This paper develops a taxonomy of expert perspectives on the risks and likely consequences of artificial intelligence, with particular focus on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). Drawing from primary sources, we identify three predominant doctrines: (1) The dominance doctrine, which predicts that the first actor to create sufficiently advanced AI will attain overwhelming strategic superiority sufficient to cheaply neutralize its opponents' defenses; (2) The extinction doctrine, which anticipates that humanity will likely lose control of ASI, leading to the extinction of the human species or its permanent disempowerment; (3) The replacement doctrine, which forecasts that AI will automate a large share of tasks currently performed by humans, but will not be so transformative as to fundamentally reshape or bring an end to human civilization. We examine the assumptions and arguments underlying each doctrine, including expectations around the pace of AI progress and the feasibility of maintaining advanced AI under human control. While the boundaries between doctrines are sometimes porous and many experts hedge across them, this taxonomy clarifies the core axes of disagreement over the anticipated scale and nature of the consequences of AI development.
Vidya Venkatesan, Aomawa L. Shields, Russell Deitrick
et al.
Eccentric planets may spend a significant portion of their orbits at large distances from their host stars, where low temperatures can cause atmospheric CO2 to condense out onto the surface, similar to the polar ice caps on Mars. The radiative effects on the climates of these planets throughout their orbits would depend on the wavelength-dependent albedo of surface CO2 ice that may accumulate at or near apoastron and vary according to the spectral energy distribution of the host star. To explore these possible effects, we incorporated a CO2 ice-albedo parameterization into a one-dimensional energy balance climate model. With the inclusion of this parameterization, our simulations demonstrated that F-dwarf planets require 29% more orbit-averaged flux to thaw out of global water ice cover compared with simulations that solely use a traditional pure water ice-albedo parameterization. When no eccentricity is assumed, and host stars are varied, F-dwarf planets with higher bond albedos relative to their M-dwarf planet counterparts require 30% more orbit-averaged flux to exit a water snowball state. Additionally, the intense heat experienced at periastron aids eccentric planets in exiting a snowball state with a smaller increase in instellation compared with planets on circular orbits; this enables eccentric planets to exhibit warmer conditions along a broad range of instellation. This study emphasizes the significance of incorporating an albedo parameterization for the formation of CO2 ice into climate models to accurately assess the habitability of eccentric planets, as we show that, even at moderate eccentricities, planets with Earth-like atmospheres can reach surface temperatures cold enough for the condensation of CO2 onto their surfaces, as can planets receiving low amounts of instellation on circular orbits.
The early history of string theory is marked by a shift from strong interaction physics to quantum gravity. The first string models and associated theoretical framework were formulated in the late 1960s and early 1970s in the context of the S-matrix program for the strong interactions. In the mid-1970s, the models were reinterpreted as a potential theory unifying the four fundamental forces. This paper provides a historical analysis of how string theory was developed out of S-matrix physics, aiming to clarify how modern string theory, as a theory detached from experimental data, grew out of an S-matrix program that was strongly dependent upon observable quantities. Surprisingly, the theoretical practice of physicists already turned away from experiment before string theory was recast as a potential unified quantum gravity theory. With the formulation of dual resonance models (the "hadronic string theory"), physicists were able to determine almost all of the models' parameters on the basis of theoretical reasoning. It was this commitment to "non-arbitrariness", i.e., a lack of free parameters in the theory, that initially drove string theorists away from experimental input, and not the practical inaccessibility of experimental data in the context of quantum gravity physics. This is an important observation when assessing the role of experimental data in string theory.
