Hasil untuk "Meteorology. Climatology"

Matthew L. Newell, Martin Drews, Andrea Böhnisch et al.

An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has been reported across the globe. These events threaten society through hazards like floods and droughts, underscoring the need to understand how such risks are evolving in a changing climate. Standardized methods have recently been introduced to assess the potential role of climate change for extreme events. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) offers a probabilistic framework to determine whether changes in the frequency and severity of extremes can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Here we use this methodology to attribute an unprecedented rainfall event in Southern Denmark to anthropogenic climate change. On September 27, 2024, approx. 145 mm of rainfall fell over the city of Esbjerg, marking the highest daily rainfall on record for September. The event caused widespread flooding, disrupting transportation, damaging infrastructure, and affecting residential areas. This study draws on rainfall observations, reanalysis datasets, and climate model ensembles to assess the role of anthropogenic climate change. Notably, this is the first attribution study to apply ClimEx, a high-resolution, regional single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE). The results of the analysis show that the rainfall event was 60 % (−20 %–540 %) more likely in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate, and that the intensity of the event increased by 10.2 % (−3.3 %–25.6 %) due to climate change. Our findings also indicate that the frequency and intensity of such events increase with further warming. Overall, this study highlights how hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities contribute to risk in cities.

Zijian Jiang, Zhiyin Zou, Wending Wang et al.

High-resolution air quality models (AQMs) are critical for real-time air quality forecasting and exposure assessment, although their computational costs increase cubically with resolution. Quantifying model sensitivity to resolution is therefore crucial for developing effective forecasting systems. This study conducts a systematic model intercomparison of three widely used AQMs (CAMx, CMAQ, NAQPMS) under identical input conditions at 45, 15, and 5 km resolutions to forecast PM_2.5 and O₃ in the North China Plain during 2021. Results indicate distinct, model-dependent responses to grid refinement. NAQPMS achieves the optimal PM_2.5 forecasting performance at 5 km, with improvements in nearly all evaluated statistics. CMAQ excels in O₃ prediction at 5 km resolution, with RMSE reducing 6.48 μg/m³ relative to the coarsest grids. We also found that terrain complexity significantly influences these resolution-dependent biases, leading to a substantial 19.51% reduction in NMB in the CAMx PM_2.5 simulation over mountain areas. Moreover, the evaluation of 10-day forecasting accuracy suggests that a high-resolution setting is recommended for NAQPMS and CMAQ, whereas a coarser resolution is sufficient for CAMx. These findings underscore that optimizing real-time forecasting strategies requires a critical investigation of inter-model physicochemical discrepancies rather than universally pursuing higher resolution.

Zhengyao Liu, Jing Huang, Xiaokang Liu et al.

In the context of rapid urbanization and extreme climate change globally, balancing ecological resources and economic development for land spatial planning has become one of the pressing issues that need to be addressed. This study proposes a composite model to construct a spatial ecological security pattern. It identifies restoration areas with different risk levels based on the spatial distribution of land use, offering suggestions for optimizing spatial configuration. Focusing on the central Shaanxi region of the Yellow River Basin in China, ecological sources are identified by integrating ecological factors, and ecological corridors and restoration zones are extracted using the minimum cumulative resistance difference and circuit theory. The results indicate significant improvements in ecological quality and desertification in the study area from 2000 to 2020. Currently, the core area covers 51,649.71 km², accounting for 62.18% of all landscape types; the total ecological source area covers 31,304.88 km², representing 18.84% of the entire area. These ecological source areas are mainly distributed in the northern Loess Plateau and the southern mountainous regions. The area has 26 important ecological corridors, identifying 16 ecological pinch points and 12 ecological barriers, presenting an ecological security pattern characterized by a grid-like structure in the northern region and a dispersed pattern in the southern region. Additionally, 273.72 km² of ecological restoration priority areas and 197.98 square kilometers of ecological restoration encouragement areas are proposed as key planning regions for ecological environmental protection. This study provides references for optimizing spatial configuration to promote the sustainable development of urban and rural living environments in the Yellow River Basin.

