Hasil untuk "Demography. Population. Vital events"

Joseph Taylor, Oleksii Sukhoi, Jennifer Jane Newson et al.

Background The rapid growth of internet and mobile technologies has opened up new, low-cost methods for large-scale population surveys. The Global Mind Project (GMP) is one such survey that uses quota-based online strategies that dynamically target respondents by age, sex, and location. However, how well this method aligns with national population statistics remains unclear. Objective To evaluate how well GMP data collected through online recruitment aligns demographically with United States (US) benchmarks from traditional probability-based surveys, including the American Community Survey (ACS), Household Pulse Survey (HPS), and American Trends Panel (ATP). Methods We analysed 114,721 GMP responses collected in the US between 2020 and 2024. Participants were recruited via Facebook and Google AdSense using broad interest-based keywords and stratified demographic targeting. GMP data were time- and question-matched with ACS, HPS, and ATP data to compare trends in educational attainment, marital status, mental health treatment, and number of close friends. Results Demographic patterns in GMP data typically aligned with national statistics within a 5–7% margin. Educational attainment by age was similar to ACS data, except among 65+, where GMP consistently showed a 5% and 10% higher rate of High School and Bachelor’s completion, respectively. GMP and ACS matched near-perfectly for Divorced and Widowed marital status by age while ‘Not married’ in the GMP was 6-10% higher compared to ‘Never married’ individuals in the ACS and, conversely, lower in the Married group. GMP aggregate mental health treatment estimates were within ±1% of HPS values for three of the four years studied, although age-specific differences ranged from 5–8%. Compared to ATP, those reporting two or fewer friends were 15% higher in the GMP. These differences reflect differences in sampling methodology but also imperfect matches of categories and differing non-response bias arising from mode of survey. Conclusions GMP data demonstrate that with dynamic targeting and quota-based sampling, online recruitment methods can produce data that align well with traditional national surveys. This data, therefore, offers real-time, inclusive and cost-efficient population-level monitoring of mental health and social trends, with potential for use in public health research and policy.

Jiaming Li, Xi-Wang Luo, Guang-Can Guo et al.

High-fidelity coherent population transfer plays a vital role in the realization of quantum memories. However, population transfer with high performance across a broad frequency range is still challenging due to the finite Rabi coupling strength limited by laser powers. Here we propose a novel population-transfer scheme by suturing adiabatic control pulses with each pulse covering certain frequency interval, which are connected in a way that neighboring adiabatic pulses have opposite chirping directions. Taking the widely utilized hyperbolic-square-hyperbolic pulse as an example, we demonstrate that rapid and robust population transfer can be achieved. The transfer bandwidth scales linearly with the number of suture pulses while maintaining high fidelity, even at the suture points where adiabaticity breaks down. Crucially, these pulses can be realized by a single laser by means of temporal multiplexing. For a given bandwidth, this strategy substantially reduces the operational time which is necessary for on demand read-out and suppressing decoherence effects. Our scheme enables a dramatic increase in multimode storage capacity and paves the way for realizing practical quantum networks.

Sophie McCall

Objectives This presentation will describe how we co-designed the creation and provision of a single low fidelity synthetic data repository for multiple data controllers, where researchers can access synthetic data for data discovery and code development. Methods From user and public engagement, we identified researcher demand for access to low-fidelity synthetic data prior to real data. Our metadata catalogue collates information on Scottish datasets available for research and is the digital platform for our synthetic data repository, hosting assets generated by partner organisations and ourselves. Embedded into our process are quality checks to assess labelling, structure, disclosure and documentation of synthetic data, with an ‘End User Licence Agreement’ to guard against synthetic data being used inappropriately. These measures give assurance that privacy is preserved whilst making synthetic data as freely available as possible. Results We have completed the pilot phase of this project, establishing a repository of synthetic data in our metadata catalogue, which researchers can apply to for access. We will share the rationale for decisions made during the project, together with challenges faced. Key aspects of consideration are the user journey and promotion of our service within the wider data community. Using data analytics relating to number of synthetic datasets requested and downloaded, together with case studies from researchers, we will establish the success of our project. Finally, we will describe our plans to extend our work, to include hosting more datasets and working with partner organisations to support with their synthetic data generation, to ensure they meets our standards of quality and disclosure. Conclusion Developing a synthetic data repository has been a significant milestone for our organisation and our ambition to improve researcher access to data. By adopting an iterative approach and responding to user and public feedback, our repository has proved to be an exemplar of how to make synthetic data available.

