Hasil untuk "Regional economics. Space in economics"

Nikolay Gospodinov, Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Serena Ng

Variations in the low- and high-frequency components of temperature may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. Parametric and non-parametric estimates from three panels of data all find significant heterogeneity in the relative importance of the two components, but there is clear evidence in each panel of a common, slowly evolving low-frequency factor that is highly correlated with the low-frequency factor of economic activity. In regressions that quantify the output effects of the components, we find that one-way clustered standard errors often lead to size distortions, and that an additive fixed effect specification does not adequately control for common time effects. Using bootstrap inference to assess estimates from our preferred interactive fixed effect specification, we only find a marginally significant effect of the high-frequency component on growth in the U.S. panel. However, the effect of the low-frequency component is significant in the European and International panels, suggesting that the increase in the low-frequency temperature component over the post-1980 period is associated with a reduction in economic growth of approximately 1.3 percentage points. The findings are corroborated by time series estimation using data at the unit and national levels.

Ali Zeytoon-Nejad

This article expands Milton Friedman's spending matrix to analyse 'spending efficiency' and 'preference compatibility' across different economic systems against five key outcome criteria. By generalising Friedman's typology, it compares efficiency and freedom as systems shift from laissez-faire capitalism to communism, illustrating a gradual deterioration in their key outcomes. While government intervention is sometimes necessary to address market failures, its role should always be carefully limited to avoid inefficiency and misalignment with individual preferences. The insights may provide guidance for policymakers in designing economic systems and policies that promote both economic prosperity and personal liberty.

Lendy Banegas, Fredy Vides

This paper introduces a methodology for identifying and simulating financial and economic systems using stochastically structured reservoir computers (SSRCs). The framework combines structure-preserving embeddings with graph-informed coupling matrices to model inter-agent dynamics while enhancing interpretability. A constrained optimization scheme guarantees compliance with both stochastic and structural constraints. Two empirical case studies, a nonlinear stochastic dynamic model and regional inflation network dynamics, demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in capturing complex nonlinear patterns and enabling interpretable predictive analysis under uncertainty.

Dylan C. Terry-Doyle, Adam B. Barrett

The ever-approaching limits of the Earth's biosphere and the potentially catastrophic consequences caused by climate change have begun to call into question the endless growth of the economy. There is increasing interest in the prospects of zero economic growth from the degrowth and post-growth literature. In particular, the question arises as to whether a zero-growth trajectory in a capitalist system with interest-bearing debt can be economically stable. There have been several answers to this question using macroeconomic models; some find a zero-growth trajectory is stable, while other models show an economic breakdown. However, the capitalist system in a period of growth is not guaranteed to be stable. Hence, a more appropriate methodology is to compare the relative stability between a growth and zero-growth scenario on the same model. Such a question has not yet been answered at any disaggregated level. It's important to investigate the consequences of zero-growth on market share instability and concentration, bankruptcy rates, income distribution, and credit network risk. To answer such questions, we develop a macroeconomic agent-based model incorporating Minskyan financial dynamics. The growth and zero-growth scenarios are accomplished by changing an average productivity growth parameter for the firms in the model. The model results showed that real GDP growth rates were more stable in the zero-growth scenario, there were fewer economic crises, lower unemployment rates, a higher wage share of output for workers, and capital firm and bank market shares were relatively more stable. Some of the consequences of zero-growth were a higher rate of inflation than in the growth scenario, increased market concentration for both firms and banks, and a higher level of financial risk in the credit network.

Dmitriy Rodionov, Nikolay Dmitriev, Lianyin Li

This study examines the role of government subsidies and private sector lending in stimulating China's economic growth while assessing the prospects for expanding the social credit system. This study covers the period from 1990 to 2023 and is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The paper applies theoretical analysis, as well as correlation and regression methods, to assess the long-term impact of various types of subsidies on macroeconomic indicators. The article examines theoretical models describing the relationship between social subsidies and economic growth and analyzes government subsidy programs. Special attention is given to the analysis of the social credit system, which evaluates the behavior of citizens and organizations, encouraging compliance with laws and regulations to enhance social stability and predictability in economic agents' behavior. The findings demonstrate significant correlations between the volume of social subsidies and economic growth, indicating that social subsidies encourage household spending. However, the long-term effectiveness of subsidies in increasing productivity and innovation remains limited. In conclusion, it is noted that there is a need to improve the mechanisms for distributing subsidies and integrating the social credit system in order to achieve more effective economic growth, taking into account the need to maintain social stability in Chinese society.

