Hasil untuk "Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand"

John DiNardo, John DiNardo, Nicole M. Fortin et al.

EunJeong Cheon, Do Yeon Shin

As sidewalk delivery robots become increasingly integrated into urban life, this paper begins with a critical provocation: Is robot labor labor? More than a rhetorical question, this inquiry invites closer attention to the social and political arrangements that robot labor entails. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork across two smart-city districts in Seoul, we examine how delivery robot labor is collectively sustained. While robotic actions are often framed as autonomous and efficient, we show that each successful delivery is in fact a distributed sociotechnical achievement--reliant on human labor, regulatory coordination, and social accommodations. We argue that delivery robots do not replace labor but reconfigure it--rendering some forms more visible (robotic performance) while obscuring others (human and institutional support). Unlike industrial robots, delivery robots operate in shared public space, engage everyday passersby, and are embedded in policy and progress narratives. In these spaces, we identify "robot privilege"--humans routinely yielding to robots--and distinct perceptions between casual observers ("cute") and everyday coexisters ("admirable"). We contribute a conceptual reframing of robot labor as a collective assemblage, empirical insights into South Korea's smart-city automation, and a call for HRI to engage more deeply with labor and spatial politics to better theorize public-facing robots.

Yigang Qin, EunJeong Cheon

The HCI community has called for renewed attention to labor issues and the political economy of computing. Yet much work remains in engaging with labor theory to better understand modern work and workers. This article traces the development of Labor Process Theory (LPT) -- from Karl Marx and Harry Braverman to Michael Burawoy and beyond -- and introduces it as an essential yet underutilized resource for structural analysis of work under capitalism and the design of computing systems. We examine HCI literature on labor, investigating focal themes and conceptual, empirical, and design approaches. Drawing from LPT, we offer directions for HCI research and practice: distinguish labor from work, link work practice to value production, study up the management, analyze consent and legitimacy, move beyond the point of production, design alternative institutions, and unnaturalize bourgeois designs. These directions can deepen analyses of tech-mediated workplace regimes, inform critical and normative designs, and strengthen the field's connection to broader political economic critique.

Livia Alfonsi, O. Bandiera, V. Bassi et al.

We design a labor market experiment to compare demand‐ and supply‐side policies to tackle youth unemployment, a key issue in low‐income countries. The experiment tracks 1700 workers and 1500 firms over four years to compare the effect of offering workers either vocational training (VT) or firm‐provided training (FT) for six months in a common setting where youth unemployment is above 60%. Relative to control workers, we find that, averaged over three post‐intervention years, FT and VT workers: (i) enjoy large and similar upticks in sector‐specific skills, (ii) significantly improve their employment rates, and (iii) experience marked improvements in an index of labor market outcomes. These averages, however, mask differences in dynamics: FT gains materialize quickly but fade over time, while VT gains emerge slowly but are long‐lasting, leading VT worker employment and earning profiles to rise above those of FT workers. Estimating a job ladder model of worker search reveals the key reason for this: VT workers receive significantly higher rates of job offers when unemployed, thus hastening their movement back into work. This likely stems from the fact that the skills of VT workers are certified and therefore can be demonstrated to potential employers. Tackling youth unemployment by skilling youth using vocational training pre‐labor market entry therefore appears to be more effective than incentivizing firms through wage subsidies to hire and train young labor market entrants.

Lars Kirkebøen, Marte Rønning

Frafall fra videregående opplæring (VGO) er ikke nødvendigvis varig. Omtrent 35 prosent av alle elever som starter i VGO, slutter uten å ha fullført. 57 prosent av disse (19 prosent av alle elever) kommer tilbake til VGO innen 8 år etter fullført grunnskole. I denne artikkelen benytter vi registerdata fra Statistisk sentralbyrå for å undersøke hva som kjennetegner elever (<24 år) som kommer tilbake til VGO etter å ha sluttet, samt hvordan det går med dem senere i utdanning og arbeidsmarked. Elever som kommer tilbake, har i snitt foreldre med lavere utdanning og inntekt enn elever som ikke har opphold i løpet av VGO. De er også oftere innvandrere, har svakere karakterer fra grunnskolen og er generelt mer utenfor jobb og utdanning som voksne. Når vi sammenligner elever som kommer tilbake og fullfører VGO, med elever som kommer tilbake uten å fullføre, ser vi at tilbakevendende elever som fullfører, har flere likhetstrekk med elever som fullfører uten opphold, enn med tilbakevendende elever som ikke fullfører. De som ikke fullfører etter å ha kommet tilbake, er oftere utenfor utdanning og jobb og har lavere arbeidsinntekt som voksen enn elever som ikke kommer tilbake etter å ha sluttet.

