Hasil untuk "History of Great Britain"

Richard de Grijs

In the nineteenth century, the Dutch established time signals in their Atlantic colonies to synchronise maritime navigation with European standards. In Paramaribo (Suriname), a sophisticated sequence of apparatus -- including time balls, noon guns, discs and flags -- operated from 1851 until World War I. Naval officers aboard guard ships used sextants equipped with artificial horizons to determine local noon, thus integrating the colony into the global Greenwich-based cartographic system. This infrastructure was not merely technical; it became a civic ritual, with the daily noon gun structuring urban life and becoming a point of political negotiation between naval commanders and the colonial governor. In contrast, the Dutch Caribbean islands employed simpler, pragmatic systems. Curaçao used a daily time flag, a cost-effective solution suited to its climate and harbour scale, while smaller islands like Aruba and St. Eustatius relied on occasional noon guns. This diversity reflected a decentralised colonial administration that adapted technologies to local conditions and budgets. The history of these time signals reveals a process of hybrid adaptation, not simply replication of European models. They were shaped by environmental challenges, fiscal constraints and local politics, functioning simultaneously as navigational aids and civic landmarks. Their eventual decline, owing to budgetary pressures and new technologies like wireless telegraphy, underscores the fragile and negotiated nature of colonial scientific infrastructures.

Banafsheh Karimian, Alexis Guichemerre, Soufiane Belharbi et al.

Breast cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Longitudinal mammography risk prediction models improve multi-year breast cancer risk prediction based on prior screening exams. However, in real-world clinical practice, longitudinal histories are often incomplete, irregular, or unavailable due to missed screenings, first-time examinations, heterogeneous acquisition schedules, or archival constraints. The absence of prior exams degrades the performance of longitudinal risk models and limits their practical applicability. While substantial longitudinal history is available during training, prior exams are commonly absent at test time. In this paper, we address missing history at inference time and propose a longitudinal risk prediction method that uses mammography history as privileged information during training and distills its prognostic value into a student model that only requires the current exam at inference time. The key idea is a privileged multi-teacher distillation scheme with horizon-specific teachers: each teacher is trained on the full longitudinal history to specialize in one prediction horizon, while the student receives only a reconstructed history derived from the current exam. This allows the student to inherit horizon-dependent longitudinal risk cues without requiring prior screening exams at deployment. Our new Privileged History Distillation (PHD) method is validated on a large longitudinal mammography dataset with multi-year cancer outcomes, CSAW-CC, comparing full-history and no-history baselines to their distilled counterparts. Using time-dependent AUC across horizons, our privileged history distillation method markedly improves the performance of long-horizon prediction over no-history models and is comparable to that of full-history models, while using only the current exam at inference time.

Yu Shi, Hao Li, Bram Adams et al.

Automated program repair (APR) has recently shifted toward large language models and agent-based systems, yet most systems rely on local snapshot context, overlooking repository history. Prior work shows that repository history helps repair single-line bugs, since the last commit touching the buggy line is often the bug-introducing one. In this paper, we investigate whether repository history can also improve agentic APR systems at scale, especially for complex multi-hunk bugs. We present HAFixAgent, a History-Aware Bug-Fixing Agent that injects blame-derived repository heuristics into its repair loop. A preliminary study on 854 Defects4J (Java) and 501 BugsInPy (Python) bugs motivates our design, showing that bug-relevant history is widely available across both benchmarks. Using the same LLM (DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp) for all experiments, including replicated baselines, we show: (1) Effectiveness: HAFixAgent outperforms RepairAgent (+56.6\%) and BIRCH-feedback (+47.1\%) on Defects4J. Historical context further improves repair by +4.4\% on Defects4J and +38.6\% on BugsInPy, especially on single-file multi-hunk (SFMH) bugs. (2) Robustness: under noisy fault localization (+1/+3/+5 line shifts), history provides increasing resilience, maintaining 40 to 56\% success on SFMH bugs where the non-history baseline collapses to 0\%. (3) Efficiency: history does not significantly increase agent steps or token costs on either benchmark.

Alejandro Pulido Azpíroz

This paper examines the inner debate in Basque nationalism resulting from the Easter Rising between 1916 and 1918. Basque nationalists firmly believed that the Irish Revolution would affect the British war effort, the outcome of the Great War and hence Basque political vindication itself. The official nationalist leadership and its organ, Euzkadi, supported Great Britain, arguing a British military triumph in Ireland and in the Great War would bring a worldwide era of autonomy for national minorities. Pro-independence militants, however, not only expressed solidarity and outspoken support towards the rebels, but also associated their victory with a post-war scenario favourable to independence movements. This study focuses on the two competing Basque nationalist interpretations as presented in the media. Simultaneously, traditionalist parties (i.e. Carlists and Integrists) exacerbated nationalists’ differences in order to weaken a direct political rival.

