Dmitri Blueschke, Klaus Weyerstrass, Reinhard Neck
et al.
Optimal fiscal policies are determined for Slovenia for the next few years under alternative assumptions about global developments. We construct a baseline scenario, two scenarios with a recession and two with a boom, each with a demand side and a supply side shock. We use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL12 and assume an intertemporal objective function for Slovenian policy makers containing the main targets derived from a survey among policy makers as arguments. Approximately optimal policies are calculated for all scenarios. Fiscal policies are characterized by an unequal design for dealing with the trade-off between output stabilization and budgetary sustainability: instruments with demand side and supply side effects (direct taxes and public investment) are used for output and employment stabilization, while government consumption and other instruments with only demand side effects are assigned to budget consolidation. The results are rather similar in the different scenarios and only mildly counter-cyclical.
Unlike existing studies that concentrate on haze pollution at the provincial and city levels in China, this study utilizes data from 1762 counties from 2009 to 2020. Using a multi-temporal difference-in-differences method, the study investigates the impact of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones (GFRIs) on county haze pollution (CHP) through the synergy of governmental departments and financial institutions. The findings indicate that GFRIs can reduce CHP, and this effect is realized by promoting green innovation, strengthening environmental penalties, and alleviating fiscal pressure. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the inhibitory effect of GFRIs on CHP is more pronounced in counties with lower levels of financial development, higher levels of industrial development, poorer and in the central and western regions. The GFRIs achieve a win-win situation for economic growth and pollution reduction. The GFRIs should leverage the synergy of “active” government and “effective” market, establishing a long-term mechanism for CHP control.
Economic growth, development, planning, Economic history and conditions
Efforts to mainstream gender dimension
into public policies have been ongoing in recent
years. Among the problems identified in the field
of gender-sensitive budgeting, the Strategy for
Ensuring Equality between Women and Men in
the Republic of Moldova (2017-2021) [7] empha-
sizes the lack of a normative framework and
budgetary instructions to regulate gender-sensi-
tive budgeting in the budget planning process. A
general objective regarding the integration of
gender-sensitive budgeting was again proposed
through the Program for Promoting and Ensu-
ring Equality between Women and Men in the
Republic of Moldova (2023-2027).
The research presents methodological
recommendations regarding the implementation
of the gender-sensitive approach in the budget
process for public authorities, which implies
the bringing of normative acts regarding the
implementation and use of the gender-sensitive
approach in the budget process in accordance
with the stated requirements.
Digital platforms for crowdfunding have emerged as a breakthrough in the field of entrepreneurial finance, offering a digital channel for democratizing capital access on a worldwide level. This study demonstrates how crowdfunding platforms assist impending firms in managing worldwide finances' intricacies while surpassing institutional and cultural obstacles through practical occurrences. This paper closely examines the social impact of these platforms as well as legislative frameworks, cultural norms, key performance indicators, and platform features. An important factor determining whether or not a crowdfunding site succeeds is its design and characteristics. The study points out that some platform features like reward tiers, equity options, and community-building tools can have an impact on investor involvement and the outcome of campaigns. Furthermore, the research showcases that crowdfunding is increasingly being used as a technique to enhance diversity and inclusion, especially among unrepresented business owners including females and ethnic minorities. The study finds optimal practices and typical problems in obtaining foreign finance by examining the success rates of businesses and how these platforms assist disadvantaged entrepreneurs. The results are intended to contribute to a more inclusive entrepreneurial environment by exposing tactics that business owners can use to optimize the potential of crowdfunding in various geographic areas. In essence, this paper intends to give practical information that can be used by politicians, private-public partners, and other stakeholders in business to promote an entrepreneurship environment that is fairer and more sustainable.
Key words: digital crowdfunding, global entrepreneurship, access to capital, inclusive finance.
Economics as a science, Marketing. Distribution of products
Armin Mahmoodi, Leila Hashemi, Amin Mahmoodi
et al.
