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arXiv Open Access 2026
The Ideation Bottleneck: Decomposing the Quality Gap Between AI-Generated and Human Economics Research

Ning Li

Autonomous AI systems can now generate complete economics research papers, but they substantially underperform human-authored publications in head-to-head comparisons. This paper decomposes the quality gap into two independent components: research idea quality and execution quality. Using a two-model ensemble of fine-tuned language models trained on publication decisions (Gong, Li, and Zhou, 2026) to evaluate idea quality and a comprehensive six-dimension rubric assessed by Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite -- the same model family used as the APE tournament judge, ensuring methodological consistency -- to evaluate execution quality, we analyze 953 economics papers -- 912 AI-generated papers from the APE project and 41 human papers published in the American Economic Review and AEJ: Economic Policy. The idea quality gap is large (Cohen's d = 2.23, p < 0.001), with human papers achieving 47.1% mean ensemble exceptional probability versus 16.5% for AI. The execution quality gap is also significant but smaller (d = 0.90, p < 0.001), with human papers scoring 4.38/5.0 versus 3.84. Idea quality accounts for approximately 71% of the overall quality difference, with execution contributing 29%. The largest execution weakness is mechanism analysis depth (d = 1.43); no significant difference is found on robustness. We document that 74% of AI papers employ difference-in-differences, and only 7 AI papers (0.8%) surpass the median human paper on both idea and execution quality simultaneously. The primary bottleneck to competitive AI-generated economics research remains ideation.

en econ.GN, cs.AI
arXiv Open Access 2025
Women's inheritance rights reforms and impact on women's empowerment: evidence from India

Minali Grover, Ajay Sharma

This paper explores the influence of inheritance rights on women' empowerment in India. We employ the quasi-natural experiment framework wherein; five states amended the Hindu Succession Act (HSA) from 1976 to 1994 before it was federally amended in 2005. Further, we apply difference-in-difference (DID) strategy and consider triangulation approach to identify women empowerment indicators namely: access to resources, agency, and outcomes to measure varying dimensions of empowerment. Using the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-I), our results indicate a positive impact on marriage choice, intimate partner violence, physical, and civil autonomy. However, negative impact on household autonomy and no significant on economic participation for women exposed to state amendments. Further, exploring the heterogeneities in terms of socio-economic status, location, level of patriarchy in a state, gender of the head of the household. Overall, the study highlights that the impact of inheritance law is not unfirm across different groups.

arXiv Open Access 2025
Development of Railway Silk Road as a Platform for Promoting Georgias Economic Growth

Davit Gondauri, M. Moistsrapishvili

The given paper emphasizes the importance of the Railway Silk Road for promoting Georgia's economic growth and development. The article notes that economic integration in the region increases cargo turnover in Central Asia and the Caucasus, thus boosting the volume of goods transported through Georgia and contributing to the sustainability of Georgia's macroeconomic and economic growth. The financial economic models aim to identify causal links between the sensitivity of railway cargo and the country's economic growth. The main task of the research was to use the Railway EVA and the Georgian economy to create a cargo sensitivity relationship between CAGR models. The paper analyzes key scientific problems regarding railway freight transportation studies. Calculations are provided for the share of the Railway System in the country's GDP for 2006-2017, as well as the average annual geometric (CAGR) growth of cargo volumes over a 16-year cycle, allowing Georgian Railway JSC to generate additional value in the country's overall GDP. The research shows that the added value to GDP comes in direct and indirect forms through the development and growth of various sectors of Georgia's economy, as some of the cargo shipped by railway remains in Georgia and is used in production, thereby adding value to the country's economic growth. The use of this model by foreign research centers also provides further opportunities for the economic growth of their countries.

arXiv Open Access 2025
Mass Shootings, Community Mobility, and the Relocation of Economic Activity

Miguel Cuellar, Hyunseok Jung

Using foot traffic data for over 150,000 points of interest (POIs) near the sites of 42 mass shootings (2018-2022, U.S.), we evaluate the spatial-temporal impact of the tragic events on community mobility and relocation of economic activities. Visits to nearby POIs decrease, while farther away POIs experience increased foot traffic, implying that communities shift their activities away from the shooting sites. The impact is stronger when stronger trauma responses are expected. Our results suggest that mass shootings drive significant displacements of economic activities and can lead to welfare losses due to distortions in optimal choices of time and location.

en econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2025
Agentic Workflows for Economic Research: Design and Implementation

Herbert Dawid, Philipp Harting, Hankui Wang et al.

