Hasil untuk "Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand"

Matthias Mertens, Adam Kuzee, Brittany S. Harris et al.

We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based. We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable. Based on more than 17,000 evaluations by workers from these jobs, we find little evidence of crashing waves (in contrast to recent work by METR), but substantial evidence that rising tides are the primary form of AI automation. AI performance is high and improving rapidly across a wide range of tasks. We estimate that, in 2024-Q2, AI models successfully complete tasks that take humans approximately 3-4 hours with about a 50% success rate, increasing to about 65% by 2025-Q3. If recent trends in AI capability growth persist, this pace of AI improvement implies that LLMs will be able to complete most text-related tasks with success rates of, on average, 80%-95% by 2029 at a minimally sufficient quality level. Achieving near-perfect success rates at this quality level or comparable success rates at superior quality would require several additional years. These AI capability improvements would impact the economy and labor market as organizations adopt AI, which could have a substantially longer timeline.

Erik Hernæs, Øystein Hernæs, Knut Røed

Vi argumenterer for at en ordning med «slitertillegg» i pensjonen til utvalgte yrkesgrupper kan ivareta både hensynet til effektivitet og hensynet til fordeling på en god måte. Statistikkgrunnlaget finnes, og ordningen med avtalefestet pensjon (AFP) er moden for reform.

Joerg Drechsler, Johannes Ludsteck

Abstract Censoring from above is a common problem with wage information as the reported wages are typically top-coded for confidentiality reasons. In administrative databases the information is often collected only up to a pre-specified threshold, for example, the contribution limit for the social security system. While directly accounting for the censoring is possible for some analyses, the most flexible solution is to impute the values above the censoring point. This strategy offers the advantage that future users of the data no longer need to implement possibly complicated censoring estimators. However, standard cross-sectional imputation routines relying on the classical Tobit model to impute right-censored data have a high risk of introducing bias from uncongeniality (Meng 1994) as future analyses to be conducted on the imputed data are unknown to the imputer. Furthermore, as we show using a large-scale administrative database from the German Federal Employment agency, the classical Tobit model offers a poor fit to the data. In this paper, we present some strategies to address these problems. Specifically, we use leave-one-out means as suggested by Card et al. (2013) to avoid biases from uncongeniality and rely on quantile regression or left censoring to improve the model fit. We illustrate the benefits of these modeling adjustments using the German Structure of Earnings Survey, which is (almost) unaffected by censoring and can thus serve as a testbed to evaluate the imputation procedures.

Donald Houston, Colin Lindsay

Abstract Time-related underemployment (wanting to work more hours) has become an entrenched feature of a number of mature economies since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, recent short-run post-COVID labour shortages notwithstanding. Employment and unemployment rates are thus increasingly inadequate measures of labour utilisation and underutilisation. This paper develops novel ‘Full-Time Equivalent’ (FTE) employment and unemployment rates based on hours worked and hours wanted calibrated to a 37.5-h full-time week for the United Kingdom. FTE rates reveal greater labour market slack than evident in conventional measures, as well as lower utilisation and/or greater underutilisation among women, young people, low-skilled workers and in geographically and economically peripheral regions. The FTE employment rate shows statistically significant correlations with both earnings and labour demand across UK local labour markets, whereas the conventional employment rate fails to detect this relationship. The paper argues that the use of FTE metrics by policy makers would point towards, firstly, more demand-side labour market policies in weaker local labour markets rather than relying heavily on coercive supply-side labour market activation and, secondly, less hawkish monetary policy required to control inflation, which causes unnecessary harm to economically weaker regions.

Fanze Kong, Jiayi Sun, Shuangquan Xie

One of the most significant findings in the study of spatial Solow-Swan models is the emergence of economic agglomeration, in which economic activities concentrate in specific regions. Such agglomeration provides a fundamental mechanism driving the spatial patterns of urbanization, labor migration, productivity growth, and resource allocation. In this paper, we consider the one-dimensional spatial Solow-Swan model with capital-induced labor migration, which captures the dynamic interaction between labor and capital through migration and accumulation. Focusing on the regime of sufficiently small capital diffusivity, we first construct an interior spike (spiky economic agglomeration) quasi-equilibrium. Next, we perform the linear stability of the corresponding spike equilibrium by using a hybrid asymptotic and numerical method. We show that a single interior spike remains stable for small reaction-time constants but undergoes a Hopf bifurcation when the constant is sufficiently large, leading to oscillations in spike height (economic fluctuation). Finally, we derive a differential-algebraic system to capture the slow drift motion of quasi-equilibrium (core-periphery shift). Numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical studies and reveal some intriguing yet unexplained dynamics.

