A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.
Aurelija Armoskaite, Ida Maria Bonnevie, Daniel Depellegrin
et al.
Effective ecosystem-based management strategies that prevent further degradation of the ecosystem state and negative impacts on societies are needed but require cross-disciplinary and complex understandings of social–ecological systems (SES). This study defines, evaluates, and operationalises the concept of social–ecological (SE) indicators using the butterfly model based on the DAPSI(W)R(M) framework, linking drivers, activities, pressures, state changes, impacts on human welfare, and responses as measures. A review of 148 indicators developed under the marine strategy framework directive (MSFD), including contributions from HELCOM, OSPAR, the European Environment Agency, and marine-relevant UN sustainable development goals (SDGs), was conducted. Indicators were assessed across four key dimensions: mapping along the DAPSI(W)R(M) cause-effect chain; indicator complexity; normative basis; and the relationship between the indicator and its indicandum. Based on the analysis and a literature study, an SE indicator definition was developed requiring SE indicators to be compound or explicitly connect the ecological and social dimensions. Only nine of the analysed indicators qualify as SE indicators by making traceable connexions across both dimensions of the butterfly model. Existing compound indices, such as the ocean health index (OHI) and its regional adaptation, the Baltic health index (BHI), illustrate how nested, goal-oriented indices can operationalise SE integration while also highlighting challenges related to transparency and aggregation due to their nested nature. Pathways for adapting existing non-SE indicators into SE indicators are outlined, drawing on ongoing work in the SEADITO project (2024–2027) that develops SE modelling tools for the European Digital Twin of the Ocean (EU DTO). To enable compound SE indicators and support implementation within emerging digital twins of the earth, such as the EU DTO, additional criteria for SE indicators are proposed, consisting of the addition of crosscutting interlinkages and digital readiness, respectively, in addition to existing criteria of measurability, sensitivity, specificity, scalability, transferability, and precision. By clarifying what makes an indicator SE and identifying concrete development pathways, this study advances the methodological foundation for integrating SES analysis into marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management in an era in which digital twins of the earth are accelerating the digital infrastructure for SES.
Introduction. Social and territorial inequality determines differences in the life prospects of Russian youth. Heterogeneous living conditions in large cities, small towns, and rural areas generate unequal starting opportunities, influencing the formation and implementation of life strategies. The aim of this study is to identify similarities and differences in the social characteristics of urban and rural youth, as reflected in their life dispositions and strategies.
Materials and Methods. This article analyzes data from a 2023 online survey conducted in the Belgorod Region among urban and rural youth (schoolchildren, students, and workers) aged 14 to 35 (n = 5,881). The sample was quota-based based on gender, age, settlement type, and area of residence. Participants were recruited using a hot recruitment technique. Data processing was performed using Vortex software, with the construction of linear and cross-tabulation tables (based on respondents' settlement types). The dependent variables were twelve life strategies (economic, political, career, matrimonial, social, migration, self-realization, etc.), operationalized through the categories of ‘‘life dispositions’’ and ‘‘life plans’’.
Results. Despite a general value consensus (homogeneity of life dispositions), the life plans of young people demonstrate a stable stratification. Young people in large cities (regional centers) outperform their peers in small towns and villages in terms of aspirations across all strategies studied: from financial practices and career ambitions to reproductive plans and readiness for complex forms of socio-political participation. The statistically significant convergence of life planning indicators among young people in small towns and rural communities suggests the formation of a single continuum of ‘‘peripherality’’. The main mechanisms blocking the realization of ambitions are a lack of resources and a subjectively lower assessment of the opportunities for achieving goals in their region.
Discussion and Conclusion. The settlement factor is a significant mechanism of stratification, reproducing inequality in the practical feasibility of life projects. The gap in the complexity and scale of planning between the center and the periphery creates the risk of further concentration of human capital in large cities and depopulation of smaller territories. The materials in this article may be of interest to state youth policy authorities at various levels, as well as to state and municipal administrations; youth organizations; and educational institutions.