Yuhki Hosoya

We consider a class of economic growth models that includes the classical Ramsey--Cass--Koopmans capital accumulation model and verify that, under several assumptions, the value function of the model is the unique viscosity solution to the Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation. Moreover, we discuss a solution method for these models using differential inclusion, where the subdifferential of the value function plays an important role. Next, we present an assumption under which the value function is a classical solution to the Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation, and show that many economic models satisfy this assumption. In particular, our result still holds in an economic growth model in which the government takes a non-smooth Keynesian policy rule.

Jacob D. Leshno, Elaine Shi, Rafael Pass

Bitcoin demonstrated the possibility of a financial ledger that operates without the need for a trusted central authority. However, concerns persist regarding its security and considerable energy consumption. We assess the consensus protocols that underpin Bitcoin's functionality, questioning whether they can ensure economically meaningful security while maintaining a permissionless design that allows free entry of operators. We answer this affirmatively by constructing a protocol that guarantees economic security and preserves Bitcoin's permissionless design. This protocol's security does not depend on monetary payments to miners or immense electricity consumption, which our analysis suggests are ineffective. Our framework integrates economic theory with distributed systems theory, and formalizes the role of the protocol's user community.

Ayato Kitadai, Sinndy Dayana Rico Lugo, Yudai Tsurusaki et al.

Economic experiments offer a controlled setting for researchers to observe human decision-making and test diverse theories and hypotheses; however, substantial costs and efforts are incurred to gather many individuals as experimental participants. To address this, with the development of large language models (LLMs), some researchers have recently attempted to develop simulated economic experiments using LLMs-driven agents, called generative agents. If generative agents can replicate human-like decision-making in economic experiments, the cost problem of economic experiments can be alleviated. However, such a simulation framework has not been yet established. Considering the previous research and the current evolutionary stage of LLMs, this study focuses on the reasoning ability of generative agents as a key factor toward establishing a framework for such a new methodology. A multi-agent simulation, designed to improve the reasoning ability of generative agents through prompting methods, was developed to reproduce the result of an actual economic experiment on the ultimatum game. The results demonstrated that the higher the reasoning ability of the agents, the closer the results were to the theoretical solution than to the real experimental result. The results also suggest that setting the personas of the generative agents may be important for reproducing the results of real economic experiments. These findings are valuable for the future definition of a framework for replacing human participants with generative agents in economic experiments when LLMs are further developed.

Дхьяни Мехта , М. Малликарджун

The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis claims that private consumption is neutral to the fiscal deficit and its mode of financing (debt vs tax). The study reinvestigates the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in India by taking private consumption as the dependent variable, whereas government expenditure, government debt, tax, domestic income, and trade are considered as independent variables. In the Indian context, the Ricardian view raises an interesting point. If the Ricardian equivalence holds in the Indian economy, households alter their spending patterns and consequently increase their savings, making the policy changes ineffective. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach was applied to the annual time series data from 1988 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between the variables; the results reject the Ricardian Equivalence and propound the Keynesian approach that the mode of financing the fiscal deficit (debt vs tax) does matter to the private consumption expenditure. The estimates also assert the long-run relation between trade openness and private consumption spending. The positive and significant coefficient shows that an open economy leads to an increase in consumption, which indirectly supports the Compensation Hypothesis. Given that deficit financing and trade openness have a substantial influence on India’s consumer spending, it can be concluded that expansionary fiscal and liberal trade policies should be carefully devised and supported. This study contributes to the existing literature on the Ricardian equivalence and trade openness by presenting new evidence on designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country’s consumption expenditure and global presence.