Purpose – The proposed model has been aimed to predict stock market signals by designing an accurate model. In this sense, the stock market is analysed by the technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick, which is combined by the following meta heuristic algorithms: support vector machine (SVM), meta-heuristic algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) and genetic algorithm (GA). Design/methodology/approach – In addition, among the developed algorithms, the most effective one is chosen to determine probable sell and buy signals. Moreover, the authors have proposed comparative results to validate the designed model in this study with the same basic models of three articles in the past. Hence, PSO is used as a classification method to search the solution space absolutelyand with the high speed of running. In terms of the second model, SVM and ICA are examined by the time. Where the ICA is an improver for the SVM parameters. Finally, in the third model, SVM and GA are studied, where GA acts as optimizer and feature selection agent. Findings – Results have been indicated that, the prediction accuracy of all new models are high for only six days, however, with respect to the confusion matrixes results, it is understood that the SVM-GA and SVM-ICA models have correctly predicted more sell signals, and the SCM-PSO model has correctly predicted more buy signals. However, SVM-ICA has shown better performance than other models considering executing the implemented models. Research limitations/implications – In this study, the authors to analyze the data the long length of time between the years 2013–2021, makes the input data analysis challenging. They must be changed with respect to the conditions. Originality/value – In this study, two methods have been developed in a candlestick model, they are raw based and signal-based approaches which the hit rate is determined by the percentage of correct evaluations of the stock market for a 16-day period.
In the article, we analyse the problem of the efficiency market hypothesis using entropy in moments of transition from a normal economic situation to crises or slowdowns in European, Asian and US stock markets and the economy in the years 2007–2023 (2008–2009, U.S. financial sector crises; 2020–2021, Pandemic period; and the 2022–2023 period of Russia’s attack on Ukraine). The following hypothesis is put forward in the article: In periods of economic slowdown and economic crises, the entropy of prices and return rates decreases. According to the principles of physics, in an isolated system, entropy increases and decreases at the moment of external intervention, similar to finance, where during crises and economic slowdowns, there is interference from governments introducing new regulations and intervening in financial markets. The article uses the Shannon entropy method. This measure, as a statistical measure, does not require the assumption of stationarity of time series or a known probability distribution, unlike classical statistical methods. Our results confirm decreased entropy in stock markets during crisis.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between currency crises and fluctuations in banking credits in Iran. Utilizing a time-varying coefficients approach spanning from 1989 to 2022, alongside economic boom and recession indicators, the analysis assesses the impact of currency crisis occurrences on banking credit cycles. The currency crisis index, based on a dummy variable, and the credit cycle index, derived from banking credit booms and busts, are examined alongside the economic cycle, gauged by production fluctuations using intermediate filters. Findings suggest that currency crises influence the occurrence of credit cycles and production facility cycles, while shocks stemming from economic cycles exacerbate currency crises and credit cycles within the banking system. Given the bidirectional relationship observed between the currency crisis index and credit cycles, policymakers are advised to exercise caution in implementing drastic measures during economic fluctuations and credit cycles. Prudent management of currency markets can mitigate the adverse effects of currency crises on economic variables.
Introduction
Financial crises have profound and far-reaching implications, encompassing economic, political, and social spheres. They exact a heavy toll on society, manifesting in reduced welfare, heightened unemployment, and diminished public trust. Given their extensive repercussions across various sectors, financial crises have garnered considerable attention from economic policymakers. Among the diverse forms they take, currency crises stand out as particularly significant. These crises, marked by sudden depreciation or robust intervention by monetary authorities to bolster national currency values through foreign exchange reserve sales, exert widespread influence across the economy. They precipitate pressures on consumers, producers, and central banks, disrupting market dynamics for other assets and impinging on monetary policy frameworks. Moreover, they adversely impact credit allocation within the banking system, underscoring their multifaceted ramifications.
The main question investigated in this article pertains to the interplay between currency crises and credit cycles during the economic upswings and downturns in Iran. Given the nuanced nature of credit cycle delineation, coupled with the fluctuating dynamics of economic expansions and contractions, the vector autoregression (VAR) approach with time-varying coefficients has been employed to examine the evolving dynamics of this relationship spanning the period from 1989 to 2022. This methodological choice is motivated by its ability to yield more realistic findings, accounting for the temporal variability of coefficients and the dynamic interrelationships among variables. This contrasts with traditional time series models and conventional VAR frameworks, thereby enabling the formulation of more informed policy recommendations.
Methods and Material
In this study, credit cycles and currency crises spanning the period from 1989 to 2022 were extracted using the Cristiano and Fitzgerald filters. The relationship between these components and economic expansions and contractions was then explored. Additionally, the dynamic interplay among these variables was assessed using the vector autoregression method with time-varying coefficients (TVP-VAR). The study incorporates four primary variables: the currency crisis index, credit cycle, economic boom and recession periods, and liquidity growth. To compute the currency crisis index, a virtual variable was employed. The data utilized in this research were sourced from the Central Bank's database and statistical quarterly reports.