This paper introduces a methodology based on agentic workflows for economic research that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and multimodal AI to enhance research efficiency and reproducibility. Our approach features autonomous and iterative processes covering the entire research lifecycle--from ideation and literature review to economic modeling and data processing, empirical analysis and result interpretation--with strategic human oversight. The workflow architecture comprises specialized agents with clearly defined roles, structured inter-agent communication protocols, systematic error escalation pathways, and adaptive mechanisms that respond to changing research demand. Human-in-the-loop (HITL) checkpoints are strategically integrated to ensure methodological validity and ethical compliance. We demonstrate the practical implementation of our framework using Microsoft's open-source platform, AutoGen, presenting experimental examples that highlight both the current capabilities and future potential of agentic workflows in improving economic research.

en econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2025
A Theory of Chaordic Economics: How Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain Transform Businesses, Economies and Societies

Horst Treiblmaier

Dee Hock, the founder of Visa, coined the term 'chaordic' to describe simultaneously chaotic and ordered systems. Based on his reasoning, we introduce the Theory of Chaordic Economics to explain how economic systems are transformed by two disruptive technologies: namely Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain. Artificial intelligence can generate novel output through algorithmic yet rather unpredictable processes. Blockchain creates deterministic results without central authorities and relies on elaborated protocols that prescribe how consensus can be reached within a network of peers. The amalgamation of chaos and order produces chaordic economic systems and can yield hitherto unthinkable economic structures.

arXiv Open Access 2025
The role of ethical consumption in promoting democratic sustainability: revisiting neoclassical economics through Kantian ethics

Pascal Stiefenhofer

This paper explores how ethical consumption can transform democratic governance toward sustainability by challenging traditional economic models centered on utility and efficiency. As societal values shift toward transparency equity and environmental responsibility ethical consumers increasingly influence markets. Drawing on Whites Kantian economic framework and Ingleharts theory of value change the paper proposes a model integrating moral imperatives into economic theory. Using a vector bundle approach it captures evolving ethical preferences advocating for an inclusive sustainability focused economic paradigm aligned with post materialist values.

en econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2025
The Economic Impact of Low- and High-Frequency Temperature Changes

Nikolay Gospodinov, Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Serena Ng

Temperature variations at different frequencies may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. We first explore ways to estimate the low- and high-frequency components in a U.S. panel of 48 states. All methods suggest slowly evolving low-frequency components of temperature at the state level, and that they share a common factor which covaries with the low-frequency component of economic activity. While we fail to find a statistically significant impact of low-frequency temperature changes on U.S. growth, an international panel of 50 countries suggests that a 1°C increase in the low-frequency component will reduce economic growth by about one percent in the long run. The linear effect of the high-frequency component is not well determined in all panels, but there is evidence of a non-linear effect in the international panel. The findings are corroborated by time series estimation using data at the unit and national levels. Our empirical work pays attention to distortions that may arise from using one-way clustered errors for inference, and to the possible inadequacy of the additive fixed effect specification in controlling for common time effects.

en econ.GN
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Enhanced production of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in Mang Buk Brown rice via optimal fermentation conditions with Lactobacillus brevis, Lactobacillus pentosus, and Lactobacillus plantarum

Ho Thi Ngoc Tram, Pham Van Thinh, Truong Ngoc Minh et al.

Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) is a biologically active amino acid with numerous health benefits. This study aimed to optimize the production of GABA-enriched Mang Buk brown rice through fermentation with various Lactobacillus strains. The impact of incubation temperature, duration, pH levels, and Lactobacillus concentration on GABA content were systematically investigated. The results revealed that in the presence of Lactobacillus brevis under specific conditions, GABA concentrations significantly increased to 8.16 mg/100gDW. Additionally, the condition of 35 °C and 30h of incubation consistently resulted in the highest GABA content across different Lactobacillus strains. However, the increase in the concentration of Lactobacillus involved in the fermentation process led to a rapid decline in GABA content. Simultaneously, the most suitable operating environment for yeast was determined to be at a pH range of 5–6. After fermentation under optimal conditions, the GABA content reached 24.01 mg/100g DW, representing a 141.24-fold increase compared to the initial content. These results were validated using the high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. These findings highlight the potential for tailored fermentation strategies to produce nutritionally rich GABA-enriched rice products with promising health benefits. The optimized process presents an opportunity for expanding the production of functional foods with enhanced nutritional value.

Agriculture (General), Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Assessment of nutritional, antioxidant, physicochemical, and storage stability of carrot powder supplemented goat milk yogurt

Hafiz Talha Hafeez, Hafiz Shahzad Muzammil, Zulfiqar Ahmad et al.

With the ever-increasing global population, dietary needs, and nutritional scarcities like micronutrient inadequacies of Vitamin A and C, the present study was planned to improve nutritional, antioxidant, physicochemical stability, and organoleptic characteristics of nutrient-dense carrot powder (CP) supplemented (0.75–2%) goat milk yogurt at 0–14 days of storage. CP and goat milk were found to uphold appreciable magnitudes of ash, dietary fiber, and protein content as 4.89 and 0.92 g/100g, 10.68 and 0.005 g/100g, 6.38 and 3.40 g/100g, respectively. The results for the nutritional and physicochemical characteristics of CP supplemented (0–2%) goat milk yogurt at the 0–14th day of storage elucidated a significant (p < 0.05) increase in total solids (10.9–13.3 %), vitamin A (0.05–1.97 mg/100g), vitamin C (2.3–3.3 mg/100g) and carotenoid contents (0.84–1.3 mg/100g). Likewise, total flavonoids, total phenolics, FRAP and DPPH values of the supplemented yogurt significantly (p < 0.05) enhanced from 117.7 to 120.2 mg CE/g, 8.2–12.1 mg GAE/100g, 39.8–41.3 μM TE/g and 58.3–59.6 %, respectively. However, a∗ value (i.e., redness) increased from −0.76 to 12.3 among color parameters. The results for the supplemented yogurt's pH, vitamin A, and carotenoid contents showed slight variation in the storage of 0–14 days. Sensory evaluation of value-added yogurt showed the highest aroma and textural scores for T2 (1.25 %), i.e., 8.2 and 8.1, whereas the data also showed the highest overall acceptability of the finished product for the treatment T2 (1.25 %), i.e., 8.1. Conclusively, CP is a promising carrier of vitamins A and C, which could be used as a viable ingredient of choice to develop novel food products with health-improving properties.

Agriculture (General), Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2025
The effect of harvesting time and beehive type on honey yield and quality of Apis mellifera in Kilite Awlaelo district, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Solomon Abera Bariagabre, Gebre Tsegay, Amanuel Berhe et al.

