Hasil untuk "Disasters and engineering"

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DOAJ Open Access 2025
Mechanical properties and fatigue analysis of rubber concrete under uniaxial compression modified by a combination of mineral admixture

Akbar Muhammad, Ahmed Bilal, Qing Wu et al.

To understand rubber concrete’s mechanical and fatigue performance under uniaxial compression, a 0 %, 8 %, 15 %, 20 %, and 25 % rubber particle incorporated mineral admixture, combined with 0 %, 4 %, 8 % and 15 % fly ash (FA) and 0 %, 5 %, 10 % and 15 % silica fume (SF), was used to prepare rubber concrete. Mechanical performance and uniaxial compression fatigue tests under constant amplitude cyclic loading were conducted. A damage model for rubber concrete fatigue strain was developed based on Miner’s cumulative damage theory. A reliability analysis of the fatigue life of rubber concrete was conducted using probabilistic statistical methods and experimental data. The distribution characteristics under uniaxial compression with constant amplitude cyclic loading were determined. The results indicate that rubber concrete incorporated with mineral admixture exhibits a significantly longer fatigue life compared to ordinary cement concrete under the same stress levels. Including 8 % fly ash (FA), 10 % silica fume (SF), and 15 % crumb rubber (CR) enhanced the mechanical properties of the concrete, leading to a 7.5 % increase in fatigue life. The incorporation of rubber particles also reduces the range of changes in stress strength factors. The evolution of fatigue strain in rubber concrete follows a three-stage pattern similar to that of conventional concrete, and its fatigue life is consistent with a logarithmic normal distribution. The equation for fatigue strain and damage amount of rubber concrete suggests that adding rubber may increase the fatigue deformation capacity of concrete to some extent, with the degree of improvement being independent of stress level.

Technology, Chemical technology
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Exploring Material and Ideational Dimensions in Policy Networks: A Social Network Analysis of Flood Disaster Risk Management in Ghana

Fafali R. Ziga‐Abortta

ABSTRACT Flood disasters with cascading characteristics traverse decision‐making levels involving a spectrum of actors. Actors involved in Flood Disaster Risk Management (FDRM) form networks to implement related policies. Utilizing an ideational policy network approach, this study contributes knowledge to the role of material and ideational exchanges in policy networks. Two empirical case‐study research questions are posed: (1) How is Ghana's FDRM policy network structured in relation to information and resource exchange and trust? (2) How does ideational (mis)alignment influence this network? Methodologically, a quantitative Social Network Analysis is combined with qualitative interpretations. Results show that the current policy network primarily facilitates “information and knowledge exchanges” dominated by centralized state agencies reemphasizing traditional conceptualizations of the state as the primary duty bearer of disaster management. The network benefits from influential actors who act as brokers, fostering shared ideas of resolute problem‐solving despite challenges, while maintaining strategic diplomatic ties that enable network endurance. The study reveals complex patterns of ideational alignment and misalignment, where actors' problem definitions do not necessarily correspond with their preferred solutions. Four distinct scenarios emerge: full alignment, partial alignment, partial misalignment, and complete misalignment of shared ideas, demonstrating how material and ideational dimensions interact to shape policy implementation outcomes.

River protective works. Regulation. Flood control, Disasters and engineering
DOAJ Open Access 2025
What Has Rainfall Got to Do With It? Landscape Antecedent Conditions Have a First Order Effect on Flood Inundation Extent in the Hawkesbury‐Nepean Valley

Wendy Sharples, Jiawei Hou, Katayoon Bahramian et al.

ABSTRACT The Hawkesbury‐Nepean valley has a long history of hazardous flooding dating back to when records began, in the 18th century. It is one of the largest coastal basins in the eastern Australian region and supports a large population, agriculture, and industry, as well as being an important environmental asset. Multiple flooding events with differing socioeconomic impacts occurred in the valley between 2020 and 2022, brought about by a rare triple La Niña event—only the third since 1900. In this study, upon examination of the four significant floods in the area, the reasons for the variation in impacts are explored by investigating the climate drivers and antecedent conditions preceding these events, the streamflow during the events, and the hazard footprints themselves. It was found that antecedent landscape conditions exerted a first‐order effect on the hazard footprint's size and thus impact. These results imply that with the current landscape drying trends and projected increase in landscape dryness for this region, the projected increase in extreme rainfall events will not affect the flood hazard footprint of medium‐sized floods. Thus, impacts from flooding will not necessarily increase in severity in this region in the future.

