Hasil untuk "Management. Industrial management"

I. Made Wahyu Wijaya, I. G. D. Yudha Partama, I. Ketut Sumantra, Kailas Deoram Ahire and Fransiskus Vebrian Kenedy

This study explores the spatiotemporal variations in nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants in the Tukad Badung River, an essential water source for Bali’s communities, increasingly impacted by agricultural, domestic, and industrial discharges. Bi-daily sampling at six strategically selected sites along the river’s 18-kilometer stretch revealed substantial fluctuations in water quality, with downstream sites consistently exhibiting elevated pollutant concentrations. Ammonia concentrations varied from 1.5 to 4.2 mg.L-1, nitrate levels ranged from 5.0 to 11.6 mg.L-1, and total phosphorus concentrations spanned 0.5 to 2.5 mg.L-1, all of which were highest during afternoon sampling, likely due to reduced flow and increased anthropogenic inputs. Total suspended solids (TSS) exhibited temporal and spatial variability, ranging from 80 to 127 mg.L-1, with the highest concentrations observed at midstream sites, suggesting localized sedimentation from human activities. The nutrient dynamics displayed marked temporal variations, with concentrations rising during afternoon hours, reflecting shifts in human activity and changes in river flow conditions. Furthermore, the study assessed nutrient recovery technologies, such as precipitation and adsorption, which were able to recover up to 80% of extractable nutrients. These findings not only characterize the pollution trends but also highlight the potential of nutrient recovery techniques in reducing dependency on synthetic fertilizers. This research emphasizes the need for integrated watershed management and adaptive recovery strategies to mitigate nutrient pollution and enhance the sustainability of river ecosystems for future generations.

Luyun Lin, Yiqing Wang

The increasing development in the consumer credit card market brings substantial regulatory and risk management challenges. The advanced machine learning models applications bring concerns about model transparency and fairness for both financial institutions and regulatory departments. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of one commonly used Explainable AI (XAI) technology, SHAP, for variable explanation in credit card probability of default models via a case study about credit card default prediction. The study shows the consistency is related to the variable importance level and hence provides practical recommendation for credit risk management

Abiodun Finbarrs Oketunji

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Klenam Korbla Ledi

This study proposes mechanisms for firms to thrive in a turbulent business environment by investigating the mediating role of frugal innovation in the relationship between competitive intelligence and value creation. The study also examined absorptive capacity as a critical boundary condition that influences the impact of competitive intelligence on frugal innovation. A survey questionnaire was administered to 302 SMEs, and the data were analysed using Amos. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed to test the hypothesis. The findings demonstrate a significant positive impact of competitive intelligence on SME value creation. The study also found that frugal innovation acts as a mechanism to amplify the impact of competitive intelligence on value creation, and this relationship is anchored by a high level of absorptive capacity. The study demonstrates how competitive intelligence and frugal innovation synergistically drive value creation amid turbulence under the auspices of absorptive capacity, thereby increasing SMEs’ resilience and competitiveness. The study sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of value creation in a turbulent business environment, offering novel perspectives on dynamic capabilities.

Joseph W. Lockwood, Avantika Gori, Pierre Gentine

Abstract Extreme winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant loss of life and economic damage globally, highlighting the need for accurate, high‐resolution modeling and forecasting for wind. However, due to their coarse horizontal resolution, most global climate and weather models suffer from chronic underprediction of TC wind speeds, limiting their use for impact analysis and energy modeling. In this study, we introduce a cascading deep learning framework designed to downscale high‐resolution TC wind fields given low‐resolution data. Our approach maps 85 TC events from ERA5 data (0.25° resolution) to high‐resolution (0.05° resolution) observations at 6‐hr intervals. The initial component is a debiasing neural network designed to model accurate wind speed observations using ERA5 data. The second component employs a generative super‐resolution strategy based on a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to enhance the spatial resolution and to produce ensemble estimates. The model is able to accurately model intensity and produce realistic radial profiles and fine‐scale spatial structures of wind fields, with a percentage mean bias of −3.74% compared to the high‐resolution observations. Our downscaling framework enables the prediction of high‐resolution wind fields using widely available low‐resolution and intensity wind data, allowing for the modeling of past events and the assessment of future TC risks.

