General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (subgrid) scale meteorological processes will be affected. So-called 'downscaling' techniques have subsequently emerged as a means of bridging the gap between what climate modellers are currently able to provide and what impact assessors require. This article reviews the present generation of downscaling tools under four main headings: regression methods; weather pattern (circulation)-based approaches; stochastic weather generators; and limited-area climate models. The penultimate section summarizes the results of an international experiment to intercompare several precipitation models used for downscaling. It shows that circulation-based downscaling methods perform well in simulating present observed and model-generated daily precipitation characteristics, but are able to capture only part of the daily precipitation variability changes associated with model-derived changes in climate. The final section examines a number of ongoing challenges to the future development of climate downscaling.
Mateus Cavalcante Sá, Marco Aurélio Holanda de Castro
Building Information Modeling (BIM) é uma tecnologia promissora na indústria da construção civil. Percebe-se sua consolidação, e as aplicações dessa tecnologia tornam-se indispensáveis para o dia a dia de empresas e projetistas. No segmento de projetos de infraestrutura, especificamente no setor de saneamento, a metodologia BIM vem sendo implementada e disseminada. Uma implementação apropriada facilita os processos de projeto e construção, podendo resultar em obras de melhor qualidade e prazos reduzidos. Nesse sentido, este trabalho apresenta uma proposta de automatização da geração de redes de abastecimento de água em BIM, utilizando uma interface entre o sistema UFC e o Civil 3D. Essa interface foi desenvolvida por meio de rotinas em Dynamo e linguagem Python. Entre as funcionalidades, a interface permite realizar conversões de arquivos do formato .inp para .xlsx. Para validar sua funcionalidade, realizaram-se testes de geração automática em BIM de redes de abastecimento de diversos formatos, incluindo tubos e conexões dimensionados com o sistema UFC, o que permitiu uma avaliação mais ampla. Os resultados demonstraram a aplicabilidade da ferramenta, que constitui uma alternativa viável para integração em fluxos de trabalho.
Em sistemas de abastecimento de água (SAA), os grandes volumes de perda de água não apenas acarretam prejuízos financeiros, mas, também, representam desperdício de recursos naturais, sendo estes alguns dos principais desafios enfrentados pelo setor no Brasil. Neste estudo, realizou-se ranqueamento para avaliar os sistemas de abastecimento de água de 397 municípios em relação às perdas de água, por meio de indicadores de desempenho disponíveis no Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico (Sinisa). A análise foi conduzida em dois contextos: uma avaliação geral, abrangendo todos os municípios incluídos no estudo, e uma avaliação estratificada, considerando a divisão dos municípios em diferentes estratos populacionais. Os resultados indicaram os municípios com maiores oportunidades de melhoria em implementação de medidas de redução de perdas e os que podem ser utilizados como referência para coleta de informações sobre boas práticas de redução e controle de perdas de água.
Twenty years after the first explorations of mobile phone datasets, this article looks at the potential and limitations of geolocalised individual data from mobile phone datasets in order to capture the behavior of a population of cruise tourists stopping over in Normandy. We present here a new methodological protocol adapted to changes in the spatial and temporal resolutions of mobile phone data sets provided by the Flux-Vision Operator Orange, following the implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation (2018, European Union). Using anonymized mobile phone datasets, our method reveals spatiotemporal clusters of visitors, identifying a target population of cruise passengers, as well as their movements during their stopover in Normandy. We have also observed a cruise effect on the most attractive areas visited by this category of tourists, through preferential flows and the main durations of the majority of visits to the region over a 24-hour period. There is still some uncertainty as to the precise identification of the heritage and tourist sites visited in each of the major tourist areas identified. This uncertainty means that we need to cross-reference tourist data with mobile phone datasets (ticket offices, overnight stays, websites, booking platforms, social networks, etc.).
Spirituality and wellness are intertwined in Himalayan regions with each other.We can find a unique blend of spiritual traditions as well as healing practices in these regions. The experiences of tourists in Himalayan regions are very profound and transformative in various aspects. In order to seek spiritual solace and blessings, various travelers undertake pilgrimages to in these regions to various sites, temples, monasteries and routes. The intersection of spirituality, wellness, value creation, entrepreneurship, and sustainability in the Himalayan regions can have several implications. The findings highlight that the Himalayan highlands are regarded as being serene, beautiful natural areas for spiritual retreats. There is an emphasis on holistic well-being that goes beyond financial considerations by highlighting wellness and spirituality in entrepreneurial and environmental activities. In the Himalayan areas, integrating spirituality, wellness, and sustainability can encourage and support entrepreneurship. An innovative and creative attitude can be encouraged by placing a strong emphasis on values, awareness, and connectivity.
