Probabilistic Frequency Hazard Analysis: Adapting the Seismic Hazard Framework to Power System Frequency Exceedance Risk
Sewedo Todowede
The declining synchronous inertia in power systems undergoing the energy transition increases the sensitivity of system frequency to generation and interconnector disturbances, making accurate frequency risk quantification increasingly important. Existing methods for frequency risk assessment, while valuable, lack formal uncertainty quantification, continuous hazard curves, and source-level disaggregation. This paper introduces Probabilistic Frequency Hazard Analysis (PFHA), a framework that adapts the mathematical architecture of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), the standard methodology in earthquake engineering, to power system frequency exceedance risk. The PFHA hazard integral computes annual exceedance rates by integrating over all combinations of loss sources, disturbance sizes, and system operating states through a frequency response prediction equation with calibrated aleatory variability. The framework is implemented with a 51-source catalogue constructed from operational data, empirical loss distributions from settlement-period generation records, Bayesian occurrence rate estimation, a dual analytical and physics-based frequency response prediction architecture, and a 324-path logic tree for epistemic uncertainty quantification. Application to the Great Britain power system using four years of operational data demonstrates agreement with the independently developed Frequency Risk and Control Report to within a factor of 1.5 at 49.2 Hz, while also quantifying the risk reduction from Dynamic Containment and Low-Frequency Demand Disconnection controls. To the author's knowledge, this is the first published explicit PSHA-style hazard-integral formulation for bulk power-system frequency exceedance risk.
Comment on "Average Hazard as Harmonic Mean" by Chiba
Hajime Uno, Lu Tian, Miki Horiguchi
et al.
In a recent article published in Pharmaceutical Statistics, Chiba proposed a reinterpretation of the average hazard as a harmonic mean of the hazard function and questioned the validity of the Kaplan-Meier plug-in estimator when the truncation time does not coincide with an observed event time. In this commentary, we examine the arguments presented and highlight several points that warrant clarification. Through simulation studies, we further show that the plug-in estimator provides reliable estimates across a range of truncation times, even in small samples. These support the continued utilization of the Kaplan-Meier plug-in estimator for the average hazard and help clarify its proper interpretation and implementation.
A Bayesian Network Method for Deaggregation: Identification of Tropical Cyclones Driving Coastal Hazards
Ziyue Liu, Meredith L. Carr, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo
et al.
Bayesian networks (BN) have advantages in visualizing causal relationships and performing probabilistic inference analysis, making them ideal tools for coastal hazard analysis and characterizing the compound mechanisms of coastal hazards. Meanwhile, the Joint Probability Method (JPM) has served as the primary probabilistic assessment approach used to develop hazard curves for tropical cyclone (TC) induced coastal hazards in the past decades. To develop hazard curves that can capture the breadth of TC-induced coastal hazards, a large number of synthetic TCs need to be simulated, which is computationally expensive. Given that low exceedance probability (LEP) coastal hazards are likely to result in the most significant damage to coastal communities, it is practical to focus efforts on identifying and understanding TC scenarios that are dominant contributors to LEP coastal hazards. This study developed a BN-based framework incorporating existing JPM for multiple TC-induced coastal hazards deaggregation. Copula-based models capture dependence among TC atmospheric parameters and generate CPTs for corresponding BN nodes. Machine learning surrogates model the relationship between TC parameters and coastal hazards, providing conditional probability tables (CPTs) for hazard nodes. Case studies are applied to the Greater New Orleans region in Louisiana (USA). Deaggregation is a method for identifying dominant scenarios for a given hazard, which was first established in the field of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The objective of this study is to leverage BN to develop a deaggregation method of multiple LEP coastal hazards to better understand the dominant drivers of coastal hazards to refine storm parameter set selection to more comprehensively represent multiple forcings.
SHAZAM: Self-Supervised Change Monitoring for Hazard Detection and Mapping
Samuel Garske, Konrad Heidler, Bradley Evans
et al.
The increasing frequency of environmental hazards due to climate change underscores the urgent need for effective monitoring systems. Current approaches either rely on expensive labelled datasets, struggle with seasonal variations, or require multiple observations for confirmation (which delays detection). To address these challenges, this work presents SHAZAM - Self-Supervised Change Monitoring for Hazard Detection and Mapping. SHAZAM uses a lightweight conditional UNet to generate expected images of a region of interest (ROI) for any day of the year, allowing for the direct modelling of normal seasonal changes and the ability to distinguish potential hazards. A modified structural similarity measure compares the generated images with actual satellite observations to compute region-level anomaly scores and pixel-level hazard maps. Additionally, a theoretically grounded seasonal threshold eliminates the need for dataset-specific optimisation. Evaluated on four diverse datasets that contain bushfires (wildfires), burned regions, extreme and out-of-season snowfall, floods, droughts, algal blooms, and deforestation, SHAZAM achieved F1 score improvements of between 0.066 and 0.234 over existing methods. This was achieved primarily through more effective hazard detection (higher recall) while using only 473K parameters. SHAZAM demonstrated superior mapping capabilities through higher spatial resolution and improved ability to suppress background features while accentuating both immediate and gradual hazards. SHAZAM has been established as an effective and generalisable solution for hazard detection and mapping across different geographical regions and a diverse range of hazards. The Python code is available at: https://github.com/WiseGamgee/SHAZAM
Перспективы применения микроволнового излучения для пиролиза различных видов пластиковых отходов
Ковалева, Н.Ю.