Janis Krumins, Maris Klavins

Biosphere reserves serve as critical areas for balancing conservation with sustainable development. This study investigates land-use and land-cover changes in the North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve (Latvia) from 1990 to 2018, employing scenario-based modeling to project future trends. Historical analyses reveal overall stability but highlight cyclical agricultural intensification and extensification, forest decline, and expansions in transitional woodland-shrub. Four scenarios—business-as-usual, sustainable development, climate adaptation and mitigation, and conservation-oriented—were evaluated for their ecological and socio-economic implications. Business-as-usual scenario continues historical trends of moderate urban growth and agricultural intensification, risking limited restoration gains. In contrast, sustainable development and climate adaptation and mitigation scenarios emphasize reforestation, biodiversity improvement, and climate resilience, aligning with the European Union 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. Conservation-oriented scenario prioritizes stabilization and minimizing anthropogenic pressures yet lacks proactive restoration measures. Statistical tests confirm that socio-economic factors, zoning, and landscape richness significantly drive land-use and land-cover changes, with most changes adhering to the North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve regulations. However, certain non-compliant changes, such as forest-to-agriculture conversions, highlight the need for stronger enforcement. While ecological impacts such as land-use transitions, biodiversity shifts, and conservation compliance were considered, socio-economic implications were primarily discussed in relation to zoning and land-use trends rather than through a standalone analysis. These scenario-based insights offer valuable guidance for adaptive land management in protected areas.

Chenzheng Li, Anatoly V. Brouchkov, Viktor G. Cheverev et al.

Methane, a type of greenhouse gas, poses considerable concern for humans. This study uses field experiments and satellite measurements to explore methane emission mechanisms during the freezing of seasonal permafrost and the contributing factors. In the transitional seasons of autumn and winter, as soil begins to freeze, methane emissions surge dramatically in a brief period. During this phase, the emissions peak, enabling the soil to accumulate over 9000 mg/m³ of methane rapidly. Snow cover also plays a crucial role in mitigating methane emissions. The porous nature of a sufficiently thick snow cover aids in temporarily trapping methane through a stratified blocking process, effectively matching the inhibitory capability of unfrozen soil. In comparison to unfrozen soil (54–237 mg/m³), snow cover can suppress methane emissions up to 20 times more, reducing emissions by as much as 3399 mg/m³.

Nidhi Singh, Veer Singh, Vishal Mishra et al.

Soil contains several organic, and inorganic substances and a large number of bacterial diversity. This bacterial diversity is also involved in biomass degradation and plant growth promotion. Metagenomic sequencing was used to analyze bacterial diversity in the rice field soil and sludge samples. Amplicon sequencing of the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene revealed that representative sequences clustered were 0.4 million in both rice and sludge samples. The Venn diagram demonstrates the overall identified OTUs was 359 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs). OTUs were classified into more than 30 phyla, 50 classes, and 90 genera. The metagenomic analysis revealed that 82 and 85 taxa are exclusively unique to the bacterial communities of the rice and sludge soils, respectively. The metagenomic study also revealed that Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Acidobacteria and other unknown bacteria were reported in 16S rRNA Illumina MiSeq in the sludge and rice soil samples. The most abundant groups in rice field soil were Proteobacteria, Chloroflexi, Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Bacteroidetes which increase the soil nutrient and influence the growth of the plants. Bacteroidetes are the most dominant group in sludge soil than rice field soil. This comparative analysis provides insights into the ecological roles and adaptive strategies of soil bacteria in different environmental contexts, offering valuable information for sustainable soil management and bioremediation practices.

Jency Maria Sojan, Jayaraman Srinivasan

Extreme humid heat stress poses distinct challenges to human health and productivity that cannot be mitigated solely by heat action plans designed for dry heat stress. This study investigates the trends in extreme heat stress, differentiating between dry and moist heat, in India from 1943 to 2022 using the high-resolution hourly ERA5 reanalysis data. The analysis utilizes the Heat Index (HI) as a key parameter to identify instances of extreme humid heat stress, characterized by HI values exceeding 41 degrees Celsius and relative humidity more than 50%. The findings indicate that certain eastern coastal regions in peninsular India experience extreme humid heat stress from May to June due to persistent high humidity levels. In addition, northwest, northcentral and inland eastern coastal regions encounter extreme dry heat stress preceding the monsoon season, followed by a transition to humid heat stress immediately after the onset of the monsoon. The results also show that there has been a significant increase ofsix times (on average) in the extreme humid heat stress hours per grid over the past 80 years compared to a threefold increase in dry heat stress. Our research underscores the need to shift from exclusively addressing dry heat stress to adopting a comprehensive approach that considers the impacts of humid heat stress.