Paulo Duarte, Cristina Estevão, Ana María Campón-Cerro
et al.
The hospitality and travel sector has been one of the most affected sectors by Covid-19, which has resulted in a significant increase in the literature addressing the impact of the health crisis on tourism activities and tourists’ perceptions and behaviours. Traditionally, socio-demographic variables have been instrumental in understanding consumers’ needs and desires. However, during the pandemic, it has been unveiled that social and economic profiles have started to influence how tourists make decisions. Since studies on the changes in hotel choice during and after Covid-19 are still scarce, this article aims to assess the influence of socio-demographic variables on hotel choice based on data collected during the peak phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. A quantitative study was conducted using an online questionnaire that reached an international sample of 1113 individuals. The ANOVA and the t-test analysis results point out that socio-demographic variables under study are responsible for several differences in the evaluation of hotels. These findings reinforce socio-demographic attributes’ capability to understand customers’ preferences and decision-making despite the context.
Pore pressure is an essential parameter for establishing reservoir conditions, geological interpretation and drilling programs. Pore pressure prediction depends on information from various geophysical logs, seismic, and direct down-hole pressure measurements. However, a level of uncertainty accompanies the prediction of pore pressure because insufficient information is usually recorded in many wells. Applying machine learning (ML) algorithms can decrease the level of uncertainty of pore pressure prediction uncertainty in cases where available information is limited. In this research, several ML techniques are applied to predict pore pressure through the over-pressured Eocene reservoir section penetrated by four wells in the Mangahewa gas field, New Zealand. Their predictions substantially outperform, in terms of prediction performance, those generated using a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The geophysical logs used as input variables are sonic, temperature and density logs, and some direct pore pressure measurements were available at the reservoir level to calibrate the predictions. A total of 25,935 data records involving six well-log input variables were evaluated across the four wells. All ML methods achieved credible levels of pore pressure prediction performance. The most accurate models for predicting pore pressure in individual wells on a supervised basis are decision tree (DT), adaboost (ADA), random forest (RF) and transparent open box (TOB). The DT achieved root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.25 psi to 14.71 psi for the four wells. The trained models were less accurate when deployed on a semi-supervised basis to predict pore pressure in the other wellbores. For two wells (Mangahewa-03 and Mangahewa-06), semi-supervised prediction achieved acceptable prediction performance of RMSE of 130–140 psi; while for the other wells, semi-supervised prediction performance was reduced to RMSE > 300 psi. The results suggest that these models can be used to predict pore pressure in nearby locations, i.e. similar geology at corresponding depths within a field, but they become less reliable as the step-out distance increases and geological conditions change significantly. In comparison to other approaches to predict pore pressures, this study has identified that application of several ML algorithms involving a large number of data records can lead to more accurate prediction results.
Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction
<p>The current paper explores the relationship between urban regeneration, tourism and culture, and offers a common approach that each of these three concepts can bring. The paper proposes and develops a new and integrated conceptual analytical framework. The analysis uses the example of the capital Skopje, which provides a suitable framework for interpreting the process. The study uses combined research methods and analysis to obtain a critical synthesis. Skopje has catalyzed a new example of urban regeneration driven by tourism and the ‘Skopje 2014’ project. The results show that, except for the old city’s core, which was generally refurbished with the ‘Skopje 2014’ project, new tourist values were also promoted in other peripheral municipalities of the city. The number, spatial concentration and nationality of foreign tourists have changed in the analyzed period. As well, the findings indicate changes in the geography and business of hotels/accommodation establishments and their increasing use in recent years. This study fits into the theoretical debate on the determinants of tourism/culture-led urban regeneration and provides appropriate theoretical contributions to literature, as well as a set of recommendations that can be useful for public sector authorities and policymakers.</p>
Political institutions and public administration (General)
IVAN VILELA ANDRADE FIORINI, Cassiano Spaziani Pereira, HELCIO DUARTE PEREIRA
et al.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of Nitrogen (N) liberated by the early soybean straw, inoculated in function of dosage and application means of the inoculant, over the vegetative growth and grain yield of second crop corn, in succession. The hybrid corn Land® was sowed in January 1st, 2017 over the soybean straw from a former experiment in Sinop (MT). The trial design used was randomized blocks (DBC) with four replications and ten treatments. For the soybean treatments: witness without N application (only inoculated with Bradyrhizobium japonicum and B. elkanii); for the other treatments, it has been applied the dosage of 10 kg ha-1 of N in different phenological stages and ways of application (by haul at sowing; in V2 by haul and leaf fertilization; in V4 by haul and leaf fertilization; in R1 by haul and leaf fertilization; in R2 by haul and leaf fertilization). Plant height, stalk diameter, total chlorophyll and grain yield were evaluated. The N mineralization from the soybean straw is not enough to fulfill the corn N demand. Even though there were no significant differences among the treatments, the N application in V2 and R1 stages, by topdressing on former soybean, provided the highest grain yield of corn.
The Transylvanian salt was always in the center of attention from different points of view during different periods. In the past centuries, identifying the location and extent of this resource was the most important issue, since mining and trading were top priority activities. In recent times the formation of the salt deposits is mostly in the attention of the scientists, so salt is a subject of a continuous interest. Waters that get their mineralization by interacting with the salt beds have been less researched. They were in the center of attention mostly in the second part of the 19th century, while in the recent times just a few studies have dealt with this topic. Field observations carried out in 2016 revealed that the number of salt water occurrences at surface decreased over time. By exploring the causes why these sources have disappeared, we succeeded to gather valuable information about the appreciation of the salt waters during the centuries. Until the 14th century all salt products were considered as part of the land, while in the late Middle Ages this perception was replaced with the practice of regalia, the exclusive right of the king over all the salt resources, including the salt waters. The rights that the regalia empowered the kings were not equally applied over time. The most rigurous actions to protect the rights over this resource were applied during the 19th century. This study presents the legal background and regulation of usage of the salt waters in Transylvania from the Middle Ages until the 20th century. A case study is also presented in order to illustrate the rate of disappearance and present situation of the salt sites in the area South of Cluj-Napoca city.
En relación con la rápida suburbanización de las ciudades chinas, la variedad del entorno, los tipos de vivienda y las comunidades sociales que se han formado son cada vez más relevantes. Tomando Pekín como ejemplo, esta investigación ha estudiado su crecimiento espacial durante las últimas décadas, así como el incremento y la modificación de la población, las viviendas, las industrias y las instalaciones comerciales en los suburbios. Las áreas suburbanas entre la cuarta y la sexta carreteras de circunvalación se han convertido en las zonas con mayor desarrollo durante los últimos años. Concretamente, este estudio investigará la movilidad cotidiana en el sector de Shandi-Qinghe, Pekín, basándose en diarios de actividades de sus habitantes y datos de movilidad captados por GPS durante una semana. Se han estudiado los trayectos hacia el trabajo, los espacios donde se hacen las compras y otras acciones de ocio de tres grupos, definidos según el lugar de actividad laboral y residencia. Existen contrastes evidentes en los perfiles socioeconómicos, las rutas de viaje hacia el trabajo y el lugar de compras y de ocio entre esos tres grupos. En suma, el espacio suburbano de Pekín es cada día más complejo y maduro.
From mental maps and interviews based upon a field survey conducted at Sao Paulo's French International School in August 2014, this paper deals with the perception and representation of the city through the eyes of expatriate teenagers. This paper stresses and underlines the construction of an emotional and sensory territoriality and the perception of a symbolic space freed from any situational logic.