Abstract This study investigated the effects of harvesting time and interval on honey yield and quality in northern Ethiopia. Two experiments were conducted. In Experiment I, bee colonies were divided based on hive type, having three modern and three traditional hives, and honey yield was measured at the end of every month from August to November. In Experiment II, 24 hives (12 modern, 12 traditional) were used to assess the effect of harvesting intervals on honey yield and quality at 30, 60, 90, and 120 days. Composite honey samples were collected from both experiments for laboratory analysis of quality parameters, including total reducing sugars, sucrose, specific gravity, moisture content, pH, hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF), mineral content, water-insoluble solids, and acidity. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 21, with ANOVA applied to evaluate the effects of harvesting time, interval, and hive type on honey yield and quality. The average monthly honey yield per hive was 11.38 ± 1.44 kg for modern and 2.77 ± 1.22 kg for traditional hives. In Experiment II, the average yield per interval was 8.70 ± 0.89 kg for extracted honey and 2.24 ± 0.75 kg for pressed honey. Honey harvested in October exhibited higher levels of reducing sugars and minerals, while moisture and HMF levels varied across months. All quality parameters met acceptable standards. Notably, differences between hive types require further elaboration. Harvestinwasme and interval were identified as the most significant factors influencing honey yield and quality.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Atherosclerosis index and BMI: new predictors of cognitive function in ischemic survivors

Lingyan Zhao, Lingyan Zhao, Chenyang Qin et al.

BackgroundThe atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is a reliable surrogate marker for insulin resistance and is strongly associated with both stroke risk and prognosis. However, the associations of AIP and the composite index AIP-BMI with cognitive function among patients with ischemic stroke remain insufficiently studied.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 2,933 patients with ischemic stroke. Demographic and clinical data were collected from all participants. The AIP was calculated as log [TG (mmol/L)/HDL-C (mmol/L)], and cognitive function was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Multivariable linear regression models were applied to examine the associations between AIP (and AIP-BMI) and MMSE scores, adjusting for potential confounders. Stratified and sensitivity analyses were further conducted to evaluate the robustness of the findings.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 64.8 years (SD 10.2), and 2,009 (68.5%) were male. Each one-unit increase in AIP was associated with a 1.15-point reduction in MMSE score (p &lt; 0.001). Similarly, each one-unit increase in AIP-BMI corresponded to a 0.04-point decrease in MMSE score (p &lt; 0.001). The inverse associations remained consistent when AIP and AIP-BMI were analyzed by tertiles.ConclusionHigher levels of AIP and AIP-BMI are independently associated with poorer cognitive performance in patients with ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that dyslipidemia-related metabolic disturbances may contribute to post-stroke cognitive impairment.Clinical trial registrationhttps://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.html?proj=120858, identifier ChiCTR2100042721.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Spatial metabolomics reveals seed coat-specific accumulation of bioactive polyphenols in Setaria italica: Mechanistic insights from molecular docking and antioxidant profiling

Yao-ru Li, Lu-hong Yang, Xuan Zhao et al.

Setaria italica seed coat represents an underutilized source of bioactive polyphenols. This study employed an integrated approach combining spatial metabolomics, computational screening, and in vitro assays to characterize its polyphenol composition and antioxidant properties. UPLC-MS/MS analysis revealed distinct metabolite profiles with numerous polyphenols significantly enriched in seed coats relative to kernels. Molecular docking identified Homoplantaginin as a high-affinity ligand for catalase, with molecular dynamics simulations confirming complex stability. In vitro antioxidant assays demonstrated concentration-dependent scavenging activity of Homoplantaginin against ABTS•+, O₂•−, and •OH radicals. These findings highlight the potential of Setaria italica seed coat as a sustainable source of natural antioxidants for functional food applications, providing scientific basis for the valorization of this agricultural byproduct.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Acceptability of a Microbiome-Directed Food for the Management of Children with Uncomplicated Acute Malnutrition in Maradi, Niger: Two Randomized Crossover Trials

Susan M Rattigan, Ibrahim Ngoumboute Mbouombouo, Mohamed Antar Abdou Tahirou et al.