Tianyu Fan

This paper develops a new framework to analyze the incidence of labor market shocks, focusing on automation and artificial intelligence. Central to our theory is the distance-dependent elasticity of substitution (DIDES), where worker mobility between occupations declines with their distance in skill space. Mapping 306 occupations into cognitive, manual, and interpersonal skill dimensions, we estimate a low-dimensional latent skill model that preserves granular substitution patterns. We show that both automation and artificial intelligence cluster within skill-adjacent occupations, constraining employment adjustment and amplifying wage effects. The clustering nature of technologies generates unequal outcomes: 20--50% of labor demand shocks translate to wages (versus 30% under standard models), while mobility recovers only 20\% of losses (versus 30% from standard estimates).

Rintaro Ando

This paper studies the impact of the 2022 Dobbs decision and subsequent state level abortion bans on the labor supply of young women (ages 18-24). Using monthly CPS micro data from January 2021 to December 2023, I exploit cross state variation in post Dobbs abortion policy and estimate Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Triple-Difference (DDD) models. In a simple DiD comparing young women in ban versus protected states, labor force participation in ban states rises by 3.6 percentage points, while participation among young men in the same states falls by 2.9 percentage points, suggesting that the female response is unlikely to be driven by stronger local labor demand. The preferred DDD specification with state-by-month and gender interacted fixed effects implies a 6.6 percentage point increase in labor force participation for young women in ban states relative to young men. School enrollment does not change significantly, whereas employment increases by about 3 percentage points. These results suggest that abortion bans are associated with an immediate increase in young women's labor market attachment, potentially shifting their short run focus toward current earnings rather than human capital accumulation.

Felix Degenhardt

I examine whether the early but temporary availability of low-barrier employment opportunities in the hospitality sector affects the labor market integration of refugees. My identification strategy combines the quasi-exogenous allocation of refugees to Austrian regions with high seasonality in Austria's hospitality sector, where 25% of refugees find initial employment. Exploiting within region, within year variation, I find that receiving labor market access during high seasonal demand increases employment probability initially, with significant employment effects of up to 3 percentage points, or 9% of the mean, in the first months. Employment advantages diminish after the first year, indicating that such early employment opportunities do not serve as a stepping stone. Still, treated refugees have in total earned more in the first three years, with no significant differences in medium-term wages and job quality. One disadvantage of early employment in hospitality is the increased labor market segregation, as treated refugees are more likely to work in industries more typical for refugees and in firms with higher non-Austrian coworker shares.

Л. І. Михайлишин, Ю. І. Коровчук, О. Д. Грушко

The study examines the peculiarities of gender transformations as an instrument of international integration of the Ukrainian labor market in the context of the russian-Ukrainian war. The features of transformations, the pre-war and post-war state of the Ukrainian labor market are identified. The study's findings demonstrate that during the pre-war years, the Ukrainian labor market strongly impacted the international (in particular, European) labor market. With the outbreak of war, this impact increased significantly due to large-scale flows of refugees from the entire country. The authors provide a summary of the objective and forced reasons for the increase in the existing socio-economic factors of migration, among which the following are particularly noticeable destruction of economic facilities, damage to infrastructure, loss of supply of goods, decline in aggregate consumer demand, increased need for security, additional social protection, rehabilitation, and education. It is proved that the labor market of Ukraine in the conditions of war has become a donor of the skilled and highly productive workforce for the EU countries, resulting in its transformation from a model of labor excess to a model of labor deficit. It is noted that mass migration due to the abovementioned reasons was not the only factor that caused significant changes in the Ukrainian labor market. In addition, the negative trends in the development of Ukraine's labor market and the resulting decline in its integration potential were formed exclusively by military factors: the occupation of millions of Ukrainians, the mobilization of the men's population with subsequent recruitment into the Armed Forces or volunteering, and the increase in mortality among the working-age military and civilians. As a result, a significant reduction in the offer of workforce in the Ukrainian labor market has been noted, and given the urgency of restoring this resource, the negative impact of these changes will be observed in the Ukrainian economy for a long period. Based on these conditions, the author substantiates the need to develop measures and implement several necessary reforms aimed at overcoming gender imbalances in various areas of employment in Ukrainian society. Such measures will contribute to stabilizing the domestic labor market for the post-war reconstruction of the country and will ensure the preservation of the identity of Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation.