Применение микроволнового излучения для пиролиза является одной из наиболее перспективных технологий переработки пластиковых отходов и биомассы в ценные органические продукты. В обзоре подробно освещается микроволновый пиролиз как альтернатива традиционному пиролизу из-за его преимущества в обеспечении быстрого и эффективного нагрева. В статье рассматриваются ключевые параметры, влияющие на выход и состав продуктов пиролиза: различные типы пластика и поглотителя, температура, мощность микроволн, время пребывания и катализаторы. Приводятся примеры оценки энергетического баланса и технико-экономического анализа процесса микроволнового пиролиза. Обсуждаются основные проблемы и ограничения этого процесса. Проанализированы возможности использования микроволнового пиролиза в промышленных масштабах.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
Исследование сорбционных свойств сорбента на основе наноразмерного углерода по отношению к ионам La(III) и оптимизация условий сорбции методом математического моделирования
Ильясова, Р.Р., Москова, А.В., Массалимов, И.А.
et al.
Изучены сорбционные свойства наноразмерного углерода (размер частиц 10‒100 нм с максимумом 30 нм) по отношению к ионам La(III). Установлено, что сорбция ионов La(III) частицами наноразмерного углерода описывается моделью Ленгмюра. Оптимизация условий сорбции позволила достичь высокой сорбционной активности наноразмерного углерода по отношению к ионам La(III) и составила 87%. Приведена математическая модель процесса сорбции, рассчитанная на базе программного обеспечения OpenFOAM, которая показала, что максимальная концентрация ионов La(III) наблюдалась на поверхности сорбента. Проведенные исследования направлены на разработку эффективного сорбента для извлечения ионов La(III) из сточных вод промышленных предприятий.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
The handling of healthcare waste analysis with an interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy-based decision-making technique
Murat Kirişci, Serdar Kuzu, Ali Kablan
Medical waste risks people and the environment because it can be infectious and contain hazardous substances. For patients to receive medical attention and recover in a safe environment, garbage must be disposed of correctly. Improper medical waste disposal poses a severe risk to society, which can accelerate the development of various pandemics and epidemics. In this case, medical waste disposal should be handled appropriately. This study presents an integrated multi-criteria decision-making method based on an interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy set. In interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy set, the set of all closed intervals in the unit interval [0,1] is used, and membership and non-membership interval values are taken, making it possible to cover many more elements. The study used entropy, Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) methods defined with interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy numbers. To calculate the criteria weights, the combined entropy-SWARA method is used to compute the objective and subjective weights, respectively. Furthermore, the WASPAS model is utilized to rank alternatives to healthcare waste disposal techniques. After determining the weights of the experts, the rankings of the criteria and alternatives were determined. This method can guarantee high safety and security for health practitioners and society through effective modeling and ranking of risks associated with medical waste disposal. Five alternatives and eight criteria were determined. The analysis for healthcare waste found that incineration ranked highest among other criteria, followed by electromagnetic wave sterilization, disinfection with chemicals, landfill, and encapsulation. In addition, the work’s findings demonstrated that the integrated approach was efficient and helpful in selecting the best disposal technique in healthcare institutions and healthcare waste service companies for healthcare waste management. The performance was then assessed and validated using a sensitivity analysis. For Sensitivity Analysis, experts can adjust the model’s sensitivity by changing the ϑ values. In addition, the study’s findings and their consequences for lawmakers, businesspeople, technologists, and practitioners are examined. In the future, these stakeholders can concentrate on these deficiencies and provide long-term remedies.
Environmental sciences, Technology
Investigating the Relationship between Personality Factors and Suicide Risk
Tooba Tabatabai, Parvaneh Rashidpour, Hamidreza Ghasemirad
et al.
Background: The present study aimed to investigate personality traits of patients who commit suicide by drug intoxication.
Methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated 180 patients who attempted suicide by drug intoxication at Shahid Beheshti Hospital, Yazd, Iran in 2022. Due to the census design, all patients who met the study criteria were enrolled.
The risk of committing suicide was divided into low, low-to-moderate, and moderate-to-high risk categories using the Paterson criteria. Personality characteristics of the participants were compared using the temperament and character inventory (TCI) in different groups of suicide-attempting risk. Data were evaluated using SPSS version 23. Kruskal-Wallis test and Chi-Square test were used for analysis.