Background: A novel ready-to-use microbiome-directed food (MDF) has been developed for the management of acute malnutrition using ingredients that promote repair of the gut microbiota of undernourished children. Objectives: This study aims to assess the acceptability of MDF compared with standard nutritional care among children with acute malnutrition. Methods: Two randomized crossover trials consisting of 2 14-d periods of at-home consumption were conducted. Children aged 6 to <24 mo with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) or moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) were individually randomized in a 1:1 ratio to the sequence of receiving MDF then standard nutritional care, or vice versa. Standard nutritional care consisted of ready-to-use therapeutic food for SAM and ready-to-use supplementary food for MAM. The primary outcome was at-home acceptability, defined as the return of ≥75% of sachets empty after the 14-d at-home consumption period. The primary analysis was a noninferiority analysis, in which MDF was considered noninferior if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the difference in at-home acceptability comparing MDF with standard nutritional care was within −20 percentage points. Secondary outcomes included caregiver’s perception of the child’s liking, as well as caregiver willingness to use in the future and preference between the 2 foods. Results: In all, 128 children with SAM and 146 children with MAM were randomized. MDF was noninferior to standard nutritional care in terms of at-home acceptability among children with SAM (risk difference: −7.0; 95% CI lower bound: −11.6%) and among children with MAM (risk difference: −2.3%; 95% CI lower bound: −6.1%). There were no differences in caregiver willingness to use either food in future. Conclusions: MDF is acceptable for the management of acute malnutrition in children aged 6 to <24 mo in Niger and should be further tested in other populations with a high prevalence of acute malnutrition. Effectiveness of the novel food will be assessed in forthcoming trials. Trial registration number: This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT05551819.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Nutritional diseases. Deficiency diseases
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Синергія креативних просторів і стратегічного управління в розвитку підприємств індустрії гостинності

Ігор Комарніцький, Андрій Скіданов, Роман Цикалюк

Актуальність. Сьогодні питання оновлення стратегій розвитку індустрії гостинності позиціонується як актуальне та практично важливе. Сфера потребує інноваційного бачення концептуальних основ поступу. Мета. Метою статті є аналіз ключових аспектів стратегічного управління та креативних просторів як впливових факторів розвитку підприємств індустрії гостинності. Методи. У дослідженні використано методи аналітично-синтетичні, а також систематизації, узагальнення, абстракції. Результати. Розглянуто ключові стратегії та інноваційні можливості оптимізації функціонування індустрії гостинності. З’ясовано, що інфраструктурне забезпечення позиціонується визначальним чинником ефективності діяльності у сфері туризму. Обґрунтовано, що актуальна практика управління підприємствами сфери гостинності потребує переосмислення підходів до реалізації. У дослідженні виявлено системні тенденції регенерації сталого розвитку індустрії гостинності після кризи пандемії, відповідного соціального інституційного забезпечення та уніфікації стратегічних завдань щодо перспективного розвитку на рівні локацій і регіонів. Проаналізовано вплив сучасних цифрових рішень та інформаційно-комунікаційних технологій на можливості розвитку сфери гостинності. Висновки й обговорення. У дослідженні обґрунтовано необхідність оптимізації стратегічного управління розвитком підприємств індустрії гостинності. Наголошено на важливості створення сприятливих передумов для розвитку малого бізнесу та стартапів у сфері гостинності, а також впровадження проєктів державно-приватного партнерства. Сформовано моделі розвитку туристичної діяльності на основі асиміляції концептів креативності та стратегічного управління, що потенційно можуть застосовуватись у практичній діяльності.

Hospitality industry. Hotels, clubs, restaurants, etc. Food service, Commerce
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Optimizing soybean-pig integration zones in China: a multi-algorithm approach using random forest, LSTM, and clustering for feed grain and meat security balance

Zixiang Zhao, Yuanjing Fu, Haiyan Wang et al.

IntroductionThe rising concerns about food security and the increasing demands for meat-based diet in China have highlighted the imbalance between the supply and demand of its feed grains. Scholars view the imports of soybeans as an unsustainable way of ensuring feed grain security. Therefore, this study investigates the optimization of soybean and pig integration zones in China.MethodsThe study has adopted a multi algorithm approach based on Random Forest Model, LSTM model, KMeans clustering, and PCA to highlight the factors influencing the integration of feed grain plantation and meat security.ResultsThe results of the PCA report that consumption, production levels, land availability, and pig quantity play an instrumental role in defining the integration of soybeans and pig farming. The results indicate that LSTM offers accurate predictions regarding the integration zones.ConclusionThe study concludes that areas with high consumption of meat and large production volumes offer an opportunity to integrate soybean cultivation and pig farming in China.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
arXiv Open Access 2024
The impact of China's economic growth on poverty alleviation: From absolute to relative poverty