Lulin Yang, Jiaxin Pei, Lingfei Wu

The recognition of individual contributions is central to the scientific reward system, yet coauthored papers often obscure who did what. Traditional proxies like author order assume a simplistic decline in contribution, while emerging practices such as self-reported roles are biased and limited in scope. We introduce a large-scale, behavior-based approach to identifying individual contributions in scientific papers. Using author-specific LaTeX macros as writing signatures, we analyze over 730,000 arXiv papers (1991-2023), covering over half a million scientists. Validated against self-reports, author order, disciplinary norms, and Overleaf records, our method reliably infers author-level writing activity. Section-level traces reveal a hidden division of labor: first authors focus on technical sections (e.g., Methods, Results), while last authors primarily contribute to conceptual sections (e.g., Introduction, Discussion). Our findings offer empirical evidence of labor specialization at scale and new tools to improve credit allocation in collaborative research.

Jiaxin Pei, Lulin Yang, Lingfei Wu

Recognition of individual contributions is fundamental to the scientific reward system, yet coauthored papers obscure who did what. Traditional proxies-author order and career stage-reinforce biases, while contribution statements remain self-reported and limited to select journals. We construct the first large-scale dataset on writing contributions by analyzing author-specific macros in LaTeX files from 1.6 million papers (1991-2023) by 2 million scientists. Validation against self-reported statements (precision = 0.87), author order patterns, field-specific norms, and Overleaf records (Spearman's rho = 0.6, p < 0.05) confirms the reliability of the created data. Using explicit section information, we reveal a hidden division of labor within scientific teams: some authors primarily contribute to conceptual sections (e.g., Introduction and Discussion), while others focus on technical sections (e.g., Methods and Experiments). These findings provide the first large-scale evidence of implicit labor division in scientific teams, challenging conventional authorship practices and informing institutional policies on credit allocation.

Alice Qian Zhang, Jina Suh, Mary L. Gray et al.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly embedded in critical societal functions, the need for robust red teaming methodologies continues to grow. In this forum piece, we examine emerging approaches to automating AI red teaming, with a particular focus on how the application of automated methods affects human-driven efforts. We discuss the role of labor in automated red teaming processes, the benefits and limitations of automation, and its broader implications for AI safety and labor practices. Drawing on existing frameworks and case studies, we argue for a balanced approach that combines human expertise with automated tools to strengthen AI risk assessment. Finally, we highlight key challenges in scaling automated red teaming, including considerations around worker proficiency, agency, and context-awareness.

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DECRETAZO. El DNU DE JAVIER MILEI (Documental de Carlos Pronzato)    El 20 de diciembre de 2023, el presidente de Argentina, Javier Milei, diez días después de su toma de posesión, anunció en la televisión nacional la firma de un Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia (DNU) que modificará o derogará 366 leyes que regulan una amplia variedad de actividades económicas en el país, estableciendo una profunda desregulación de la economía, destruyendo las bases jurídicas del país, en los aspectos laboral, de salud, de educación y de cultura. Poco después de que se anunciara su "decreto", se enfrentó a los primeros cacerolazos en las calles del país. Entre el 22 y 28 de diciembre realizamos este documental en Buenos Aires. *** Carlos Pronzato é um cineasta, escritor, poeta, teatrólogo e ativista social, nascido na Argentina e residente no Brasil. Artista multifacético, suas obras audiovisuais, teatrais e literárias destacam-se pelo compromisso com a cultura, a memória e as lutas populares. 

Suguru Otani

I examine changes in matching efficiency and elasticities in Japan's labor market via Hello Work for unemployed workers from January 1972 to April 2024 using a nonparametric identification approach by y Lange and Papageorgiou (2020). I find a declining trend in matching efficiency, consistent with decreasing job and worker finding rates. The implied match elasticity with respect to unemployment is 0.5-0.9, whereas the implied match elasticity with respect to vacancies varies between -0.4 and 0.4. Decomposing aggregate data into full-time and part-time ones, I find that the sharp decline of matching efficiency after 2015 shown in the aggregate trend is driven by the decline of both full-time and part-time ones. Second, I extend the mismatch index proposed by Sahin et al (2014) to the nonparametric version and develop the computational methodology. I find that the mismatch across occupations is more severe than across prefectures and the original Cobb-Douglas mismatch index is underestimated.