Shoaib Khan, Ameen Qasem

AbstractThis study examines the empirical relationship between the different leverage levels as a proxy of financing mix on the financial performance of the non-financial firms listed on capital markets in GCC economies. The study uses the pooled ordinary least squares regression (OLS), fixed and random effects regression, and feasible generalised least square (FGLS) regression to explore the relationship among variables on the data of GCC firms listed from 2011 to 2021. The results suggest that the capital structure considerably affects firms’ performance. Findings refute the theoretical assumptions of Modigliani and Miller’s debt irrelevance and debt-supporting theorem. The findings also contradict the debt-supporting benefits the agency and trade-off theory suggest. Empirically, short-term, long-term, and total debt adversely affect the return on assets, equity, and earnings per share. Control variables, growth opportunities, and size of the firm positively and asset tangibility negatively contribute to the performance. The results will support the managers in making performance-improving financing decisions. Lenders should improve ex-ante screening and ex-post monitoring to avoid possible defaults. Local and foreign investors should carefully examine the firms’ debt levels before making investment decisions. Policymakers should focus on the flourishing of the bond markets to support privatisation and economic diversification. Our study is the first to use the recent data of GCC-listed firms to examine the impact of capital structure on firms’ performance. Contributing to the literature gap will also lay a foundation for a more comparative study on corporate financing with alternative financial instruments.

Yasena Chantova

This article presents a discussion on polysemy in a crossword by Perec. We apply Culioli’s modelling approach in terms of operation of location and construction of a notion and its notional domain. Polysemy is seen as part of the intangible cultural heritage within languages.

Yu. P. Voronov

The article explores the process of creating a large cooperative housing complex in a district of New York. It highlights the unique circumstances that made the cooperative City project possible in the United States. The article also examines the efforts of European countries to foster urban residents’ involvement in urban development. It provides examples of innovative solutions implemented by the population of various European cities. The article delves into the Russian experience of utilizing public initiatives to enhance urban development and improve the quality of life. It emphasizes that the promotion of cooperation in urban life is supported by both governmental authorities and individual citizens and local communities. The article highlights a new phase in this process — changes in urban planning, with the transition from general to master plans becoming part of federal policy.

Fernando Acebes, Javier Pajares, Jose M Gonzalez-Varona et al.

Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and, thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk while it is underway. In particular, the indicator informs us about what activities contribute the most to the project's uncertainty so that project managers can pay closer attention to the performance of these activities. The main difference between our indicator and other activity sensitivity metrics in the literature (e.g. cruciality, criticality, significance, or schedule sensitivity indices) is that our indicator is based on the Schedule Risk Baseline concept instead of on cost or schedule baselines. The new metric not only provides information at the beginning of the project, but also while it is underway. Furthermore, the ARI is the only one to offer a normalized result: if we add its value for each activity, the total sum is 100%.

Mahmood Alaghmandan, Olga Streltchenko

In this paper, we discuss aspects of model risk management in financial institutions which could be adopted by academic institutions to improve the process of conducting academic research, identify and mitigate existing limitations, decrease the possibility of erroneous results, and prevent fraudulent activities.

Fernando Acebes, José Manuel González-Varona, Adolfo López-Paredes et al.

The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management efforts to ensure higher project profitability. Risk matrices are widely recognised tools by academics and practitioners in various sectors to assess and rank risks according to their likelihood of occurrence and impact on project objectives. However, the existing literature highlights several limitations to use the risk matrix. In response to the weaknesses of its use, this paper proposes a novel approach for prioritising project risks. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to perform a quantitative prioritisation of risks with the simulation software MCSimulRisk. Together with the definition of project activities, the simulation includes the identified risks by modelling their probability and impact on cost and duration. With this novel methodology, a quantitative assessment of the impact of each risk is provided, as measured by the effect that it would have on project duration and its total cost. This allows the differentiation of critical risks according to their impact on project duration, which may differ if cost is taken as a priority objective. This proposal is interesting for project managers because they will, on the one hand, know the absolute impact of each risk on their project duration and cost objectives and, on the other hand, be able to discriminate the impacts of each risk independently on the duration objective and the cost objective.

Yannick Becker, Pascal Halffmann, Anita Schöbel

In portfolio optimization, decision makers face difficulties from uncertainties inherent in real-world scenarios. These uncertainties significantly influence portfolio outcomes in both classical and multi-objective Markowitz models. To address these challenges, our research explores the power of robust multi-objective optimization. Since portfolio managers frequently measure their solutions against benchmarks, we enhance the multi-objective min-regret robustness concept by incorporating these benchmark comparisons. This approach bridges the gap between theoretical models and real-world investment scenarios, offering portfolio managers more reliable and adaptable strategies for navigating market uncertainties. Our framework provides a more nuanced and practical approach to portfolio optimization under real-world conditions.

Qian Zhang, Yi He, Yue Xiao et al.

