Limits on the Carroll-Field-Jackiw electrodynamics from geomagnetic data
G. F. de Carvalho, M. Fillion, P. C. Malta
et al.
Lorentz-symmetry violation may be described via the CPT-odd, dimension-3, Carroll-Field-Jackiw term, which couples the electromagnetic fields to a constant 4-vector $k_{\rm AF}$ selecting a preferred direction in spacetime. We solve the field equations using the Green's method for a static point-like magnetic dipole and find the $k_{\rm AF}$-dependent corrections to the standard dipolar magnetic field that strongly dominates the near-Earth magnetic field. Given the very good agreement between current models and ground- and satellite-based geomagnetic data, our strongest constraints on the components of $k_{\rm AF}$ in the Sun-centered frame read $|(k_{\rm AF})_Z| \lesssim 4 \times 10^{-25} \, {\rm GeV}$ for $|(k_{\rm AF})_X|, |(k_{\rm AF})_Y| \lesssim 10^{-24} \, {\rm GeV}$ at the two-sigma level. This represents an improvement of about four orders of magnitude over earlier bounds based on other geophysical phenomena.
en
hep-ph, physics.geo-ph
Properties of large-amplitude kilometer-scale field-aligned currents at auroral latitudes, as derived from Swarm satellites
Y.-L. Zhou, H. Lühr
<p>High-resolution magnetic field recordings by the Swarm A and C spacecraft have been used to investigate the properties of field-aligned currents (FACs) at auroral latitudes down to their smallest scales (<span class="inline-formula"><1</span> km). Particularly suitable for that purpose are the magnetic field recordings, taken at a rate of 50 Hz, during the 2 weeks around the quasi-coplanar orbit configuration around 1 October 2021. We have split the recorded signal caused by FACs of along-track scales from 0.2 to 20 km into 8 quasi-logarithmically spaced ranges. Our investigations revealed that the kilometer-scale FACs (0.2–5 km) show quite different characteristics from those of the small-scale FACs (5–20 km). The kilometer-scale FACs exhibit short-lived (<span class="inline-formula"><1</span> s) randomly appearing large current spikes. They are confined to certain latitude ranges, which depend on local time. Small-scale FAC structures last for longer times (<span class="inline-formula">>10</span> s) and are distributed over larger latitude ranges. Their largest amplitudes are achieved at latitudes that overlap with the kilometer-scale FACs. The small-scale FACs have earlier been identified as Alfvén waves that are partly reflected at the ionosphere, and they can oscillate within the ionospheric Alfvén resonator. When at the same time additional Alfvén waves are launched from the magnetosphere they will interfere with the reflected. We suggest that the interaction between oppositely travelling Alfvén waves, when continuing sufficiently long, is generating the large-amplitude and short-lived kilometer-scale FACs.</p>
A Canadian perspective on the May 2024 space weather event
Fiori Robyn A. D., Nikolić Ljubomir, Nikitina Lidia
et al.
The May 2024 space weather disturbance is the latest (as of the time of writing) in a series of space weather events going back to 1859 that have documented impacts on critical infrastructure and technologies. Impacts on these systems range from minor degradation (e.g., static or noise in a communication link) to major, which was demonstrated by a complete blackout of the Hydro-Québec power system on 13 March 1989. This event heightened international awareness of space weather and motivated efforts toward enhanced resilience. This paper presents the May 2024 space weather event from a unique Canadian perspective, demonstrating the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre (CSWFC) approach to monitoring, forecasting, and alerting to characterize space weather phenomena and mitigate their impacts. Satellite data, numerical modelling of solar wind disturbances, and ground-based magnetometer and riometer data from instruments located in Canada demonstrate the progression of the event. In response to observations of enhanced solar activity, the CSWFC issued a major geomagnetic storm WATCH spanning an almost 3-day period, a major geomagnetic storm WARNING for more than 1 day that began at auroral latitudes but quickly expanded to cover all of Canada, and a solar proton WARNING for more than 2 days. Impacts to high-frequency communications and Global Navigation Satellite System positioning, navigation, and timing over Canada are evaluated using Transport Canada’s Civil Aviation Daily Occurrence Reporting System entries and reported outages of the Wide Area Augmentation System. This paper compares the May 2024 event with the March 1989 event and evaluates the latitude and magnetic local time distribution of the geomagnetic perturbations. In general, geomagnetic activity increased from southeastern to northwestern North America.