Yixun Kang, Ying Li

This paper investigates the extent to which China's economic growth and development influence poverty levels, focusing on the dichotomy between absolute and relative poverty. Leveraging data from sources like the World Bank, Statista, and Macrotrends, and employing economic frameworks such as the Lewis Model, Poverty Headcount Ratio, and Gini Coefficient, the study examines China's transformation from combating absolute poverty to addressing relative poverty. The findings highlight that robust economic growth from 2011 to 2022, driven by urban development and rural infrastructure investments, successfully eradicated absolute poverty and elevated rural incomes. However, this progress also exacerbated income inequality, as evidenced by a rising Gini Coefficient, complicating efforts to alleviate relative poverty. Through multidimensional analyses encompassing regional disparities, migration patterns, educational access, and societal factors, the paper underscores the dual impact of economic development on poverty alleviation. It concludes by advocating for policies that balance economic growth with equitable resource distribution to tackle persistent relative poverty and foster sustainable development.

en econ.GN
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Pest categorisation of Calepitrimerus baileyi

EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), Claude Bragard, Paula Baptista et al.

Abstract The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Bailey's rust mite, Calepitrimerus baileyi Keifer (Acariformes: Eriophyidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye performed by EFSA, in which C. baileyi was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. The eriophyid is known to occur in Africa, America, Asia, Europe (Greece and Serbia) and Oceania on Malus spp., which is the only confirmed host genus for C. baileyi. Plants for planting of Malus spp. are the main potential pathway for entry into the EU. However, plants for planting of the genus Malus Mill. are considered as high‐risk plants (EU 2018/2019) and therefore prohibited from entering the EU unless granted a country‐specific derogation. This is the case for the import of Malus spp. plants for planting from Serbia ((EU) 2020/1361 corrected by 2022/1309). Therefore, this derogation could provide a plausible entry pathway for C. baileyi into the EU. Climatic conditions and the ample availability of the host, Malus spp., in the EU are conducive for establishment, as proven by the occurrence of C. baileyi in Greece. However, the species is not reported as having an impact in Greece, despite reports of damage outside the EU. Measures to prevent further entry and spread of C. baileyi in the EU are available. C. baileyi satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. However, uncertainties about the distribution of C. baileyi within the EU and its impact on apples in the EU are considered key and affect the confidence of conclusions for this categorisation.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Chemical technology
arXiv Open Access 2023
Economic Complexity Limits Accuracy of Price Probability Predictions by Gaussian Distributions

Victor Olkhov

We discuss the economic reasons why the predictions of price and return statistical moments in the coming decades, in the best case, will be limited by their averages and volatilities. That limits the accuracy of the forecasts of price and return probabilities by Gaussian distributions. The economic origin of these restrictions lies in the fact that the predictions of the market-based n-th statistical moments of price and return for n=1,2,.., require the description of the economic variables of the n-th order that are determined by sums of the n-th degrees of values or volumes of market trades. The lack of existing models that describe the evolution of the economic variables determined by the sums of the 2nd degrees of market trades results in the fact that even predictions of the volatilities of price and return are very uncertain. One can ignore existing economic barriers that we highlight but cannot overcome or resolve them. The accuracy of predictions of price and return probabilities substantially determines the reliability of asset pricing models and portfolio theories. The restrictions on the accuracy of predictions of price and return statistical moments reduce the reliability and veracity of modern asset pricing and portfolio theories.

en q-fin.GN, econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2023
Export complexity, industrial complexity and regional economic growth in Brazil

Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso, Eva Yamila da Silva Catela, Guilherme Viegas et al.

Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few -- mainly developed urban places -- have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth.

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