History state formalism for time series with application to finance
F. Lomoc, N. Canosa, A. P. Boette
et al.
We present a method for analyzing general time series by employing the history state formalism of quantum mechanics. This formalism allows us to describe a complete evolution based on a single quantum state, the history state, which simultaneously includes -also as a quantum system- the reference clock. It naturally leads to the concept of system-time entanglement, with the ensuing entanglement entropy constituting a measure of the effective number of distinguishable states visited in the history. Through a quantum coherent state embedding of the time series data, it is then possible to associate a quantum history state to the series. The gaussian overlap between these coherent states provides thus a smooth measure of distinguishability between the series data. The eigenvalues of the corresponding overlap matrix determine in fact the entanglement spectrum and entropy of the history state, which provide a rigorous characterization of the evolution. As illustration, the formalism is applied to typical financial time-series data. Through the entanglement entropy and spectrum, different evolution regimes can be identified. Entanglement based volatility indicators are also derived, and compared with standard volatility measures.
Totalitarianism in times of Austerity : dystopian representations of power in contemporary Greek novels
Petros Marazopoulos
In my paper, I discuss the Greek literary responses to the phenomenon of the economic crisis that erupted in 2008. Dystopian narratives appear to be a popular narrative framework for authors dealing with the economic crisis during the decade of 2010. The purpose of this article is to examine contemporary Greek literary texts that represent societies under economic crisis and were written after the recent recession. Greek authors often used dystopian narratives to depict the relationship between economic politics followed by the European Union, the world system and authoritarianism. These literary works reflect the authors' experiences of the concurrent political and economic reality, serving both as literary responses to the economic system as well as critique to such systems. In addition, the literary texts under examination raise concerns regarding the growing power of economic institutions and their interaction with political power. Greek authors oft en construct claustrophobic narrative structures, to explore themes such as the erosion of individuality, pervasive state surveillance and escalating oppression. In that sense, I explore literary representations of "Economy", "Power", "Europe" and "Work" in times of austerity, discussing them in the wider context of dystopian fiction and the theory of totalitarianism.
History of Greece, Translating and interpreting
On the Footsteps of Active Faults from the Saronic Gulf to the Eastern Corinth Gulf: Application of Tomographic Inversion Using Recent Seismic Activity
Andreas Karakonstantis, Filippos Vallianatos
This study examines the body-wave velocity structure of Attica, Greece. The region is located between two major rifts, the Gulf of Corinth and the Euboekos Gulf, and has experienced significant earthquakes throughout history. The distribution of seismic activity in the area necessitates a thorough investigation of geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities, to reveal the extent of significant fault zones or the presence of potential hidden faults. This case study utilized over 3000 revised events to conduct a local earthquake tomography (LET). P- and S-wave travel-time data were analyzed to explore small- to medium-scale (~10 km) anomalies that could be linked to local neotectonic structures. The study presents a detailed 3-D seismic velocity structure for Attica and its adjacent regions. The results of the study revealed strong lateral body-wave velocity anomalies in the upper crust were related to activated faults and that a significant portion of the observed seismicity is concentrated near the sites of the 1999 and 2019 events.
Technology, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
A History Equivalence Algorithm for Dynamic Process Migration
Gargi Bakshi, Rushikesh K. Joshi
Dynamic changes in processes necessitate the notion of state equivalence between the old and new workflows. In several cases, the history of the workflow to be migrated provides sufficient context for a meaningful migration. In this paper, we present an algorithm to find the equivalence mapping for states from the old workflow to the new one using a trail-based consistency model called history equivalence. The algorithm finds history equivalent mappings for all migratable states in the reachability graph of the process under migration. It also reports all non-migratable states that fall in the change region for a given pair of old and new Petri Nets. The paper presents the algorithm, its working, and an intuitive proof. The working is demonstrated through a couple of illustrations.
Refactoring-aware Block Tracking in Commit History
Mohammed Tayeeb Hasan, Nikolaos Tsantalis, Pouria Alikhanifard
Tracking statements in the commit history of a project is in many cases useful for supporting various software maintenance, comprehension, and evolution tasks. A high level of accuracy can facilitate the adoption of code tracking tools by developers and researchers. To this end, we propose CodeTracker, a refactoring-aware tool that can generate the commit change history for code blocks. To evaluate its accuracy, we created an oracle with the change history of 1,280 code blocks found within 200 methods from 20 popular open-source project repositories. Moreover, we created a baseline based on the current state-of-the-art Abstract Syntax Tree diff tool, namely GumTree 3.0, in order to compare the accuracy and execution time. Our experiments have shown that CodeTracker has a considerably higher precision/recall and faster execution time than the GumTree-based baseline, and can extract the complete change history of a code block with a precision and recall of 99.5% within 3.6 seconds on average.