Triaxial Alignment Magnetometer Utilizing Free-Spin Precession in the Geomagnetic Range
Ge Jin, Tao Shi, Sheng Zou
In this paper, we present a triaxial alignment magnetometer based on free-spin precession deployed in the geomagnetic range. Existing vector measurement methods often require complex optical setups, heating structures, and laser modulation. This study addresses this challenge by employing a linearly polarized probe beam to induce atomic alignment and subsequently detecting the optical polarization rotation caused by the pulsed radio frequency field. The experiment is conducted in a paraffin-coated cell without buffer gas at room temperature, containing rubidium with natural abundance. We report triaxial measurements with a static magnetic field amplitude of approximately 50 $μ{\text{T}}$ (close to Earth's magnetic field), where the noise levels for each axis are approximately 5.3 ${\text{pT/}}\sqrt{\text{Hz}}$, 4.7 ${\text{pT/}}\sqrt{\text{Hz}}$, and 9.3 ${\text{pT/}}\sqrt{\text{Hz}}$ respectively. The proposed method demonstrates a simple structure suitable for cost-effective and versatile applications.
en
physics.atom-ph, physics.app-ph
Global insights on flood risk mitigation in arid regions using geomorphological and geophysical modeling from a local case study
Adel Kotb, Ayman I. Taha, Ahmed A. Elnazer
et al.
Abstract This research provides a comprehensive examination of flood risk mitigation in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on Wadi Al-Laith. It highlights the critical importance of addressing flood risks in arid regions, given their profound impact on communities, infrastructure, and the economy. Analysis of morphometric parameters ((drainage density (Dd), stream frequency (Fs), drainage intensity (Di), and infiltration number (If)) reveals a complex hydrological landscape, indicating elevated flood risk. due to low drainage density, low stream frequency, high bifurcation ratio, and low infiltration number. Effective mitigation strategies are imperative to protect both communities and infrastructure in Wadi Al-Laith. Geophysical investigations, using specialized software, improve the quality of the dataset by addressing irregularities in field data. A multi-layer geoelectric model, derived from vertical electrical sounding (VES) and time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) surveys, provides precise information about the geoelectric strata parameters such as electrical resistivity, layer thicknesses, and depths in the study area. This identifies a well-saturated sedimentary layer and a cracked rocky layer containing water content. The second region, proposed for a new dam, scores significantly higher at 56% in suitability compared to the first region’s 44%. The study advocates for the construction of a supporting dam in the second region with a height between 230 and 280 m and 800 m in length. This new dam can play a crucial role in mitigating flash flood risks, considering various design parameters. This research contributes to flood risk management in Saudi Arabia by offering innovative dam site selection approaches. It provides insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners involved in flood risk reduction, water resource management, and sustainable development in arid regions globally.
The Instantaneous Response of Geomagnetic Field, near-Earth IMF and Cosmic-Ray Intensity to Solar Flares
Jouni J. Takalo
We show using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) that the most energetic protons (greater than 60 MeV) in near-Earth IMF have a peak almost immediately (less than a day) after peak in solar flare index (SFI), while protons greater than 10 MeV peak one day after the SFI and protons greater than 1 MeV two days after the SFI. The geomagnetic indices AU, -AL, PC, Ap and -Dst peak after two to three days in SEAs after the peak in SFI. The auroral electrojet indices AU and -AL, however, have only low peaks. Especially, the response of the eastward electrojet, AU, to SFI is negligible compared to other geomagnetic indices. The SEAs of the SFI and cosmic ray counts (CR) show that the deepest decline in the CR intensity follows also with 2-3 day lag the maximum of the SFI for the Solar Cycles 20-24. The depth of the declines are related to the SFI strength of each cycle, i.e, the average decline is about 5% for the Cycles 21 and 22, but only 3% for the Cycle 24. The strongest Cycle 19, however, differs from the other cycles such that it has double-peaked decline and lasts longer than the decline of the other cycles. The double superposed epoch analyses show that the response of IMF Bv2, which is about two days, and CR to SFI are quite simultaneous, but sometimes Bv2 may peak somewhat earlier than the decline existing in CR.
