Hasil untuk "Economic growth, development, planning"

N. Ayati, P. Saiyarsarai, S. Nikfar

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was characterized as a global pandemic by the WHO on March 11th, 2020. This pandemic had major effects on the health market, the pharmaceutical sector, and was associated with considerable impacts; which may appear in short and long-term time-horizon and need identification and appropriate planning to reduce their socio-economic burden. Current short communication study assessed pharmaceutical market crisis during the COVID-19 era; discussing short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on the pharmaceutical sector. Short-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic includes demand changes, regulation revisions, research and development process changes and the shift towards tele-communication and tele-medicine. In addition, industry growth slow-down, approval delays, moving towards self-sufficiency in pharm-production supply chain and trend changes in consumption of health-market products along with ethical dilemma could be anticipated as long-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on pharmaceutical sector in both global and local levels. The pandemic of COVID-19 poses considerable crisis on the health markets, including the pharmaceutical sector; and identification of these effects, may guide policy-makers towards more evidence-informed planning to overcome accompanying challenges. Graphical abstract . .

Jim Maar, Denis Paperno, Callum Stuart McDougall et al.

Prior work suggests that language models, while trained on next token prediction, show implicit planning behavior: they may select the next token in preparation to a predicted future token, such as a likely rhyming word, as supported by a prior qualitative study of Claude 3.5 Haiku using a cross-layer transcoder. We propose much simpler techniques for assessing implicit planning in language models. With case studies on rhyme poetry generation and question answering, we demonstrate that our methodology easily scales to many models. Across models, we find that the generated rhyme (e.g. "-ight") or answer to a question ("whale") can be manipulated by steering at the end of the preceding line with a vector, affecting the generation of intermediate tokens leading up to the rhyme or answer word. We show that implicit planning is a universal mechanism, present in smaller models than previously thought, starting from 1B parameters. Our methodology offers a widely applicable direct way to study implicit planning abilities of LLMs. More broadly, understanding planning abilities of language models can inform decisions in AI safety and control.

Lisa Capretti, Lorenzo Tonni

The empirical literature on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has produced highly heterogeneous and often conflicting results. This paper investigates the sources of this heterogeneity using a meta-analytic approach that systematically combines and analyzes evidence from relevant studies published between 1994 and 2025. We find an economically small but statistically significant negative average effect of income inequality on subsequent economic growth, together with strong evidence of substantial heterogeneity and selective publication based on statistical significance, but no evidence of systematic directional bias. To explain the observed heterogeneity, we estimate a meta-regression. The results indicate that both real-world characteristics and research design choices shape reported effect sizes. In particular, inequality measured net of taxes and transfers is associated with more negative growth effects, and the adverse impact of inequality is weaker - or even reversed - in high-income economies relative to developing countries. Methodological choices also matter: cross-sectional studies tend to report more negative estimates, while fixed-effects, instrumental-variable, and GMM estimators are associated with more positive estimates in panel settings.

Gang Xie, Yatong Qian, Shouyang Wang

Abstract After more than ten years of exponential development, the growth rate of cruise tourist in China is slowing down. There is increasingly financial risk of investing in homeports, cruise ships and promotional activities. Therefore, forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand is a prerequisite for investment decision-making and planning. In order to enhance forecasting performance, a least squares support vector regression model with gravitational search algorithm (LSSVR-GSA) is proposed for forecasting cruise tourism demand with big data, which are search query data (SQD) from Baidu and economic indexes. In the proposed model, hyper-parameters of the LSSVR model are optimized with GSA. By comparing these models with various settings, we find that LSSVR-GSA with selected mobile keywords and economic indexes can achieve the highest forecasting performance. The results indicate the proposed framework of the methodology is effective and big data can be helpful predictors for forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand.

Syafii Syafii, Krismadinata Krismadinata, Fahmi Fahmi et al.

This study explores the integration of electric vehicles with photovoltaic systems in a building-level energy management framework, utilizing an Internet of Things-based system for real-time monitoring and optimization. The proposed system is implemented using a Raspberry Pi as the primary controller, interfacing with various sensors to track voltage, current, power, and energy consumption. A web-based platform is developed to enable seamless remote monitoring and control, ensuring efficient switching between solar power and the utility grid. The battery management system, incorporated within the framework, enhances operational reliability by optimizing charging and discharging cycles. Experimental validation demonstrates that the system effectively maintains voltage stability during source transitions while maximizing the utilization of solar energy. A case study in Indonesia further confirms the feasibility of this approach in promoting energy efficiency and sustainable charging infrastructure, contributing to broader clean energy adoption and reduced dependency on fossil fuels.

Kallol Saha, Amber Li, Angela Rodriguez-Izquierdo et al.