Zachary J. Suriano, Charles Loewy, Jamie Uz

Abstract Prior research evaluating snowfall conditions and temporal trends in the United States often acknowledges the role of various synoptic-scale weather systems in governing snowfall variability. While synoptic classifications have been performed in other regions of North America in applications to snowfall, there remains a need for enhanced understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms of snowfall in the central United States. Here we conduct a novel synoptic climatological investigation of the weather systems responsible for snowfall in the central United States from 1948 to 2021 focused on their identification and the quantification of associated snowfall totals and events. Ten unique synoptic weather types (SWTs) were identified, each resulting in distinct regions of enhanced snowfall across the study domain aligning with regions of sufficiently cold air temperatures and forcing mechanisms. While a substantial proportion of seasonal snowfall is attributed to SWTs associated with surface troughs and/or midlatitude cyclones, in portions of the southeastern and western study domain, as much as 70% of seasonal snowfall occurs during systems with high pressure centers as the domain’s synoptic-scale forcing. Easterly flow, potentially resulting in topographic uplift from high pressure to east of the domain, was associated with between 15% and 25% of seasonal snowfall in Nebraska and South Dakota. On average, 64.8% of the SWT occurrences resulted in snowfall within the study region, ranging between 40.1% and 93.5% by SWT. Synoptic climatological investigations provide valuable insights into the unique weather systems that generate hydroclimatic variability. Significance Statement By evaluating the weather patterns that are responsible for snowfall in the central United States, key insights can be gained into how and why snowfall varies and potentially changes over space and time. Using an approach that categorizes weather patterns based on their similarities, here 10 unique snowfall-producing weather patterns are identified and analyzed from 1948 to 2021. Each pattern resulted in different snowfall amounts across the central United States, varying substantially spatially and within the calendar year. Approximately 65% of the time that these weather patterns occur, snowfall is observed in the region. The majority of snowfall-producing weather patterns are associated with low pressure systems, but in some regions up to 70% of snowfall is associated with instances of high pressure in which winds can cause upward motions associated with topography.

Advances in Meteorology

Bwema Ombati Mogaka, Stanley Karanja Ng'ang'a, Hillary Kiplangat Bett

The adoption of climate-smart soil (CSS) practices among farmers have the potential to rehabilitate and protect the soil. Proponents have not fully addressed factors such as; profitability and the relative risk that farmers face during the adoption and implementation of these CSS practices. These factors determine the adoption and sustainability of these practices. This study assessed the comparative profitability and relative risk of implementing CSS practices among farmers in Kakamega, Siaya, and Bungoma counties in Western Kenya. The prioritization of these CSS practices (agroforestry, intercropping, liming, organic manure use, inorganic fertilizer, and improved hybrid seeds) was based on the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) pillars (production, adaptation, and mitigation) and their benefits. A deterministic cost-benefit analysis model that incorporates sensitivity and scenario analysis assessed these factors. The findings showed that agroforestry was the most profitable having a net present value of US$ 16,071 ha−1, followed by intercropping (US$ 10,487 ha−1), and the use of improved hybrid seeds was the least profitable (US$ 881 ha−1). In terms of relative risk, all the practices were more sensitive to the product price and output than the lifespan, discount rate, and labour cost. The result implies that exposure of these practices to climatic and economic shocks will result in high-profit risk. Therefore, national and county governments should place micro-credit loans with minimum interest, input subsidies, and skilled personnel to promote increased adoption of agroforestry and intercropping. Agricultural extension officers should also demystify farmers' mentality that improved hybrid seeds can guarantee increased productivity.

Manikanda Bharath Karuppasamy, Usha Natesan, Shankar Karuppannan et al.

