We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic institutions are anchored to human cognitive scarcity. Three mechanisms formalize this channel. First, a displacement spiral with competing reinstatement effects: each firm's rational decision to substitute AI for labor reduces aggregate labor income, which reduces aggregate demand, accelerating further AI adoption. We derive conditions on the AI capability growth rate, diffusion speed, and reinstatement rate under which the net feedback is self-limiting versus explosive. Second, Ghost GDP: when AI-generated output substitutes for labor-generated output, monetary velocity declines monotonically in the labor share absent compensating transfers, creating a wedge between measured output and consumption-relevant income. Third, intermediation collapse: AI agents that reduce information frictions compress intermediary margins toward pure logistics costs, triggering repricing across SaaS, payments, consulting, insurance, and financial advisory. Because top-quintile earners drive 47--65\% of U.S.\ consumption and face the highest AI exposure, the transmission into private credit (\$2.5 trillion globally) and mortgage markets (\$13 trillion) is disproportionate. We derive eleven testable predictions with explicit falsification conditions. Calibrated simulations disciplined by FRED time series and BLS occupation-level data quantify conditions under which stable adjustment transitions to explosive crisis.
Le «travail soutenable» n’a pas de définition claire. Ses diverses dimensions ont jusqu’à présent été étudiées par des courants de la recherche différents, alors que les implications politiques des appels en faveur d’un «travail soutenable» ont suscité peu d’intérêt. Ce dossier spécial montre qu’il est nécessaire d’adopter une approche intégrant ces différents courants pour appréhender les conflits politiques inhérents au concept, ainsi que ses différentes dimensions et leur potentiel. Cette introduction présente l’éclairage que les divers contributeurs au dossier apportent sur ces dimensions et leur nature politique.
Christopher Chiu, Simpson Zhang, Mihaela van der Schaar
As artificial intelligence (AI) agents are deployed across economic domains, understanding their strategic behavior and market-level impact becomes critical. This paper puts forward a groundbreaking new framework that is the first to capture the real-world economic forces that shape agentic labor markets: adverse selection, moral hazard, and reputation dynamics. Our framework encapsulates three core capabilities that successful LLM-agents will need: \textbf{metacognition} (accurate self-assessment of skills), \textbf{competitive awareness} (modeling rivals and market dynamics), and \textbf{long-horizon strategic planning}. We illustrate our framework through a tractable simulated gig economy where agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) compete for jobs, develop skills, and adapt their strategies under competitive pressure. Our simulations illustrate how LLM agents explicitly prompted with reasoning capabilities learn to strategically self-improve and demonstrate superior adaptability to changing market conditions. At the market level, our simulations reproduce classic macroeconomic phenomena found in human labor markets, while controlled experiments reveal potential AI-driven economic trends, such as rapid monopolization and systemic price deflation. This work provides a foundation to further explore the economic properties of AI-driven labour markets, and a conceptual framework to study the strategic reasoning capabilities in agents competing in the emerging economy.
We address the problem of optimal joint scheduling of deferrable and nondeferrable demand involving colocated stochastic supply. Deferrable demand can be delayed within its service deadline, whereas nondeferrable demand must be scheduled immediately. Under a finite-horizon stochastic dynamic programming formulation, we show that the optimal scheduling policy is a ``procrastination policy'' that delays scheduling as much as possible and is characterized by three procrastination parameters. Exploiting the low-dimensional parameterization of the optimal policy, we propose a Procrastination Threshold Reinforcement Learning algorithm. Numerical experiments based on real-world test data confirm that the threshold-learning algorithm closely approximates the optimal policy and outperforms standard benchmarks.
The article describes a study of the labor market of creative industries in the Tomsk Region in order to substantiate its consideration as a key factor in the development of the local creative industries in the region. The authors systematized the existing problems to improve the selection and hiring of creative specialists. They analyzed various terminological approaches of the concepts of creative industries, human capital, and labor market in terminological interrelation. The supply and demand in the labor market of creative demonstrated its importance for the development of creative industries in the Tomsk Region. The analysis also involved quality of education and professional training in the field, which revealed some potential problems related to non-compliance with labor market requirements. Job interviews should include creative tests, and assignments, team work, and information campaigns about career opportunities. As the creative sector keeps growing, studying the current trends in the labor market of creative industries has become important in the context of economic growth and its impact on the regional development. The research opens up new prospects for regional studies in the sphere of creative labor market and possesses practical application.