Long-horizon planning for robot manipulation is a challenging problem that requires reasoning about the effects of a sequence of actions on a physical 3D scene. While traditional task planning methods are shown to be effective for long-horizon manipulation, they require discretizing the continuous state and action space into symbolic descriptions of objects, object relationships, and actions. Instead, we propose a hybrid learning-and-planning approach that leverages learned models as domain-specific priors to guide search in high-dimensional continuous action spaces. We introduce SPOT: Search over Point cloud Object Transformations, which plans by searching for a sequence of transformations from an initial scene point cloud to a goal-satisfying point cloud. SPOT samples candidate actions from learned suggesters that operate on partially observed point clouds, eliminating the need to discretize actions or object relationships. We evaluate SPOT on multi-object rearrangement tasks, reporting task planning success and task execution success in both simulation and real-world environments. Our experiments show that SPOT generates successful plans and outperforms a policy-learning approach. We also perform ablations that highlight the importance of search-based planning.

Cristina Tanasescu, Amelia Bucur, Camelia Oprean-Stan

One of the themes that have been approached more and more within the specialised literature is being represented by economic cycles. The analysis of these is very useful in the long term predictions, in finding solutions for the economic raise and for detecting the economic crisis. At the same time, it is underlined in a lot of scientific and research papers, the importance of the sustainable development in the present and future society. In this paper we intend to bring contributions to the study of the cycles of a sustainable economy and we will analyse it having in mind the purpose of creating the sustainable economy. We will demonstrate the fact that curves that represent graphically all these, are not simple logistics anymore, bi-logistics or multilogistics curves, but curves in plan that are obtained by composing logistics functions with the function of the sustainable development or with the function that shapes the economic component of it mathematically. We will present an interpretation of mathematic models within the frame of the sustainable development.

Feng Gu, Kaiyi Zhu, Qingyong Zhu

China’s Grand Canal was the world’s most extensive civil engineering project before the Industrial Revolution. This interview explores how the process of applying for and achieving World Heritage status has led to the improvement of the environment surrounding the Grand Canal and encouraged collaboration among canal cities spanning eight provincial administrations. It highlights the role of water heritage as a catalyst for improving the protection of historic landscapes and waterscapes as well as the Grand Canal’s cultural heritage. It also addresses how these efforts have supported the integrated development of canal cities. The Grand Canal remains a vital link that promotes balanced cultural, ecological and economic development, contributing to the sustainability of various canal cities across northern and southern China.

Fritz Brugger, Joschka J. Proksik

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) deprive low-income countries of essential revenues while donors’ willingness to fund aid budgets dwindles. IFFs related to foreign direct investment and trade include transfer mispricing, trade mispricing and profit shifting. Policy options to curb IFFs range from short-term fixes to mid-term measures that adjust legal instruments and improve coordination between countries, to more fundamental structural reforms that require a longer time horizon. Which policies are effective and should be pursued is a highly contested point, slowing down the progress of reform. This is unsurprising as reducing IFFs involves a distributional conflict: more for those deprived of revenues now means less for those who currently benefit. We conduct a Q-methodology study among IFF policy experts. We use Q-methodology to reveal participants’ policy preferences and tease out lines of contestation and areas of agreement to identify the policy space available in which to advance reform. We find tensions existing amid preferences for short-term fixes and for more comprehensive structural reforms; tensions regarding the question of extending legal liability to those facilitating and assisting in the creation of IFFs; and tensions over whether and to what extent host countries should be empowered to curb IFFs using their legislative sovereignty. Policy measures to increase targeted transparency that is directly actionable to tax administrations in host countries are the most likely to garner approval from all stakeholders.

Sammy Kemboi Chepkilot

In Kenya, interest payments on external debt have been increasing from 2010 to 2015, while GDP growth experienced a slight decline over the same period. Policymakers are concerned that the rapid increase in external debt in developing countries such as Kenya has the potential to erode the country's sovereign rating, particularly if it is not supported by proportionate growth in the size of the economy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of interest payments on external debt on economic growth in Kenya. The study utilized secondary data for 25 years, from 1991 to 2015, for GDP growth and interest payments on external debt. The results from the analysis of variance statistics indicate that the model was statistically significant. This implies that interest payments on external debt are good predictors of GDP growth. Regression coefficient results show that GDP growth and the logarithm of interest payments on external debt are negatively and significantly related. The study recommends that future government plans should ensure that external borrowings are taken at rates not higher than the interest rate payments.

Lena Simet

Ante la puesta en marcha de la “Taxonomía europea de inversiones sostenibles” en la Unión Europea, en este artículo se analiza en qué medida las entidades del sector bancario informan a inversores sobre la economía circular para contribuir a los objetivos de sostenibilidad. A tal fin se analizan las memorias de sostenibilidad de una muestra de bancos españoles y se estudia el uso de instrumentos como el renting para modelos circulares a través de una entidad financiera como caso de estudio.