The present study examines indoor and outdoor environmental particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in order to evaluate the urban air quality, the sources and pathways of pollutants, and its impact on Chennai megacity, South India. A total number of 25 air conditioner filter particulate matter samples collected from residential buildings, schools, colleges, commercial shopping malls, and buildings near urban highways were studied for indoor air quality. Similarly, outdoor air quality assessments have been done in various parts of the Chennai metropolis, including the Manali-Industrial area, the Velachery-Residential site, and the Alandur Bus Depot, as well as collected air quality data sets from the Central Pollution Control Board at continuous ambient air quality monitoring stations. The suspended atmospheric particles where the highest concentration (47%) occurred were mostly located in the roadside environments followed by commercial areas (42%), which indicates the increase in air pollution in the roadside areas. Further, environmental magnetism and ecological risk indices were studied from the collected data set. The study predicts that the air pollutants were predominantly from anthropogenic sources, such as vehicle emissions, effluents from power plants, abrasion of tires, steelworks, burning of fossil fuels and construction materials, etc. As a result, the current study suggests 68% of indoor pollutants were from the anthropogenic input, 18% from the pedogenic origin, and 14% from high heavy metal pollution at the sampling sites. This indicates that raising the ventilation rate via mechanical components significantly enhances the indoor air quality. These findings might be valuable in improving urban air quality, reducing traffic-related pollutants, and improving environmental quality.

H. Barras, H. Barras, O. Martius et al.

<p>In Switzerland, hail regularly occurs in multi-day hail clusters. The atmospheric conditions prior to and during multi-day hail clusters are described and contrasted to the conditions prior to and during isolated hail days. The analysis focuses on hail days that occurred between April and September 2002–2019 within 140 km of the Swiss radar network. Hail days north and south of the Alps are defined using a minimum area threshold of a radar-based hail product. Multi-day clusters are defined as 5 d windows containing 4 or 5 hail days and isolated hail days as 5 d windows containing a single hail day. The reanalysis ERA-5 is used to study the large-scale flow in combination with objectively identified cold fronts, atmospheric blocking events, and a weather type classification. Both north and south of the Alps, isolated hail days have frequency maxima in May and August–September, whereas clustered hail days occur mostly in July and August. Composites of atmospheric variables indicate a more stationary and meridionally amplified atmospheric flow both north and south of the Alps during multi-day hail clusters. On clustered hail days north of the Alps, blocks are more frequent over the North Sea, and surface fronts are located farther from Switzerland than on isolated hail days. Clustered hail days north of the Alps are also characterized by significantly higher most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) values, warmer daily maximum surface temperatures, and higher atmospheric moisture content than isolated hail days. Hence, both stationary flow conditions and anomalous amounts of moisture are necessary for multi-day hail clusters on the north side. In contrast, differences in MUCAPE on the south side between clustered hail days and isolated hail days are small. The mean sea level pressure south of the Alps is significantly deeper, the maximum temperature is colder, and local moisture is significantly lower on isolated hail days. Both north and south of the Alps, the upper-level atmospheric flow over the eastern Atlantic is meridionally more amplified 3 d prior to clustered hail days than prior to isolated days. Moreover, blocking occurs prior to more than 10 % of clustered hail days over Scandinavia, but no blocks occur prior to isolated hail days. Half of the clustered hail days south of the Alps are also clustered north of the Alps. On hail days clustering only south of the Alps, fronts are more frequently located on the Alpine ridge, and local low-level winds are stronger. The temporal clustering of hail days is coupled to specific synoptic- and local-scale flow conditions; this information may be exploited for short- to medium-range forecasts of hail in Switzerland.</p>

Pinlu Cao, Zhuo Chen, Hongyu Cao et al.

Using an anti-icing coating to prevent ice accretion on the drill surface is a feasible solution to address the drilling difficulties in warm ice. In this study, four types of commercially available hydrophobic coating materials were tested to evaluate their water repellency and anti-icing properties, namely, a mixture of silica and fluorocarbon resin with polytrifluoroethylene, modified Teflon, silica-based emulsion and an acrylic-based copolymer. Their water contact angles are ~107°, 101°, 114° and 95°, respectively. All these hydrophobic coatings can significantly reduce the strength of the ice adhesion within a temperature range of −10 to −30°C on a planar or curved surface. The coating of an acrylic-based copolymer, in particular, can reduce the average tensile strength and the shear strength of the ice adhesion by 87.08 and 97.11% on planar surfaces at −30°C, and by 98.06 and 96.15% on a curved surface, respectively. The main challenge in the practical application of these coatings is their durability. An acrylic-based copolymer coating will lose its water repellency performance after 140 cycles of abrasion. The shear strength of ice adhered on curved surfaces coated with this material will approach that achieved on uncoated surfaces after 11 cycles of icing and de-icing tests.