Dirk Konietzka, Yevgeniy Martynovych

In recent years, many European countries have experienced growing disparities between urban and rural areas. These disparities are associated not only with differences in infrastructure, public goods and cultural provision, but also with heterogeneous demographic developments. In this paper, we intersect the perspectives of spatial demography, urban geography and social stratification by examining whether spatial inequalities between educational groups have increased in six European countries since the turn of the millennium. Analytically, we focus on (a) the educational composition of metropolitan and rural populations and (b) the residential patterns of educational groups. The empirical analyses using European Social Survey (ESS) data suggest that while there are no systematic changes over the two-decade study period, patterns of residential disparities differ considerably across the analysed countries. In particular, France and Sweden emerge as countries with significant differences in residential location between educational groups. At the same time, there is no evidence that the educational gradient of place of residence is stronger among the younger than the older age groups.

Noah E. Wolfe, Matthew Mould, Jack Heinzel et al.

From catalogs of gravitational-wave transients, the population-level properties of their sources and the formation channels of merging compact binaries can be constrained. However, astrophysical conclusions can be biased by misspecification or misestimation of the population likelihood. Despite detection thresholds on the false-alarm rate (FAR) or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the current catalog is likely contaminated by noise transients. Further, computing the population likelihood becomes less accurate as the catalog grows. Current methods to address these challenges often scale poorly with the number of events and potentially become infeasible for future catalogs. Here, we evaluate a simple remedy: increasing the significance threshold for including events in population analyses. To determine the efficacy of this approach, we analyze simulated catalogs of up to 1600 gravitational-wave signals from black-hole mergers using full Bayesian parameter estimation with current detector sensitivities. We show that the growth in statistical uncertainty about the black-hole population, as we analyze fewer events but with higher SNR, depends on the source parameters of interest. When the SNR threshold is raised from 11 to 15 -- reducing our catalog size by two--thirds -- we find that statistical uncertainties on the mass distribution only grow by a few 10% and constraints on the spin distribution are essentially unchanged; meanwhile, uncertainties on the high-redshift cosmic merger rate more than double. Simultaneously, numerical uncertainty in the estimate of the population likelihood more than halves, allowing us to ensure unbiased inference without additional computational expense. Our results demonstrate that focusing on higher-significance events is an effective way to facilitate robust astrophysical inference with growing gravitational-wave catalogs.

Sylvain Marcoux, Jean-Sébastien Dessureault

City leaders face critical decisions regarding budget allocation and investment priorities. How can they identify which city districts require revitalization? To address this challenge, a Current Vitality Index and a Long-Term Vitality Index are proposed. These indexes are based on a carefully curated set of indicators. Missing data is handled using K-Nearest Neighbors imputation, while Random Forest is employed to identify the most reliable and significant features. Additionally, k-means clustering is utilized to generate meaningful data groupings for enhanced monitoring of Long-Term Vitality. Current vitality is visualized through an interactive map, while Long-Term Vitality is tracked over 15 years with predictions made using Multilayer Perceptron or Linear Regression. The results, approved by urban planners, are already promising and helpful, with the potential for further improvement as more data becomes available. This paper proposes leveraging machine learning methods to optimize urban planning and enhance citizens' quality of life.

Estelle Lowry, Neil Rowland

Objective Our primary objective was to determine the social and demographic determinants of interpregnancy weight change. A secondary aim is to highlight the novel linkage of two data resources in Northern Ireland (NI) and the potential for transformative research in maternal health. Approach We piloted a process to link two datasets in a safe, legal and ethical manner. The NI Maternity Services System (NIMATS) provides access to biological variables collected during the gestational period. The NI Longitudinal Study (NILS) is a rich source of Census information providing a demographic, social and economic background we would not otherwise obtain from NIMATS alone. Results The linkage of these two datasets has allowed us to link pregnancies to the same mother, enabling exploration of weight changes during the interpregnancy period(s). In NI, just over half of women giving birth (52%) were overweight. This is the highest in the UK. Descriptive statistics provided further insight into the current situation together with logistic regression which identified socio-economic and demographic correlates of interpregnancy weight changes. Conclusion & Implications Observation of women during pregnancy, linked with longitudinal, administrative data has provided valuable insights into the important public health issue of maternal obesity and into which socio-economic groups are most vulnerable to weight gain between pregnancies. Further research in maternal health has the potential to be facilitated by the unique linkage of NILS and NIMATS. This is important given the rise in complicated pregnancies during recent years and changes in maternal socio-demographic profiles.