Results: The frequency of patients with low, low-to-moderate, and moderate-to-high risk of committing suicide accounted for 45.6%, 46.2%, and 7.2%, respectively. Reward dependence (RD) (P-value = 0.011) and cooperation (P-value = 0.003) represented significant decreases with increasing suicide risk using Kruskal-Wallis test. Other factors of the TCI, including novelty seeking (NS) (P-value = 0.880), harm avoidance (HA) (P-value = 0.660), persistence (P) (P-value = 0.361), self-directedness (SD) (P-value = 0.138), and self-transcendence (ST) (P-value = 0.623), were not associated with the risk of suicide attempt. There was a significant difference in the frequency of factors associated with the risk of suicide, including marital status, depression, and alcohol addiction in terms of age, and sex using Chi Square test (P<0.05).. Conclusion: These results highlight the potential importance of reward dependence and cooperation in understanding suicide risk. In this regard, lower reward dependence and reduced cooperation are associated with higher suicide risk, while other psychological traits assessed by the TCI may not be as relevant.
Communities. Classes. Races, Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Bioremediation of Sewage Water by Three Extracellular Polymeric Substances (EPS) Producing Bacterial Strains using Molasses as A Carbon Source
Manu Solanki, Madhulika Chauhan, Vandana Nandal
Heavy metal pollution is a growing environmental concern that affects ecosystem, human health and biodiversity. Cadmium is one of the most hazardous heavy metal, exhibiting high toxicity in plants, animals and humans. It is widely distributed in environment due to industrial activities, urbanization and improper waste disposal. This necessitates the removal of toxic metals from the wastewater and soil sediments. Bioremediation using microorganisms promises to be an excellent choice for the detoxification of heavy metals from wastewater. Molasses, a cost effective by product of sugar industry serves as an excellent carbon source for bacterial EPS production. Integrating molassess based EPS production with microbial bioremediation holds promise for sustainable pollution control and waste management. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of three extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) producing bacteria EPS-1, EPS-2 and EPS-3, to remove cadmium from sewage wastewater using molasses as a source of carbon. The bioremediation of cadmium from sewage water was examined under in vitro conditions. The removal efficiency (%) of Cd2+ by the isolates was determined by using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS). Results showed that EPS-1 had maximum removal efficiency of 51%, while the removal by EPS-2 and EPS-3 was found to be 37% and 49%, respectively after 72 h of incubation under in vitro conditions in sewage water amended with molasses. If combined with inexpensive carbon sources, bioremediation of sewage water using EPS producing bacteria might be a more economical and sustainable option than chemical treatments. The results signify the potential of bacterial strains for their application in large scale removal of Cd2+ present in polluted water.
Management of waste containing polybrominated diphenyl ethers: A review
Olga Kostenko, Lisveth Flores del Pino, Paola Jorge-Montalvo
et al.
Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are substances used as flame retardants that can be released into the environment through volatilization, leaching, and abrasion throughout the useful life of the articles that contain them, especially at the end of their life cycle because PBDEs do not chemically bind to the initial materials (electrical and electronic equipment, textiles, materials used in transport vehicles, toys, among others). Research has shown that the toxic effects and risks of PBDEs to ecosystems and human health are greater than their benefits owing to their neurotoxicity, toxicity to the endocrine and reproductive systems, and possible carcinogenicity. This review shows the current situation of management of waste containing PBDEs (plastics, sludge, soil, and ash) and the characterization, valorization, treatment, and final disposal of these wastes, to minimize their impacts on ecosystems and human health are analyzed. Wastes with concentrations greater than 1000 mg/kg of PBDE should be considered as hazardous waste. This research identifies the methods available to reduce the risk in their management; at the same time, it provides innovative ideas for the integrated management of PBDE-containing wastes, prioritizing their valorization and disposal.
Science (General), Social sciences (General)
Perturbation of enzyme structure by nano-metal organic frameworks: A question mark on their safety-by-design?
Swaroop Chakraborty, Bashiru Ibrahim, Pankti Dhumal
et al.
Our study investigates the interactions between nanoscale Metal-Organic Frameworks (nMOFs), specifically ZIF-8 and CuIm, and key enzymes: Acetylcholine Esterase (AChE), α-amylase. Using circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy, we observed significant alterations in the secondary structures of these enzymes upon interaction with nMOFs. AChE showed a reduction in α-helix content from 20.1 % to a significantly lower value when exposed to 160 µg/mL of nMOFs, with a corresponding increase in β-sheet and other structural components. Enzymatic activity assays revealed that CuIm nMOFs decreased AChE activity by 67.08 % at the highest concentration tested (160 µg/mL). ZIF-8 also affected AChE activity significantly at this concentration. Similarly, α-amylase exhibited structural changes, with increasing concentrations of nMOFs leading to a near-total loss of secondary structure at 80 and 160 µg/mL. These structural changes were accompanied by a marked decrease in enzymatic activity, particularly with CuIm nMOFs showing the most substantial inhibitory effects. Our findings highlight the profound impact of nMOFs on enzyme structures and functions, emphasising the need for comprehensive assessments of nMOFs' potential toxicity and understanding the aspects of their safety-by-design.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in feathers of waterbirds (Ardeidae) from Poyang Lake, China: Bioaccumulation, distribution, and environmental relevance
Nannan Wan, Bo Zhou, Limin Mo
et al.
