Hasil untuk "Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand"

W. Nicholson

J. Vries

C. Kuo, Li-cheng Chen, Chin-Yao Tseng

Marco del Negro, M. Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri et al.

ABSTRACT:The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using vector autoregressions and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. It finds that the disconnect is due primarily to the muted reaction of inflation to cost pressures, regardless of how they are measured—a flat aggregate supply curve. A shift in policy toward more forceful inflation stabilization also appears to have played some role by reducing the impact of demand shocks on the real economy. The evidence rules out stories centered around changes in the structure of the labor market or in how we should measure its tightness.

Jorge Sánchez Canales, Alice Lixuan Xu, Chiara Fusar Bassini et al.

Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common practice to construct supply curves from engineering data such as installed capacity and fuel prices. In this study, we propose a data-driven methodology to estimate the supply curve of electricity market empirically, i.e. from observed prices and quantities without further modeling assumptions. Due to the massive swings in fuel prices during the European energy crisis, a central task is detecting periods of stable supply curves. To this end, we implement two alternative clustering methods, one based on the fundamental drivers of electricity supply and the other directly on observed market outcomes. We apply our methods to the German electricity market between 2019 and 2024. We find that both approaches identify almost identical regimes shifts, supporting the idea of stable supply regimes stemming from stable drivers. Supply conditions are often stable for extended periods, but evolved rapidly during the energy crisis, triggering a rapid succession of regimes. Fuel prices were the dominant drivers of regime shifts, while conventional plant availability and the nuclear phase-out play a comparatively minor role. Our approach produces empirical supply curves suitable for causal inference and counterfactual analysis of market outcomes.

Jiekai Ma, Yikai Zhao

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently enabled natural language interfaces that translate user queries into executable SQL, offering a powerful solution for non-technical stakeholders to access structured data. However, one of the limitation that LLMs do not natively express uncertainty makes it difficult to assess the reliability of their generated queries. This paper presents a case study that evaluates multiple approaches to estimate confidence scores for LLM-generated SQL in supply chain data retrieval. We investigated three strategies: (1) translation-based consistency checks; (2) embedding-based semantic similarity between user questions and generated SQL; and (3) self-reported confidence scores directly produced by the LLM. Our findings reveal that LLMs are often overconfident in their own outputs, which limits the effectiveness of self-reported confidence. In contrast, embedding-based similarity methods demonstrate strong discriminative power in identifying inaccurate SQL.

Ciprian Panzaru, Anamaria Grama

Abstract The classification and identification of soft skills within the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications, and Occupations (ESCO) framework presents a significant challenge, as ESCO does not explicitly indicate which of its listed skills are considered “soft”. This lack of clear labelling complicates the strategic alignment of educational programs and workforce development initiatives with the evolving demands of today’s labour market, where soft skills are increasingly recognised as essential for professional success. Our study seeks to address this challenge by conducting a systematic literature review to identify and define a comprehensive set of soft skills, and by employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to map these skills to the ESCO taxonomy. Through semantic analysis and comparison of soft skills identified from scientific literature against the ESCO skillset, we establish a refined classification that explicitly labels soft skills within the ESCO framework. Our findings provide a necessary clarification of soft skills within the standardised European context, offering valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and HR professionals focused on fostering soft skills development. By clarifying the soft skills embedded within the ESCO framework, this research contributes to the advancement of skill taxonomies and promotes a more integrated approach to the development and assessment of soft skills. JEL classification J20, J24, I26, C88.

Olga F. Alyokhina, Larisa M. Butova, Vera A. Akimenko et al.

Russian labor market responds to Western sanctions. A timely control of these reactions makes it possible to take measures and eliminate the imbalance of supply and demand of labor resources. The authors identified the effects of economic sanctions in 2022–2024 as part of an economic and statistical study of Russian labor market and developed a set of measures that could level the negative impact. They used the methods of economic analysis, logical approach, and comparison to conduct a dynamic analysis of the labor market in 2021–2024 and reveal the causes of the current situation in the context of economic sanctions. The effects of the economic sanctions of 2022–2024 on the Russian labor market were classified as negative, dual, and positive. The negative ones can be leveled by institutional and organizational state policy measures. Despite the current brain drain, the demand for labor in manufacturing and high-tech areas is increasing due to the development of domestic production, which creates new jobs. As a result, the labor shortage and the labor market imbalance are more acute. Instead of restraining the Russian economy, the sanctions have led to structural changes in the Russian economy.