Patterns and factors associated with pneumococcal vaccination in a prospective cohort of 1,697 patients with rheumatoid arthritis
Konstantinos Thomas, Argyro Lazarini, Evripidis Kaltsonoudis
et al.
IntroductionPatients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk for serious infections. Pneumococcal vaccination is among the most important preventive measures, however, vaccine uptake is suboptimal. We explored the rate and factors associated with pneumococcal vaccination in a contemporary RA cohort.Materials and methodsMulti-center, prospective, RA cohort study in Greece. Patient and disease characteristics and influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations were documented at baseline and 3 years later.ResultsOne thousand six hundred and ninety-seven patients were included and 34.5% had already received at least one pneumococcal vaccine at baseline. Among 1,111 non-vaccinated patients, 40.1% received pneumococcal vaccination during follow-up, increasing the vaccine coverage to 60.8%. By multivariate analysis, positive predictors for pneumococcal vaccination included prescription of influenza vaccine (OR = 33.35, 95% CI: 18.58–59.85), history of cancer (OR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.09–5.06), bDMARD use (OR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.29–2.65), seropositivity (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.05–2.05), and high disease activity (DAS28-ESR, OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.17–1.51). Male sex (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.43–0.99) was a negative predictor for pneumococcal vaccination during follow-up.DiscussionDespite increasing rates of pneumococcal vaccine coverage, 40% of RA patients remain unvaccinated. Severe disease, bDMARD use, comorbidities, and more importantly flu vaccination were the most significant factors associated with pneumococcal vaccination, emphasizing the currently unmet need for cultivating a “vaccination culture” in RA patients.
Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications.
Sturt W Manning
The historical relevance of the Thera (Santorini) volcanic eruption is unclear because of major dating uncertainty. Long placed ~1500 BCE and during the Egyptian New Kingdom (starts ~1565-1540 BCE) by archaeologists, 14C pointed to dates ≥50-100 years earlier during the preceding Second Intermediate Period. Several decades of debate have followed with no clear resolution of the problem-despite wide recognition that this uncertainty undermines an ability to synchronize the civilizations of the eastern Mediterranean in the mid-second millennium BCE and write wider history. Recent work permits substantial progress. Volcanic CO2 was often blamed for the discrepancy. However, comparison of 14C dates directly associated with the eruption from contemporary Aegean contexts-both on and remote from Thera-can now remove this caveat. In turn, using Bayesian analysis, a revised and substantially refined date range for the Thera eruption can be determined, both through the integration of the large 14C dataset relevant to the Thera eruption with the local stratigraphic sequence on Thera immediately prior to the eruption, and in conjunction with the wider stratigraphically-defined Aegean archaeological sequence from before to after the eruption. This enables a robust high-resolution dating for the eruption ~1606-1589 BCE (68.3% probability), ~1609-1560 BCE (95.4% probability). This dating clarifies long-disputed synchronizations between Aegean and East Mediterranean cultures, placing the eruption during the earlier and very different Second Intermediate Period with its Canaanite-Levantine dominated world-system. This gives an importantly altered cultural and historical context for the New Palace Period on Crete and the contemporary Shaft Grave era in southern Greece. In addition, the revised dating, and a current absence of southern Aegean chronological data placed soon afterwards, highlights a period of likely devastating regional eruption impact in the earlier-mid 16th century BCE southern Aegean.
Less is More: Learning to Refine Dialogue History for Personalized Dialogue Generation
Hanxun Zhong, Zhicheng Dou, Yutao Zhu
et al.
Personalized dialogue systems explore the problem of generating responses that are consistent with the user's personality, which has raised much attention in recent years. Existing personalized dialogue systems have tried to extract user profiles from dialogue history to guide personalized response generation. Since the dialogue history is usually long and noisy, most existing methods truncate the dialogue history to model the user's personality. Such methods can generate some personalized responses, but a large part of dialogue history is wasted, leading to sub-optimal performance of personalized response generation. In this work, we propose to refine the user dialogue history on a large scale, based on which we can handle more dialogue history and obtain more abundant and accurate persona information. Specifically, we design an MSP model which consists of three personal information refiners and a personalized response generator. With these multi-level refiners, we can sparsely extract the most valuable information (tokens) from the dialogue history and leverage other similar users' data to enhance personalization. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model in generating more informative and personalized responses.