Studies on the distribution characteristics and environmental relevance of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in waterbird feathers are scarce. In the present study, the concentrations of twenty-three PFAS in the remiges, coverts, body, down, and tail feathers of three common species of Ardeidae (little egret, grey heron, and Chinese pond-heron) in Poyang Lake were investigated. The total PFAS concentrations in the pinna and scapus were 38 – 42 ng/g dry weight (dw) and 21 – 38 ng/g dw, respectively; long-chain C9–14 perfluorocarboxylic acids were abundant in all feathers. Most PFAS accumulated in the pinna; however, perfluorohexane sulfonic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonamide were predominant in the scapus. The PFAS concentrations were higher in the tail and flight feathers than in the cover and body feathers. Furthermore, the concentrations of PFAS in waterbird feathers were comparable with those in fish and higher than those in benthic invertebrates, all of which originated from Poyang Lake. The PFAS profiles in feathers were significantly and positively correlated with those in fish (r > 0.71) and benthos (r > 0.43). These results suggest that waterbird feather is a suitable biomonitor of PFAS contamination in regional freshwater ecosystems.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
Self-Compassion in the Relationship between Personality Traits and Bedtime Procrastination
Seyedeh Zahra Mohtarami Zavardeh, Mitra Ashoori, Saeideh Bazzazian
Background: Since sleep is considered an important factor for the physical and mental health of humans, it is very important to pay attention to its quantity quality and abnormalities during it. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the role of self-compassion mediation in the relationship between Personality traits and bedtime procrastination.
Methods: The research method was descriptive-correlational. The statistical population included all undergraduate students of the humanities faculties of Tehran University in the academic year of 2022-2023, who were selected through Cluster sampling of 343 students. Data collection tools included the Bedtime Procrastination Questionnaire (BPS), Self-Compassion Questionnaire (SCS), and Neo Personality Questionnaire (FFI-NEO). Finally, the data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation method and structural equations using SPSS version 22 and AMOS version 24 Software.
Results: The goodness of fit index for the research model was significant, which indicated the appropriate fit of the model. The result showed that the direct effect of personality and bedtime procrastination was -0.36 and the indirect effect of personality through self-compassion and bedtime procrastination was -0.19.
Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that personality and self-compassion play an important role in bedtime procrastination. Therefore, the relations obtained can be used to improve the lifestyle and promote sleep health in students and other people.
Communities. Classes. Races, Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Modeling tsunammi inundation for hazard assessment of the Coral Coast of Fiji: Communities of Sigatoka and Cuvu
Diego Arcas, Christopher Moore
A tsunami hazard assessment was conducted for the communities of Sigatoka and Cuvu, located on the island of Viti Levu, Fiji. The study presents an overview of historical seismic and tsunami impact on the Pacific Island nation of Fiji in order to identify source areas of relevance to the study. In addition, the sensitivity of the Coral Coast of Viti Levu to tsunamis coming from different parts of the New Hebrides and Tonga-Kermadec Subduction zones was investigated and used to select worst case tsunami scenarios. Following the methodology developed at the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (Tang et al, 2006) more than 40 tsunami simulations were conducted on a low-resolution model. Four of the sources simulated were selected as the most hazardous to the area of interest and were subsequently modeled on a high-resolution (10 meter) grid of Sigatoka and Cuvu. To these sources, an ensemble of 20 additional sources in the Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone were selected for evaluation. These sources were identified in an Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) report (IOC Working Report No. 289, 2018) by a group of seismic experts on tsunami sources in the region. Finally, one source from a 2022 study conducted by NCTR for the US Department of State to assess tsunami hazard to the city of Suva, Fiji using a probabilistic approach was selected for simulation on the high-resolution model. The non-linear shallow water wave inundation Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model (Titov and González, 1997) is one of the tsunami modeling codes in use by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP, 2011), (NTHMP, 2017) of the US to conduct tsunami inundation studies with the purpose of developing evacuations maps. The MOST code was used in this study to determine tsunami maximum amplitude, arrival and duration times, flow depths, tsunami inundation, current speeds and attenuation.
Particle size matters: Discrepancies in the health risks posed by traditional cigarettes and e-cigarettes in mice and humans
Li-Ti Chou, Tsai-Ling Chen, Kai-Chien Yang
et al.
Electronic cigarettes (ECs), considered a healthier alternative to traditional cigarettes (TCs), vaporize e-liquid, which may produce harmful by-products due to thermal decomposition and metal transfer. These by-products' deposition in the respiratory tract is largely determined by particle size distribution (PSD). We employ the Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model to assess particle deposition within the human and mouse respiratory tracts. Leveraging the known connection between TC smoke inhalation and atherosclerosis, we used human aortic endothelial cells (HAECs) and ApoE-/- mice to explore the potential effects of EC aerosol inhalation on atherosclerosis. Our findings reveal that TCs exhibit a highly variable PSD, with mean diameters of approximately 300 nm for mainstream (MS) smoke and 120 nm for side stream (SS) smoke. Conversely, ECs demonstrate a more stable PSD. Combined with MPPD, the deposition fraction in the human respiratory system and mice is mainly deposited in the pulmonary region and head airway. For the Apoe-/- mice exposure experiment, preliminary findings suggest a potential impact on atherosclerosis, although not statistically significant, likely due to the limited sample size and exposure duration. This study highlights the importance of considering PSD, exposure dosage, and species-specific differences in risk assessments of EC aerosols.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
The Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health
Philip J. Landrigan, Hervé Raps, Maureen Cropper
et al.