Results and Discussion
The findings from the TVP-VAR model reveal several significant dynamics. Initially, in response to a shock from the credit cycle, liquidity growth displays a positive reaction, with the impact dissipating over the long term. Conversely, the currency crisis initially reacts negatively to the credit cycle shock but eventually exhibits a positive response, indicating that the creation of the credit cycle contributes to the occurrence of currency crises. The economic cycle, when shocked by the credit cycle, responds negatively. On the other hand, when the credit cycle is shocked by the currency crisis, it initially reacts positively, followed by a subsequent negative reaction, with the long-term effect dissipating. Liquidity growth, in response to the currency crisis shock, demonstrates a positive reaction. Regarding the economic cycle, its response to the currency crisis shock is initially negative, then positive, and eventually negative again, suggesting that currency crises give rise to periods of economic expansion and contraction. In another aspect, the shock from the credit cycle prompts a positive reaction in liquidity growth, while the currency crisis variable responds negatively to the credit cycle shock. Initially, the credit cycle variable reacts positively to the credit cycle shock, but over time, it turns negative, with the impact fading in the long run. Finally, in response to the shock of liquidity growth, the currency crisis variable shows a positive reaction, the economic cycle reacts positively, and the credit cycle also responds positively, with the effect of the shock diminishing over time..
Figure 1. IRF diagram in TVP-VAR model format
Conclusion
The findings from this study highlight the adverse impact of currency crises on the economic cycle, leading to periods of recession. Conversely, economic downturns can exacerbate currency crises. Based on these results, it is advisable for monetary authorities and central banks to refrain from implementing contractionary policies, particularly in foreign exchange policies and credit restrictions, during economic downturns. Instead, they should expedite the process of foreign exchange allocation to economic enterprises for purchasing production inputs, thereby fostering an environment conducive to improving production and stimulating economic growth. Furthermore, during credit crises, commercial banks are encouraged to increase credit limits for commercial enterprises and streamline the loan repayment process in the micro-finance sector. These measures aim to prevent the economy from slipping into recession and promote sustainable economic development.
Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı, 2050 yılına kadar Avrupa Birliği için net sıfır karbon emisyonuna ulaşmayı hedeflemiş ve sıfır karbon emisyonuna ulaşma hedefi yolunda Avrupa Birliği’ni kaynak verimli ve rekabetçi bir ekonomiye sahip, modern, yüksek refaha sahip bir topluma dönüştürmeyi de amaçlamıştır. Yeşil Mutabakat henüz yapım aşamasında iken ortaya çıkan Covid-19 krizi, mutabakatı raydan çıkarabilecek bir sorun olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Fakat Yeşil Mutabakat oluşturulduğu süreçteki eksikliklerine ve Covid-19 krizinden dolayı ortaya çıkan kısa vadeli ihtiyaçlara rağmen bu süreçten güçlenerek çıkmıştır. İklim ve salgın krizleri arasındaki etkileşim, Yeşil Mutabakat’ın Avrupa Birliği’nin uzun vadeli hedefleri ile krizleri önlemek için gereken kısa vadeli politikalar arasındaki bütünleyici parçayı tamamlaması ve yeşil geçiş için gerekli adımların atılması fırsatını sağlamıştır. Pandemi krizine müdahale etmek için yeşil geçişe yönelik mevcut bütçe güçlendirilmiş ve Avrupa Komisyonu’na daha fazla icra yetkisi verilmiştir. Avrupa Komisyonu da Covid-19 krizi döneminde Yeşil Mutabakat’ı krizden çıkmak için bir strateji olarak görmüş ve büyük bir kısmı yeşil hedefler için olmak üzere yaşanan krizden kurtulmaya yönelik fonlarla donatmak için kullanmıştır. Bu çalışmada Avrupa Birliği ekonomik modelinin Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı’nın rolünü güçlendirmeye ve aynı zamanda sürdürülebilirlik lehine güçlü dinamikler oluşturmaya ve entegrasyonu teşvik etmeye ne oranda katkıda bulunduğu ele alınmaktadır.