Ivan Marinković

Censuses in Serbia often introduce new methodological solutions, making it increasingly challenging to analyse population changes. Methodological differences in the results of the last three censuses (2002, 2011, and 2022) hinder accurate data comparisons and lead to significantly varied interpretations of census data. Assessing net migration in the inter-census period and generating annual postcensal estimates of the total population, which form the basis for calculating demographic indicators, rely on census-derived data. Annual population estimates can deviate significantly from actual values, particularly when the base year (census year) is distant. As a result, estimates for 2021 and 2022 differ by over 180 thousand due to being based on different censuses. Intercensal estimates have not been conducted in Serbia to date, but they can substantially impact the correction of demographic indicators, especially at lower territorial-administrative levels. Intercensal estimates refer to population estimates between two censuses and are deemed more precise than postcensal estimates as they approximate data between two specific points in time. Leveraging census results (2002, 2011, and 2022), vital events in the inter-census period, and internal migration data, annual population figures at the municipal level and the extent of external migration will be computed. These calculations will enable the estimation of population figures and total net migration for all higher territorial-administrative units, starting from the municipal level. Consequently, the fundamental demographic indicators for 2002–2022 will be reevaluated based on the acquired data. The outcomes are expected to reveal the extent to which population estimates were overstated in official reports due to the exclusion of external migration in their computation. This imprecision led to inaccuracies in basic demographic indicators. By rectifying the data, it is anticipated that death rates and fertility levels will slightly surpass the officially published values during the inter-census period. The data obtained from intercensal estimates should demonstrate how the migration component influences population fluctuations at the municipal level.

Hongye An, Arpit Narechania, Emily Wall et al.

Academic literature reviews have traditionally relied on techniques such as keyword searches and accumulation of relevant back-references, using databases like Google Scholar or IEEEXplore. However, both the precision and accuracy of these search techniques is limited by the presence or absence of specific keywords, making literature review akin to searching for needles in a haystack. We present vitaLITy 2, a solution that uses a Large Language Model or LLM-based approach to identify semantically relevant literature in a textual embedding space. We include a corpus of 66,692 papers from 1970-2023 which are searchable through text embeddings created by three language models. vitaLITy 2 contributes a novel Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) architecture and can be interacted with through an LLM with augmented prompts, including summarization of a collection of papers. vitaLITy 2 also provides a chat interface that allow users to perform complex queries without learning any new programming language. This also enables users to take advantage of the knowledge captured in the LLM from its enormous training corpus. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of vitaLITy 2 through two usage scenarios. vitaLITy 2 is available as open-source software at https://vitality-vis.github.io.

Silas Ruhrberg Estévez, Alex Grafton, Lynn Thomson et al.

Neonates in intensive care require continuous monitoring. Current measurement devices are limited for long-term use due to the fragility of newborn skin and the interference of wires with medical care and parental interactions. Camera-based vital sign monitoring has the potential to address these limitations and has become of considerable interest in recent years due to the absence of physical contact between the recording equipment and the neonates, as well as the introduction of low-cost devices. We present a novel system to capture vital signs while offering clinical insights beyond current technologies using a single RGB-D camera. Heart rate and oxygen saturation were measured using colour and infrared signals with mean average errors (MAE) of 7.69 bpm and 3.37%, respectively. Using the depth signals, an MAE of 4.83 breaths per minute was achieved for respiratory rate. Tidal volume measurements were obtained with a MAE of 0.61 mL. Flow-volume loops can also be calculated from camera data, which have applications in respiratory disease diagnosis. Our system demonstrates promising capabilities for neonatal monitoring, augmenting current clinical recording techniques to potentially improve outcomes for neonates.