Jonas Emanuel Pinto Magalhães

Essa tese tem como tema a noção de competências socioemocionais e como objeto de estudo a sua incorporação nas políticas curriculares da educação nacional. De modo mais específico, busca identificar e analisar os fundamentos econômicos, políticos, ideológicos e epistemológicos que orientam as propostas de formação de competências socioemocionais na atualidade. Além disso, e tendo como referencial teórico-metodológico o materialismo histórico e dialético, analisamos, no contexto da crise do capital e do neoliberalismo, a construção e implementação dessa nova agenda educacional por organizações como a Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) e o Instituto Ayrton Senna (IAS). A progressiva projeção alcançada pela noção de competências socioemocionais no Brasil, combinadas com a apropriação apressada e, via de regra, pouco crítica desse novo slogan pedagógico justifica a investigação de suas bases epistemológicas, políticas e sócio-históricas, bem como suas implicações ideológicas e pedagógicas.

Morgan R. Frank

Exciting advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked concern for jobs, education, productivity, and the future of work. As with past technologies, generative AI may not lead to mass unemployment. But, unlike past technologies, generative AI is creative, cognitive, and potentially ubiquitous which makes the usual assumptions of automation predictions ill-suited for today. Existing projections suggest that generative AI will impact workers in occupations that were previously considered immune to automation. As AI's full set of capabilities and applications emerge, policy makers should promote workers' career adaptability. This goal requires improved data on job separations and unemployment by locality and job titles in order to identify early-indicators for the workers facing labor disruption. Further, prudent policy should incentivize education programs to accommodate learning with AI as a tool while preparing students for the demands of the future of work.

Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin et al.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

Alisa S. Mahdich

This study is devoted to the analysis of the geography of migration of the population of Ukraine over the last decade on the basis of the Global Index of Migrant Integration Policy (MIPEX) and the identification of factors that attract the population of Ukraine to migrate to other countries. According to European Commission statistics since 2014, the number of Ukrainian labor migrants moving to the European Union (EU) has increased significantly. In 2019, Ukrainian citizens received 660,000 residence permits for paid activities in member states – the largest external labor force in the EU. Thus, the dependence of Member States’ economies on Ukrainian workers has reached significant levels, as evidenced by the labor shortages observed during the COVID-19 crisis, which forced the EU to close its borders. Emigration reduces the supply of labor and accelerates the growth of wages of workers who remain in the country; one of the problems of concern is the loss of skills – most of Ukrainians work abroad without qualifications or do very simple work. The main benefit for the Ukrainian economy is related to the remittances, equivalent to 8% of GDP. Remittances significantly improve the well-being of migrant families and stimulate domestic demand, increasing the country’s GDP. Stable and significant inflow of remittances contributes to a more stable balance of payments, compensation for the constant deficit of trade and investment income. At the same time, there is a risk that migrants will remain permanently resident abroad, which will mean a decrease in the working population in Ukraine. In addition, the impact of emigration and remittances on Ukraine’s public finances is ambiguous: remittances increase VAT, excise and customs revenues, while reducing labor supply reduces revenues from labor taxes and social security contributions in Ukraine. Therefore, it is important to understand what factors currently attract the population of Ukraine to other countries. The Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) is an index that measures the quality of migrant integration policy in 52 countries. The index indicators were developed for a multidimensional view of migrants’ opportunities to participate in public life. The index is a tool for evaluating and comparing the actions of governments to promote the integration of migrants in all analyzed countries. The index helps to understand and analyze the factors that contribute to the integration of migrants. The index covers the following areas of integration: labor market mobility; family reunification; access to services in the field of education; participation in political life; obtaining permanent residence; obtaining citizenship; antidiscrimination; access to health services.

Jesus Jorge Pérez García

Este ensayo presenta algunos análisis, resultado de experiencias de investigación doctoral realizadas de 2010-2015 en Cuba, integradas con experiencias de investigaciones recientes (2020-21 en curso) en la Amazonía Tocantina Paraense, Brasil. Con base materialista histórico-dialéctica, utiliza procedimientos de relevamiento de literatura, observaciones libres y notas de campo. El intercambio de estas investigaciones construyen demostraciones de que las comunidades rurales están movilizadas por necesidades sentidas comunes, permeadas por la cultura, que las hacen seguir luchando, resistiendo y viviendo. Palabras-clave: Intercambio de investigaciones; Comunidades rurales; Necesidades sentidas

Regis Eduardo Coelho Argüelles

Integrando a seção Memória e Documentos da revista Trabalho Necessário, o objetivo desse texto é analisar criticamente a lei do salário-educação, proposta em 1946 e instituída a partir de 1964. Pretende-se, a partir da discussão do contexto histórico de proposição e execução da lei, colocar em perspectiva os limites e as possibilidades da garantida do direito à educação no capitalismo. O texto está dividido em 3 seções. Na primeira, empreenderemos um esforço de compreensão teórica do Estado e de suas políticas públicas, considerando as relações políticas determinadas em uma sociedade de classes. Esse debate servirá de suporte à apreensão histórica do salário-educação na seção a seguir, possibilitando a discussão histórica do empresariamento da educação. Por último, reproduziremos, para fins de ilustração, o texto da lei do salário-educação e demais regulamentações ligadas e ela.