The Use of Quantile Methods in Economic History
Damian Clarke, Manuel Llorca Jaña, Daniel Pailañir
Quantile regression and quantile treatment effect methods are powerful econometric tools for considering economic impacts of events or variables of interest beyond the mean. The use of quantile methods allows for an examination of impacts of some independent variable over the entire distribution of continuous dependent variables. Measurement in many quantative settings in economic history have as a key input continuous outcome variables of interest. Among many other cases, human height and demographics, economic growth, earnings and wages, and crop production are generally recorded as continuous measures, and are collected and studied by economic historians. In this paper we describe and discuss the broad utility of quantile regression for use in research in economic history, review recent quantitive literature in the field, and provide an illustrative example of the use of these methods based on 20,000 records of human height measured across 50-plus years in the 19th and 20th centuries. We suggest that there is considerably more room in the literature on economic history to convincingly and productively apply quantile regression methods.
Militant Democracy and Fundamental Rights, I
K. Loewenstein
Fascism a World Movement. Fascism is no longer an isolated incident in the individual history of a few countries. It has developed into a universal movement which in its seemingly irresistible surge is comparable to the rising of European liberalism against absolutism after the French Revolution. In one form or another, it covers today more areas and peoples in Europe and elsewhere than are still faithful to constitutional government. Fascism's pattern of political organization presents a variety of shades. One-party-controlled dictatorships rule outright in Italy, Germany, Turkey, and, if Franco wins, also Spain. The so-called “authoritarian” states may be classified as belonging to the one-party or multiple-party type. To the one-party authoritarian group, without genuine representative institutions, adhere at present Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, and Portugal; while Hungary, Rumania, Yugoslavia, Latvia, and Lithuania may be classed together as authoritarian states of the multiple-party type, with a semblance of parliamentary institutions.
470 sitasi
en
Political Science
How Macroeconomists Lost Control of Stabilization Policy: Towards Dark Ages
Jean Bernard Chatelain, Kirsten Ralf
This paper is a study of the history of the transplant of mathematical tools using negative feedback for macroeconomic stabilization policy from 1948 to 1975 and the subsequent break of the use of control for stabilization policy which occurred from 1975 to 1993. New-classical macroeconomists selected a subset of the tools of control that favored their support of rules against discretionary stabilization policy. The Lucas critique and Kydland and Prescott's time-inconsistency were over-statements that led to the "dark ages" of the prevalence of the stabilization-policy-ineffectiveness idea. These over-statements were later revised following the success of the Taylor rule.
The merger history of primordial-black-hole binaries
You Wu
As a candidate of dark matter, primordial black holes (PBHs) have attracted more and more attentions as they could be possible progenitors of the heavy binary black holes (BBHs) observed by LIGO/Virgo. Accurately estimating the merger rate of PBH binaries will be crucial to reconstruct the mass distribution of PBHs. It was pointed out the merger history of PBHs may shift the merger rate distribution depending on the mass function of PBHs. In this paper, we use 10 BBH events from LIGO/Virgo O1 and O2 observing runs to constrain the merger rate distribution of PBHs by accounting the effect of merger history. It is found that the second merger process makes subdominant contribution to the total merger rate, and hence the merger history effect can be safely neglected.
Mitford on the causes of the Peloponnesian War
N.A. Yasnitsky
This historiographical paper discusses the causes of the Peloponnesian War as understood by W. Mitford, an English historian at the turn of the 18th – 19th centuries. His work “The History of Greece” was considered the most influential until the publication of “History of Greece” by G. Grote. It was found that W. Mitford’s interpretations were differently assessed in the 19th – 20th centuries: he was accused of political bias, praising Sparta, and criticizing democracy in general and the Athenian system of government in particular. The evidence that W. Mitford’s interpretations of the causes of the Peloponnesian War are based on the same objective factors as that ones introduced by modern scholars: not on his personal preferences or political views, but on the analysis of the political situation in Greek states based on the material interests of the political groups in democratic Athens imposing its rule to other Greek States in order to satisfy these interests.