en
astro-ph.SR, physics.space-ph
First direct observations of interplanetary shock impact angle effects on actual geomagnetically induced currents: The case of the Finnish natural gas pipeline system
Denny M. Oliveira, Eftyhia Zesta, Sergio Vidal-Luengo
The impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks on the Earth's magnetosphere can greatly disturb the geomagnetic field and electric currents in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. At high latitudes, the current systems most affected by the shocks are the auroral electrojet currents. These currents then generate ground geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that couple with and are highly detrimental to ground artificial conductors including power transmission lines, oil/gas pipelines, railways, and submarine cables. Recent research has shown that the shock impact angle, the angle the shock normal vector performs with the Sun-Earth line, plays a major role in controlling the subsequent geomagnetic activity. More specifically, due to more symmetric magnetospheric compressions, nearly frontal shocks are usually more geoeffective than highly inclined shocks. In this study, we utilize a subset (332 events) of a shock list with more than 600 events to investigate, for the first time, shock impact angle effects on the subsequent GICs right after shock impact (compression effects) and several minutes after shock impact (substorm-like effects). We use GIC recordings from the Finnish natural gas pipeline performed near the Mäntsälä compression station in southern Finland. We find that GIC peaks (> 5 A) occurring after shock impacts are mostly caused by nearly frontal shocks and occur in the post-noon/dusk magnetic local time sector. These GIC peaks are presumably triggered by partial ring current intensifications in the dusk sector. On the other hand, more intense GIC peaks (> 20 A) generally occur several minutes after shock impacts and are located around the magnetic midnight terminator. These GIC peaks are most likely caused by intense energetic particle injections from the magnetotail which frequently occur during substorms.
en
physics.space-ph, astro-ph.EP
Evaluating Near-Real Time Thermospheric Density Retrieval Methods from Precise Low Earth Orbit Spacecraft Ephemerides During Geomagnetic Storms
Charles Constant, Santosh Bhattarai, Indigo Brownhall
et al.
Characterizing the density of the thermosphere during geomagnetic storms is critical for both thermosphere modelling efforts and satellite operations. Accurate near-real time density estimates can feed into data assimilation schemes and provide operators with an early warning system for storm-triggered drag increases. This study evaluates two methods for generating near-real time thermospheric density estimates: the Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR) method and the Precise Orbit Determination (POD)-accelerometry method. Using accelerometer-derived densities from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) and Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) spacecraft as truth over 45 geomagnetic storms, the POD accelerometry method was found to surpass EDR density retrieval as well as one commonly used atmospheric density model (DTM2000) in terms of mean absolute percentage error (by 113.30\% and 130.64\%, respectively). The POD accelerometry method is comparable, albeit slightly worse, than two other models: JB2008 (-8.74\%) and NRLMSISE-00 (-22.74\%). These results highlight the potential for near-real-time density inversion to rival models driven by post-processed indices, which outperform these same models in an operational setting, where they rely on forecasted or nowcasted indices. By applying the POD accelerometry method along the orbits of three LEO satellite orbits during 80 geomagnetic storms (2001--2024), this study illustrates the potential of POD accelerometry as a near-real-time resource for the thermosphere and satellite operations community. The accompanying codebase facilitates broader adoption of these techniques, advancing both storm-time modelling and operational response capabilities.
en
physics.space-ph, astro-ph.EP
Sparse Variational Contaminated Noise Gaussian Process Regression with Applications in Geomagnetic Perturbations Forecasting
Daniel Iong, Matthew McAnear, Yuezhou Qu
et al.
Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine-learning methods for kernel-based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal likelihood function to better account for heteroscedastic variance and outlier noise. We propose a scalable inference algorithm based on the Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (SVGP) method for fitting sparse Gaussian process regression models with contaminated normal noise on large datasets. We examine an application to geomagnetic ground perturbations, where the state-of-the-art prediction model is based on neural networks. We show that our approach yields shorter prediction intervals for similar coverage and accuracy when compared to an artificial dense neural network baseline.
Turbulence properties and kinetic signatures of electron in Kelvin-Helmholtz waves during a geomagnetic storm
Harsha Gurram, Jason R. Shuster, Li-Jen Chen
et al.
