Genetic risk score informed re-evaluation of phenotype quality control to maximize power in epidemiological studies: application to lung function
Jing Chen, Nick Shrine, Abril G Izquierdo
et al.
Introduction
Clinical guidelines may reduce statistical power in epidemiological studies by discarding informative measures. Epidemiological studies of lung function may discard one-third to one-half of participants due to spirometry measures deemed "low quality" using criteria adapted from clinical practice.
Objectives
To optimise the signal-to-noise ratio in epidemiological studies of lung function, we aimed to develop a data-driven method to refine spirometry quality control (QC) criteria.
Methods
We proposed a genetic risk score (GRS) informed strategy to categorise spirometer blows by quality criteria. GRS was built using SNPs associated with lung function traits in non-UK Biobank cohorts. In the UK Biobank, we applied a step-wise testing of the GRS association across groups of spirometry blows stratified by acceptability flags to rank the blow quality. We reassessed QC criteria by comparing the genetic associations under different acceptability flags and repeatability thresholds to determine the trade-off between sample size and measurement error.
Results
We found that including blows previously excluded by strict QC criteria would maximise the statistical power for genome-wide association study and retain acceptable precision in the UK Biobank. This approach allowed the inclusion of 29% more participants compared to the strictest clinical guidelines and demonstrated genetic signals could be identified earlier.
Conclusions
Our GRS-based method offers an important framework to challenge prevailing practices that exclude informative measures and limit power in epidemiological studies.
Demography. Population. Vital events
The Impact of Trade and Financial Openness on Operational Efficiency and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Banks
Haibo Wang, Lutfu Sua, Burak Dolar
This paper examines the relationship between trade and financial openness, as well as the operational efficiency and growth of Turkish banks, from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing CAMELG-DEA and dynamic panel data analysis, the study finds that increased trade openness significantly enhances banking efficiency, primarily due to heightened demand for banking services related to international trade. Financial openness further boosts growth by facilitating capital flows, expanding banks' credit portfolios, and increasing fee income from cross-border transactions. However, poverty levels have a negative impact on bank performance, reducing financial intermediation and innovation opportunities. The results underscore the crucial role of trade and financial openness in fostering banking sector growth in developing economies.
Google and China's Trade
Cui Hu, Ben G. Li
Although Google is blocked in China, Chinese provinces export significantly more to foreign countries that recently searched for them (up to 12 months prior). This attention premium is found mainly at the extensive margin of exports, larger in products that are relatively homogeneous, substitutable, and upstream in the production process, and more pronounced during the COVID pandemic and during the holiday season. The attention premium is not found for Chinese imports from the rest of the world. Our findings attest to online attention as a scarce resource in international trade allocated by importers.
Understanding Carbon Trade Dynamics: A European Union Emissions Trading System Perspective
Avirup Chakraborty
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the worlds largest cap-and-trade carbon market, is central to EU climate policy. This study analyzes its efficiency, price behavior, and market structure from 2010 to 2020. Using an AR-GARCH framework, we find pronounced price clustering and short-term return predictability, with 60.05 percent directional accuracy and a 70.78 percent hit rate within forecast intervals. Network analysis of inter-country transactions shows a concentrated structure dominated by a few registries that control most high-value flows. Country-specific log-log regressions of price on traded quantity reveal heterogeneous and sometimes positive elasticities exceeding unity, implying that trading volumes often rise with prices. These results point to persistent inefficiencies in the EU ETS, including partial predictability, asymmetric market power, and unconventional price-volume relationships, suggesting that while the system contributes to decarbonization, its trading dynamics and price formation remain imperfect.
Genetic diversity assessment and morpho-agronomic characterization of mungbean (Vigna radiata (L.) Walp.) germplasm using multivariate analysis
Mohammad Irfan, M. Ashraf Bhat, Uzma Rashid
et al.