Xuyan ZHAO, Yunhe CUI, Qing QIAN, Chun GUO, Guowei SHEN
In response to a tenant's request for virtual machine usage, cloud data centers typically select a physical server for virtual machine placement and calculate the routing path between the tenant and the selected virtual machine placement server to carry traffic between them. However, it is hard to predict the impact of virtual machine placement on the network, and this sequential virtual machine placement can result in the inefficient use of network resource and congestion.To address this problem, a virtual machine and routing path joint placement algorithm, VENet, is proposed. VENet expands the original network topology into a virtual network topology by adding virtual switches and links. Based on this virtual extended network topology, the joint placement problem is approximated as a commodity flow problem, where virtual machines requests are represented as a commodity flow between the corresponding access point switch and the virtual destination switch.The commodity flow problem is modeled and solved through linear programming, obtaining the virtual machine placement location and corresponding routing path simultaneously. Experimental results show that VENet can improve the upper limit of the number of virtual machine requests that can be accepted by the data center, shorten the routing path length between the tenant and the virtual machine placement location, and reduce the network load rate of the data center.Compared to the Weighted Least Connection-Genetic Algorithm(WLC-GA), VENet reduces the routing path length and network load rate by 42% and 30%, respectively.
This article is focused on an analysis of amendments introduced to Articles 112aa and 112d of the Public Finance Act which were adopted by Act of 11 August 2021 amending the Public Finance Act and certain other acts. At the beginning, a structure of the stabilising expenditure rule mechanism is briefly described. In this part of the text first-made changes are also outlined. Then, reasons for introducing subsequent amendments and form of each of these changes are thoroughly analysed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn as to the impact of the modification on the functioning of the stabilizing expenditure rule in the following years.
Comparative law. International uniform law, Political institutions and public administration (General)
The practice of personal financial management among young people is currently getting serious attention, including among students. The problem is based on the implementation of basic financial knowledge which is still minimal. The development of good financial behaviour in students requires special attention because aspects of financial behaviour have a significant influence on their lives after graduating. This study aims to determine the effect of financial attitudes, behavioral control, and self-efficacy on financial behaviour. The type of research carried out is quantitative with primary data through a structured questionnaire. The research sample was selected from one college student with a total of 75 respondents. The sampling technique was purposive sampling on active status students and had completed the Financial Management course. This research is based on The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). The results revealed that financial attitudes and self-efficacy affected financial behaviour, while behavioral control did not affect financial behaviour. Good financial behaviour helps improve financial well-being where positive financial behaviour is associated with positive life outcomes
Raúl Alberto Ponce Rodríguez, Benito Alan Ponce Rodríguez
We develop a model with optimal shares of intergovernmental transfers, and we apply a simulation analysis of our model for the case of Mexico. The main outcomes of this paper are as follows: First, we provide optimal shares of intergovernmental funds to be allocated in each state considering the regional distribution of the benefits of local public spending in Mexico. Second, our analysis shows that the regional heterogeneity of preferences across regions should be an important determinant of federal funds allocated to state governments. Third, the current system of finance relies on a tax revenue sharing accord that emphasizes nationwide tax collection issues as the main determinants of intergovernmental transfers and local spending. Our analysis provides a contrast between how fiscal policy is conducted, and feasible choices of policy reform. Fourth, our analysis of simulation identifies winners and losers from policy reform, and so our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the advantages and shortcomings of the current policy of intergovernmental transfers, providing feasible ways to improve the outcomes of subnational government spending.
Abstract This study investigates the factors of Bitcoin’s tail risk, quantified by Value at Risk (VaR). Extending the conditional autoregressive VaR model proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004), I examine 30 potential drivers of Bitcoin’s 5% and 1% VaR. For the 5% VaR, quantity variables, such as Bitcoin trading volume and monetary policy rate, were positively significant, but these effects were attenuated when new samples were added. The 5% VaR responds positively to the Internet search index and negatively to the fluctuation of returns on commodity variables and the Chinese stock market index. For the 1% VaR, variables related to the macroeconomy play a key role. The consumer sentiment index exerts a strong positive effect on the 1% VaR. I also find that the 1% VaR has positive relationships with the US economic policy uncertainty index and the fluctuation of returns on the corporate bond index.