We present a comprehensive study of Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft encounter with KHI during a geomagnetic storm, focusing on elucidating key turbulence properties and reconnection signatures observed at the edges of KH vortices. The spectral slope for electric field stays approximately constant for frequencies below the ion cyclotron frequency and exhibits a break around the lower hybrid frequency, indicating wave activity. Furthermore, MMS observes a current sheet accompanied by intense electron jets and features consistent with strong guide-field asymmetric reconnection across the magnetopause. Substantial agyrotropy (by a factor of 10) in electron distribution functions is observed in the reconnecting current sheet and at the edges of KH. Our observation presents a multi-scale view into KH turbulence under strongly driven conditions and into the dynamics occurring at electron dissipation scales.
en
physics.space-ph, physics.plasm-ph
An impulsive geomagnetic effect from an early-impulsive flare
Hugh S. Hudson, Edward. W. Cliver, Lyndsay Fletcher
et al.
The geomagnetic "solar flare effect" (SFE) results from excess ionization in the Earth's ionosphere, famously first detected at the time of the Carrington flare in 1859. This indirect detection of a flare constituted one of the first cases of "multimessenger astronomy," whereby solar ionizing radiation stimulates ionospheric currents. Well-observed SFEs have few-minute time scales and perturbations of >10 nT, with the greatest events reaching above 100 nT. In previously reported cases the SFE time profiles tend to resemble those of solar soft X-ray emission, which ionizes the D-region; there is also a less-well-studied contribution from Lyman-alpha. We report here a specific case, from flare SOL2024-03-10 (M7.4), in which an impulsive SFE deviated from this pattern. This flare contained an "early impulsive" component of exceptionally hard radiation, extending up to gamma-ray energies above 1 MeV, distinctly before the bulk of the flare soft X-ray emission. We can characterize the spectral distribution of this early-impulsive component in detail, thanks to the modern extensive wavelength coverage. A more typical gradual SFE occurred during the flare's main phase. We suggest that events of this type warrant exploration of the solar physics in the "impulse response" limit of very short time scales.
en
astro-ph.SR, physics.space-ph
Characteristics and Sources of Intense Geoelectric Fields in the United States: Comparative Analysis of Multiple Geomagnetic Storms
Xueling Shi, Michael D. Hartinger, Joseph B. H. Baker
et al.
Abstract Intense geoelectric fields during geomagnetic storms drive geomagnetically induced currents in power grids and other infrastructure, yet there are limited direct measurements of these storm‐time geoelectric fields. Moreover, most previous studies examining storm‐time geoelectric fields focused on single events or small geographic regions, making it difficult to determine the typical source(s) of intense geoelectric fields. We perform the first comparative analysis of (a) the sources of intense geoelectric fields over multiple geomagnetic storms, (b) using 1‐s cadence geoelectric field measurements made at (c) magnetotelluric survey sites distributed widely across the United States. Temporally localized intense perturbations in measured geoelectric fields with prominences (a measure of the relative amplitude of geoelectric field enhancement above the surrounding signal) of at least 500 mV/km were detected during geomagnetic storms with Dst minima (Dstmin) of less than −100 nT from 2006 to 2019. Most of the intense geoelectric fields were observed in resistive regions with magnetic latitudes greater than 55° even though we have 167 sites located at lower latitudes during geomagnetic storms of −200 nT ≤ Dstmin < −100 nT. Our study indicates intense short‐lived (<1 min) and geoelectric field perturbations with periods on the order of 1–2 min are common. Most of these perturbations cannot be resolved with 1‐min data because they correspond to higher frequency or impulsive phenomena that vary on timescales shorter than that sampling interval. The sources of geomagnetic perturbations inducing these intense geoelectric fields include interplanetary shocks, interplanetary magnetic field turnings, substorms, and ultralow frequency waves.
Meteorology. Climatology, Astrophysics
Integrated Geophysical Assessment of Groundwater Potential in Southwestern Saudi Arabia
Ahmed Mohamed, Ahmed Mohamed, Mohamed Al Deep
et al.
Saudi Arabia is seeking fresh groundwater resources to face the increase in anthropogenic activities. The groundwater storage variations and occurrence were investigated and the surface and subsurface structures influencing the groundwater resources in the research area were defined using a combined study of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, aeromagnetic data, and electrical resistivity data with other relevant datasets. Results are: The groundwater storage fluctuation is calculated at −0.34 ± 0.01 mm/yr during the period 04/2002-12/2021. The area is receiving an average annual rainfall rate of 117.6 mm during the period 2002 to 2019. Three structural trends, defined in the directions of NS, NNW, and NNE are cutting the sedimentary cover and the basement rocks. The sedimentary cover ranges from 0 to 1.2 km thick. Vertical electrical sounding results indicate three main geoelectric layers: the surface geoelectrical layer of higher resistivity values (428-9626 Ω. m) is made up of unconsolidated Quaternary sediments; the water-bearing layer of saturated sands with a resistivity range between 5.1 and 153 Ω. m and with depths vary from 1 to 94 m, and highly fractured basement rocks with resistivity values ranging from 813 to 6030 Ω. m. The integrated results are useful in providing a comprehensive image of the study area’s surface and subsurface structures, as well as groundwater potential in the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia. Our integrated approach provides a reproducible model for assessing groundwater potential in arid and semiarid areas.