Davide Crapis, Edward W. Felten, Akaki Mamageishvili

We study the economics of the Ethereum improvement proposal 4844 and its effect on rollups' data posting strategies. Rollups' cost consists of two parts: data posting and delay. In the new proposal, the data posting cost corresponds to a blob posting cost and is fixed in each block, no matter how much of the blob is utilized by the rollup. The tradeoff is clear: the rollup prefers to post a full blob, but if its transaction arrival rate is low, filling up a blob space causes too large delay cost. The first result of the paper shows that if a rollup transaction arrival rate is too low, it prefers to use the regular blockspace market for data posting, as it offers a more flexible cost structure. Second, we show that shared blob posting is not always beneficial for participating rollups and change in the aggregate blob posting cost in the equilibrium depends on the types of participating rollups. In the end, we discuss blob cost-sharing rules from an axiomatic angle.

Nikolai V. Voroshilov, Konstantin A. Zadumkin, Evgeniy B. Shulepov

Introduction. The adoption in 2019 of the new state program of the Russian Federation “Integrated development of rural territories” determines the relevance of the evaluation of the program-target method in the development of the Russian village (taking into account the specifics of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipalities that differ greatly from each other). The purpose of this article is to identify possible shortcomings and existing problems in the implementation of the state program “Integrated Development of rural areas” as a key tool for the implementation of the program-target method of rural development of the regions of Russia and, based on this, substantiate recommendations to the authorities on improving the measures and tools for the implementation of this method in relation to rural development. Materials and Methods. To achieve the purpose, we have used the methods of economic, statistical, and comparative analysis, generalization and analysis, sociological researches. Information basis consists of Rosstat’s official statistics, as well as reporting documents of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the results of a questionnaire survey of heads of municipalities of the Vologda region, publications of scientists and experts in journals and on the Internet. Results. The results of the analysis made it possible to identify the key shortcomings of the program and the problems of implementing the state program “Integrated Development of rural territories”, including a reduction in the amount of financial support for this state program for 2020–2025 in comparison with its original passport, imperfection of approaches and criteria for selecting projects for rural development, the problem of lack of qualified personnel for project development and limited powers of local self-government bodies. The specifics of the implementation of this state program within the framework of the proposed typology of the subjects of the Russian Federation according to the level of development of agricultural production and the overall level of their socio-economic development are revealed. The directions of improvement of this state program and approaches, mechanisms of its implementation are substantiated. Discussion and Conclusion. According to the results of the study, it is shown that the mechanism of implementation of the program-target method for the development of rural areas of Russia does not yet allow to provide for their complete and real comprehensive and sustainable development. The materials of the article can be used by federal, regional, and local authorities to improve the approaches and methods of implementing policies for the development of rural areas.

Jakhar Babloo, Kait Rohtas, Kumar Vijay

Subject and purpose of work: The study aims to highlight the perception of farmers regarding the causes and consequences of their indebtedness.

María Ibañez Martin, Cintia Karina Martínez

La pandemia por covid-19 y la consecuente caída en el nivel de actividad económica a lo largo y ancho del planisferio han puesto en peligro numerosas empresas pertenecientes a diversos sectores económicos. Ante un contexto difícil, la toma de decisiones de política pública dirigidas al aliviar la situación de las empresas se vuelve central y, para ello, es vital contar con información sobre el nivel de endeudamiento y los factores explicativos. Este trabajo pretende avanzar en el estudio sobre ambas cuestiones, utilizando como caso de estudio el sector comercial de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca (Buenos Aires, Argentina). A partir de un relevamiento propio realizado durante el primer trimestre de 2021 y mediante la técnica de modelos logísticos ordenados en su versión generalizada, se encuentra que el perfil del responsable de la toma de decisiones en las empresas, el contexto económico y la situación financiera de corto plazo condicionan la elección de la deuda, la forma de financiamiento, y el nivel de deuda adquirido. Adicionalmente, se encuentra un alto grado de vulnerabilidad financiera en el sector reflejado en su incapacidad para sortear situaciones de riesgo utilizando estrategias propias. En palabras de Castels, el sector comercial bahiense parece estar haciendo “equilibrio sobre la cuerda floja”.