Alinaira Angela de Castro e Souza, Cheyenne Yara dos Reis, Pietra Antonella De Costa
et al.
Introduction/Objective: Leprosy is a neglected disease that remains a major public health challenge in Brazil, with a substantial impact on socially vulnerable populations. Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment, advanced-stage cases still lead to hospitalizations and deaths. Understanding the regional distribution of these outcomes may reveal disparities in access to health services, contributing to the planning of more equitable interventions. This study aimed to analyze patterns of hospitalizations and in-hospital deaths due to leprosy in Brazil. Methodology: Observational, ecological, retrospective study based on secondary data from the SUS Hospital Information System (SIH/SUS), extracted from DATASUS. All individuals hospitalized for leprosy (ICD-10: A30) and its sequelae in Brazil between 2020 and 2024 were included. Variables analyzed included total number of hospitalizations, number of in-hospital deaths, and mortality rate, stratified by geographic macroregion (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Central-West). Data were organized into frequency tables, and mortality rate was calculated as the ratio between deaths and hospitalizations, expressed as a percentage. The Chi-Square test (χ²) was applied to evaluate the association between deaths and region, with a 5% significance level (p<0.05). Results: A total of 15,792 leprosy-related hospitalizations were analyzed between 2020 and 2024, with 321 deaths recorded, resulting in an overall mortality rate of 2.03%. The Northeast had the highest number of hospitalizations (6,036), followed by the Southeast (2,915), South (2,748), North (2,122), and Central-West (1,971). The highest mortality rates were observed in the South (2.84%) and Northeast (2.42%), while the lowest occurred in the Central-West (0.91%) and North (1.32%). The chi-square test indicated a statistically significant association between region and in-hospital deaths (χ²=31.27; p<0.001), suggesting regional inequality in leprosy-related outcomes. Conclusion: Findings reveal regional inequality in leprosy-related hospital outcomes in Brazil, with higher mortality in the South and Northeast. The statistical association between the distribution of deaths and macroregions points to potential differences in access to early diagnosis and quality of care.
Over the past 20 years, the extensive expansions of informal settlements in built-up districts of developing countries have emerged as a major topic of discussion in the field of urbanization. However, peri-urban land use conflicts have resulted from the regional government's lateness in improving informal settlements. Moreover, formal and informal actors in urban fringe land use conflicts have not been clearly identified by a number of authors, despite their exploration of the link between the two. The objective of this study is to identify formal and informal actors in peri-urban land use disputes and to present a comprehensive, cross-sectoral analysis of peri-urban land use conflicts. Key land use actors in the urban–rural outskirts of Mekelle City were participated in 37 semi-structured interviews, which were followed by 12 focus group discussions. Besides, stakeholders' analysis and snowball methods were also used to answer research questions. The findings showed that friends, family, neighbors, community organizations and their immediate networks are informal actors engaged in peri-urban land disputes. In addition, government institutions, officials and authorities that set laws and regulations were identified as formal actors.
As cities evolve and face complex challenges in growth and sustainability, balancing local autonomy with regional objectives is a critical aspect of urban planning. This chapter explores the Winnipeg Metropolitan Region (WMR) and its navigation of these dynamics through the lens of Winnipeg Plan 2050. The plan provides a strategic framework to address pressing challenges such as housing shortages, environmental sustainability, and infrastructure demands by fostering inter-municipal collaboration, policy alignment, and community engagement. Anchored in theoretical perspectives such as Polycentric Governance Theory, Network Governance Theory, and the Subsidiarity Principle, this chapter examines how Winnipeg’s planning processes integrate these paradigms to address growth, mobility, equity, and sustainability. By analyzing governance structures and planning strategies, this chapter contributes to the broader discourse on urban governance and offers valuable insights into harmonizing local and regional priorities to achieve inclusive and sustainable urban development.
