of visual observations of users behavior in a space led to an appropriate pattern which could be effective on improvement of physical environment quality and the human presence.
Economic growth, development, planning, Urban groups. The city. Urban sociology
Adhisty Mohammad Khariza, Arintoko Arintoko, Suprapto Suprapto
Small-medium enterprises (SMEs) are the main pillar of the Indonesian economy. Based on 2016’s Economic Census, most businesses in Indonesia are SMEs, while SMEs absorb the majority of the workforce. The empowerment of SMEs is one way to improve the economy. To empower the SMEs sector, the Indonesian government launched the Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) since 2007. The lasts policy is the provision of the mild interest rate for KUR since 2016. The hope is that with a mild interest rate, SMEs can get affordable financing access so they can be the driving force of the economy. However, credit demand is not only influenced by interest rate but other macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product and inflation. Also, this study will look at how development disparities between the West Indonesia Region and East Indonesia Region affect credit demand. This research is intended to see the effect of macroeconomic factors on Small-medium enterprises loans. Source of data is taken from Indonesia Badan Pusat Statistik. Panel data use 2011-2018 time-series data and 33 provinces cross-section data are used to investigate the relationship of SMEs’ Loans with these macroeconomic factors. The result show that Interest Rate, GRDP, and Inflation, effect on SMEs Loans in a respectively different manner. However, the development disparities between West Indonesia Region and East Indonesia Region has no significant effect on SMEs’ loans. The study concludes that macroeconomic activities are important indicators not only the interest rate. So, the government should not only focus on interest rate policy but also other macroeconomic factors.
Keyword: Macroeconomic Factors, SMEs’ Loan, Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR), Panel Data
Economic growth, development, planning, Regional economics. Space in economics
European Union (EU) is a supra-ideological construct in permanent change. Changing times bring the European External Action Service (EEAS) to its cultural strategy. EU external cultural strategy with the complexity of political and social realities defines the two main steps followed in this study: a) EU intercultural strategy analysis, and b) the role and the place of EU Delegations (EU Dels) and the European Union National Institutes for Culture (EUNIC). The basis of the analysis is the qualitative approach. It analyses various institutional manifestations of power and status discrepancies in the EU on a macro and micro institutional level. How does the EU manage to communicate its values and identity in a context of potential cultural and ideological differences? Does ”wanting to understand the other” seem neglected, whereas ”wanting to get understood“ seems to have become an EU intercultural attitude driver? The aim of this paper is to identify the process and relevance of EU cultural synergies and its external intercultural image through various involved actors.
Economic growth, development, planning, Economics as a science
The law of proportionate growth simply states that the time dependent change of a quantity $x$ is proportional to $x$. Its applicability to a wide range of dynamic phenomena is based on various assumptions for the proportionality factor, which can be random or deterministic, constant or time dependent. Further, the dynamics can be combined with additional additive growth terms, which can be constants, aggregated quantities, or interaction terms. This allows to extent the core dynamics into an agent-based modeling framework with vast applications in social and economic systems. The paper adopts this overarching perspective to discuss phenomena as diverse as saturated growth, competition, stochastic growth, investments in random environments, wealth redistribution, opinion dynamics and the wisdom of crowds, reputation dynamics, knowledge growth, and the combination with network dynamics.