Abstract The present study assessed the phenotypic and genetic diversity of 115 mungbean (Vigna radiata L.) genotypes using a combination of qualitative, quantitative, and multivariate analyses. Frequency distribution of qualitative traits revealed substantial morphological variation, with most genotypes exhibiting good early plant vigor, semi-erect plant type, indeterminate growth habit, and green reniform leaves. Traits such as curved pods, pod pubescence, above-canopy pod position, and lustrous seed surfaces were prevalent, while seed coat color was predominantly green or olive, and seed shape was nearly equally distributed between oblong and oval. Quantitative traits showed wide variability, with early flowering and maturity observed in several genotypes. Best Linear Unbiased Predictions (BLUPs) across 12 environments revealed significant variability in days to flowering, maturity, pod length, seed number, and seed weight, with moderate to high heritability for most traits, particularly seed diameter and hundred-seed weight. Mineral nutrient content also varied broadly, though heritability was generally low for micronutrients like iron, zinc, and manganese. Correlation analysis highlighted strong positive associations among key agronomic traits such as pod length, pods per plant, seed size, and plant height, whereas seed diameter showed negative correlations with multiple yield components, indicating potential trade-offs. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified seed diameter, seed size, hundred-seed weight, and days to flowering and maturity as the major contributors to phenotypic variation. The PCA biplots and scatter plots revealed distinct genotype groupings and identified outliers such as genotypes 57, 83, and 110 with unique trait profiles, offering opportunities for trait-specific selection. A circular phylogenetic tree further confirmed substantial intra-specific diversity and identified genetically distinct genotypes (e.g., 14, 27, 78), reinforcing their potential utility in breeding programs. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of mungbean diversity and support the selection of promising genotypes for future genetic improvement.
Does fortune follow function? Exploring how consumer preferences drive the functional trait composition of the global songbird trade
Ryan J. Almeida, Alexandra N. Mazza, Julie L. Lockwood
Abstract Defaunation and extinction undermine the resilience and functioning of ecological communities and ecosystems. Relative to other disturbances, overexploitation for the global wildlife trade presents a unique case of trait‐based selection, as demand for specific individuals is often tied to unique morphological or aesthetic traits desired by consumers (‘market traits’). Because evolutionary history leads to species that share both market and functional traits, we posit that non‐random patterns of exploitation will result in non‐random loss of functional diversity. We applied a trait‐based framework to the global songbird trade for 4616 species, 148 of which are plausibly threatened by the trade. We quantified select market traits, such as unique coloration and song quality, and ecological traits related to body size, diet, and foraging strategy to assess whether the trade disproportionately threatens particular functional groups. We additionally looked for patterns of association between market traits and functional traits to assess whether selection on certain market traits could drive selection on associated functional traits. We found that overexploited birds are a distinct functional subset of the global songbird pool, with the trade disproportionately threatening large bodied, frugivorous, and seed eating birds. Across all songbirds, there were multiple non‐random associations between market traits and functional traits, with the strongest associations observed among trade‐threatened birds; this was consistent with our theory that consumer‐driven selection on market traits could theoretically result in selection on functional traits. However, there was mixed evidence for this hypothesis at a global scale, suggesting that disproportionate threat to functional diversity may be more likely in regions where there is heavy demand for associated market traits. Policy implications. Our results highlight the need for increased focus on the mechanistic drivers of trait‐based selection on the consumer side of wildlife trade, and how patterns of overexploitation can systematically affect ecological communities and ecosystem services. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
Human ecology. Anthropogeography, Ecology
La organización gremial del Trabajo Social en el Valle del Cauca, Caldas y Bogotá: análisis histórico-crítico
Nora Liliana Guevara Peña, Sergio Andrés Quintero Londoño, Ricardo Plazas Neisa
This article attempts to account for the emergence and development of three trade associations in Colombia, the Association of Social Workers of the Valley, the Association of Social Workers of Caldas and the Association of Social Work Graduates of Bogotá and the Region, within the framework of the development of the capitalist mode of production from the 1950s to the present. Methodology. A qualitative socio-historical analysis is carried out based on the analysis of more than 4,000 files from the associations and semi-structured interviews, triangulation was made between the theoretical-methodological foundations of the Marxist tradition, the information collected and the contrast with the stories. Results. With the analysis of the historical processes of the three associations, common interests and modernizing ideas are identified in them regarding working conditions, defense of Social Work, professional training and research, as well as a need for critical professional renewal.