River protective works. Regulation. Flood control, Disasters and engineering
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Monitoring of surface subsidence disasters and evolution laws caused by multiple mining activities in coal mines based on SBAS-InSAR

Jianyang Yu, Jiachen Cao, Siqi Gao et al.

In underground coal mining, surface subsidence disasters are likely to be induced. Especially, under the condition of multi-seam mining, the movement characteristics of the overlying strata are more complex. Once these characteristics are transmitted to the surface, it is easy to lead to intensified deformation and the appearance of ground fissures. This not only causes damage to surface buildings but also may have irreversible impacts on the aquifer. Taking 1208# working face of Hongyang No. 3 Coal Mine as a case in study, this paper uses the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technology to systematically monitor and analyze the surface subsidence characteristics of the multi-mining area (MMA) and the single-mining area (SMA) changing over time, with a focus on discussing the subsidence laws of the MMA. The comparative analysis results show that: (1) There is an obvious hysteresis in surface subsidence, the position of the subsidence center basically corresponds to that of the working face, but the influence range of subsidence exceeds the boundary of the working face, besides, significant surface subsidence occurred 36 days after mining the No. 1208 working face, and the change in the structure of the overlying strata was transmitted to the surface; (2) Compared with the single-mining area (SMA), the maximum subsidence rate (MSR) and the maximum subsidence value (MSV) in the multi-mining area (MMA) are higher, and both the subsidence center and its influence range are significantly expanded; and (3) After the mining of the working face stops, the subsidence rate slows down, but the subsidence increment in the MMA area is still higher than that in the SMA. The above findings deepen the understanding of the evolution mechanism of surface subsidence disasters caused by multiple mining activities, and provide an important basis for the monitoring, prevention and control of subsidence disasters in similar mining areas.

Geology, Disasters and engineering
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Technology and application of treating water inrush disasters in underground engineering with the method of physical detection combined with grouting

Huangbin Jiang, Huangbin Jiang, Chu Jiang et al.

The water gushing disaster in karst unfavorable geology has always been one of the difficult problems to be solved in the engineering field. In view of engineering problems such as water gushing in karst geology with relatively high-water flow velocity and water seepage at the joints of the underground diaphragm wall which is concealed, a treatment method for water gushing disasters in karst geology based on physical detection combined with grouting is proposed. The main steps of this method are as follows: Firstly, according to the analysis results of engineering geological investigations, by selecting appropriate physical detection means, accurately locate the hidden danger positions such as underground water gushing channels and cracks. Then, based on the results of physical detection, select appropriate grouting materials and techniques to conduct water blocking treatment at the water gushing points and effectively block the water gushing paths. In addition, the feasibility of the above method has also been verified through engineering applications. For the water gushing problem in the limestone area with extensive karst development, the electrical method of geophysical exploration technology was adopted to clarify the karst water gushing channels. And combined with the clay-cement paste grouting blocking technology to block them. The results show that the water blocking effect is obvious, and the water gushing volume has been drastically reduced from 103,900 to 8,600 m³/d, with a reduction rate as high as 91.72%. Moreover, for the concealed water gushing disasters at the joints of the underground diaphragm wall, the sonar detection method was selected to explore the positions of water gushing. Then the cement-water glass double-liquid grouting method was used to conduct anti-seepage treatment at the water gushing positions. An inspection of the water gushing situation after treatment found that the leakage phenomenon at the joints was significantly reduced. The research results can provide certain references for the design of treatment schemes for similar water gushing disasters in karst unfavorable geology.