Edward J. Oughton, William Lehr

Techno-economic assessment is a fundamental technique engineers use for evaluating new communications technologies. However, despite the techno-economics of the fifth cellular generation (5G) being an active research area, it is surprising there are few comprehensive evaluations of this growing literature. With mobile network operators deploying 5G across their networks, it is therefore an opportune time to appraise current accomplishments and review the state-of-the-art. Such insight can inform the flurry of 6G research papers currently underway and help engineers in their mission to provide affordable high-capacity, low-latency broadband connectivity, globally. The survey discusses emerging trends from the 5G techno-economic literature and makes five key recommendations for the design and standardization of Next Generation 6G wireless technologies.

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, John M. Abowd, Camille Busette et al.

This article is an edited transcript of the session of the same name at the 38th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference: Policy Options for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. The panelists are experts from government and private research organizations.

Tomoo Kikuchi, Satoshi Tobe

We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 50 countries from 1997 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by using the sovereign credit default swap spread as an instrumental variable. Furthermore, we find that foreign debt increases investment and then GDP growth in subsequent years. Our findings suggest that lower sovereign default risks lead to higher foreign debt contributing to GDP growth more in OECD than non-OECD countries.

Isaak D. Mayergoyz, Can E. Korman

Hysteresis is treated as a history dependent branching, and the use of the classical Preisach model for the analysis of macroeconomic hysteresis is first discussed. Then, a new Preisach-type model is introduced as a macroeconomic aggregation of more realistic microeconomic hysteresis than in the case of the classical Preisach model. It is demonstrated that this model is endowed with a more general mechanism of branching and may account for the continuous evolution of the economy and its effect on hysteresis. Furthermore, it is shown that the sluggishness of economic recovery is an intrinsic manifestation of hysteresis branching.

A. Alebachew, Carlyn Mann, Workie Mitiku et al.

The following sections are included:Implementation of fiscal decentralization has had limited success in terms of creating fiscal space with woreda (district) resources more “tied” than federal and regional governments’ as most of their resources go to recurrent budget, especially for salaries.Domestic resource mobilization through user fees, including retention and utilization of user fees, was effective, both in terms of the number of facilities in which it is implemented and in the magnitude of resources being generated and used for quality improvement at the facility level.Ethiopia developed a series of financing arrangements and modalities to effectively align external support with government priorities for health and used these resources to reach the very poor and deliver results — indicating the value for money. This encouraged other development partners to support Ethiopia’s health sector.The impact of OOP on utilization, especially by the poor remains a concern, but introduction and scale-up of CBHI should alleviate the burden of OOP at the point of use with evidence suggesting that this insurance scheme minimizes catastrophic spending and impoverishment.There is evidence of significant inefficiency in services delivery, but more evidence about its causes and remedies is needed

Victor Olkhov

We introduce the price probability measure η(p;t) that defines the mean price p(1;t), mean square price p(2;t), price volatility σp2(t)and all price n-th statistical moments p(n;t) as ratio of sums of n-th degree values C(n;t) and volumes U(n;t) of market trades aggregated during certain time interval Δ. The definition of the mean price p(1;t) coincides with definition of the volume weighted average price (VWAP) introduced at least 30 years ago. We show that price volatility σp2(t) forecasting requires modeling evolution of the sums of second-degree values C(2;t) and volumes U(2;t). We call this model as second-order economic theory. We use numerical continuous risk ratings as ground for risk assessment of economic agents and distribute agents by risk ratings as coordinates. We introduce continuous economic media approximation of squares of values and volumes of agents trades and their flows aggregated during time interval Δ. We take into account expectations that govern agents trades and introduce aggregated expectations alike to aggregated trades. We derive equations for continuous economic media approximation on the second-degree trades. In the linear approximation we derive mean square price p(2;t) and volatility σp2(t) disturbances as functions of the first and second-degree trades disturbances. Description of each next n-th price statistical moment p(n;t) with respect to the unit price measure η(p;t) depends on sums of n-th degree values C(n;t) and volumes U(n;t) of market trades and hence requires development of the corresponding n-th order economic theory.