Background: Plastics have conveyed great benefits to humanity and made possible some of the most significant advances of modern civilization in fields as diverse as medicine, electronics, aerospace, construction, food packaging, and sports. It is now clear, however, that plastics are also responsible for significant harms to human health, the economy, and the earth’s environment. These harms occur at every stage of the plastic life cycle, from extraction of the coal, oil, and gas that are its main feedstocks through to ultimate disposal into the environment. The extent of these harms not been systematically assessed, their magnitude not fully quantified, and their economic costs not comprehensively counted. Goals: The goals of this Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health are to comprehensively examine plastics’ impacts across their life cycle on: (1) human health and well-being; (2) the global environment, especially the ocean; (3) the economy; and (4) vulnerable populations—the poor, minorities, and the world’s children. On the basis of this examination, the Commission offers science-based recommendations designed to support development of a Global Plastics Treaty, protect human health, and save lives. Report Structure: This Commission report contains seven Sections. Following an Introduction, Section 2 presents a narrative review of the processes involved in plastic production, use, and disposal and notes the hazards to human health and the environment associated with each of these stages. Section 3 describes plastics’ impacts on the ocean and notes the potential for plastic in the ocean to enter the marine food web and result in human exposure. Section 4 details plastics’ impacts on human health. Section 5 presents a first-order estimate of plastics’ health-related economic costs. Section 6 examines the intersection between plastic, social inequity, and environmental injustice. Section 7 presents the Commission’s findings and recommendations. Plastics: Plastics are complex, highly heterogeneous, synthetic chemical materials. Over 98% of plastics are produced from fossil carbon- coal, oil and gas. Plastics are comprised of a carbon-based polymer backbone and thousands of additional chemicals that are incorporated into polymers to convey specific properties such as color, flexibility, stability, water repellence, flame retardation, and ultraviolet resistance. Many of these added chemicals are highly toxic. They include carcinogens, neurotoxicants and endocrine disruptors such as phthalates, bisphenols, per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), brominated flame retardants, and organophosphate flame retardants. They are integral components of plastic and are responsible for many of plastics’ harms to human health and the environment. Global plastic production has increased almost exponentially since World War II, and in this time more than 8,300 megatons (Mt) of plastic have been manufactured. Annual production volume has grown from under 2 Mt in 1950 to 460 Mt in 2019, a 230-fold increase, and is on track to triple by 2060. More than half of all plastic ever made has been produced since 2002. Single-use plastics account for 35–40% of current plastic production and represent the most rapidly growing segment of plastic manufacture. Explosive recent growth in plastics production reflects a deliberate pivot by the integrated multinational fossil-carbon corporations that produce coal, oil and gas and that also manufacture plastics. These corporations are reducing their production of fossil fuels and increasing plastics manufacture. The two principal factors responsible for this pivot are decreasing global demand for carbon-based fuels due to increases in ‘green’ energy, and massive expansion of oil and gas production due to fracking. Plastic manufacture is energy-intensive and contributes significantly to climate change. At present, plastic production is responsible for an estimated 3.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than the contribution of Brazil. This fraction is projected to increase to 4.5% by 2060 if current trends continue unchecked. Plastic Life Cycle: The plastic life cycle has three phases: production, use, and disposal. In production, carbon feedstocks—coal, gas, and oil—are transformed through energy-intensive, catalytic processes into a vast array of products. Plastic use occurs in every aspect of modern life and results in widespread human exposure to the chemicals contained in plastic. Single-use plastics constitute the largest portion of current use, followed by synthetic fibers and construction. Plastic disposal is highly inefficient, with recovery and recycling rates below 10% globally. The result is that an estimated 22 Mt of plastic waste enters the environment each year, much of it single-use plastic and are added to the more than 6 gigatons of plastic waste that have accumulated since 1950. Strategies for disposal of plastic waste include controlled and uncontrolled landfilling, open burning, thermal conversion, and export. Vast quantities of plastic waste are exported each year from high-income to low-income countries, where it accumulates in landfills, pollutes air and water, degrades vital ecosystems, befouls beaches and estuaries, and harms human health—environmental injustice on a global scale. Plastic-laden e-waste is particularly problematic. Environmental Findings: Plastics and plastic-associated chemicals are responsible for widespread pollution. They contaminate aquatic (marine and freshwater), terrestrial, and atmospheric environments globally. The ocean is the ultimate destination for much plastic, and plastics are found throughout the ocean, including coastal regions, the sea surface, the deep sea, and polar sea ice. Many plastics appear to resist breakdown in the ocean and could persist in the global environment for decades. Macro- and micro-plastic particles have been identified in hundreds of marine species in all major taxa, including species consumed by humans. Trophic transfer of microplastic particles and the chemicals within them has been demonstrated. Although microplastic particles themselves (>10 µm) appear not to undergo biomagnification, hydrophobic plastic-associated chemicals bioaccumulate in marine animals and biomagnify in marine food webs. The amounts and fates of smaller microplastic and nanoplastic particles (MNPs <10 µm) in aquatic environments are poorly understood, but the potential for harm is worrying given their mobility in biological systems. Adverse environmental impacts of plastic pollution occur at multiple