History of scholarship and learning. The humanities
Recalibrating the Cosmic Star Formation History
Stephen M. Wilkins, Christopher C. Lovell, Elizabeth R. Stanway
The calibrations linking observed luminosities to the star formation rate depend on the assumed stellar population synthesis model, initial mass function, star formation and metal enrichment history, and whether reprocessing by dust and gas is included. Consequently the shape and normalisation of the inferred cosmic star formation history is sensitive to these assumptions. Using v2.2.1 of the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (\bpass) model we determine a new set of calibration coefficients for the ultraviolet, thermal-infrared, and, hydrogen recombination lines. These ultraviolet and thermal infrared coefficients are 0.15-0.2 dex higher than those widely utilised in the literature while the H$α$ coefficient is $\sim 0.35$ dex larger. These differences arise in part due to the inclusion binary evolution pathways but predominantly reflect an extension in the IMF to 300 $M_{\odot}$ and a change in the choice of reference metallicity. We use these new coefficients to recalibrate the cosmic star formation history, and find improved agreement between the integrated cosmic star formation history and the in-situ measured stellar mass density as a function of redshift. However, these coefficients produce new tension between star formation rate densities inferred from the ultraviolet and thermal-infrared and those from H$α$.
Does History Repeat Itself? Periodic Time Cosmology
Elizabeth Gould, Niayesh Afshordi
It has been suggested that the cosmic history might repeat in cycles, with an infinite series of similar aeons in the past and the future. Here, we instead propose that the cosmic history repeats itself exactly, constructing a universe on a periodic temporal history, which we call Periodic Time Cosmology. In particular, the primordial power spectrum, convolved with the transfer function throughout the cosmic history, would form the next aeon's primordial power spectrum. By matching the big bang to the infinite future using a conformal rescaling (a la Penrose), we uniquely determine the primordial power spectrum, in terms of the transfer function up to two free parameters. While nearly scale invariant with a red tilt on large scales, using Planck and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation observations, we find the minimal model is disfavoured compared to a power-law power spectrum at $5.1σ$. However, extensions of $Λ$CDM cosmic history change the large scale transfer function and can provide better relative fits to the data. For example, the best fit seven parameter model for our Periodic Time Cosmology, with $w=-1.024$ for dark energy equation of state, is only disfavoured relative to a power-law power spectrum (with the same number of parameters) at $1.8σ$ level. Therefore, consistency between cosmic history and initial conditions provides a viable description of cosmological observations in the context of Periodic Time Cosmology.
Classical Greek Tactics
Roel Konijnendijk
The Alexander Romance by Ps.-Callisthenes: A Historical Commentary
K. Nawotka
The Noborder Movement: Interpersonal Struggle with Political Ideals
Leslie Gauditz
Over the last decade, self-organized refugee protests in Europe have increased. One strand of activism in Europe, noborder, involves a transnational network of people who are heterogeneous with regards to legal status, race, or individual history of migration, but who share decolonial, anti-capitalist ideals that criticize the nation-state. Noborder activists embrace prefigurative strategies, which means enacting political ideals in their everyday life. This is why this article asks: How do noborder activists try to meet their political ideals in their everyday practices, and what effects do these intentions entail? Noborder practices take place at the intersection of self-organization as a reference to migrants’ legal status or identity, on the one hand, and self-organization as anti-hierarchical forms of anarchist-autonomous organization, on the other. On the basis of empirical findings of a multi-sited ethnography in Germany and Greece, this article conceptualizes that noborder creates a unique space for activists to meet in which people try to work productively through conflicts they see as being produced by a global system of inequalities. This demanding endeavor involves social pressure to self-reflect and to transform interpersonal relationships. Broader society could learn from such experiences to build more inclusive, heterogeneous communities.
The history effect in bubble growth and dissolution. Part 1. Theory
Pablo Peñas-López, Miguel A. Parrales, Javier Rodríguez-Rodríguez
et al.
The term `history effect' refers to the contribution of any past mass transfer events between a gas bubble and its liquid surroundings towards the current diffusion-driven growth or dissolution dynamics of that same bubble. The history effect arises from the (non-instantaneous) development of the dissolved gas concentration boundary layer in the liquid in response to changes in the concentration at the bubble interface caused, for instance, by variations of the ambient pressure in time. Essentially, the history effect amounts to the acknowledgement that at any given time the mass flux across the bubble is conditioned by the preceding time-history of the concentration at the bubble boundary. Considering the canonical problem of an isolated spherical bubble at rest, we show that the contribution of the history effect in the current interfacial concentration gradient is fully contained within a memory integral of the interface concentration. Retaining this integral term, we formulate a governing differential equation for the bubble dynamics, analogous to the well-known Epstein-Plesset solution. Our equation does not make use of the quasi-static radius approximation. An analytical solution is presented for the case of multiple step-like jumps in pressure. The nature and relevance of the history effect is then assessed through illustrative examples. Finally, we investigate the role of the history effect in rectified diffusion for a bubble that pulsates under harmonic pressure forcing in the non-inertial, isothermal regime.
Science in the Age of Computer Simulation
K. Moe
39 sitasi
en
Computer Science