This paper aims to incorporate the notion of quantifier-free formulas modulo a first-order theory and the stratification of formulas by quantifier alternation depth modulo a first-order theory into the algebraic treatment of classical first-order logic. The set of quantifier-free formulas modulo a theory is axiomatized by what we call a quantifier-free fragment of a Boolean doctrine with quantifiers. Rather than being an intrinsic notion, a quantifier-free fragment is an additional structure on a Boolean doctrine with quantifiers. Under a smallness assumption, the structures occurring as quantifier-free fragments of some Boolean doctrine with quantifiers are precisely the Boolean doctrines (without quantifiers). In particular, every Boolean doctrine over a small category is a quantifier-free fragment of its quantifier completion. Furthermore, the sequences obtained by stratifying an algebra of formulas by quantifier alternation depth modulo a theory are axiomatized by what we call QA-stratified Boolean doctrines. While quantifier-free fragments are defined in relation to an "ambient" Boolean doctrine with quantifiers, a QA-stratified Boolean doctrine requires no such ambient doctrine, and it consists of a sequence of Boolean doctrines (without quantifiers) with connecting axioms. QA-stratified Boolean doctrines are in one-to-one correspondence with pairs consisting of a Boolean doctrine with quantifiers and a quantifier-free fragment of it.
Lawvere's generalised the notion of complete metric space to the field of enriched categories: an enriched category is said to be Cauchy-complete if every left adjoint bimodule into it is represented by an enriched functor. Looking at this definition from a logical standpoint, regarding bimodules as an abstraction of relations and functors as an abstraction of functions, Cauchy-completeness resembles a formulation of the rule of unique choice. In this paper, we make this analogy precise, using the language of relational doctrines, a categorical tool that provides a functorial description of the calculus of relations, in the same way Lawvere's hyperdoctrines give a functorial description of predicate logic. Given a relational doctrine, we define Cauchy-complete objects as those objects of the domain category satisfying the rule of unique choice. Then, we present a universal construction that completes a relational doctrine with the rule of unique choice, that is, producing a new relational doctrine where all objects are Cauchy-complete. We also introduce relational doctrines with singleton objects and show that these have the minimal structure needed to build the reflector of the full subcategory of its domain on Cauchy-complete objects. The main result is that this reflector exists if and only if the relational doctrine has singleton objects and this happens if and only if its restriction to Cauchy-complete objects is equivalent to its completion with the rule of unique choice. We support our results with many examples, also falling outside the scope of standard doctrines, such as complete metric spaces, Banach spaces and compact Hausdorff spaces in the general context of monoidal topology, which are all shown to be Cauchy-complete objects for appropriate relational doctrines.
Not only motivated by the fact that the publication of the GAFT first appeared 60 years ago in print we reconstruct its history and so show that it is no exaggeration to claim that it has appeared already 75 years ago!
In this work, we fill the gap between the elementary quotient completion introduced by Maietti and Rosolini and the exact completion of a category with weak finite limits, as described by Carboni and Vitale. To achieve this, we generalize Lawvere's elementary doctrines to apply to categories with weak finite products, referring to these structures as biased elementary doctrines. We present two main constructions: the first, called strictification, produces an elementary doctrine from a biased one, while the second is an extension of the elementary quotient completion that generalizes the exact completion of a category with weak finite limits, even when weak finite products are involved.
Andrii Voshchepynets, Oleksiy Agapitov, Lynn Wilson
et al.
We present the results of processing the effects of the powerful Gamma Ray Burst GRB221009A captured by the charged particle detectors (electrostatic analyzers and solid-state detectors) onboard spacecraft at different points in the heliosphere on October 9, 2022. To follow the GRB221009A propagation through the heliosphere we used the electron and proton flux measurements from solar missions Solar Orbiter and STEREO-A; Earth magnetosphere and the solar wind missions THEMIS and Wind; meteorological satellites POES15, POES19, MetOp3; and MAVEN - a NASA mission orbiting Mars. GRB221009A had a structure of four bursts: less intense Pulse 1 - the triggering impulse - was detected by gamma-ray observatories at 131659 UT (near the Earth); the most intense Pulses 2 and 3 were detected on board all the spacecraft from the list, and Pulse 4 detected in more than 500 s after Pulse 1. Due to their different scientific objectives, the spacecraft, which data was used in this study, were separated by more than 1 AU (Solar Orbiter and MAVEN). This enabled tracking GRB221009A as it was propagating across the heliosphere. STEREO-A was the first to register Pulse 2 and 3 of the GRB, almost 100 seconds before their detection by spacecraft in the vicinity of Earth. MAVEN detected GRB221009A Pulses 2, 3, and 4 at the orbit of Mars about 237 seconds after their detection near Earth. By processing the time delays observed we show that the source location of the GRB221009A was at RA 288.5 degrees, Dec 18.5 degrees (J2000) with an error cone of 2 degrees
From the urbanists' perspective, the everyday experience of young people, as an underrepresented group in the design of public spaces, includes tactics they use to challenge the strategies which rule over urban spaces. In this regard, youth led social movements are a set of collective tactics which groups of young people use to resist power structures. Social informational streams have revolutionized the way youth organize and mobilize for social movements throughout the world, especially in urban areas. However, just like public spaces, these algorithm based platforms have been developed with a great power imbalance between the developers and users which results in the creation of non inclusive social informational streams for young activists. Social activism grows agency and confidence in youth which is critical to their development. This paper employs a youth centric lens, which is used in designing public spaces, for designing algorithmic spaces that can improve bottom up youth led movements. By reviewing the structure of these spaces and how young people interact with these structures in the different cultural contexts of Iran and the US, we propose a humanistic approach to designing social informational streams which can enhance youth activism.