Social sciences (General)
No effect of testosterone or sexual ornamentation on telomere dynamics: A case study and meta‐analyses
Gregory T. Taylor, Alexandra McQueen, Justin R. Eastwood
et al.
Abstract Life‐history theory predicts that reproductive investments are traded‐off against self‐maintenance. Telomeres, the protective caps on the ends of chromosomes, offer a promising avenue for assessing life‐history trade‐offs, as they shorten in response to stressors and are predictive of the remaining lifespan. In males, testosterone frequently mediates life‐history trade‐offs, in part, through its effects on sexual ornamentation, which is an important aspect of reproductive investment. However, studies of within‐individual associations between telomere dynamics and sexual ornamentation are limited in number and have produced mixed results. Furthermore, most such studies have been observational, making it difficult to discern the nature of any causal relationship. To address this, we used short‐acting testosterone implants in free‐living male superb fairy‐wrens (Malurus cyaneus) to stimulate the production of a sexual ornament: early moult into a costly blue breeding plumage. We found no evidence that elevated testosterone, and the consequent earlier moult into breeding plumage, accelerated telomere shortening. We therefore followed up with a systematic review and two meta‐analyses (28 studies, 54 effect sizes) exploring the associations between telomeres and (1) testosterone and (2) sexual ornamentation. In line with our experimental findings, neither meta‐analysis showed an overall correlation of testosterone or sexual ornamentation with telomere length or telomere dynamics. However, meta‐regression showed that experimental, compared to observational, studies reported greater evidence of trade‐offs. Our meta‐analyses highlight the need for further experimental studies to better understand potential responses of telomere length or telomere dynamics to testosterone or sexual ornamentation.
Trading and wealth evolution in the Proof of Stake protocol
Wenpin Tang
With the increasing adoption of the Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain, it is timely to study the economy created by such blockchain. In this chapter, we will survey recent progress on the trading and wealth evolution in a cryptocurrency where the new coins are issued according to the PoS protocol. We first consider the wealth evolution in the PoS protocol assuming no trading, and focus on the problem of decentralisation. Next we consider each miner's trading incentive and strategy through the lens of optimal control, where the miner needs to trade off PoS mining and trading. Finally, we study the collective behavior of the miners in a PoS trading environment by a mean field model. We use both stochastic and analytic tools in our study. A list of open problems are also presented.
Large-brained birds lay smaller but heavier clutches
Shaobin Li, Xiaoman Liu, Guopan Li
et al.
The brain is among the most energetically costly organs in vertebrates, and thus trade-offs have been hypothesized to exert constraints on brain size evolution. The energy trade-off hypothesis (ETH) predicts that reducing the energy consumption of reproduction or other costly tissues should compensate for the cost of a large brain. Egg production in birds requires a large proportion of the total energy budget, and a clutch mass in some bird species can outweigh the body mass of the female. To date, this hypothesis has mainly been tested in mammals and ectothermic animals such as anurans and fishes. We collated data on adult brain size, body mass and egg-production traits such as clutch size, egg mass and annual broods from published studies, and conducted a phylogenetic comparative test of the interplay between egg-production investment and brain size evolution across bird species. After controlling for phylogenetic relationships and body size, we find a negative correlation between brain size and clutch size across 1395 species, which favored ETH. However, when egg mass was integrated in models, positive associations were detected between brain size and mass of eggs (via egg mass, clutch mass and annual total egg mass). Our results suggest that brain size trades off against egg-production only via certain aspects (e.g., clutch size). By contrast, a positive relationship between brain size and total egg reproduction (e.g., clutch mass and annual total egg mass) implied increased total energy budget outweighing energy allocation across bird species. Our study shows that there is no general energy trade-off between brain size and egg-reproduction investment, and suggests that brain size evolution follows mixed strategies across bird species.