In the rapid process of urbanization, urban agglomerations have become a key driving factor for regional development and spatial reorganization. The formation and development of urban agglomerations rely on communication between cities. However, the spatiotemporal characteristics of intercity travelers are not fully grasped throughout the entire trip chain. This study proposes a spatiotemporal analysis method for intercity travel in urban agglomerations by constructing origin-to-destination (OD) trip chains using smartphone data, with the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study. The study employed Cramer’s V and Spearman correlation coefficients for multivariate feature selection, identifying 12 key variables from an initial set of 20. Then, optimal cluster configuration was determined via silhouette analysis. Finally, the K-prototypes algorithm was applied to cluster 161,797 intercity trip chains across six transportation corridors in 2019 and 2021, facilitating a comparative spatiotemporal analysis of travel patterns. Results show the following: (1) Intercity travelers are predominantly males aged 19–35, with significantly higher weekday volumes; (2) Modal split exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity—the metro predominates in Beijing while road transport prevails elsewhere; (3) Departure hubs’ waiting times increased significantly in 2021 relative to 2019 baselines; (4) Increased metro mileage correlates positively with extended intra-city travel distances. The results substantially contribute to transportation planning, particularly in optimizing multimodal hub operations and infrastructure investment allocation.
Pasura Aungkulanon, Roberto Montemanni, Atiwat Nanphang
et al.
This study introduces a novel informatics framework for assessing regional sustainability by integrating Twin Mean-Variance Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis (TMV-TSDEA) with a desirability-based decision analytics system. The model evaluates both the efficiency and stability of economic and environmental performance across regions, supporting evidence-based policymaking and strategic planning. Applied to 16 Thai provinces, the framework incorporates a wide range of indicators—such as investment, population, tourism, industrial output, electricity use, forest coverage, and air quality. The twin mean-variance approach captures not only average efficiency but also the consistency of performance over time or under varying scenarios. A two-stage DEA structure models the transformation from economic inputs to environmental outcomes. To ensure comparability, all variables are normalized using desirability functions based on standardized statistical coding. The TMV-TSDEA framework generates composite performance scores that reveal clear disparities among regions. Provinces like Bangkok and Ayutthaya demonstrate a consistent high performance, while others show underperformance or variability requiring targeted policy action. Designed for integration with smart governance platforms, the framework provides a scalable and reproducible tool for regional benchmarking, resource allocation, and sustainability monitoring. By combining informatics principles with advanced analytics, TMV-TSDEA enhances transparency, supports decision-making, and offers a holistic foundation for sustainable regional development.
The rapid urbanization in developing countries has resulted in altered land-use patterns, surface energy imbalances, and heightened urban heat stress, exacerbating the urban heat island effect and vulnerability to heatwaves. The abandonment of agricultural lands, while a global challenge, presents cities with a unique opportunity to meet tree cover targets and improve resilience to these climatic challenges. Building on prior studies, this research employs the combined use of ENVI-met 4.4.6 and Ray-Man 3.1 simulation models to assess the efficacy of nature-based solutions in revegetating abandoned urban agricultural lands with the aim of enhancing outdoor thermal comfort. As a vital component of urban ecosystem services, thermal comfort, particularly through microclimate cooling, is essential for improving public health and livability in cities. This investigation focuses on the integration of broadleaf, evergreen, and edible woody species as bioclimatic interventions to mitigate urban heat stress. Simulation results showed that species such as <i>Quercus</i> spp. (broadleaf) and <i>Cupressus arizonica</i> (evergreen) substantially reduced the Mean Radiant Temperature (Tmrt) index by up to 26.76 °C, primarily due to their shading effects and large canopies. Combining these vegetation types with crops emerged as the most effective strategy to mitigate heat stress and optimize land-use. This study demonstrates how cities can incorporate nature-based solutions to adapt and mitigate the health risks posed by climate change while fostering resilience. These findings offer valuable knowledge for other developing countries facing similar challenges, highlighting the importance of revegetating abandoned urban agricultural lands for thermal comfort and ecosystem service provision, with the advantages of reducing mortality and morbidity during heatwaves. Consequently, these results should inform urban climate policies aimed at promoting resilience, public health, and ecological sustainability in a changing climate.