DOAJ Open Access 2025
How tidal properties influence the future duration of coastal flooding

Stefan A. Talke

Abstract This paper uses a combined theoretical/empirical approach to show that 4 primary factors impact inundation times during high-tide flooding: the amplitude, period, and relative phases of semidiurnal and diurnal tide forcing, and the maximum water-level above a datum. Some regions—such as the US Gulf Coast—have tidal properties that lead to long high-water stands ( > 20 hours). For the same inundation depth of 0.2 m, regions with large semidiurnal tides are inundated for only 1-2 hours. Within individual estuaries, the potential duration can vary by a factor of more than two. Combined with relative sea-level rise rates that vary from less than 0 mm/yr to 10 mm/yr around North America, the observed timescale to transition from a zero to two-hour tidal flood length varies from 1-87 years. This large spatial variability in tidal inundation properties has implications for hazard planning, ecological adaptation and the future evolution of coastal flood events.

Meteorology. Climatology, Disasters and engineering
DOAJ Open Access 2025
The Christchurch post-earthquake reconstruction – Year 14 update

Michel Bruneau, Gregory MacRae

Reconstruction of buildings in the Christchurch central business district following the 2011 earthquake has been a massive undertaking that is not yet completed. Interviews have been conducted with representatives of the consulting engineering companies who designed 55 of these buildings from 2017 until 2025 to determine: (i) the building construction materials and structural system types used, and (ii) the drivers for the selection of these systems. The information obtained is compared with a 2017 survey, by the authors, with the same design companies for buildings constructed from 2012 to 2017, as part of the Christchurch rebuild after the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes. It is found that 47 % and 45 % of the buildings constructed had steel and concrete lateral force resisting systems, respectively, with the remainder using timber. In terms of floor space areas, the steel buildings were typically larger and the ratios were 70 % and 24 %, respectively. The most popular structural steel seismic systems were MRFs and BRBFs with 29 % and 20 % of the floor areas, respectively. Gravity systems, when needed, were generally steel. Although slightly different, these numbers are similar in magnitude to those reported in the prior study. However, comparing the factors driving choice of structure systems reported in the previous study, many of the engineers interviewed commented that, as the Canterbury earthquakes became further away in time, fewer of their clients requested resilient designs that would help achieve functionality (e.g., maintain business continuity) following future earthquakes, requesting instead lowest-cost designs. Nonetheless, it is expected that much of the newer construction will provide improvements in seismic performance given that many buildings were designed for significantly higher strength and lower drift than permitted in the standards.

Disasters and engineering, Cities. Urban geography
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Study on separated layer water burst mechanism for weakly cemented giant thick glutenite

Jianghua LI

There is a giant thick glutenite aquifer with weak water-bearing intensity on the main coal seam in Anxin Coal Field. However, water inrush disasters occurred in several working faces during mining. Finding out the water inrush mechanism is the basis of mine water disaster control. Based on the analysis of hydrogeological characteristics, the zoning characteristics of the thickness and water-rich intensity of the glutenite aquifer were elucidated. By means of uniaxial compressive strength, triaxial acoustic emission and X-ray diffraction, the physical and mechanical properties of the roof aquiclude were obtained. Based on theoretical analysis of key layers, the relationship of fracture zone and mining catchment zone, and similar simulation tests, four hydrogeological structure model of water inrush for the glutenite aquifer were established and water inrush mechanisms for the glutenite aquifer were revealed. At last, the engineering criteria and prevention measures for water proof protective layer instability were put forward. The research results showed that the aquifer in the eastern part of the study area is moderately water-rich, and many water inrush occurred in the weak water-rich area in the past. The clay mineral content in the roof mudstone reached 59.6% with a strong hydrophilicity and good water-resisting property. The strength of the roof aquiclude decreased after mining, and it was easily become good water-conducting channel under the action of upper rock load and hydrostatic pressure of mining catchment zone. The glutenite aquifer had special physical and mechanical properties, and pore-fissures developed and changed to be water-bearing abnormal zone after mining disturbance. The water inrush intensity of giant thick glutenite was related to the characteristics of the lower bedrock, the height of the water-conducting fissure zone and the thickness of the water-proof protective layer. The engineering criterion of water burst for weakly cemented glutenite is the protective layer less than 30 m in the normal area and less than 60m in the geological structure area respectively. Study on the separated layer water burst mechanism and engineering criterion for weakly cemented giant thick glutenite can provide reference for the water inrush prevention in the western coal fields.