Examining Organizational Trust and Psychological Contracts Between Trade Associations and Their Members
William Brent Felstead, Kenneth Cromer
Management guru Peter Drucker describes trust as an essential commodity of all businesses within all levels of business operations and relationships. Trust must be mutual and reciprocal between shareholder and managers, employees and employers, sellers and buyers, and government and business. The topic of trust has been studied for years within the fore mentioned relationships, and although unknown until recently, has now been examined between trade associations and their respected members. Psychological Contracts, Organizational trust and an availability of alternatives have been determined to be a crucial component in the make-up of trade associations and their success. The practical implications for general management from this study are substantial as Associations, commonly referred to as trade associations, are a force in the American economy as well as in global industry. With approximately 22,000 national trade associations, 115,000 associations with state, regional, or local scope in the United States, and approximately 22,300 multinational, binational, and non-US national associations operate internationally. This study not only contributes to the literature but can be used in application in general management of the trade association model to increase trust in member relations, member attraction and member retention.
Assessing consumer empowerment and influencing factors in Central Bangka Regency: a multidimensional approach
Muhammad Faisal Akbar, Devi Valeriani, Panggio Restu Wilujeng
et al.
The rapid development of trade technology in Indonesia exposes consumers to potential exploitation during purchasing. This study examines consumer empowerment in Central Bangka Regency using primary data from 88 respondents across four districts. The Consumer Empowerment Index (CEI) value of 38.53, classified as "understand," indicates a fundamental grasp of rights and obligations and reveals room for growth in consumer empowerment. The analysis shows higher empowerment during the purchase phase, with informed decision-making and support for local businesses. However, a weakness emerges in the post-purchase phase, as consumers are less likely to voice experiences or criticize unsatisfactory products, potentially impacting product quality and customer satisfaction. Regression analysis reveals that only years of schooling and age significantly influence the CEI, while the location of residence, gender, and income group do not have significant effects. The model's low R-squared value suggests potential refinement through additional variables or research. These findings provide valuable insights for the government and stakeholders to enhance Central Bangka Regency's consumer empowerment. Focusing on increasing consumer awareness and engagement in the post-purchase phase through targeted educational campaigns, consumer rights workshops, and accessible complaint channels is essential. However, it is crucial to recognize that observed associations do not imply causation and further research is required to establish causal relationships and explore other factors contributing to consumer empowerment.
Economic growth, development, planning, Finance
TRADE: Object Tracking with 3D Trajectory and Ground Depth Estimates for UAVs
Pedro F. Proença, Patrick Spieler, Robert A. Hewitt
et al.
We propose TRADE for robust tracking and 3D localization of a moving target in cluttered environments, from UAVs equipped with a single camera. Ultimately TRADE enables 3d-aware target following. Tracking-by-detection approaches are vulnerable to target switching, especially between similar objects. Thus, TRADE predicts and incorporates the target 3D trajectory to select the right target from the tracker's response map. Unlike static environments, depth estimation of a moving target from a single camera is a ill-posed problem. Therefore we propose a novel 3D localization method for ground targets on complex terrain. It reasons about scene geometry by combining ground plane segmentation, depth-from-motion and single-image depth estimation. The benefits of using TRADE are demonstrated as tracking robustness and depth accuracy on several dynamic scenes simulated in this work. Additionally, we demonstrate autonomous target following using a thermal camera by running TRADE on a quadcopter's board computer.