Ivan Fernandez-Val, Wayne Yuan Gao, Yuan Liao et al.

We introduce a dynamic distribution regression panel data model with heterogeneous coefficients across units. The objects of primary interest are functionals of these coefficients, including predicted one-step-ahead and stationary cross-sectional distributions of the outcome variable. Coefficients and their functionals are estimated via fixed effect methods. We investigate how these functionals vary in response to counterfactual changes in initial conditions or covariate values. We also identify a uniformity problem related to the robustness of inference to the unknown degree of coefficient heterogeneity, and propose a cross-sectional bootstrap method for uniformly valid inference on function-valued objects. We showcase the utility of our approach through an empirical application to individual income dynamics. Employing the annual Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, we establish the presence of substantial coefficient heterogeneity. We then highlight some important empirical questions that our methodology can address. First, we quantify the impact of a negative labor income shock on the distribution of future labor income.

Julia Hatamyar

This paper studies the effects of legislation mandating the provision of workplace breastfeeding amenities on the labor force participation of women in the United States. Using both the American Community Survey and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, in a staggered difference-in-differences framework, I find evidence that workplace breastfeeding legislation significantly increases the likelihood of female labor force participation (FLFP) across both datasets and multiple specifications, by at least 1.5 percentage points. The timing and magnitude of the post-law increases in FLFP differ across the two datasets. I bolster the analyses using the CDC's Infant Feeding Practices Survey and the Childhood and Adoption Supplement to the PSID, which further suggest an influence of the laws on breastfeeding women. Heterogeneity analysis indicates the presence of substantial treatment effect heterogeneity across subgroups, but the findings are specific to the separate datasets. Across both datasets, the legislation appears to be more effective in states where average pre-law FLFP was comparatively low. I also find evidence of a negative spillover effect, whereby women without children and women with older children may have reduced their LFP in response to the legislation.

David Roodman

Duflo (2001) exploits a 1970s schooling expansion in Indonesia to estimate impacts on schooling and labor outcomes, as well as the returns to schooling. I correct data errors, adjust for potential sources of bias, follow up later in life, and check sensitivity to two specification choices that are not explained in the original text and that are applied to some regressions and not others. Headline estimates from the original, 1995 follow-up are generally not robust to the revisions. Returns to schooling are weakly identified. But certain "fingerprints" from Duflo (2001) specification checks--impacts appearing only in the birth cohorts or at the grade levels where expected--recognizably persist. E.g., impact estimates from kink-based specifications that focus on timing by birth cohort are consistently positive, if not always at conventional significance lev-els. The best explanation, though weakened, is causation from the schooling expansion to individual schooling attainment to wages.

Lia Tiriba, Maria Cristina Paulo Rodrigues, José Luiz Cordeiro Antunes

Publicado pela primeira vez no ano de 1970, o livro Pedagogia do Oprimido[1] é um convite para que as pessoas do povo, ou seja, para que mulheres e homens trabalhadores e seus filhos rompam com a cultura do silêncio. Freire indica a educação bancária como elemento de manipulação, de invasão cultural e, portanto, instrumento da opressão de uma classe sobre outra. Considerando a existência de relação dialógica entre opressor e oprimido, para os primeiros, o “que vale é ter mais e cada vez mais”; assim “ser, para eles, é ter, ter como classe que tem” - questão esta que implica para os oprimidos ter menos ou nada ter. (FREIRE, 1974, p. 49). Em Educação como prática da liberdade[2], publicado em 1967, advertia que “não há educação fora da sociedade humana e não há homem no vazio” (FREIRE, 1970, p. 45); daí, ser a busca de um homem-sujeito que é parte integrante de uma sociedade igualitária, que também é sujeito. É essa sociedade que queremos construir!   [1] FREIRE, Paulo. Pedagogia do oprimido. São Paulo: Paz e Terra, 1974. [2] FREIRE, Paulo. Educação como prática da liberdade. São Paulo: Paz e Terra, 1967.