levels from molecular and biochemical to population and ecosystem. MNP contamination of seafood results in direct, though not well quantified, human exposure to plastics and plastic-associated chemicals. Marine plastic pollution endangers the ocean ecosystems upon which all humanity depends for food, oxygen, livelihood, and well-being. Human Health Findings: Coal miners, oil workers and gas field workers who extract fossil carbon feedstocks for plastic production suffer increased mortality from traumatic injury, coal workers’ pneumoconiosis, silicosis, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer. Plastic production workers are at increased risk of leukemia, lymphoma, hepatic angiosarcoma, brain cancer, breast cancer, mesothelioma, neurotoxic injury, and decreased fertility. Workers producing plastic textiles die of bladder cancer, lung cancer, mesothelioma, and interstitial lung disease at increased rates. Plastic recycling workers have increased rates of cardiovascular disease, toxic metal poisoning, neuropathy, and lung cancer. Residents of “fenceline” communities adjacent to plastic production and waste disposal sites experience increased risks of premature birth, low birth weight, asthma, childhood leukemia, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer. During use and also in disposal, plastics release toxic chemicals including additives and residual monomers into the environment and into people. National biomonitoring surveys in the USA document population-wide exposures to these chemicals. Plastic additives disrupt endocrine function and increase risk for premature births, neurodevelopmental disorders, male reproductive birth defects, infertility, obesity, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and cancers. Chemical-laden MNPs formed through the environmental degradation of plastic waste can enter living organisms, including humans. Emerging, albeit still incomplete evidence indicates that MNPs may cause toxicity due to their physical and toxicological effects as well as by acting as vectors that transport toxic chemicals and bacterial pathogens into tissues and cells. Infants in the womb and young children are two populations at particularly high risk of plastic-related health effects. Because of the exquisite sensitivity of early development to hazardous chemicals and children’s unique patterns of exposure, plastic-associated exposures are linked to increased risks of prematurity, stillbirth, low birth weight, birth defects of the reproductive organs, neurodevelopmental impairment, impaired lung growth, and childhood cancer. Early-life exposures to plastic-associated chemicals also increase the risk of multiple non-communicable diseases later in life. Economic Findings: Plastic’s harms to human health result in significant economic costs. We estimate that in 2015 the health-related costs of plastic production exceeded $250 billion (2015 Int$) globally, and that in the USA alone the health costs of disease and disability caused by the plastic-associated chemicals PBDE, BPA and DEHP exceeded $920 billion (2015 Int$). Plastic production results in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions equivalent to 1.96 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2e) annually. Using the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) social cost of carbon metric, we estimate the annual costs of these GHG emissions to be $341 billion (2015 Int$). These costs, large as they are, almost certainly underestimate the full economic losses resulting from plastics’ negative impacts on human health and the global environment. All of plastics’ economic costs—and also its social costs—are externalized by the petrochemical and plastic manufacturing industry and are borne by citizens, taxpayers, and governments in countries around the world without compensation. Social Justice Findings: The adverse effects of plastics and plastic pollution on human health, the economy and the environment are not evenly distributed. They disproportionately affect poor, disempowered, and marginalized populations such as workers, racial and ethnic minorities, “fenceline” communities, Indigenous groups, women, and children, all of whom had little to do with creating the current plastics crisis and lack the political influence or the resources to address it. Plastics’ harmful impacts across its life cycle are most keenly felt in the Global South, in small island states, and in disenfranchised areas in the Global North. Social and environmental justice (SEJ) principles require reversal of these inequitable burdens to ensure that no group bears a disproportionate share of plastics’ negative impacts and that those who benefit economically from plastic bear their fair share of its currently externalized costs. Conclusions: It is now clear that current patterns of plastic production, use, and disposal are not sustainable and are responsible for significant harms to human health, the environment, and the economy as well as for deep societal injustices. The main driver of these worsening harms is an almost exponential and still accelerating increase in global plastic production. Plastics’ harms are further magnified by low rates of recovery and recycling and by the long persistence of plastic waste in the environment. The thousands of chemicals in plastics—monomers, additives, processing agents, and non-intentionally added substances—include amongst their number known human carcinogens, endocrine disruptors, neurotoxicants, and persistent organic pollutants. These chemicals are responsible for many of plastics’ known harms to human and planetary health. The chemicals leach out of plastics, enter the environment, cause pollution, and result in human exposure and disease. All efforts to reduce plastics’ hazards must address the hazards of plastic-associated chemicals. Recommendations: To protect human and planetary health, especially the health of vulnerable and at-risk populations, and put the world on track to end plastic pollution by 2040, this Commission supports urgent adoption by the world’s nations of a strong and comprehensive Global Plastics Treaty in accord with the mandate set forth in the March 2022 resolution of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA). International measures such as a Global Plastics Treaty are needed to curb plastic production and pollution, because the harms to human health and the environment caused by plastics, plastic-associated chemicals and plastic waste transcend national boundaries, are planetary in their scale, and have disproportionate impacts on