Javier López-de-la-Cruz, Alexandre N. Oliveira-Sousa

We investigate SIR models with vital dynamics, reinfection, and randomness at the transmission coefficient and recruitment rate. Initially, we conduct an extensive analysis of the autonomous scenario, covering aspects such as local and global well-posedness, the existence and internal structure of attractors, and the presence of gradient dynamics. Subsequently, we explore the implications of small nonautonomous random perturbations, establishing the continuity of attractors and ensuring their topological structural stability. Additionally, we study scenarios in which both the transmission coefficient and the recruitment rate exhibit time-dependent or random behavior. For each scenario, we establish the existence of attractors and delineate conditions that determine whether the disease is eradicated or reaches an endemic state. Finally, we depict numerical simulations to illustrate the theoretical results.

Clinton T. Morgan, J. Kanne, Erik E. Lewis et al.

Background Primary spontaneous pneumomediastinum (PSPM) is a benign condition, but it can be difficult to discriminate from Boerhaave syndrome. The diagnostic difficulty is attributable to a shared constellation of history, signs, and symptoms combined with a poor understanding of the basic vital signs, labs, and diagnostic findings characterizing PSPM. These challenges likely contribute to high resource utilization for diagnosis and management of a benign process. Methods Patients aged 18 years or older with PSPM were identified from our radiology department’s database. A retrospective chart review was performed. Results Exactly 100 patients with PSPM were identified between March 2001 and November 2019. Demographics and histories correlated well with prior studies: mean age (25 years); male predominance (70%); association with cough (34%), asthma (27%), retching or emesis (24%), tobacco abuse (11%), and physical activity (11%); acute chest pain (75%), and dyspnea (57%) as the first and second most frequent symptoms and subcutaneous emphysema (33%) as the most common sign. We provide the first robust data on presenting vital signs and laboratory values of PSPM, showing that tachycardia (31%) and leukocytosis (30%) were common. No pleural effusion was found in the 66 patients who underwent computed tomography (CT) of the chest. We provide the first data on inter-hospital transfer rates (27%). 79% of transfers were due to concern for esophageal perforation. Most patients were admitted (57%), with an average length of stay (LOS) of 2.3 days, and 25% received antibiotics. Conclusions PSPM patients frequently present in their twenties with chest pain, subcutaneous emphysema, tachycardia, and leukocytosis. Approximately 25% have a history of retching or emesis and it is this population that must be discriminated from those with Boerhaave syndrome. An esophagram is rarely indicated and observation alone is appropriate in patients under age 40 with a known precipitating event or risk factors for PSPM (e.g., asthma, smoking) if they have no history of retching or emesis. Fever, pleural effusion, and age over 40 are rare in PSPM and should raise concern for esophageal perforation in a patient with a history of retching, emesis, or both.

L. Naz, Asif Kamal, Adan Kamran et al.

Background Pakistan has an inadequate vital event registration system, leading to fewer than half of all births being registered, and this issue is further exacerbated by systematic recall errors and omission of births. This study aims to evaluate direct and indirect methods of fertility estimation to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Indirect methods are utilized in this study to evaluate the direction and extent of changes in total and age-specific fertility rates, and these findings are compared to direct estimates. The study draws data on livebirths from four waves of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey that took place between 1990 and 2018. To ensure the quality of data, graphical methods and Whipple and Myers indices are employed. Additionally, the Brass Relational Gompertz model was used to analyze the data. Results The Relational Gompertz model revealed that total fertility rates (TFRs) were higher than direct estimates by 0.4 children and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) were higher for all age groups except the oldest. The difference was more significant among younger women aged 15–24, and less so for age groups 29 and above. The gap in estimated fertility between direct and indirect methods decreased with age. Conclusion The indirect method is an invaluable tool in situations where direct measurement of fertility rates is challenging or impossible. By utilizing this method, policymakers can gain important insights into the fertility patterns and trends of a population, which is crucial for making informed decisions on fertility planning.