Antitrust and market regulation, rather than being “flip sides of the same coin,” populate a spectrum that ranges from a truly laissez faire economic system at one end to a command economy at the other. Competition policy and regulation have different strengths and will thus be preferred in different settings, as well as at differ- ent times in the chronology of industry growth. While competition policy might be favoured early in the growth of an industry, when the efficient outcomes are unknown and unknowable, regulation is a preferred approach when the industry is mature, inno- vation has slowed, and gains come from operational efficiencies rather than techno- logical changes. Their different strengths may also emerge independent of chronology: competition policy is a preferred market oversight mechanism when efficient outcomes are consistent with larger social, political, environmental – etc. – goals. Where efficient outcomes deviate from those, however, market regulation is the better alternative. The reality of the regulation-competition interface belies the binary of these as alter- native approaches to market oversight. Competition policy may be more or less regu- latory in nature and enforcers take on regulation-like approaches when their goals diverge from competitive equilibria. Competitive equilibria in labour markets are unlikely to produce worker protec- tions that serve broader social goals. This is because labour markets reflect durable monopsony power, with workers locked into employment relationships and unable to bargain effectively. The resulting equilibrium will see firms that are both employ- ers and producers favouring efficiencies in consumer markets, where they are more likely to encounter competition, over labour markets, to the detriment of workers. Competition policy gives way to regulation as prohibitions on no-compete covenants and exemptions for labour organization intrude on marketplace competition1. In a market of gig economy platforms, characterized by diffuse buyers, diffuse sellers, and a consolidated intermediary – the platform – which is protected by entry barriers including network effects and capital intensiveness, the competitive equilibrium will see surplus wealth gained by the platform. This outcome does not prevent substantial social benefits, including those realized by workers and consumers on the platform. For example, evidence suggests that the US-based gig platform Uber brought eco- nomic opportunity to developing world locations as underemployed workers became independent businesspersons and consumers had cheaper and safer means of trans- port. Regulating to protect consumers (safety regulation) and workers (minimum earnings regulation) can protect non-competition social goals including safety and equity of wealth distribution2. The market for artificial intelligence technologies is nascent, fast developing, and far from fully understood. This is also a market in which innovation is crucial, and comprehensive regulation would undermine the experimental process by which tech- nologies are developed. But the unrestricted growth of this market presents risks that demand interventions. Regulation can establish parameters within which competition might flourish, through forbidding edge-case applications, encouraging standardiza- tion of technologies, and monitoring markets to identify enduring inequities early. Regulation and competition policy populate a spectrum of market oversight options, at the extremes operating individually and, in the heartland, playing a complemen- tary role. As policymakers and enforcers continue to emphasize goals that competitive equilibria cannot achieve, regulation will play an increasingly important role.
Kenan Wood, Maurice Herlihy, Hammurabi Mendes
et al.
An automated market maker (AMM) is a state machine that manages pools of assets, allowing parties to buy and sell those assets according to a fixed mathematical formula. AMMs are typically implemented as smart contracts on blockchains, and its prices are kept in line with the overall market price by arbitrage: if the AMM undervalues an asset with respect to the market, an "arbitrageur" can make a risk-free profit by buying just enough of that asset to bring the AMM's price back in line with the market. AMMs, however, are not designed for assets that expire: that is, assets that cannot be produced or resold after a specified date. As assets approach expiration, arbitrage may not be able to reconcile supply and demand, and the liquidity providers that funded the AMM may have excessive exposure to risk due to rapid price variations. This paper formally describes the design of a decentralized exchange (DEX) for assets that expire, combining aspects of AMMs and limit-order books. We ensure liveness and market clearance, providing mechanisms for liquidity providers to control their exposure to risk and adjust prices dynamically in response to situations where arbitrage may fail.
Studiestøtte fra Lånekassen er et viktig velferdsgode som skal bidra til å jevne ut sosiale og økonomiske forskjeller i utdanningssystemet. Til tross for at det blir stadig flere studenter med innvandrerbakgrunn i høyere utdanning, vet vi lite om hvordan denne studentgruppen benytter seg av studiestøtten. Ved hjelp av registerdata over alle studenter 20–29 år i høyere utdanning høsten 2018, undersøker vi mottak av studiestøtte blant studenter med innvandrerbakgrunn. Vi finner at studenter med innvandrerbakgrunn bruker studiestøtten i mindre grad enn øvrige studenter, og at de som mottar støtte også mottar lavere beløp.