Mishev Alexander, Jiggens Piers

The Sun emits energetic particles following eruptive events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) arrive in bursts known as Solar Particle Events (SPEs), which penetrate into the Earth’s magnetosphere. SEPs with large enough energy induce a complicated atmospheric cascade, which secondary particles lead to an enhancement of count rate of ground-based detectors e.g. Neutron Monitors (NMs). This class of SEPs is therefore referred as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). The characterisation of the high-energy SEPs environment with corresponding space weather effects is important for space flights, aviation, and satellite industry. In this topical issue recent developments, addressing important user needs in the space radiation environment domain are published. Some articles are relevant to the specification of the SEP environment whilst others focus on space weather prediction of SEP fluxes. Catalogues based on measurement and processing of SEPs including ground-based data, and modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during major events are also presented.

Sergei Soldatenko, Chris Tingwell, Peter Steinle et al.

The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations) on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator) global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%), radiosondes (10.5%), wind profilers (3.9%), pilot balloons (2.8%), buoys (1.7%) and ships (1.2%). In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

Sally L. Lavender

Ciro Ricco, Ida Aquino, Sven Ettore P. Borgstrom et al.

<p>Mt. Vesuvius, located along the SW border of the Campania Plane graben, is one of the most studied volcanoes worldwide, from both the volcanological and the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic point of view. In order to better understand its dynamics, the deformation of the volcano has been already studied since the early ’70s by setting up levelling lines and, since a few years later, through trilateration networks, whereas ground tilt monitoring started in 1993. Tilt variations were recorded by an automatic surface station set up at the Osservatorio Vesuviano (O.V.) bunker (OVO) and data recorded were transmitted to the O.V. Surveillance Centre in Naples. Afterwards, in 1996 two more identical stations were set up close to Torre del Greco (CMD), and close to Trecase (TRC). In 2002 the data acquisition system was replaced, while at the end of 2011 a Lily borehole sensor was set up at 26 m depth, replacing the old TRC tilt station. The paper describes in details the tilt network of Mt. Vesuvius, its development over time and the data processing procedure; moreover, the ground deformation pattern is discussed, as inferred from the study of 19 years of data and its change during the seismic crises of 1995-1996 and 1999-2000. From the information obtained from the tiltmetric monitoring, a complex deformation pattern can be deduced, strongly dependent on the position of the sites in which the sensors were set up with respect to the morphology of the volcanic edifice and its structural outlines. If we consider the signals as they were recorded, although previously corrected for the influences of the thermo-elastic strain on the sensors, the tilting occurs mainly in the SW direction with rates of about 11 µradians/year on both the western and eastern flanks and of about 13 µradians/year on the southern one. Because tilt vectors point in the long term outward from the summit and towards the subsiding area, this supports the hypothesis of a southern areas subsidence, according with a spreading effect of Vesuvius, taking into account geological, structural, geophysical and geodetical (optical levelling, InSAR) data. The SW tilting occurs therefore irregularly and shows some seasonalities, consistent with the solar thermal radiation whose removal by statistical procedure outlines a different but equally interesting deformation field as it shows interruptions with changes in both trend and amplitude during two periods of strong seismic activity that affected Mt. Vesuvius in the periods 1995-1996 and late 1999-2000, marked by an average rate of energy release of at least one order of magnitude greater than the previous and following periods. Another change in intensity and direction of the deformation detected by tiltmeters since 2000, connected with the variations of the phase shift between the tilt components and the temperature recorded, compared to previous years, occurs during a strong decrease of the energy released by Vesuvius earthquakes.</p>

Fan Zhang, Xing Li, Weimin Wang et al.

Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF) are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

G. König‐Langlo, J. King, P. Pettré

J. Moody, S. Oltmans, H. Levy et al.