G. Almond, S. Verba

Nathalie Vanfasse

O. Krause, O. Krause

<p>The British geographer Halford J. Mackinder developed two different concepts of a dystopian new global order. The first, developed in 1904 and known as the pivot area concept, was adopted by German geopolitician Karl Haushofer in the 1920s. The second, developed in 1919, was named the heartland theory and was adopted in Great Britain and the USA. Haushofer reversed the dystopian vision of the pivot area concept into a utopian concept for German world power. Due to Haushofer's adaptation, interest in Mackinder's theories rose in the USA in the 1940s. Within the process of adaptation in the USA, both concepts were intertwined, resulting in the perception of the two as a monolithic bloc. Through this multi-layered process of intercontinental reception and adaptation in Germany and the USA, the term “heartland” became a generic spatial denomination detached from the geographical region it originally prescribed, integrable with various geopolitical concepts as the centre of an imagined world order. The reduction of complexity of the theory through the translation of text into maps led to its popularization among the US public during the 1940s and 1950s. Mackinder himself laid out the flexibility of the theory's interpretive possibilities by reflexively revising the theory and adapting it to the history of events over the course of the first half of the 20th century itself. In consequence, the generic spatial denomination “heartland” and the associated adopted theory served as a geopolitical argument for the strategic narrative legitimizing US foreign policy in World War II and during the Cold War.</p>

Sylvia Wenmackers

Problems with uniform probabilities on an infinite support show up in contemporary cosmology. This paper focuses on the context of inflation theory, where it complicates the assignment of a probability measure over pocket universes. The measure problem in cosmology, whereby it seems impossible to pick out a uniquely well-motivated measure, is associated with a paradox that occurs in standard probability theory and crucially involves uniformity on an infinite sample space. This problem has been discussed by physicists, albeit without reference to earlier work on this topic. The aim of this article is both to introduce philosophers of probability to these recent discussions in cosmology and to familiarize physicists and philosophers working on cosmology with relevant foundational work by Kolmogorov, de Finetti, Jaynes, and other probabilists. As such, the main goal is not to solve the measure problem, but to clarify the exact origin of some of the current obstacles. The analysis of the assumptions going into the paradox indicates that there exist multiple ways of dealing consistently with uniform probabilities on infinite sample spaces. Taking a pluralist stance towards the mathematical methods used in cosmology shows there is some room for progress with assigning probabilities in cosmological theories.

Simon During

Christina Hunt Mahony

Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Alexander Ly

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox exposes a rift between Bayesian and frequentist hypothesis testing that strikes at the heart of statistical inference. Contrary to what most current literature suggests, the paradox was central to the Bayesian testing methodology developed by Sir Harold Jeffreys in the late 1930s. Jeffreys showed that the evidence against a point-null hypothesis $\mathcal{H}_0$ scales with $\sqrt{n}$ and repeatedly argued that it would therefore be mistaken to set a threshold for rejecting $\mathcal{H}_0$ at a constant multiple of the standard error. Here we summarize Jeffreys's early work on the paradox and clarify his reasons for including the $\sqrt{n}$ term. The prior distribution is seen to play a crucial role; by implicitly correcting for selection, small parameter values are identified as relatively surprising under $\mathcal{H}_1$. We highlight the general nature of the paradox by presenting both a fully frequentist and a fully Bayesian version. We also demonstrate that the paradox does not depend on assigning prior mass to a point hypothesis, as is commonly believed.

A. Regier

Exorbitant Enlightenment offers new ways to think about eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century literature and culture. It brings into focus a constellation of relatively unknown, pre-1790s Anglo-German relations in Britain, many of which are so radical—so exorbitant—that they ask us to fundamentally rethink the way we do literary and intellectual history, especially when it comes to Enlightenment and Romanticism. This polyglot book delivers two of the great, untold stories of the eighteenth century. The first story uncovers a forgotten Anglo-German network of thought and writing in Britain between 1700 and 1790. From this Anglo-German context emerges the second story: a set of radical figures and institutions that are exorbitant, they leave the specified tracks of literary history and present us with a literary history that explodes the difference between the Enlightenment and Romanticism. These figures and institutions include the Moravians in 1750s London, Henry Fuseli (1741–25), and Johann Caspar Lavater (1741–1801), but also the two most radical, notorious, and most exorbitant figures: William Blake (1757–1827) and Johann Georg Hamann (1730–88). Over eight comparative chapters, the book presents a constellation of case studies that show how these figures and institutions shake up our common understanding of British literary and European intellectual history. Exorbitant Enlightenment takes seriously, and pays particular attention to, the exorbitant dimensions of Blake and Hamann and how once we take them seriously, these exorbitant figures allow us to uncover and address some of our own critical orthodoxies.