Este trabajo responde al interés por conocer el escenario sobre el que se desarrolló la deforestación del territorio costarricense en la primera mitad del siglo XX. En este sentido, se indaga en la dinámica propia de la deforestación; pero también en las lógicas discursivas, los matices y las contradicciones que se podían advertir no solo en las políticas estatales, sino en el discurso mismo de la sociedad civil preocupada por la explotación de los recursos. De este escenario se logra concluir que, durante los primeros 50 años del siglo XX, la sociedad costarricense se debatía entre la incertidumbre de los efectos que tenía la deforestación, la necesidad de exportar recursos naturales como una forma de contribuir al desarrollo nacional y la incipiente idea de que se podían conservar bosques no solo para proteger suelos y aguas, sino porque también constituían una fuente de ingresos futuros mediante el turismo.
Este artículo analiza el tratamiento dado por Briceida Cuevas Cob al sol y la luna como marcadores temporales en la vida cotidiana y personajes antropomorfizados en el aspecto mitológico. Para ello, primero se realiza un preámbulo sobre literatura indígena y maya peninsular. En seguida, se hará una discusión sobre el tiempo y la teoría-praxis de la territorialidad indígena, que conduce a una reflexión sobre la memoria. Luego, en la poesía de Cuevas Cob, se tratará del camino de los dos astros celestiales, del paso del tiempo y de la constitución de la memoria de la vida cotidiana. Se recurrirá al Popol Vuh para comprender la existencia del sol y la luna actuales como principio cosmológico maya. Además, en el trabajo de Cuevas Cob se verá cómo esos astros adquieren características distintas en términos de cuerpo y agencia humana. Finalmente, haremos algunas consideraciones finales sobre la memoria espaciotemporal en la poesía de Cuevas Cob.
El propósito de este número ha sido reunir un conjunto de reflexiones preparadas por especialistas, nacionales e internacionales, sobre la historia pasada y reciente de distintos pueblos indígenas latinoamericanos. Los once textos aquí reunidos fueron elaborados a partir de una rica variedad de enfoques, periodicidades, fuentes documentales y perspectivas analíticas, que dan cuenta de la persistencia de problemas comunes y estructurales tales como el racismo, el despojo de territorios, patrimonios y saberes; también, de políticas públicas limitadas e incluso fallidas que en gran medida explican por qué la violencia estructural se encuentra tan arraiga en los Estados nacionales de nuestra región. De igual forma, el número deja constancia del poder de agencia de estos pueblos, de la riqueza contenida en la oralidad indígena, en sus lenguas, en su poesía, en sus medios de comunicación y en vivencias comunitarias que resisten ante la lógica del capital depredador. Así, la Revista de Historia de Universidad Nacional (UNA) pretende contribuir a un debate tan necesario como urgente de cara a la conmemoración del Bicentenario de la Independencia de Centroamérica.
Filippo Bonchi, Alessio Santamaria, Jens Seeber
et al.