Milica Kovač Orlandić

Rad tokom studiranja višestruko je značajan, kako za studente tako i za ukupnu dinamiku tržišta rada. Nezavisno od toga da li se posmatra kao vid neformalnog obrazovanja, kao način sticanja praktičnih znanja i vještina ili kao važan izvor prihoda, rad tokom studiranja pozitivno utiče na brži i bezbolniji prelazak iz svijeta obrazovanja u svijet rada. Premda se studenti mogu zapošljavati na osnovu ugovora o radu, oni se mahom angažuju u nekim drugim formama rada koje ne podrazumijevaju zasnivanje radnog odnosa. U pitanju su, međutim, forme koje nijesu adekvatno i dovoljno regulisane, niti su prilagođene mladima kao posebno ranjivoj kategoriji radnika koja se na tržištu rada suočava sa brojnim izazovima vezanim za diskriminaciju, rad na crno i nedovoljnu plaćenost. Cilj je, otuda, ovog rada da ukaže na forme radnog angažovanja studenata, na potrebu njihovog posebnog zakonskog regulisanja i na nužnost određenih aspekata radnopravne zaštite mladih u svim tim slučajevima. Uvođenje određenih radnopravnih elemenata u sve forme radnog angažovanja studenata od suštinskog je značaja za njihovu zaštitu od ekspoloatacije i nedostojanstvenih uslova rada. Ovo posebno kada su u pitanju minimalni radni standardi koji se tiču zaštite na radu, nadoknade za rad, prava na dnevni i nedjeljni odmor, odsustva tokom praznika i prekovremenog rada. Pitanje zaštite i pravovremenog uključivanja mladih na tržište rada značajno je i u kontekstu aktuelnih demografskih kretanja, te traganja za adekvatnim nivoom međugeneracijske solidarnosti. U radu se kao ilustrativan primjer koriste zakonodavstvo i praksa u Crnoj Gori.

Martina Schorn

The depopulation of rural areas has received increasing attention in recent years, both in scientific discourses and in policy-making. One main factor contributing to this rural shrinkage is the out-migration of the rural population. In particular, young and well-educated people have been leaving rural areas and moving to urban agglomerations. While the drivers as well as the consequences of out-migration have been well researched, less is known about measures to counteract youth outmigration as one of the main drivers of depopulation. Based on a comparative case study conducted in four rural regions affected by youth out-migration in Austria and Germany, this paper discusses policy measures that are specifically targeted at influencing young people’s migration aspirations. In addition, the effects of these measures on rural youth migration are analysed. After implementing measures that take the needs of young people into consideration, all four case study regions started to experience a decrease in their negative youth migration balance. This was mainly due to an increase in in-migration, while youth out-migration rates remained stable. However, these developments follow the general trend of rural youth migration in Austria and Germany in recent years. Thus, more research is needed to evaluate the actual impact of youth-oriented measures. This paper introduces the “youth-oriented regional development” approach, and highlights perspectives for future research on policies aimed at mitigating the challenges facing rural regions that are experiencing depopulation.

Eduardo Soares, Emilio Vital Brazil, Karen Fiorela Aquino Gutierrez et al.

We present a novel multimodal language model approach for predicting molecular properties by combining chemical language representation with physicochemical features. Our approach, MULTIMODAL-MOLFORMER, utilizes a causal multistage feature selection method that identifies physicochemical features based on their direct causal effect on a specific target property. These causal features are then integrated with the vector space generated by molecular embeddings from MOLFORMER. In particular, we employ Mordred descriptors as physicochemical features and identify the Markov blanket of the target property, which theoretically contains the most relevant features for accurate prediction. Our results demonstrate a superior performance of our proposed approach compared to existing state-of-the-art algorithms, including the chemical language-based MOLFORMER and graph neural networks, in predicting complex tasks such as biodegradability and PFAS toxicity estimation. Moreover, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our feature selection method in reducing the dimensionality of the Mordred feature space while maintaining or improving the model's performance. Our approach opens up promising avenues for future research in molecular property prediction by harnessing the synergistic potential of both chemical language and physicochemical features, leading to enhanced performance and advancements in the field.

Hilde Orderud, J. Härkönen, Cathrine Tranberg Hårsaker et al.