As the Internet of Things (IoT) industry advances, the imperative to secure IoT devices has become increasingly critical. Current practices in both industry and academia advocate for the enhancement of device security through key installation. However, it has been observed that, in practice, IoT vendors frequently assign shared keys to batches of devices. This practice can expose devices to risks, such as data theft by attackers or large-scale Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. To address this issue, our intuition is to assign a unique key to each device. Unfortunately, this strategy proves to be highly complex within the IoT context, as existing keys are typically hardcoded into the firmware, necessitating the creation of bespoke firmware for each device. Furthermore, correct pairing of device keys with their respective devices is crucial. Errors in this pairing process would incur substantial human and temporal resources to rectify and require extensive communication between IoT vendors, device manufacturers, and cloud platforms, leading to significant communication overhead. To overcome these challenges, we propose the OTA-Key scheme. This approach fundamentally decouples device keys from the firmware features stored in flash memory, utilizing an intermediary server to allocate unique device keys in two distinct stages and update keys. We conducted a formal security verification of our scheme using ProVerif and assessed its performance through a series of evaluations. The results demonstrate that our scheme is secure and effectively manages the large-scale distribution and updating of unique device keys. Additionally, it achieves significantly lower update times and data transfer volumes compared to other schemes.

Abdalwali Lutfi, Ahmad Farhan Alshira’h, Malek Hamed Alshirah et al.

Despite tax being a fundamental method to redistribute wealth and achieve a sustainable economic and social system, tax agencies and institutions in most countries are struggling with low tax collections. This issue is often attributed to the level of compliance among taxpayers. To gain more insight into this problem, a study was conducted to examine how socio-economic determinants such as probability of detection, tax complexity, tax penalty, tax sanctions, tax ethics, tax justice, government spending, and tax services quality impact VAT compliance decisions. The study drew a random sample of 770 retail industry participants from Jordan, an Arabic country, for a self-administered survey. Smart-PLS structural equation modeling was used to analyze and estimate the compliance model. The results indicated that all proposed direct relationships were supported, and the interactions between tax knowledge and the socio-economic determinants on VAT compliance were found to be significant. The findings of this research can be useful for policymakers and institutions responsible for taxpayers' communities to understand the role of tax knowledge in VAT compliance in the retail industry. The study emphasizes the significance of instilling tax knowledge, social and moral values among VAT payers, establishing an equitable system, and launching awareness programs in Jordanian society. Additionally, it contributes to existing literature by confirming a practical compliance model rooted in the socio-economic theory of regulatory compliance. This model incorporates the moderating effect of tax knowledge within socio-economic aspects of VAT compliance. By understanding the importance of tax knowledge, policymakers and institutions can develop effective strategies to boost VAT funds and improve compliance in the retail industry. This can ultimately lead to increased government revenues without placing an undue economic burden on lower-income taxpayers.

Zhengyong Jiang, Jeyan Thiayagalingam, Jionglong Su et al.

In this paper, we present a novel trading strategy that integrates reinforcement learning methods with clustering techniques for portfolio management in multi-period trading. Specifically, we leverage the clustering method to categorize stocks into various clusters based on their financial indices. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic to determine the trading actions for stocks within each cluster. Finally, we employ the algorithm DDPG to generate the portfolio weight vector, which decides the amount of stocks to buy, sell, or hold according to the trading actions of different clusters. To the best of our knowledge, our approach is the first to combine clustering methods and reinforcement learning methods for portfolio management in the context of multi-period trading. Our proposed strategy is evaluated using a series of back-tests on four datasets, comprising a of 800 stocks, obtained from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and National Association of Securities Deal Automated Quotations sources. Our results demonstrate that our approach outperforms conventional portfolio management techniques, such as the Robust Median Reversion strategy, Passive Aggressive Median Reversion Strategy, and several machine learning methods, across various metrics. In our back-test experiments, our proposed strategy yields an average return of 151% over 360 trading periods with 800 stocks, compared to the highest return of 124% achieved by other techniques over identical trading periods and stocks.

Christian Kurtz, Florian Wittner, Martin Semmann et al.

Billions of people interact within platform-based ecosystems containing the personal data of their daily lives. Data which have become rigorously creatable, processable, and shareable. Here, platform providers facilitate interactions between three types of relevant actors: users, service providers, and third parties. Research in the information systems field has shown that platform providers influence their platform ecosystems to promote the contributions of service providers and exercise control by utilizing boundary resources. Through a socio-techno-legal analysis of two high-profile cases and their application on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) we show that the boundary resource design, arrangement, and interplay can influence whether and to what extent platform providers are accountable for platform providers unlawful personal data processing in platform ecosystems. The findings can have a huge impact to account actors for personal data misusage in platform ecosystems and, thus, the protection of personal liberty and rights in such socio-technical systems.