Weiping Shen, Yong Wang, Weijie Luo

Given the constraints of energy, environment, and climate change in the process of economic development, transitioning to a low-carbon economy by such means as the construction of low-carbon cities is a feasible approach to a sustainable development pattern that balances energy conservation, environmental protection, and economic growth. Utilizing the data of listed companies in China A-shares market over the period 2007–2016, we treat China’s low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCPP) as a quasi-natural experiment and adopt a difference-in-differences approach to explore the effect of LCCPP on the total factor productivity (TFP) of firms. Firm TFP is found to be negatively associated with the implementation of LCCPP. Our mechanism analysis reveals that the LCCPP stimulates innovation by firms in China, consistent with the weak Porter hypothesis. Moreover, the negative relationship between the LCCPP and TFP holds more strongly in larger firms or those located in the eastern region.

Ivar Ekeland, Alfred Galichon, Marc Henry

A general framework is given to analyze the falsifiability of economic models based on a sample of their observable components. It is shown that, when the restrictions implied by the economic theory are insufficient to identify the unknown quantities of the structure, the duality of optimal transportation with zero-one cost function delivers interpretable and operational formulations of the hypothesis of specification correctness from which tests can be constructed to falsify the model.

Stepan A. Ushanov, Sayar Akhmad Reshad

Article is dedicated to the trade and economic links of USA and China. The authors tried to find out key features and characteristics of these cooperation. At the same time the authors tried to analyze the logic and the reasons of the trade war that has been escalated by USA against China. It needs to underline that the unfair trade practice of China foreign trade and transfer of technologies led to the American Administration protectionism policy.

Sunandita Patra, James Mason, Amit Kumar et al.

We present new planning and learning algorithms for RAE, the Refinement Acting Engine. RAE uses hierarchical operational models to perform tasks in dynamically changing environments. Our planning procedure, UPOM, does a UCT-like search in the space of operational models in order to find a near-optimal method to use for the task and context at hand. Our learning strategies acquire, from online acting experiences and/or simulated planning results, a mapping from decision contexts to method instances as well as a heuristic function to guide UPOM. Our experimental results show that UPOM and our learning strategies significantly improve RAE's performance in four test domains using two different metrics: efficiency and success ratio.

Shushman Choudhury, Nate Gruver, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Adaptive Informative Path Planning (AIPP) problems model an agent tasked with obtaining information subject to resource constraints in unknown, partially observable environments. Existing work on AIPP has focused on representing observations about the world as a result of agent movement. We formulate the more general setting where the agent may choose between different sensors at the cost of some energy, in addition to traversing the environment to gather information. We call this problem AIPPMS (MS for Multimodal Sensing). AIPPMS requires reasoning jointly about the effects of sensing and movement in terms of both energy expended and information gained. We frame AIPPMS as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and solve it with online planning. Our approach is based on the Partially Observable Monte Carlo Planning framework with modifications to ensure constraint feasibility and a heuristic rollout policy tailored for AIPPMS. We evaluate our method on two domains: a simulated search-and-rescue scenario and a challenging extension to the classic RockSample problem. We find that our approach outperforms a classic AIPP algorithm that is modified for AIPPMS, as well as online planning using a random rollout policy.

Haoran Song, Wenchao Ding, Yuxuan Chen et al.

It is critical to predict the motion of surrounding vehicles for self-driving planning, especially in a socially compliant and flexible way. However, future prediction is challenging due to the interaction and uncertainty in driving behaviors. We propose planning-informed trajectory prediction (PiP) to tackle the prediction problem in the multi-agent setting. Our approach is differentiated from the traditional manner of prediction, which is only based on historical information and decoupled with planning. By informing the prediction process with the planning of ego vehicle, our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of multi-agent forecasting on highway datasets. Moreover, our approach enables a novel pipeline which couples the prediction and planning, by conditioning PiP on multiple candidate trajectories of the ego vehicle, which is highly beneficial for autonomous driving in interactive scenarios.

Niklas Potrafke, Fabian Ruthardt, Kaspar Wüthrich

We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. The protectionist government increased tariffs. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. The new tariff laws increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy by increasing government expenditure.

Dmytro Bielov, Myroslava Hromovchuk

The scientific publication is devoted to highlighting the peculiarities of the legal nature of the constitution. The authors consider the structure and content of the constitution of the state in the context of its functions. The specificity of the content of the newest constitutions in the history of world constitutionalism is considered. The correlation between the constitution and the state policy is established. Modern approaches to understanding the nature of the constitution are considered. The legal nature of the Constitution of Ukraine is determined. Proven, the main and still unresolved issue is the ambiguity of what is proposed to adopt: a new Constitution, a new version of the current Constitution, amendments and additions to the current Constitution. Although paradoxical, in Presidential speeches, these terms are used repeatedly as synonyms. However, legally they are completely different concepts. This terminological confusion carries a great danger of loss of landmarks and prevents a clear statement of the problem in a purely legal area. We believe that the constitutional process is too politicized today. In our opinion, the acutest political struggle is underway for adopting a form of constitution that is convenient for one of the parties. But in fact – for power – everyone wants a maximum of power. Including through their Constitution enforced in some way. However, the Basic Law should be adopted not from the conjuncture considerations of political expediency but be a complete legal document, taking into account the achievements of the world jurisprudence, with the strict observance of all the prescribed legal procedures. After all, the constitution should be the main document of the state, at least for a decade.