One of the main problems the world is currently dealing with is unemployment. The characteristics of the labor market in the Republic of Serbia are long-term high unemployment rate, unfavorable qualification structure, high youth unemployment rate, regionally unequally distributed unemployment, and insufficient measures of active state employment policy. These characteristics point to complex issues that can be characterized as a type of labor market disparity. The problem is that the existing labor supply is finding it increasingly difficult to adapt to the changing demand for labor, which is associated with growing competition in the global market and accelerated technological change. The fact that Serbia's unemployment rates are higher than those of the EU's member states is particularly significant given that the Republic of Serbia's employment policy's primary objectives are the establishment of an effective, stable, and sustainable employment growth trend and the harmonization of employment policy and labor market institutions with the EU acquis. Insufficient use of human resources of a country has a direct impact on its economy and national income, which directly has negative repercussions on the living standards of the population and increasing poverty.
The main goal of a sequential two-stage electricity market -- e.g., day-ahead and real-time markets -- is to operate efficiently. However, the price difference across stages due to inadequate competition and unforeseen circumstances leads to undesirable price manipulation. To mitigate this, some Independent System Operators (ISOs) proposed system-level market power mitigation (MPM) policies in addition to existing local policies. These policies aim to substitute noncompetitive bids with a default bid based on estimated generator costs. However, these policies may lead to unintended consequences when implemented without accounting for the conflicting interest of participants. In this paper, we model the competition between generators (bidding supply functions) and loads (bidding quantity) in a two-stage market with a stage-wise MPM policy. An equilibrium analysis shows that a real-time MPM policy leads to equilibrium loss, meaning no stable market outcome (Nash equilibrium) exists. A day-ahead MPM policy, besides, leads to a Stackelberg-Nash game with loads acting as leaders and generators as followers. In this setting, loads become winners, i.e., their aggregate payment is always less than competitive payments. Moreover, comparison with standard market equilibrium highlights that markets are better off without such policies. Finally, numerical studies highlight the impact of heterogeneity and load size on market equilibrium.
The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a mismatch between power supply and demand. The innovative dynamic pricing approach may significantly contribute to mitigating that critical problem by taking advantage of the flexibility offered by the demand side. At its core, this idea consists in providing the consumer with a price signal which is evolving over time, in order to influence its consumption. This novel approach involves a challenging decision-making problem that can be summarised as follows: how to determine a price signal maximising the synchronisation between power supply and demand under the constraints of maintaining the producer/retailer's profitability and benefiting the final consumer at the same time? As a contribution, this research work presents a detailed formalisation of this particular decision-making problem. Moreover, the paper discusses the diverse algorithmic components required to efficiently design a dynamic pricing policy: different forecasting models together with an accurate statistical modelling of the demand response to dynamic prices.
Este artigo discute a relação entre o projeto educacional proposto pela Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) e a contrarreforma do ensino médio e tem como fio condutor a análise dos seguintes pontos: 1) a contrarreforma do ensino médio; 2) a disputa pelos sentidos discursivos da BNCC; 3) as estratégias para a implementação da BNCC como programa da CNI. Os resultados revelam que o conteúdo da contrarreforma do ensino médio possui forte vinculação com as reivindicações da CNI para a política educacional brasileira.
Palavras-chave: Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI); Base comum curricular (BNCC); Reforma do Ensino Médio.
Special aspects of education, Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand
Turakul R. Rizokulov, Sharif Yu. Akramov, Furkad Sh. Akramov
<p>In article development of migration processes in economy of Tajikistan in the context of their influence on a condition of national labor market is considered. Regularities of development of migration in world economy are proved, the reasons of emigration of the population to other countries are reasoned. Analyzed key indicators of labor market in economy of Tajikistan. In particular: state and dynamics of human resources, employment, unused part of labor, natural and migration increase. The nature of the reasons of migration and their consequence in national labor market of Tajikistan are defined. The coefficient of migration compensation reflecting the nature of influence of migration on the mechanism of supply and demand in the Tajik labor market is calculated.</p>
Fruto de uma rica pesquisa, a obra traz análise e depoimentos dos sujeitos do processo de expansão do MST no Nordeste, bem como o cenário político vivenciado pelo país em cada contexto histórico retratado. Isto é precedido por uma exposição das condições históricas da questão agrária no Brasil: desde a forma que se deu a abolição do trabalho escravizado, a particularidade da apropriação privada da terra no século XIX, as ideias de reforma trazidas à baila e suas implicações contemporaneamente. Com o terreno assim preparado, a autora parte para apresentação das informações obtidas na sua pesquisa e, na análise delas, que envolvem as distintas gerações do Movimento e suas incursões no Nordeste.