Yasuko Kawahata

This paper is a preliminary report of the research plan and a digest of the results and discussions. On research note explores the complex dynamics of fake news dissemination and fact-checking costs within the framework of information markets and analyzes the equilibrium between supply and demand using the concepts of droop quotas, Meek's method, and marginal contributions. By adopting a two-sided matching market perspective, we delve into scenarios in which markets are stable under the influence of fake news perceived as truth and those in which credibility prevails. Through the application of iterated dilemma game theory, we investigate the strategic choices of news providers affected by the costs associated with spreading fake news and fact-checking efforts. We further examine the maximum reward problem and strategies to minimize the cost path for spreading fake news, and consider a nuanced understanding of market segmentation into "cheap" and "premium" segments based on the nature of the information being spread. Our analysis uses mathematical models and computational processes to identify stable equilibrium points that ensure market stability in the face of deceptive information practices and provide insight into effective strategies to enhance the informational health of the market. Through this comprehensive approach, this paper aims for a more truthful and reliable perspective from which to observe information markets. This paper is partially an attempt to utilize "Generative AI" and was written with educational intent. There are currently no plans for it to become a peer-reviewed paper.

Quenizia Vieira Lopes, Adriana Regina de Jesus Santos

Busca-se discorrer sobre a Teoria da Atividade de Leontiev, a qual tem como base teórica a Teoria Histórico-Cultural de Vigotski e, por conseguinte, o Materialismo Histórico-Dialético, de Karl Marx. Expõe-se uma síntese da teoria, abordando seus pontos principais, como a estrutura da atividade. Este trabalho visa auxiliar a assimilação de conhecimentos teóricos de interessados na temática. Como procedimento metodológico, utilizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa a partir da adoção de pesquisa documental. Ao final desse estudo, detectou-se que a Teoria da Atividade pode ser utilizada no contexto educacional.  Palavra-chave: Atividade; Motivo; Sentido; Significação; Trabalho.

О. І. Diakonenko, Т. М. Kotenko

The relevance of this research stems from the aggravating regional disproportionalities on the Ukrainian labor market. The current transformational shifts in the domestic labor market are accompanied by radical changes that feature chaotic nature and have destabilizing effects for the labor resource capacities and the compliance with labor-specific social standards and guarantees. The article’s objective is to explore the current transformations in the labor market across Ukrainian regions, caused by the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war. An assessment of the transformation in workforce supply and demand in Ukrainian regions in 2014 and 2023 was made by a comparative analysis, statistical methods and data analysis. Spearmen’s rank correlation coefficient, coefficient of inequality of distribution, assessment of the significance of differences between two structures by JR criterion were used for an analysis of the transformations in regional and gender structures of the workforce supply and demand. Essential structural shifts in the regional structure of workforce supply were revealed, especially in the front-line areas, the city of Kyiv and Kyiv oblast. An asymmetry of distribution of the unemployed population was found to be increasing under the pressure of population replacement. An assessment of the gender structure of workforce supply allowed for the following grouping of regions: the first group of 18 regions with the structures close to the average Ukrainian estimate; the second group covering four oblasts with small differences from the average Ukrainian estimate and a limited scope of labor uses; the third group covering three oblasts with essential differences from the average Ukrainian estimate and a narrow labor market capacity due to the proximity of the front line.    The main steps to minimize the adverse impact of the regional disproportionality of the labor market were substantiated: creating and revitalizing jobs in territorial communities of Ukraine that are safe for living, to supply unemployed population with jobs in the formal sector of the economy and to encourage migrants’ coming back from abroad; elaborating schemes and implementing tools for regulation of spatial mobility and movement of workforce between labor-deficient and labor-surplus labor markets; stimulating retraining and training for the occupations expected to enjoy demand in the short- and long-term perspective.

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Daron Acemoglu, David H. Autor

J. Bound, Breno Braga, Gaurav Khanna et al.

In the four decades since 1980, U.S. colleges and universities have seen the number of students from abroad quadruple. This rise in enrollment and degree attainment affects the global supply of highly educated workers, the flow of talent to the U.S. labor market, and the financing of U.S. higher education. Yet, the impacts are far from uniform, with significant differences evident by level of study and type of institution. The determinants of foreign flows to U.S. colleges and universities reflect both changes in student demand from abroad and the variation in market circumstances of colleges and universities, with visa policies serving a mediating role. The consequences of these market mechanisms impact global talent development, the resources of colleges and universities, and labor markets in the U.S. and countries sending students.

Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek, J. Leer et al.

We implement a novel methodology to disentangle two-way causality in inflation and income expectations in a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers. We find a 20 percent passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth, but no statistically significant effect in the other direction. Passthrough is higher for higher-income individuals and men. Higher inflation expectations increase consumers’ likelihood to search for higherpaying new jobs. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, dampened responses of wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater output fluctuations. The survey results and model analysis provide a labor market channel for why people dislike inflation.

K. Charles, Erik Hurst, M. Schwartz

Using data from a variety of sources, this paper comprehensively documents the dramatic changes in the manufacturing sector and the large decline in employment rates and hours worked among prime-age Americans since 2000. We use cross-region variation to explore the link between declining manufacturing employment and labor market outcomes. We find that manufacturing decline in a local area in the 2000s had large and persistent negative effects on local employment rates, hours worked, and wages. We also show that declining local manufacturing employment is related to rising local opioid use and deaths. These results suggest that some of the recent opioid epidemic is driven by demand factors in addition to increased opioid supply. We conclude the paper with a discussion of potential mediating factors associated with declining manufacturing labor demand, including public and private transfer receipt, sectoral switching, and interregion mobility. We conclude that the decline in manufacturing employment was a substantial cause of the decline in employment rates during the 2000s, particularly for less educated prime-age workers. Given the trends in both capital and skill deepening within this sector, we further conclude that many policies currently being discussed to promote the manufacturing sector will have only a modest labor market impact for less educated individuals.

Katharine G. Abraham, Melissa S. Kearney

This paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall employment-to-population ratio between 1999 and 2018. Population aging has had a large effect on the overall employment rate over this period, but within-age-group declines in employment among young- and prime-age adults also have played a central role. Among the factors with effects that we can quantify based on existing evidence, labor demand factors, in particular increased import competition from China and the penetration of robots into the labor market, are the most important drivers of observed within-group declines in employment. Labor supply factors, most notably increased participation in disability insurance programs, have played a less important but not inconsequential role. Increases in the real value of state minimum wages and in the share of individuals with prison records also have contributed modestly to the decline in the aggregate employment rate. In addition to the factors whose effects we roughly quantify, we identify a set of potentially important factors about which the evidence does not yet allow us to draw clear conclusions. These include the challenges associated with arranging child care, improvements in leisure technology, changing social norms, increased use of opioids, the growth in occupational licensing, and declining labor market fluidity. Our evidence-driven ranking of factors should be useful for guiding future discussions about the sources of decline in the aggregate employment-to-population ratio and consequently the likely efficacy of alternative policy approaches to increasing employment rates. (JEL E24, J64)

Miranda Bihler, Hala Nelson, Erin Okey et al.

We propose two neural network based and data-driven supply and demand models to analyze the efficiency, identify service gaps, and determine the significant predictors of demand, in the bus system for the Department of Public Transportation (HDPT) in Harrisonburg City, Virginia, which is the home to James Madison University (JMU). The supply and demand models, one temporal and one spatial, take many variables into account, including the demographic data surrounding the bus stops, the metrics that the HDPT reports to the federal government, and the drastic change in population between when JMU is on or off session. These direct and data-driven models to quantify supply and demand and identify service gaps can generalize to other cities' bus systems.

YuanzhangXiao, ChaithanyaBandi, Ermin Wei

We study deregulated power markets with strategic power suppliers. In deregulated markets, each supplier submits its supply function (i.e., the amount of electricity it is willing to produce at various prices) to the independent system operator (ISO), who based on the submitted supply functions, dispatches the suppliers to clear the market with minimal total generation cost. If all suppliers reported their true marginal cost functions as supply functions, the market outcome would be efficient (i.e., the total generation cost is minimized). However, when suppliers are strategic and aim to maximize their own profits, the reported supply functions are not necessarily the true marginal cost functions, and the resulting market outcome may be inefficient. The efficiency loss depends crucially on the topology of the underlying transmission network. This paper provides an analytical upper bound of the efficiency loss due to strategic suppliers, and proves that the bound is tight under a large class of transmission networks (i.e., weakly cyclic networks). Our upper bound sheds light on how the efficiency loss depends on the transmission network topology (e.g., the degrees of nodes, the admittances and flow limits of transmission lines).