Roberto Espinoza

Aníbal Quijano ha dejado aportes sustanciales sobre teorías, apuestas y *cuestiones abiertas* para las ciencias sociales, pero, sobre todo, para los *movimientos de la sociedad* y la búsque de *horizontes de sentido alternativos*.  La actitud de insumiso vital, en la teoría y en la práctica, que, con acierto, mencionara Danilo Quijano, sintetiza mucho de su legado: insumisión contra todo tipo de poder y de opresiones, del color político o ideológico que fuese. Uno de sus textos clásicos es “Colonialidade do poder, eurocentrismo e América Latina, publicado en portugués por CLACSO - Consejo Latinoamericanos de Ciencias Sociales, en 2005, y que adjuntamos a los lectores de la Revista Trabalho Necessário (TN 47).  

Rosana de Fátima Silveira Jammal Padilha

A síntese aqui apresentada é resultado da trajetória de pesquisa realizada no Doutorado em Tecnologia e Sociedade, na Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná, sob orientação do professor Domingos Leite Lima Filho. O trabalho de investigação junto a um Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia nasce a partir da minha inserção como docente do ensino Básico, Técnico e Tecnológico, acompanhamento dos processos de desenvolvimento do Projeto Político Pedagógico, e das dinâmicas vivenciadas no espaço do campus, no qual fui inserida como docente.

Maiken Skovrider Aaskoven, Jørgen T. Lauridsen, Trine Kjær

Abstract Publicly funded pension systems are facing the challenge of remaining financially sustainable without lowering pensions. Raising the statutory retirement age gradually in line with the increase in life expectancy has been a key measure to solve the problem. The implicit assumption is that the additional years of life are lived in good health, or as a minimum that health status is compatible with work. However, some individuals may not have the ability to work. Furthermore, a uniform retirement age ignores the different exposures to morbidity and mortality risks across social groups. Consequently, it is important to examine whether the health of older individuals will allow them to continue working and whether there is significant heterogeneity in the ability to work. Combining the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with data from the Danish registers enables us to create a composite health index that includes an extensive range of health indicators. Utilising the health capacity to work approach, we estimate the health capacity to work among Danes aged 55 and above. We divide health capacity into physical and mental health. We investigate heterogeneity in health capacity across educational and occupational attainment. Substantial additional work capacity is found for older Danes. Depending on the type of health index applied, the health capacrk varies. There is evidence of a socio-economic gradient in work capacity. Results thereby show that policies that intend to utilise the additional work capacity should consider heterogeneity in health. Highlights We provide new evidence of the health capacity work in Denmark. The combination of survey and register data allow for comprehensive health indices. There is substantial additional health capacity to work. There is variation across health indices. There is variation across educational and occupational attainment.

Zhuoning Guo, Hao Liu, Le Zhang et al.

Labor market forecasting on talent demand and supply is essential for business management and economic development. With accurate and timely forecasts, employers can adapt their recruitment strategies to align with the evolving labor market, and employees can have proactive career path planning according to future demand and supply. However, previous studies ignore the interconnection between demand-supply sequences among different companies and positions for predicting variations. Moreover, companies are reluctant to share their private human resource data for global labor market analysis due to concerns over jeopardizing competitive advantage, security threats, and potential ethical or legal violations. To this end, in this paper, we formulate the Federated Labor Market Forecasting (FedLMF) problem and propose a Meta-personalized Convergence-aware Clustered Federated Learning (MPCAC-FL) framework to provide accurate and timely collaborative talent demand and supply prediction in a privacy-preserving way. First, we design a graph-based sequential model to capture the inherent correlation between demand and supply sequences and company-position pairs. Second, we adopt meta-learning techniques to learn effective initial model parameters that can be shared across companies, allowing personalized models to be optimized for forecasting company-specific demand and supply, even when companies have heterogeneous data. Third, we devise a Convergence-aware Clustering algorithm to dynamically divide companies into groups according to model similarity and apply federated aggregation in each group. The heterogeneity can be alleviated for more stable convergence and better performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MPCAC-FL outperforms compared baselines on three real-world datasets and achieves over 97% of the state-of-the-art model, i.e., DH-GEM, without exposing private company data.