Mining engineering. Metallurgy
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Evaluation of a weather forecasting model and HEC-HMS for flood forecasting: case study of Talesh catchment

Mohammad Reza Goodarzi, Mohammad Javad Poorattar, Majid Vazirian et al.

Abstract Reports demonstrate that floods are among the most prevalent and deadliest natural disasters affecting 520 million people annually. The present study seeks to evaluate flood forecasting using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model. To this end, WRF and HEC-HMS were calibrated by comparing their results with the data observed at measuring stations. Then, the output rainfall data of the WRF model were implemented by the calibrated HEC-HMS model and were examined using the statistical indices, which were revealed to be 4.13, 3.42, and 2.67 for the flow volume and 6.2, 2.46, and 5.11 for the peak flow, suggesting the accurate performance of WRF model alongside HEC-HMS in the Talesh catchment.

Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes
S2 Open Access 2023
A networked risk perspective for analysing debris flow losses factors considering mitigation measures

Yu-xin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Gang Fan et al.

ABSTRACT As debris flow disasters are becoming increasingly severe worldwide, it is necessary to deepen the research on disaster losses, especially the impact and role of disaster mitigation measures. Based on the regional disaster system theory, this paper sets an influencing factor system of debris flow losses. Then, from the perspective of networked risk, the risk propagation network is established through the Delphi method. Finally, the social network analysis method is introduced to discuss the risk propagation relationship between these factors from two aspects of the overall network analysis and node centrality analysis. The results reveal the chain-like influence characteristics of factors and clarify the main points relevant departments should emphasise in disaster risk reduction. Environmental and engineering mitigation measures strongly influence other factors, thus dominating the risk propagation in forming debris flow losses. The peril of debris flow, residents’ escape ability, and emergency rescue can be easily influenced by other factors, so increasing the resistance of these sensitive factors to the source of influence would support loss reduction. The research results can be applied to risk assessment and loss reduction of debris flow disasters.

DOAJ Open Access 2023
THE "INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND EDUCATION, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION" MODE OF TRAINING TALENTS IN GEOMATICS

C. Zhao, Z. Li, S. Zhang et al.

With the rapid development of GNSS, high-resolution remote sensing, InSAR, LiDAR and other earth observation technologies, advanced technical conditions are provided for the training of talents in the field of geomatics. The discipline of surveying and mapping science and technology in Chang'an University has been integrated with engineering geology and geohazards over decades, forming one of the special research directions, that is, development of earth observation techniques and the applications in geological disasters. Therefore, we have formed the "integration of science and education, international cooperation" characteristic talent training mode. The specific initiatives include six aspects, namely, concentrating featured discipline directions, building scientific research platforms and teams, recruiting and developing outstanding talents, undertaking major scientific projects, strengthening the integration of science and education, and expanding international exchanges and cooperation, which ultimately serves the goal of improving the quality of personnel training in geomatics.

Technology, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
S2 Open Access 2022
Disaster resilience and sustainability of incarceration infrastructures: A review of the literature

Sara Glade, Skye Niles, S. Roudbari et al.

This review evaluates the state of academic literature on disaster resilience and sustainability of incarceration infrastructures, focusing on engineering and architecture. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate crises, including global pandemics and ecological disasters, and the rise of mass incarceration around the world makes such a review timely. We conducted six targeted searches to identify relevant journal articles and two additional searches for literature on resilience and sustainability of schools for comparison. We present data on the results for all search categories, including search terms and qualitative interpretation of the literature. For three of our searches, we present metadata on the specific intersection with incarceration infrastructures investigated, type of facility, and location. We supplement our database search with governmental and nongovernmental agency publications. The results of our search demonstrate a dearth in academic research published at the intersection of incarceration, disaster resilience, and sustainability. This gap in the literature signals a lack of attention and knowledge about the ways researchers and practitioners as well as governmental agencies can predict and mitigate the impact of disasters on incarcerated people's lives. Overall, this paper offers an introduction on the topic of resilience and sustainability of engineering and architectural design for incarceration infrastructure, as well as future areas for additional research including how engineers and architects can engage with questions of prison abolition and justice.