Decentralized and stable matching in Peer-to-Peer energy trading
Nitin Singha, V Shreyas, Sandeep Kumar
In peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, a secured infrastructure is required to manage trade and record monetary transactions. A central server/authority can be used for this. But there is a risk of central authority influencing the energy price. So blockchain technology is being preferred as a secured infrastructure in P2P trading. Blockchain provides a distributed repository along with smart contracts for trade management. This reduces the influence of central authority in trading. However, these blockchain-based systems still rely on a central authority to pair/match sellers with consumers for trading energy. The central authority can interfere with the matching process to profit a selected set of users. Further, a centralized authority also charges for its services, thereby increasing the cost of energy. We propose two distributed mechanisms to match sellers with consumers. The first mechanism doesn't allow for price negotiations between sellers and consumers, whereas the second does. We also calculate the time complexity and the stability of the matching process for both mechanisms. Using simulation, we compare the influence of centralized control and energy prices between the proposed and the existing mechanisms. The overall work strives to promote the free market and reduce energy prices.
Unequal Landscapes: Vulnerability Traps in Informal Settlements of the Jacuí River Delta (Brazil)
Alexandre Pereira Santos, Juan Miguel Rodriguez-Lopez, Cleiton Chiarel
et al.
How just are risk responses that worsen vulnerability in the long term? Should the urban poor be left with self-reliance when facing hazards in the Anthropocene? This research investigates urban development and vulnerability in the Anthropocene. While it is known that informal settlements face greater hazards than most urbanized areas, there are different landscapes of risk. The analysis explores divergent risk-response strategies among households according to their residents’ risk perception and response capacity in two different landscapes of an urban delta using logit regression models. These models evaluate the associations between 14 response options to floods and control for factors of income, age, number of residents in the household, location, access to vehicles, and self-identified ethnicity. This study uses data from the Living with Floods Survey by the World Bank to investigate risk responses to the 2015 flood in the Jacuí River delta. The analysis considers a large sample of households (n = 1451) in informal settlements. The results show the intense influence of income on location choice and response capacity. We also found that income is a more robust social descriptor of response capacity than age or ethnicity. Risk perception proved limited in determining response strategies and can be associated with resignation to losses from floods. We argue that these results suggest trade-offs between short- and long-term responses to hazards in informal settlements in coastal and delta regions, which link adaptive behavior to environmental justice.
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Social Sciences
International Trade Network: Country centrality and COVID-19 pandemic
Roberto Antonietti, Paolo Falbo, Fulvio Fontini
et al.
International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of countries, but on the other, it can also favour the diffusion of diseases, like the COVID-19. In this paper, we study whether, and to what extent, the topology of the trade network can explain the rate of COVID-19 diffusion and mortality across countries. We compute the countries' centrality measures and we apply the community detection methodology based on communicability distance. Then, we use these measures as focal regressors in a negative binomial regression framework. In doing so, we also compare the effect of different measures of centrality. Our results show that the number of infections and fatalities are larger in countries with a higher centrality in the global trade network.
Trends in Under-5 Mortality Rates and Their Associations with Socioeconomic Factors Among Countries Participating in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Panel Data Analysis
Bai R, Dong W, Liu J
et al.
Ruhai Bai,1 Wanyue Dong,2 Jinli Liu,3 Qiao Peng,3 Jun Lyu4 1School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 3Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jun LyuDepartment of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, No. 601, West Huangpu Avenue, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail lyujun2020@jnu.edu.cnPurpose: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provided a platform to promote trade and economic collaboration, with health promotion also being an important component. This study examined the burden of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) among BRI countries and studied the impact of socioeconomic development on the U5MR.Patients and Methods: Data were collected from 137 BRI countries for the period 2000– 2018. The temporal changes in the U5MR and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the U5MR burden. A quantile fixed-effects model was used to access the associations between socioeconomic factors and the U5MR.Results: The U5MR varied widely among the 137 analyzed countries in 2018, being highest in Somalia (121.5 per 1000) and lowest in Slovenia (2.1 per 1000). The decreasing trend in U5MR was largest in Montenegro (EAPC = – 9.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = – 10.2 to – 9.0), while the increasing trend was largest in Dominica (EAPC = 6.0, 95% CI = 5.3 to 6.7). Countries with higher U5MRs in 2000 experienced more rapid decreases in the U5MR from 2000 to 2018. The influence of socioeconomic factors on U5MR was related to the distribution of U5MR.Conclusion: The U5MR remains a major public-health issue in some BRI countries. Improving the economic situation will benefit child health in BRI countries in the long run.Keywords: Belt and Road, under-five mortality rate, socioeconomic, economic factors
Greek Tulips: Worldwide Electronic Trade over the Internet, Global Ex Situ Conservation and Current Sustainable Exploitation Challenges
Nikos Krigas, Christos Lykas, Ioannis Ipsilantis
et al.