Localized Origin at the Core‐Mantle Boundary of the 1969 Geomagnetic Impulse
R. M. Blangsbøll, C. C. Finlay, C. Kloss
Abstract The 1969 geomagnetic impulse provided the first compelling evidence for rapid changes in Earth's core‐generated magnetic field, taking place on timescales of a few years or less. We show here it originated at the core‐mantle boundary (CMB) largely as a localized change in the field acceleration under north and central America. We find the impulse events in 1969 and 2017 involved similar amplitudes of field acceleration change with similar localized dipole structures. However in 1969 the acceleration change pattern was north‐south rather than east‐west oriented, and it propagated poleward rather than westward. Moreover, there was a distinctive local surge in the CMB secular variation leading up to the 1969 event. We propose the 1969 impulse resulted from hydromagnetic waves arriving at the CMB that were triggered by a convective burst near to the core surface; this event involved localized flux expulsion and inward propagating waves.
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
Large Geomagnetically Induced Currents at Equator Caused by an Interplanetary Magnetic Cloud
B. Nilam, S. Tulasi Ram
Abstract Here, we report a rare observation of an extremely large and rapid change of geomagnetic field (dB/dt), a proxy for the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), at the equator caused by a sudden drop in solar wind density at the front boundary of a magnetic cloud (MC) during the great 31 March 2001 storm. The horizontal component at the Indian equatorial station, Tirunelveli, recorded a sharp decline of ∼350 nT in just 5 min with a peak dB/dt exhibiting a concerning value of 136 nT/min, a possible GIC risk to the electric power systems. The responsible physical mechanisms were examined through magneto‐hydrodynamic model simulations and found that a prompt penetration of strong westward‐overshielding electric fields and ionospheric currents at the equator play a dominant role. This study provides some new insights into the extent of extreme geomagnetic field changes that can occur at the equatorial region due to solar wind density reduction at MC, which can have potential impacts on the electric power grid systems.
Meteorology. Climatology, Astrophysics
Signatures of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and Ionospheric Scintillations from Magnetometer and GNSS Observations in the Indian Longitudes during the Space Weather Events of Early September 2017
Ram Kumar Vankadara, Sampad Kumar Panda, Christine Amory-Mazaudier
et al.
Scintillation due to ionospheric plasma irregularities remains a challenging task for the space science community as it can severely threaten the dynamic systems relying on space-based navigation services. In the present paper, we probe the ionospheric current and plasma irregularity characteristics from a latitudinal arrangement of magnetometers and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations from the equator to the far low latitude location over the Indian longitudes, during the severe space weather events of 6–10 September 2017 that are associated with the strongest and consecutive solar flares in the 24th solar cycle. The night-time influence of partial ring current signatures in ASYH and the daytime influence of the disturbances in the ionospheric E region electric currents (D<sub>iono</sub>) are highlighted during the event. The total electron content (TEC) from the latitudinal GNSS observables indicate a perturbed equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) condition on 7 September, due to a sequence of M-class solar flares and associated prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs), whereas the suppressed EIA on 8 September with an inverted equatorial electrojet (EEJ) suggests the driving disturbance dynamo electric current (Ddyn) corresponding to disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs) penetration in the E region and additional contributions from the plausible storm-time compositional changes (O/N2) in the F-region. The concurrent analysis of the D<sub>iono</sub> and EEJ strengths help in identifying the pre-reversal effect (PRE) condition to seed the development of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) during the local evening sector on the storm day. The severity of ionospheric irregularities at different latitudes is revealed from the occurrence rate of the rate of change of TEC index (ROTI) variations. Further, the investigations of the hourly maximum absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of ROTI from the reference quiet days’ levels and the timestamps of ROTI peak magnitudes substantiate the severity, latitudinal time lag in the peak of irregularity, and poleward expansion of EPBs and associated scintillations. The key findings from this study strengthen the understanding of evolution and the drifting characteristics of plasma irregularities over the Indian low latitudes.