Special aspects of education, Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand
This paper studies premiums got by winning bidders in default supply auctions, and speculation and hedging activities in power derivatives markets in dates near auctions. Data includes fifty-six auction prices from 2007 to 2013, those of CESUR in the Spanish OMEL electricity market, and those of Basic Generation Service auctions (PJM-BGS) in New Jersey's PJM market. Winning bidders got an average ex-post yearly forward premium of 7% (CESUR) and 38% (PJM-BGS). The premium using an index of futures prices is 1.08% (CESUR) and 24% (PJM-BGS). Ex-post forward premium is negatively related to the number of bidders and spot price volatility. In CESUR, hedging-driven trading in power derivatives markets predominates around auction dates, but in PJM-BGS, speculation-driven trading prevails.
Informality is an entrenched structural trait in emerging market economies, despite of the progress achieved in macroeconomic management. Informality determines the behavior of labour markets, financial access and the productivity of the overall economy. Therefore it influences the transmission of shocks and also of monetary policy. This paper develops a simple general equilibrium closed economy model with nominal rigidities, labor and financial frictions. Informality is captured by a dual labour market where the share of informal workers is endogenous. Only formal sector firms have access to financing, which is instrumental in their production process. Informality has a buffering effect on the propagation of demand and supply shocks to prices; the financial feature of the model exacerbates the impact of financial shocks in the formal sector while the informal sector is in principle unaffected. As a result informality dampens the impact of demand and financial shocks on wages and inflation but heighten the impact of technology shocks. Informality also increases the sacrifice ratio of monetary policy actions. From a Central Bank perspective, the results imply that the presence of an informal sector mitigates inflation volatility for some type of shocks but makes monetary policy less effective.
Purpose of the study. Analysis of inflationary factors associated with the labor market and employment is usually limited to the study of the relationship between the consumer price index and the Phillips curve. Therefore, the study examines the potential impact of a wider range of labor and employment market indicators on inflationary processes in the Russian economy. The purpose of the paper is to identify and assess the links between unemployment, on the one hand, and indicators of the labor market, employment, and incomes of the population in the national economy of Russia.Materials and methods. The study used the author’s hypothesis about the possibility of influ-encing inflation not only by unemployment, but also by other indicators of the labor market, such as the share of informal employment or the average working hours per week. The research also studied the impact of the labor market not only on the consumer price index, but also on the basic consumer price index (cleared of the influence of seasonal and administrative factors). The monthly data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for 2016-2020 were used in Russia as a whole. We useda standard apparatus for searching and measuring cause-and-effect relationships (ma-trices of paired correlation coefficients, regression analysis).Results. In the short term, the level of labor force participation and economic activity have a positive relationship with inflation, as they are even lower than the level that could cause inflationary pressure (according to the second order polynomial). In 2017-2018 inflation was positively influ-enced by the size of the nominal accrued wages and the average number of hours worked per week. The traditional impact of the population income and aggregate demand on inflation has manifested itself. But it was insignificant (up to 10 % of inflation variance). This effect occurs only in those years when there are no more powerful inflationary factors. Consequently, cost inflation was fairly limited. In the short term, in some years, there is also a certain positive relationship between the share of people employed in the informal sector and the consumer price index. The rise in the infla-tionary tax on businesses without market power is forcing the majority of workers to be hired infor-mally. In the long term, an increase in the level of labor force participation explains part of the vari-ance of the basic consumer price index (but not related to the general consumer price index). With an increase in economic activity and income, the population acquires a wider range of goods, prices for which are not seasonal and are not administratively regulated.Conclusion. In general, the factors of the labor market and the population’s income are not de-cisive for inflation in the Russian economy, but they explain some of the changes. In the future, it is possible to build more accurate models in which indicators such as the level of labor supply can take a certain place next to the main inflationary factors. The findings of the study can be used when mak-ing decisions in the field of labor market regulation in conjunction with monetary policy.