the health and well-being of people in the world’s poorest nations. Effective implementation of the Global Plastics Treaty will require that international action be coordinated and complemented by interventions at the national, regional, and local levels. This Commission urges that a cap on global plastic production with targets, timetables, and national contributions be a central provision of the Global Plastics Treaty. We recommend inclusion of the following additional provisions: The Treaty needs to extend beyond microplastics and marine litter to include all of the many thousands of chemicals incorporated into plastics. The Treaty needs to include a provision banning or severely restricting manufacture and use of unnecessary, avoidable, and problematic plastic items, especially single-use items such as manufactured plastic microbeads. The Treaty needs to include requirements on extended producer responsibility (EPR) that make fossil carbon producers, plastic producers, and the manufacturers of plastic products legally and financially responsible for the safety and end-of-life management of all the materials they produce and sell. The Treaty needs to mandate reductions in the chemical complexity of plastic products; health-protective standards for plastics and plastic additives; a requirement for use of sustainable non-toxic materials; full disclosure of all components; and traceability of components. International cooperation will be essential to implementing and enforcing these standards. The Treaty needs to include SEJ remedies at each stage of the plastic life cycle designed to fill gaps in community knowledge and advance both distributional and procedural equity. This Commission encourages inclusion in the Global Plastic Treaty of a provision calling for exploration of listing at least some plastic polymers as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the Stockholm Convention. This Commission encourages a strong interface between the Global Plastics Treaty and the Basel and London Conventions to enhance management of hazardous plastic waste and slow current massive exports of plastic waste into the world’s least-developed countries. This Commission recommends the creation of a Permanent Science Policy Advisory Body to guide the Treaty’s implementation. The main priorities of this Body would be to guide Member States and other stakeholders in evaluating which solutions are most effective in reducing plastic consumption, enhancing plastic waste recovery and recycling, and curbing the generation of plastic waste. This Body could also assess trade-offs among these solutions and evaluate safer alternatives to current plastics. It could monitor the transnational export of plastic waste. It could coordinate robust oceanic-, land-, and air-based MNP monitoring programs. This Commission recommends urgent investment by national governments in research into solutions to the global plastic crisis. This research will need to determine which solutions are most effective and cost-effective in the context of particular countries and assess the risks and benefits of proposed solutions. Oceanographic and environmental research is needed to better measure concentrations and impacts of plastics <10 µm and understand their distribution and fate in the global environment. Biomedical research is needed to elucidate the human health impacts of plastics, especially MNPs. Summary: This Commission finds that plastics are both a boon to humanity and a stealth threat to human and planetary health. Plastics convey enormous benefits, but current linear patterns of plastic production, use, and disposal that pay little attention to sustainable design or safe materials and a near absence of recovery, reuse, and recycling are responsible for grave harms to health, widespread environmental damage, great economic costs, and deep societal injustices. These harms are rapidly worsening. While there remain gaps in knowledge about plastics’ harms and uncertainties about their full magnitude, the evidence available today demonstrates unequivocally that these impacts are great and that they will increase in severity in the absence of urgent and effective intervention at global scale. Manufacture and use of essential plastics may continue. However, reckless increases in plastic production, and especially increases in the manufacture of an ever-increasing array of unnecessary single-use plastic products, need to be curbed. Global intervention against the plastic crisis is needed now because the costs of failure to act will be immense.
Infectious and parasitic diseases, Public aspects of medicine
The influence of chain length on the sorption of C4-C10 perfluorocarboxylic acids during transport in a sand
Ying Lyu, Baohua Wang, Mark L. Brusseau
The impact of chain length on the retention and transport of perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) in a quartz sand was investigated. Short-chain (C4–C7: PFBA, PFPeA, PFHxA, PFHpA) and long-chain (C8–C10: PFOA, PFNA, PFDA) PFCAs were selected as a representative homologous series. Miscible-displacement transport experiments were conducted under saturated conditions to characterize the magnitudes of sorption mediating retention and transport. Quantitative-structure/property-relationship (QSPR) analysis was applied to characterize the influence of molecular size on sorption. The transport of the long-chain PFCAs exhibited greater retardation than the short-chain PFCAs. The log of the equilibrium sorption coefficient (Kd) exhibited a biphasic relationship with carbon number and molar volume, with the magnitude of measured sorption for the short-chain PFCAs significantly greater than would be predicted using the QSPR regression developed for the long-chain PFCAs. This is consistent with batch-measured data reported in the literature, and likely reflects the relative influence of different sorption mechanisms for the short-chain vs long-chain PFCAs.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
The Effect of Awareness of Halal Cosmetics’ Health on Consumers\' Willingness for Purchase
Malihe Siyavooshi, Tayebeh Abbasnejad, Zahra Mirsoleimani
Background: International statistics have shown Muslims’ increased awareness of halal cosmetics has increased the volume of halal cosmetics business. According to Iran's laws, imported or domestically manufactured cosmetics are evaluated in terms of being halal, but it seems that consumers are unaware of this issue. The purpose of this research is to measure consumers’ awareness of halal cosmetics and its effect on willingness to buy these cosmetics.