We study the relationship between cartesian bicategories and a specialisation of Lawvere's hyperdoctrines, namely elementary existential doctrines. Both provide different ways of abstracting the structural properties of logical systems: the former in algebraic terms based on a string diagrammatic calculus, the latter in universal terms using the fundamental notion of adjoint functor. We prove that these two approaches are related by an adjunction, which can be strengthened to an equivalence by imposing further constraints on doctrines.
Doctrines are categorical structures very apt to study logics of different nature within a unified environment: the 2-category Dtn of doctrines. Modal interior operators are characterised as particular adjoints in the 2-category Dtn. We show that they can be constructed from comonads in Dtn as well as from adjunctions in it, and the two constructions compare. Finally we show the amount of information lost in the passage from a comonad, or from an adjunction, to the modal interior operator. The basis for the present work is provided by some seminal work of John Power.
We define and study LNL polycategories, which abstract the judgmental structure of classical linear logic with exponentials. Many existing structures can be represented as LNL polycategories, including LNL adjunctions, linear exponential comonads, LNL multicategories, IL-indexed categories, linearly distributive categories with storage, commutative and strong monads, CBPV-structures, models of polarized calculi, Freyd-categories, and skew multicategories, as well as ordinary cartesian, symmetric, and planar multicategories and monoidal categories, symmetric polycategories, and linearly distributive and *-autonomous categories. To study such classes of structures uniformly, we define a notion of LNL doctrine, such that each of these classes of structures can be identified with the algebras for some such doctrine. We show that free algebras for LNL doctrines can be presented by a sequent calculus, and that every morphism of doctrines induces an adjunction between their 2-categories of algebras.
String theorists are certain that they are practicing physicists. Yet, some of their recent critics deny this. This paper argues that this conflict is really about who holds authority in making rational judgment in theoretical physics. At bottom, the conflict centers on the question: who is a proper physicist? To illustrate and understand the differing opinions about proper practice and identity, we discuss different appreciations of epistemic virtues and explanation among string theorists and their critics, and how these have been sourced in accounts of Einstein's biography. Just as Einstein is claimed by both sides, historiography offers examples of both successful and unsuccessful non-empirical science. History of science also teaches that times of conflict are often times of innovation, in which novel scholarly identities may come into being. At the same time, since the contributions of Thomas Kuhn historians have developed a critical attitude towards formal attempts and methodological recipes for epistemic demarcation and justification of scientific practice. These are now, however, being considered in the debate on non-empirical physics.
La Iglesia católica y las juventudes protagonizaron muchos de los escenarios globales durante la Guerra Fría. Las páginas siguientes conjugan ambas temáticas, para analizar el interés transnacional del catolicismo por las juventudes entre las décadas de 1960 y 1980. Para hacerlo, inicialmente se analizan los discursos oficiales de esta institución global y se estudia el concepto político de juventud que ensayó esa religión durante el período en estudio. Posteriormente, se analiza cómo se tradujo el interés por la juventud en América Latina y se presentan las estrategias de las jerarquías católicas para agrupar a las juventudes. Al final, se establece una comparación con el caso costarricense, donde los discursos globales y latinoamericanos sobre las juventudes católicas fueron apropiados y adaptados a un país que buscaba representar a sus jóvenes como un sector aislado de la región centroamericana.
In 1782 José Monteiro da Rocha, astronomer and professor of the University of Coimbra, presented in a public session of the Royal Academy of Sciences of Lisbon a memoir on the problem of the determination of the comets' orbits. Only in 1799, the "Determinação das Orbitas dos Cometas" (Determination of the orbits of comets) would be published in the Academy's memoires. In that work, Monteiro da Rocha presents a method for solving the problem of the determination of the parabolic orbit of a comet from three observations. Monteiro da Rocha's method is essentially the same method proposed by Olbers and published under von Zach's sponsorship two years before, in 1797. To have been written and published in Portuguese was certainly a hindrance for its dissemination among the international astronomical community. In this article, we intend to present Monteiro da Rocha's method and trying to see to what extent Gomes Teixeira's assertion (Teixeira 1934) that Monteiro da Rocha and Olbers must figure together in the history of astronomy, as the first inventors of a practical and easy method for the determination of parabolic orbits of comets, is justified.