The present study examines the main and interaction effects of the variables that affect the total factor productivity (TFP) in East and West Asian countries. To this end, this paper provides a short-term and long-term analysis of the factors affecting productivity differences in these countries during the period 1998-2018. According to the results, the main factors that influence the increase in productivity in both the short-term and long-term in East Asia are the share of fossil fuels use, good governance, oil rents, and human capital, respectively; while the most important factors in increasing productivity in West Asia are good governance and trade openness, respectively. Correspondingly, the share of fossil fuels use, human capital, oil rents, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and financial development have been the most important factors in the difference in productivity in East and West Asian countries in both short-term and the long-term. Moreover, good governance has increased the productivity of all factors in West Asian countries (in the short-term), and in East Asian countries (in the long-term). Furthermore, in West Asian countries, in both short-term and long-term, the interaction effect of good governance and oil rents has increased the TFP; also, the interaction effect of human capital and oil rents has reduced the TFP, while the interaction of human capital and foreign direct investment had no effect on the TFP.
Yi-Jen Wang MD, Hao-Yen Liu MD, Tzeng-Ji Chen MD
et al.
Family physicians serve as personal doctors for individuals and their families and also act as gatekeepers of the health care system. If no special status is accorded to family physicians, however, then the rates at which health care recipients utilize their service might be affected. In the present cross-sectional study, representative claims data sets for 2010 from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program, a health care system in which beneficiaries are not required to register with a family physician, were used to investigate the provision of health care to the population by family physicians. Among 919 206 beneficiaries with a total of 13 713 199 ambulatory visits, 49.1% had visited family physicians, 34.1% had visited internists, 24.3% had visited pediatricians, and 38.9% had visited otolaryngologists. Women (χ 2 (1) = 538, P < .001) and patients aged 65 and above (χ 2 (1) = 16 000, P < .001) had a higher proportion of visiting family physicians rather than visiting other specialties. The onion-shaped population pyramid with family medicine visits was compatible with the general population, and the proportion of visiting family physicians increased with increasing age. Among 112 289 patients with essential hypertension, 63 379 patients with diabetes mellitus, and 80 090 patients with hyperlipidemia, only 35.3%, 32.0%, and 31.1%, respectively, had visited family physicians. The age and sex distributions of these patients were illustrated with population pyramids for data visualization and direct comparisons. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that the utilization of family physicians in Taiwan and the effectiveness of their associated role in chronic disease management still have room for improvement.
Background: Globally, flexible work arrangements – through the use of temporary nursing staff – are an important strategy for dealing with nursing shortages in hospitals. Objective: The objective of the study was to determine the direct and indirect costs of agency nurses, as well as the advantages and the problems associated with agency nurse utilisation in two public sector hospitals in South Africa. Methods: Following ethical approval, two South African public sector hospitals were selected purposively. Direct costs were determined through an analysis of hospital expenditure information for a 5-year period from 2005 until 2010, obtained from the national transversal Basic Accounting System database. At each hospital, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the chief executive officer, executive nursing services manager, the maternity or critical care unit nursing manager, the human resource manager, and the finance manager. Indirect costs measured were the time spent on pre-employment checks, and nurse recruitment, orientation, and supervision. All expenditure is expressed in South African Rands (R: 1 USD=R7, 2010 prices). Results: In the 2009/10 financial year, Hospital 1 spent R38.86 million (US$5.55 million) on nursing agencies, whereas Hospital 2 spent R10.40 million (US$1.49 million). The total estimated time spent per week on indirect cost activities at Hospital 1 was 51.5 hours, and 60 hours at Hospital 2. The estimated monetary value of this time at Hospital 1 was R962,267 (US$137,467) and at Hospital 2 the value was R300,121 (US$42,874), thus exceeding the weekly direct costs of nursing agencies. Agency nurses assisted the selected hospitals in dealing with problems of nurse recruitment, absenteeism, shortages, and skills gaps in specialised clinical areas. The problems experienced with agency nurses included their perceived lack of commitment, unreliability, and providing sub-optimal quality of patient care. Conclusion: Hospital managers and policy-makers need to address the effective utilisation of agency nurses and quality of patient care in tandem.
The subject of initial public offering (IPO) and the unusual short-time return of compared with another stocks, allocated many studies and researches in world level and in stock market to itself. The studied researches pointed to the short-time return of IPOs, which are higher than market and its long term return in return. One of the main hypothesis of behavioral finance is overreaction that is the main factor of overreaction in investor behavior is representativeness heuristic. This paper investigates overreaction behavior on shares of IPOs in Tehran stock exchange by considering 2 strategies of buy and hold and cumulative average return. The study investigates the effects of different factors such as price, market value, prior return and trading volume on overreaction. The results show negative effects of price and transaction volume on overreaction. In another words, price and volume of transactions are lower (higher) and higher return (lower) and therefore increased overreaction.