Secular variation signals in magnetic field gradient tensor elements derived from satellite-based geomagnetic virtual observatories
Magnus Danel Hammer, Christopher C. Finlay, Nils Olsen
We present local time-series of the magnetic field gradient tensor elements at satellite altitude derived using a Geomagnetic Virtual Observatory (GVO) approach. Gradient element timeseries are computed in 4-monthly bins on an approximately equal-area distributed worldwide network. This enables global investigations of spatio temporal variations in the gradient tensor elements. Series are derived from data collected by the Swarm and CHAMP satellite missions, using vector field measurements and their along-track and east-west differences, when available. We find evidence for a regional secular variation impulse (jerk) event in 2017 in the first time derivative of the gradient tensor elements. This event is located at low latitudes in the Pacific region. It has a similar profile and amplitude regardless of the adopted data selection criteria and is well fit by an internal potential field. Spherical harmonic models of the internal magnetic field built from the GVO gradient series show lower scatter in near-zonal harmonics compared with models built using standard GVO vector field series. The GVO gradient element series are an effective means of compressing the spatio temporal information gathered by low-Earth orbit satellites on geomagnetic field variations, which may prove useful for core flow inversions and in geodynamo data assimilation studies.
International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation
P. Alken, E. Thébault, C. D. Beggan
et al.
Abstract In December 2019, the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group (V-MOD) adopted the thirteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). This IGRF updates the previous generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2015.0, a main field model for epoch 2020.0, and a predictive linear secular variation for 2020.0 to 2025.0. This letter provides the equations defining the IGRF, the spherical harmonic coefficients for this thirteenth generation model, maps of magnetic declination, inclination and total field intensity for the epoch 2020.0, and maps of their predicted rate of change for the 2020.0 to 2025.0 time period.
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Geodesy
Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
Dipali S. Burud, Rajmal Jain, Arun K. Awasthi
et al.
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic activity (aa index) during the descending phase of a given cycle. A very strong correlation of the SLD (R=$0.68$) and aa index (R=$0.86$) during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle $25$ to be 99.13$\pm$ 14.97 and 104.23$\pm$ 17.35 using SLD and aa index, respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle $25$ and reveal that the solar cycle $25$ will be weaker than cycle $24$. Further we derive that the maximum of cycle $25$ is likely to occur between February and March 2024. While the aa index has been used extensively in the past, this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.
Magnetometer in-flight offset accuracy for the BepiColombo spacecraft
D. Schmid, F. Plaschke, Y. Narita
et al.
<p>Recently the two-spacecraft mission BepiColombo launched to explore the plasma and magnetic field environment of Mercury. Both spacecraft, the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) and the Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter (MMO, also referred to as Mio), are equipped with fluxgate magnetometers, which have proven to be well-suited to measure the magnetic field in space with high precision. Nevertheless, accurate magnetic field measurements require proper in-flight calibration. In particular the magnetometer offset, which relates relative fluxgate readings into an absolute value, needs to be determined with high accuracy.
Usually, the offsets are evaluated from observations of Alfvénic fluctuations in the pristine solar wind, if those are available. An alternative offset determination method, which is based on the observation of highly compressional fluctuations instead of incompressible Alfvénic fluctuations, is the so-called mirror mode technique. To evaluate the method performance in the Hermean environment, we analyze four years of MESSENGER (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEophysics and Ranging) magnetometer data, which are calibrated by the Alfvénic fluctuation method, and compare it with the accuracy and error of the offsets determined by the mirror mode method in different plasma environments around Mercury.
We show that the mirror mode method yields the same offset estimates and thereby confirms its applicability. Furthermore, we evaluate the spacecraft observation time within different regions necessary to obtain reliable offset estimates. Although the lowest percentage of strong compressional fluctuations are observed in the solar wind, this region is most suitable for an accurate offset determination with the mirror mode method. 132 h of solar wind data are sufficient to determine the offset to within <span class="inline-formula">0.5 nT</span>, while thousands of hours are necessary to reach this accuracy in the magnetosheath or within the magnetosphere.
We conclude that in the solar wind the mirror mode method might be a good complementary approach to the Alfvénic fluctuation method to determine the (spin-axis) offset of the Mio magnetometer.</p>