O “princípio da capacidade contributiva” ou “princípio da capacidade econômica”, vem determinado no art. 145, § 1o, da Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil de 1988 (CRFB), e é um dos alicerces do Direito Tributário. Este princípio estabelece que cada cidadão deverá contribuir para os gastos públicos na medida de sua possibilidade financeira. Ao tratar de tributos ambientais, o Direito Ambiental alia-se ao Direito Tributário em prol de um objetivo comum: a proteção ambiental. Contudo, diante deste cenário, verifica-se que o “princípio da capacidade contributiva” tem seu protagonismo deslocado, cedendo lugar para o princípio ambiental do “poluidor-pagador”, conforme o art. 225 da CRFB, a Lei 6.938/81 e diversos acordos internacionais. Sem negar a aplicação dos princípios tributários, em especial o “princípio da capacidade contributiva”, a partir de revisões doutrinárias e legais, o presente estudo tem como objetivo apresentar um inovador princípio tributário-ambiental, o “princípio da capacidade poluidora”, que insere um novo paradigma no sistema tributário.
Environmental sciences, Law in general. Comparative and uniform law. Jurisprudence
Radar inference of the bulk properties of glacier beds, most notably identifying basal
melting, is, in general, derived from the basal reflection coefficient. On
the scale of an ice sheet, unambiguous determination of basal reflection is
primarily limited by uncertainty in the englacial attenuation of the radio
wave, which is an Arrhenius function of temperature. Existing bed-returned
power algorithms for deriving attenuation assume that the attenuation rate is
regionally constant, which is not feasible at an ice-sheet-wide scale. Here we
introduce a new semi-empirical framework for deriving englacial attenuation,
and, to demonstrate its efficacy, we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet. A
central feature is the use of a prior Arrhenius temperature model to estimate
the spatial variation in englacial attenuation as a first guess input for the
radar algorithm. We demonstrate regions of solution convergence for two input
temperature fields and for independently analysed field campaigns. The
coverage achieved is a trade-off with uncertainty and we propose that the
algorithm can be "tuned" for discrimination of basal melt (attenuation loss
uncertainty ∼ 5 dB). This is supported by our physically
realistic ( ∼ 20 dB) range for the basal reflection coefficient.
Finally, we show that the attenuation solution can be used to predict the
temperature bias of thermomechanical ice sheet models and is in agreement
with known model temperature biases at the Dye 3 ice core.
During the last decades, the cross-border industrial area of "Longwy-Athus-Rodange" (located between France, Belgium and Luxembourg along the Chiers valley), has undergone profound economic and spatial changes. During the golden age of the mining and steel industry the area experienced urban growth. Changes in the mode of production from the mid 1960s, however, signified the beginning of a structural crisis in the steel industry. As a response, the three national governments agreed on a common strategy in order to boost the economy in the Chiers valley. However, the results of this policy were not up to the expectations and the conditions of urban growth have changed since then. The aim of this study is to examine the evolution of interactions between cities and industries in the cross-border area of "Longwy-Athus-Rodange" using a chronological approach. Our analysis reveals an increasing spatial differentiation along two scales: firstly, between cities on each side of the national borders and secondly, between the industrial areas and the emerging metropolis of Luxembourg City transforming the mono-industrial area into a periphery. This also suggests that national borders play an even more powerful role of differentiation than in the industrial period despite the increasing integration of the European Union.
ONĂRĂ Dalia Florentina, HOLOSTENCO Daniela, SUCIU Radu
During the last decades, the over-exploitation of sturgeon stocks for caviar production simultaneously with severe habitat
deteriorations has led to drastic declines in the natural populations of the Danube River. As a result of (i) decrease of sturgeon catches from 37.5 tons in year 2002 to 11.8 tons in year 2005, (ii) disrupted age class structure of sturgeon adult cohorts in years 2003 and 2004, and (iii) lack or low recruitment in the period 2001 – 2004, in 2005 the Romanian Government started the Supportive Stocking Program of Lower Danube River with hatchery-produced young sturgeons in Romania. Subsequently, in 2006 the commercial sturgeon fishing in Romania was
banned for a 10-year period. Genetic investigations were undertaken as an attempt to assess the genetic variability of the sturgeon brood fish, captured from the wild, used in two aquaculture facilities in Romania for obtaining juveniles for supportive stocking of LDR with young sturgeons produced by artificial propagation in year 2007. Our data indicate strong genetic diversity in case of stellate sturgeon and lack of diversity within the batch of beluga sturgeon brood fish captured in 2007, analyzed in the current study. Specific measures that could improve the management plan of sturgeon brood fish in the Romanian part of LDR in the light of recent FAO guidelines regarding the sturgeon hatchery practices and management
for release were suggested
Ethnology. Social and cultural anthropology, Science