Floods are a common natural hazard in Bangladesh, and climate change is expected to further increase flooding frequency, magnitude and extent. Pregnant women in flood contexts could face challenges in utilisation of maternal healthcare. The aim of this paper is to analyse associations between flood exposure and the use of maternal healthcare (antenatal care visits, birth assisted by skilled birth attendants, and giving birth in a health facility) in Bangladesh for pregnancies/births between 2004 and 2018. Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data from four surveys in the time period 2007–2018 and data on floods from the Emergency Events Database and the Geocoded Disasters Dataset are analysed using multilevel linear probability models. In line with previous results, we find clear bivariate associations between exposure to flooding and maternal healthcare use. These associations are largely confounded by socioeconomic and demographic variables. In general, exposure to flooding — whether measured as exposure to any floods or severe floods — does not affect maternal healthcare use, and we suggest that the lower usage of maternal healthcare in areas exposed to flooding rather relates to the characteristics of the flood-prone areas and their populations, which also relate to lower maternal healthcare use. However, we find negative associations in some supplementary analyses, which suggest that even if there is no effect of floods on average, specific floods may have negative effects on maternal healthcare use.

Катрин Гусефф

В статье представлены результаты исследования массовых перемещений представителей этнических меньшинств (немцев, поляков, украинцев, евреев) в 1939-1947-х годах в контексте изменения границ Польского государства. Автор подробно рассматривает политические предпосылки, исторические этапы, организационные формы и специфические особенности серии обменов многочисленными представителями этнических и социальных групп населения между СССР, Польшей, Германией и Украиной. Этот процесс может быть охарактеризован как последовательная «демографическая хирургия», «трансплантация» живых социальных существ с испытанием их возможностей по приживанию в инородной среде. Исследование опирается на документированные свидетельства, доступные для исследователей в государственных архивах России, Украины, Польши, Германии. В нем также используются свидетельства, сохранившиеся в памяти непосредственных участников событий того времени, как лиц, принимавших решения, организаторов и пропагандистов репатриационных мероприятий, так и, главным образом, самих вынужденных переселенцев – жертв геополитики того времени, на долю которых выпало десятилетие тяжелейших испытаний как в местах принудительного выселения, так и в местах принудительного вселения.

Elisa Brini, Anna Zamberlan, Paolo Barbieri

<b>Background</b>: The relative importance of a cultural component in the gender division of unpaid labour is still debated. <b>Objective</b>: Drawing on the epidemiological approach to the study of culture, we investigate the cultural component of gender inequality by examining whether gender asymmetries in housework and childcare in families with a migrant background relate to gender equity in the country of origin. <b>Methods</b>: Through multilevel models based on microlevel data (Istat SCIF survey), we examine the extent to which the division of household labour between immigrant partners living in Italy relates to gender equity in their origin country, proxied by the Global Gender Gap Index. We further analyse the changing importance of gender equity in the country of origin at different lengths of stay in the destination country. <b>Conclusions</b>: Immigrants from more (less) gender-equal countries display greater (lower) equality in the division of routine housework and childcare activities. However, gender equity in the origin country loses its importance for couples living in the destination country for a longer time. These findings point to a significant contribution of culture of origin to gender inequality in the intra-couple division of unpaid labour. Yet nonnegligible differences exist between specific housework and childcare tasks and depending on the time spent in the hosting country. <b>Contribution</b>: Our study contributes to the literature on gender inequalities by providing new evidence on the relationship between culture of origin and the division of specific housework and childcare tasks in families with a migrant background.

Trung Le, Eli Shlizerman

Modeling neural population dynamics underlying noisy single-trial spiking activities is essential for relating neural observation and behavior. A recent non-recurrent method - Neural Data Transformers (NDT) - has shown great success in capturing neural dynamics with low inference latency without an explicit dynamical model. However, NDT focuses on modeling the temporal evolution of the population activity while neglecting the rich covariation between individual neurons. In this paper we introduce SpatioTemporal Neural Data Transformer (STNDT), an NDT-based architecture that explicitly models responses of individual neurons in the population across time and space to uncover their underlying firing rates. In addition, we propose a contrastive learning loss that works in accordance with mask modeling objective to further improve the predictive performance. We show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on ensemble level in estimating neural activities across four neural datasets, demonstrating its capability to capture autonomous and non-autonomous dynamics spanning different cortical regions while being completely agnostic to the specific behaviors at hand. Furthermore, STNDT spatial attention mechanism reveals consistently important subsets of neurons that play a vital role in driving the response of the entire population, providing interpretability and key insights into how the population of neurons performs computation.