21 sitasi en Medicine
S2 Open Access 2021
System reliability and system resilience

M. Zuo

With the development of new technology, engineering systems are becoming more complex in structure and possessing more advanced functions. Customers are setting higher quality requirements for new products. Reliability must be considered in all aspects of the product life cycle. Inadequate reliability considerations may cause civil aviation disasters, nuclear power plant accidents, spacecraft launch failures, power system shutdowns, and other major accidents. Since the emergence of the reliability discipline in the 1950s, reliability theory has been developing rapidly, which has played an irreplaceable role in promoting the progress of major industries such as aviation, aerospace, and nuclear energy. It has also greatly improved the quality of daily necessities such as computers, appliances, and automobiles. The capability of manufacturing high-end equipment with high reliability and long life has become an important strategic indicator of a country’s global strength and competitiveness. In recent years, due to climate change and ecosystem degradation, extreme weather has become more frequent all over the world. Under unusual conditions such as extreme weather and external attacks, it is no longer possible for sophisticated engineering systems to meet their performance requirements if only traditional reliability indexes are used, and resilience has become an important index to consider for system design, evaluation, and optimization. To respond to the increasingly complex international environment and diversified challenges, the US has been requiring military equipment systems to ensure functional stability under uncertain and diverse combat conditions, to have the ability to quickly restore functions after experiencing damage, and to adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. Around 2010, the US Department of Defense introduced the concept of “resilience” into weapon and equipment development and established the Engineering Resilience System Project. This project formulated a long-term strategy to continuously improve the resilience of weapon equipment through its design, improvement, manufacturing, and deployment. Resilience has become a new important guiding performance index throughout the entire lifecycle of weapon equipment in the US (Scott, 2012). Actually, resilience has become a key performance index of all critical systems including power grid, infrastructure, and communication systems.

49 sitasi en
S2 Open Access 2021
Quantifying disaster resilience of a community with interdependent civil infrastructure systems

N. Blagojević, Fiona Hefti, Jonas Henken et al.

Abstract Disaster resilient civil infrastructure systems are essential for disaster resilient communities. Measuring the resilience of these systems is the first step towards their improvement. This, however, is not easy: civil infrastructure systems are highly complex, operate in different ways, and are affected differently in different disasters. Adding to the complexity are the dynamic interdependencies among components of such systems, that change as the community is recovering. The Re-CoDeS framework for quantifying disaster resilience measures the lack of resilience of a system (e.g., a community) as the amount of the system’s unmet demand for a considered resource or service over the resilience assessment interval. This paper presents a novel demand/supply-based method to consider dynamic component interdependencies by extending the Re-CoDeS framework: whenever the demand of a component is not met by the currently available supply capacity of the system, that component ceases to operate and its supply capacity decreases. The proposed iRe-CoDeS framework is demonstrated on a virtual community served by three interdependent civil infrastructure systems producing five types of resources and services. Step-by-step instructions for defining a community model within the iRe-CoDeS framework are presented to facilitate the use of the proposed framework.

42 sitasi en
S2 Open Access 2021
Investigations into the design of sand control fence for Gobi buildings

Guowei Xin, N. Huang, Jie Zhang et al.

Abstract Wind-blown sand disasters, as an environmental problem, have great impact on human activities. Sand fence has been recognized as an efficiency technology in anti-desertification engineering and is wildly applied to protect highways and railways around the desert. But few people study its protection to Gobi buildings, which may also suffer from sand disaster. To study its protection to Gobi buildings, we systemically investigate the three-dimensional structure of wind field and sand distribution around sand fence for buildings by Computational Fluid Dynamic simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The dependencies of sand-prevention efficiency on fence height, porosity, inclined slat angle and wind speed are proposed respectively. An optimal height of sand fence is suggested to be 2.0 m−2.5 m, and an optimal porosity is 10%−15%, by synthetically considering the factors of sand prevention efficiency and construction cost; the slat angles of inclined fence is recommended as 135°−150° for maximizing the sand sedimentation on the windward side of fence.