Jan Kalich, Uwe Füssel

The multi-material design and the adaptability of a modern process chain require joining connections with specifically adjustable mechanical, thermal, chemical, or electrical properties. Previous considerations primarily focused on the mechanical properties. The multitude of possible combinations of requirements, materials, and component- and joining-geometry makes an empirical determination of these joining properties for the clinching process impossible. Based on the established and empirical procedure, there is currently no model that takes into account all questions of joinability—i.e., the materials (suitability for joining), design (security of joining), and production (joining possibility)—that allows a calculation of the properties that can be achieved. It is therefore necessary to describe the physical properties of the joint as a function of the three binding mechanisms—form closure, force closure, and material closure—in relation to the application. This approach illustrates the relationships along the causal chain “joint requirement-binding mechanism-joining parameters” and improves the adaptability of the mechanical joining technology. Geometrical properties of clinch connections of the combination of aluminum and steel are compared in a metallographic cross-section. The mechanical stress state of the rotationally symmetrical clinch points is qualified with a torsion test and by measuring the electrical resistance in the base material, in the clinch joint, and during the production cycle (after clinching, before precipitation hardening and after precipitation hardening).

Florian Bachinger, Gabriel Kronberger

With the increasing number of created and deployed prediction models and the complexity of machine learning workflows we require so called model management systems to support data scientists in their tasks. In this work we describe our technological concept for such a model management system. This concept includes versioned storage of data, support for different machine learning algorithms, fine tuning of models, subsequent deployment of models and monitoring of model performance after deployment. We describe this concept with a close focus on model lifecycle requirements stemming from our industry application cases, but generalize key features that are relevant for all applications of machine learning.

Ranjan Pal, Ziyuan Huang, Xinlong Yin et al.

In this paper, we provide (i) a rigorous general theory to elicit conditions on (tail-dependent) heavy-tailed cyber-risk distributions under which a risk management firm might find it (non)sustainable to provide aggregate cyber-risk coverage services for smart societies, and (ii)a real-data driven numerical study to validate claims made in theory assuming boundedly rational cyber-risk managers, alongside providing ideas to boost markets that aggregate dependent cyber-risks with heavy-tails.To the best of our knowledge, this is the only complete general theory till date on the feasibility of aggregate cyber-risk management.