Methods: This study was conducted on 123 cosmetic consumers through pretest-posttest method. First, consumers' awareness and willingness to buy halal cosmetics and the criteria affecting cosmetics purchasing were measured. Then, a brochure containing information about halal cosmetics and the requirements of Iran's law regarding the import and production of cosmetics was provided to the participants. After a week, the same variables were measured again. The collected data were analyzed using IBM SPSS 26 software.
Results: On a 5-point Likert scale (1 = very little to 5 = very much), the average consumers' awareness of halal cosmetics and willingness to buy them were 3 and 3.04, respectively (P-value < 0.05). After the distribution of brochures, the average awareness of halal cosmetics and willingness to buy these products increased to 4.1 and 4.12. Moreover, among the criteria (price, brand, having a halal certificate, country of origin, customs clearance, and buying from reputable stores) for deciding to buy cosmetics in the pretest stage, customs clearance and having a halal certificate, respectively obtained importance level of 4 and 5, but in the posttest stage, they obtained the level of 1 and 2.
Conclusion: Informing consumers about the health of halal cosmetics and the country’s laws regarding the import and production of these products can increase the buyers' sensitivity towards the cosmetics’ halal nature and willingness to buy the halal ones. This can reduce the chance of buying smuggled products and those produced outside official controls.
Corresponding Author: Malihe Siyavooshi
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Communities. Classes. Races, Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Burning questions: Current practices and critical gaps in evaluating removal of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) during pyrolysis treatments of biosolids
Joshua S. Wallace, Dulan Edirisinghe, Saba Seyedi
et al.
Concerns surrounding potential health and environmental impacts of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are growing at tremendous rates because adverse health impacts are expected with trace-level exposures. Extreme measures are required to mitigate potential PFAS contamination and minimize exposures. Extensive PFAS use results in the release of diverse PFAS species from domestic, industrial, and municipal effluents to wastewater, which partition to biosolids throughout secondary treatment. Biosolids generated during municipal wastewater treatment are a major environmental source of PFAS due to prevailing disposal practices as fertilizers. Pyrolysis is emerging as a viable, scalable technology for PFAS removal from biosolids while retaining nutrients and generating renewable, raw materials for energy generation. Despite early successes of pyrolysis in PFAS removal, significant unknowns remain about PFAS and transformation product fates in pyrolysis products and emissions. Applicable PFAS sampling methods, analytical workflows, and removal assessments are currently limited to a subset of high-interest analytes and matrices. Further, analysis of exhaust gases, particulate matter, fly ashes, and other pyrolysis end-products remain largely unreported or limited due to cost and sampling limitations. This paper identifies critical knowledge gaps on the pyrolysis of biosolids that must be addressed to assess the effectiveness of PFAS removal during pyrolysis treatment.
Hazardous substances and their disposal
Weighing votes in human-machine collaboration for hazard recognition: Inferring hazard perceptual threshold and decision confidence from electroencephalogram wavelets
Xiaoshan Zhou, Pin-Chao Liao
Purpose: Human-machine collaboration is a promising strategy to improve hazard inspection. However, research on the effective integration of opinions from humans with machines for optimal group decision making is lacking. Hence, considering the benefits of a brain-computer interface (BCI) to enable intuitive commutation, this study proposes a novel method to predict human hazard response choices and decision confidence from brain activities for a superior confidence-weighted voting strategy. Methodology: First, we developed a Bayesian inference-based algorithm to ascertain the decision threshold above which a hazard is reported from human brain signals. This method was tested empirically with electroencephalogram (EEG) data collected in a laboratory setting and cross-validated using behavioral indices of the signal detection theory. Subsequently, based on numerical simulations, the decision criteria for low-, medium-, and high-confidence level differentiations characterized by parietal alpha-band EEG power were determined. Findings : The investigated hazard recognition task was described as a process of probabilistic inference involving a decision uncertainty evaluation. The results demonstrated the feasibility of EEG measurements in observing human internal representations of hazard discrimination. Moreover, the optimal criteria to differentiate between low-, medium-, and high-confidence levels were obtained by benchmarking against an optimal Bayesian observer. Originality: This research demonstrates the potential of a BCI as an effective channel for telecommunication, laying the foundation for the design of future hazard detection techniques in the collaborative human-machine systems research field.