41 sitasi en Environmental Science
DOAJ Open Access 2022
Effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone trends and age of air from a chemical transport model

Y. Li, S. S. Dhomse, S. S. Dhomse et al.

<p>We use TOMCAT, a 3-dimensional (3D) offline chemical transport model (CTM) forced by two different meteorological reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim and ERA5) from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to analyse seasonal behaviour and long-term trends in stratospheric ozone and mean age of air. The model-simulated ozone variations are evaluated against two observation-based data sets. For total column ozone (TCO) comparisons, we use the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data (1979–2019), while for ozone profiles we use the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set (1984–2019). We find that the CTM simulations forced by ERA-Interim (A_ERAI) and ERA5 (B_ERA5) can both successfully reproduce the spatial and temporal variations in stratospheric ozone. Also, modelled TCO anomalies from B_ERA5 show better agreement with C3S than A_ERAI, especially in Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid latitudes, except that it gives somewhat larger positive biases (<span class="inline-formula">&gt;</span> 15 DU, Dobson units) during winter–spring seasons. Ozone profile comparisons against SWOOSH data show larger differences between the two simulations. In the lower stratosphere, ozone differences can be directly attributed to the representation of dynamical processes, whereas in the upper stratosphere they can be directly linked to the differences in temperatures between ERAI and ERA5 data sets. Although TCO anomalies from B_ERA5 show relatively better agreement with C3S compared to A_ERAI, a comparison with SWOOSH data does not confirm that B_ERA5 performs better at simulating the variations in the stratospheric ozone profiles. We employ a multivariate regression model to quantify the TCO and ozone profile trends before and after peak stratospheric halogen loading in 1997. Our results show that, compared to C3S, TCO recovery trends (since 1998) in simulation B_ERA5 are significantly overestimated in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid latitudes, while for A_ERAI in the NH mid latitudes, simulated ozone trends remain negative. Similarly, in the lower stratosphere, B_ERA5 shows positive ozone recovery trends for both NH and SH mid latitudes. In contrast, both SWOOSH and A_ERAI show opposite (negative) trends in the NH mid latitudes.</p> <p>Furthermore, we analyse age of air (AoA) trends to diagnose transport differences between the two reanalysis data sets. Simulation B_ERA5 shows a positive AoA trend after 1998 and somewhat older age in the NH lower stratosphere compared to A_ERAI, indicating that a slower Brewer–Dobson circulation does not translate into reduced wintertime ozone buildup in the NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Overall, our results show that models forced by the most recent ERA5 reanalyses may not yet be capable of reproducing observed changes in stratospheric ozone, particularly in the lower stratosphere.</p>

Physics, Chemistry
DOAJ Open Access 2022
Papel dos agentes de proteção civil na segurança comunitária – a relevância dos corpos de bombeiros –

António Duarte Amaro

O papel da proteção civil na segurança comunitária é hoje uma das temáticas mais prementes e prioritárias nos debates da atualidade nacional e internacional, em diferentes escalas. Entre nós, para se realizar, a proteção civil recorre a um conjunto de agentes, com relevância para ao Corpos de Bombeiros suportados, na sua maioria, por Associações Humanitárias. Entretanto, sem prejuízo desta relevância dos Corpos de Bombeiros a reforma aprovada a partir de julho/2006, reforçou a autoridade do Estado no setor e definiu as atribuições, competências e responsabilidades dos diversos agentes de proteção civil, enquadrando-as no Sistema Integrado de Operações de Socorro. Ora, é na coordenação dos diversos agentes com culturas e formação diferenciadas, que reside um dos principais problemas da gestão operacional da proteção civil.