Mohsen Mirzaie

Introduction In the Manichaean Ms. M538 (verso), corresponding to ag3 in A Reader in Manichaean Middle Persian and Parthian (Boyce, 1975, 92) there is a sentence which was translated by scholars with some added words or phrases as well as few comments laid in round brackets by them; so that, in the sentence in question, because of the ambiguity of the meaning followed by the obscurity of the syntax, we see no more than uncertain translation.  In the present article, the phrase that is the subject of discussion contains a difficult word in a short sentence, the inexplicable syntactical structure of which has not been unlocked in any way. This word is the Parthian semi-hapax “pdm’dg /padmādag/” and it is the very basic element causing some obscurity in the meaning of that phrase. But, by scrutinizing any available evidence of “pdm’d(g)” in Parthian, and only one (pym’d /paymād) in Manichaean middle Persian, which we have, the problem in that case is to be solved to provide us the relatively exact meaning (as far as possible) of this word, then, it might resolve the unclear concept of that phrase and sentence in Ms. M538. There is also another word (pd /pad/) that fairly clears up the phrase but those scholars who took this text into consideration did not pay much attention to it.   2. Methodology Although there are five or six samples in Manichaean Parthian and Middle Persian fragments for “pdm’d” and its derivatives, due to badly preserved texts, either the two side of this word is lost, or by studying the remnant of the phrase, it is impossible to approach the logical concept of the matter related by the author; therefore, every word like these are in the same situation like a hapax. Thus, alongside considering the precious academic studies done by scholars, we have to scan all of the fragmentary evidence of “pdm’dg” to make an inference about the original proper meaning of this word in the phrase M538, which one of the literal meanings of “pdm’dg” could approximately fit with it. This means that according to this plan every direct fragment must be exhibited here, and any related suggestions made by scholars need to be under discussion.   3. Discussion Ten lines of Ms. M538 recto is about veneration of Father of Greatness and the rest lines have been distorted. The verso begins with blessing of twelve Aeons and then ether, praised earth and shiny inhabitants of [light world] are venerated; in this part it runs: “kādūš kādūš ō šahrān rōšnān, kē pad tō wuzurgīft radanīn padmādag ahēnd”. Only the last part of this was translated by Boyce as: “who are apportioned (?) (as) Jewels (?)” (Boyce, 1975: 92). Mirfakhraie rendered it into “holy, holy to realms of light which are appointed by your greatness jewels” (Mirfakhraie, 2008: 87). By adding a word to his translation, Klimkeit translated it with passive voice without any explanation about that; then (in note no.6) he made reference to a view proposed by Sundermann who pointed it out to him (Klimkeit, 1993, 30, 33). It seems that there is no disagreement between scholars about inflection and the meaning of “padmādag”; this word is past participle of “padmād-” “measure”, but for several reason mentioned above, its syntactical role in M538 has remained still unknown. In Mirfakhraie and Boyce’s translations “kē” which refers to “šahrān” is the subject of the sentence and “padmādag” becomes predicate of that. In Klimkeit’s, the translation is unclear, but in the comment suggested by Sundermann “padmādag” has been rendered two times: once as a past simple verb (appointed) and later as an adjective (fitting) for “radanīn”; so, by this latter interpretation, “padmādag” is not predicate but adjective for the predicate (= radanīn). The simplified form of this sentence is “šahrān pad tō wuzurgīft radanīn padmādag ahēnd”. Now considering this, there are two notes offered below: 1) as it has been recognized by Sundermann, in this sentence, “padmādag” is an adjective and not the predicate. 2) Therefore, the matter in this phrase is “to fit jewels” into the Greatness of Father, and this is that significance which was presumably stressed by the author, thus “padmādag” in that case is not predicate here but adjective for the predicate. By this analysis, it can be said that the Aeons placed on the Greatness of Father are actually “implanted jewels set up on (pad) or situated within Greatness of you (oh, Father!)”. Moreover, in Manichaean texts (like ax2 or al3; see Boyce, 1975: 107, 96), the Aeons are addressed as jewels [of + adjective, or appositive]. By art of jewelry-making and facet, a jewel-maker who measures and places gems on precious metal is known as “stone-setter”; thus, in that phrase the suitable translation for “padmādag” could be some synonym words like “implanted, placed, appointed”. Thus, by this explanation, syntactical structure of the phrase became properly complete, so that without any added or omitted words, or frequent usage of question marks and parenthesis, the whole concept of the sentence would be unveiled: “holy, holy to shiny Aeons who are the placed jewels on your Greatness [oh, Father!]”. Further evidence of this word is listed below in brief: 1. In well-preserved M6040, line 9, there is the infinitive form “padmādan” which means “make measurement, pouring (something) into a vessel” (Sundermann, 1981, 87). 2. In M8100, line 14, the past participle “padmād” can be rendered as verb, past simple tense, 3rd sg. (as plur.) pass., which means “[the Aeons] was measured”; or adjective which means “fitted, adorned [Aeones]”. 3. In M101h, line 5, “padmād” is past simple verb, 3rd sg., and it possibly means “placed, settled” in: “the earth settled trees and spring with …”(cf. Henning’s translation: “keep measured the mixture (?)”, for “zamīg” had been read by him as “wimēg”; see Henning, 1943: 63). According to Sundermann’s view, in M101h we do not have a single word as “pdm’d /padmād/”, and this transliteration might be wrong; for actually there are two words which must be transliterated separately to “pd /pad/” and “m’d /mād/” (mother), since there is a significant gap between these; then he gives an incomplete unrelated example with a question mark denoting his uncertainty (Sundermann, 1975, 299, n. 18). 4. In M433a, line 4, we see the only remained form (pymʼd /paymād/) in Manichaean middle Persian fragments; but in this case the syntactical structure of the phrase is not comprehensible at all. Although this fragment is a very small fraction of a paper, but “paymād” must be past simple verb, 3rd singular, having “š” as agent; therefore, here it means “he measured”.   4. Conclusion An analysis of the entire fragmentary texts indicates that M538 and M6040 contain the best possible complete evidence (verb, participle and infinitive forms) existing in M.Parth. and M.Mper. manuscripts. Thus at first step the researcher has to base his study almost entirely on these fragments, then, he can, if needed, apply other evidence to check the meaning and significance of “pdm’d(ag)”, and see how much his translation is in accordance with the real concept of the text. Since there is no sufficient evidence of “padmādag” to approach or find out the close significance of this word, we necessarily have to rely upon syntactical analyzing of the phrase. According to this attitude, it is proposed here that in M538, “padmādag” is the adjective for the predicate and here this adjective means “placed, implanted, appointed” or so on. g. re.