Hugo Sant'Anna

This paper examines the labor market impacts of the 2015 Mariana Dam disaster in Brazil. It contrasts two theoretical models: an urban spatial equilibrium model and a factor of production model, with diverging perspectives on environmental influences on labor outcomes. Utilizing rich national administrative and spatial data, the study reveals that the unusual environmental alteration, with minimal human capital loss, primarily affected outcomes via the factor of production channel. Nevertheless, spatial equilibrium dynamics are discernible within certain market segments. This research contributes to the growing literature on environmental changes and its economic consequences.

Marjan Petreski, Stefan Tanevski, Alejandro D. Jacobo

Using a Taylor rule amended with official reserves movements, we derive country-specific monetary shocks and employ a local projections-estimator for tracking gender-disaggregated labor-market responses in 99 developing economies from 2009 to 2021. Results show that women experience more negative post-shock employment responses than men, contributing to a deepening of the gender gaps on the labor market. After the shock, women leave the labor market more so than men, which results in an apparently intact or even improved unemployment outcome for women. We find limited evidence of sector-specific reaction to interest rates. Additionally, we identify an intense worsening of women-s position on the labor market in high-growth environments as well under monetary policy tightening. Developing Asia and Latin America experience the most significant detrimental effects on women's employment, Africa exhibits a slower manifestation of the monetary shocks-impact and developing Europe shows the mildest effects.

Povilas Lastauskas, Julius Stakėnas

Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010 -- and extending to 17 countries up to 2020 -- we analyze three labor market policies: replacement rates, spending on active labor market policies (ALMPs), and employment protection. We find that these policies deliver different macroeconomic outcomes in low- and high-interest rate environments. In particular, ALMPs reduce unemployment if implemented under a loose monetary policy but not otherwise, whereas higher employment protection delivers expansionary effects under a tight monetary policy. These findings highlight that the effectiveness of labor market policies is significantly influenced by the monetary policy environment, emphasizing the need for coordinated policy design. Methodologically, we contribute by proposing to average local projections using Mallow's $C_{p}$ criterion, allowing for inferences that are robust to mis-specification and accommodate non-linearities.

Stefania Albanesi, Jiyeon Kim

The economic crisis associated with the emergence of the novel corona virus is unlike standard recessions. Demand for workers in high contact and inflexible service occupations has declined, while parental supply of labor has been reduced by lack of access to reliable child care and in-person schooling options. This has led to a substantial and persistent drop in employment and labor force participation for women, who are typically less affected by recessions than men. We examine real time data on employment, unemployment, labor force participation and gross job flows to document the gendered impact of the pandemic. We also discuss the potential long-term implications of this crisis, including the role of automation in depressing the recovery of employment for the worst hit service occupations.

COJOCARU ANDREI VALENTIN, NACHE CIMPOERU MARIA, CĂLIN OANA ALEXANDRA

The ongoing evolution and rapid transformations occurring in the labor market, influenced by economic progress, are leading to the emergence of novel job roles and substantial modifications in conventional occupations. These changes underscore the importance of adapting educational systems to anticipate the future demands of the labor market, ensuring seamless transitions for individuals from educational institutions to the workforce. Education and employment are interdependent. On one hand, the European Union (EU) and its member states require an effective education system that equips individuals with skills aligned with labor market demands. However, it is also imperative to provide a proficient and inventive workforce market that amplifies efficiency while fostering individual growth and societal integration within the population. The key dimensions frequently analyzed to characterize the state of the education market and evaluate its implications on the labor market include the demand for education (participation rates in education), characteristics of the education supply (financial aid for tertiary education), and outcomes of the educational system (early school leavers, tertiary graduates, youth not in employment, education, or training). To gather relevant information, the statistical database Eurostat, Tempo-online (National Institute of Statistics), as well as data provided by the European Commission, the Council of the Union, and the European Parliament were utilized.

Carlos Brandão

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B. N. Kausik

Labor share, the fraction of economic output accrued as wages, is inexplicably declining in industrialized countries. Whilst numerous prior works attempt to explain the decline via economic factors, our novel approach links the decline to biological factors. Specifically, we propose a theoretical macroeconomic model where labor share reflects a dynamic equilibrium between the workforce automating existing outputs, and consumers demanding new output variants that require human labor. Industrialization leads to an aging population, and while cognitive performance is stable in the working years it drops sharply thereafter. Consequently, the declining cognitive performance of aging consumers reduces the demand for new output variants, leading to a decline in labor share. Our model expresses labor share as an algebraic function of median age, and is validated with surprising accuracy on historical data across industrialized economies via non-linear stochastic regression.