Disasters and engineering
DOAJ Open Access 2022
Clustering model responses in the frequency space for improved simulation‐based flood risk studies: The role of a cluster number

Anna E. Sikorska‐Senoner

Abstract Hydrologic models are often employed in flood risk studies to simulate possible hydrologic responses. They are, however, linked with uncertainty that is commonly represented with uncertainty intervals constructed based on a simulation ensemble. This work adapts an alternative clustering‐based approach to first, learn about hydrological responses in the frequency space, and second, select an optimal number of clusters and corresponding representative parameters sets for a hydrologic model. Each cluster is described with three parameter sets, which enable percentile and prediction intervals to be constructed. Based on a small Swiss catchment with 10,000 years of daily pseudo‐discharge simulations, it was found that clustering the ensemble of 1000 members into 5–7 groups is optimal to derive reliable flood prediction intervals in the frequency space. This lowers the computational costs of using a hydrological model by 98%. The developed approach is suitable for probabilistic flood risk analysis with current or future climate conditions to assess hydrologic changes.

River protective works. Regulation. Flood control, Disasters and engineering
S2 Open Access 2020
Effects of loading rate on the compound dynamic disaster in deep underground coal mine under true triaxial stress

Jun Lu, Dongming Zhang, Gun Huang et al.

Abstract The compound dynamic disaster is an abrupt and violent energy-releasing process under the combined action of gas and geological tectonic stress in deep underground coal mines. To investigate the occurrence mechanism of compound dynamic disasters, a novel experimental approach was designed and the one free-face true triaxial tests with different loading rates were conducted. Results shown that the compound dynamic disaster can be classified into several stages: initial quiet period, local particles and fragments ejecting, mid-term quiet period, external coal plate bending accompanied by gas-emitting, dynamic disaster occurring process, and the final re-stabilized period. The presence of the gas can significantly facilitate the development of cracks and enhance the kinetic energy, thus increasing the probability of the compound dynamic disasters. Under the one free-face true triaxial engineering stress conditions, the mechanical properties (e.g. deformation and strength) of coal samples are obviously rate-dependent, and the peak stress exhibits an approximate logarithmically increase trend with increasing loading rate. After failure, several tensile-shear fractures approximately parallel to the intermediate principal stress direction and perpendicular to the free face are generated. And an arc-shaped coal-burst pit on the free face of coal sample is observed, and the pit volume increases with the increase of the loading rate. Moreover, the particle ejection kinetic energy increases gradually as the loading rate increased, suggesting a higher loading rate can enhance the intensity of the disaster. The findings may provide guidance for the prevention and control of the compound dynamic disasters in deep underground coal mines.

64 sitasi en Geology
S2 Open Access 2021
Social resilience and its scale effects along the historical Tea-Horse Road

L. Yang, Junxu Chen, J. Geng et al.

This study adopted an empirical analysis to explore social resilience to major natural disasters along the Tea-Horse Road (THR) in southwest China and to understand why and how the THR and its connected communities maintained and developed over a long period. A set of archive data, literature re-analysis, statistical data, monitoring data, and surveyed materials were collected and qualitatively and quantitatively analysed to support a holistic investigation of disaster impacts and social resilience. The results indicate that (a) natural disasters occurred frequently but were distributed over place and time and had various impacts, which left possibilities for maintaining social development with diverse and specific coping strategies; (b) strong central and local governance continually improved infrastructure and engineering technologies, and collaboration in social networks with local experience and disaster cultures were the major contributing factors that enhanced social resilience at various levels; (c) the THR area demonstrated various features of social resilience to natural disasters in terms of spatial-temporal scales, where the combination of multiple resilience measures enabled the resilience of the entire social system at various places over long time periods. Generally, larger social systems with diverse response capabilities were more resilient than small and individual entities over a long time scale. The study highlights that the THR region withstood frequent natural disasters but maintained a general development of social economy, transportation, and advanced technologies, and performed a positive transformation to a more resilient status. Overall, this paper describes the scale effects of multiple resilience measures along the THR and calls for specific studies on social resilience and transformation of diverse social entities over multiple spatial-temporal scales.

30 sitasi en Physics, Geography

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