Rickard Nyman, Paul Ormerod

Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a genuine ex ante forecasting situation, over the period since 1990 the accuracy of the four-step ahead predictions is distinctly superior to those actually made by the professional forecasters. Here we extend the analysis by examining the contributions made to the Great Recession of the late 2000s by each of the explanatory variables. We disaggregate private sector debt into its household and non-financial corporate components. We find that both household and non-financial corporate debt were key determinants of the Great Recession. We find a considerable degree of non-linearity in the explanatory models. In contrast, the public sector debt to GDP ratio appears to have made very little contribution. It did rise sharply during the Great Recession, but this was as a consequence of the sharp fall in economic activity rather than it being a cause. We obtain similar results for both the United States and the United Kingdom.

Günther Of, Raphael Watschinger

We consider a fast, data-sparse directional method to realize matrix-vector products related to point evaluations of the Helmholtz kernel. The method is based on a hierarchical partitioning of the point sets and the matrix. The considered directional multi-level approximation of the Helmholtz kernel can be applied even on high-frequency levels efficiently. We provide a detailed analysis of the almost linear asymptotic complexity of the presented method. Our numerical experiments are in good agreement with the provided theory.

Jeroen van Dongen

Albert Einstein's practice in physics and his philosophical positions gradually reoriented themselves from more empiricist towards rationalist viewpoints. This change accompanied his turn towards unified field theory and different presentations of himself, eventually leading to his highly programmatic Autobiographical Notes in 1949. Einstein enlisted his own history and professional stature to mold an ideal of a theoretical physicist who represented particular epistemic virtues and moral qualities. These in turn reflected the theoretical ideas of his strongly mathematical unification program and professed Spinozist beliefs.

I. E. Ibragimov

The article analyzes the role of the Egyptian military-political elite on the eve of the Revolution of 1952, when the military came to power, led by Gamal Abdel Nasser. The study of the history and activities of the organization «Free Officers» is hardly possible without considering the evolution of the national-patriotic and political movements in the Egyptian army. During the second quarter of the 20 th century the Egyptian society experienced fairly turbulent and eventful political process that influenced the further development of the country. At present the study of role of army in liberation movement in the Middle East is extremely urgent since military structures have become the base of the state system of many Arabic countries. The army has sufficiently influenced to the political development of the states. In connection with the recent transformations in the Middle East, that witnessed crises of political systems and statehood, the consideration of military elites, their coming to power and impact on a political system is important for the study of the general issues of the Middle East.The author considers the factors which influenced the evolutionary transformation of the Egyptian military before and after the World War II, as well as the social origins of the officer corps. Moreover, the object of the study includes the entire period of the national liberation movement of the Egyptian people, when almost all segments of Egyptian society were involved in this struggle. An important aspect of this trend is that, in the run-up to the Egyptian Revolution of 1952, the officers and the military elite became a more prepared and organized than other groups and was able to quickly and almost bloodlessly take power into their own hands.The article notes that it is impossible to solve urgent social problems and overcome economic backwardness without centralized strong leadership. While forming the Egyptian statehood and the Kingdom of Egypt, there were three centers of power – Wafd party led by Saad Zaghloul, the king and his supporters, as well as Great Britain, which retained control over Egypt. Given the absence of one center of power in the country, as well as the weakness and dependence of the existing ones, opposition movements with different views on the development of Egypt were created. The society of «Muslim Brotherhood» was one of them, eventually discrediting itself during its further development. «Free Officers» were able to establish themselves as a secret society, which ideologically did not belong to any political camp. Coherence, hierarchy and army solidarity became effective advantages in their struggle for power.

S. Bradley, G. Milne, I. Shennan et al.

Stéphanie Bory

General elections offer opportunities to study Britain’s political life, in particular the position and strength of each party in the four nations which make up the United Kingdom. The Labour Party has dominated the Welsh political landscape for decades now and the June 2017 snap election was no exception. Welsh Labour obtained good results, mainly thanks to the prominent role given to Carwyn Jones, First Minister and leader of the party. He adopted an ambivalent attitude: he was extremely visible on the question Brexit but he refused to limit campaign debates to this issue.

Stéphanie Bory