From an ornamental viewpoint, tulips are famous clonally propagated crops. This research focuses on 15 wild-growing Greek tulip species including 11 range-restricted species, i.e., six Greek endemics and five Balkan or Aegean endemics and subendemics, among which seven are currently threatened with extinction (two Critically Endangered, three Endangered and two Vulnerable). An overview of the global electronic trade over the internet is presented herein for these valuable phytogenetic resources in an attempt to define the extent of their commercialization (25 nurseries in three countries, mainly bulb trade at various prices) with concomitant conservation implications. In the frame of the repatriation initiatives launched, their global ex situ conservation is overviewed according to the PlantSearch facility of the Botanic Gardens Conservation International (materials from 15 species stored in 41 botanic gardens of 14 countries). The results of this study on the Greek tulips showed that there are both well-established value chains and gaps in the market regarding the “botanical tulips”; revealed the compromised effectiveness of ex situ conservation for the majority of them; raised conservation concerns related to authorized access to these wild phytogenetic resources; and indicated that their future utilization should comply with the provision of national and international legislation. All these are envisaged and discussed within the framework of the newly launched research project TULIPS.GR which aims to be the pilot establishment of a national collection regarding all Greek tulips (currently holding 38 accessions of 13 species, including almost all of the threatened ones). The project’s scope is to enable the creation of a sustainable value chain for the Greek tulips with authorized collections, sustainable conservation schemes, production of DNA barcoded propagation material, species-specific propagation and cultivation protocols, mycorrhizal investigations, field studies, applying innovative precise soil/foliar fertigation, and investigation of the postharvest treatment of fresh cut flowers, promoting networking and synergies with producers and associations in Greece and abroad.
Price impact equilibrium with transaction costs and TWAP trading
Eunjung Noh, Kim Weston
We prove the existence of an equilibrium in a model with transaction costs and price impact where two agents are incentivized to trade towards a target. The two types of frictions -- price impact and transaction costs -- lead the agents to two distinct changes in their optimal investment approach: price impact causes agents to continuously trade in smaller amounts, while transaction costs cause the agents to cease trading before the end of the trading period. As the agents lose wealth because of transaction costs, the exchange makes a profit. We prove the existence of a strictly positive optimal transaction cost from the exchange's perspective.
The Selective Politicization of Transatlantic Trade Negotiations
Aukje van Loon
European Union (EU) trade policy is in the spotlight. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations triggered substantial public mobilization which emerged in a surge of literature on trade politicization. Notwithstanding politicization’s topicality and significance, it varies considerably over time, across trade agreements negotiations as well as across EU member states. By picking up on the latter, this article examines why, despite similar economic benefits potentially to be gained from trade liberalization, TTIP negotiations revealed striking differences in politicization in Germany and the UK. Understanding this variation is illustrated by highlighting the impact of some of TTIPs’ substantial issues mobilizing a range of materially and ideationally motivated stakeholders, who in turn shaped diverging governments’ trade positions of the countries under scrutiny. In explaining this selective politicization across two European countries, focus is on three explanatory variables, domestic material interests (business associations and trade unions), societal ideas (voters and non-governmental organizations [NGOs]) dominant in these countries’ domestic politics, as well as their interaction with national institutions. For this reason, the societal approach to governmental preference formation is employed which provides a detailed exploration of these three domestic factors, as well as the importance of their interdependence, in shaping the TTIP positions of the UK and German governments.
Political science (General)