{"results":[{"id":"arxiv_2604.00186","title":"Agentic AI and Occupational Displacement: A Multi-Regional Task Exposure Analysis of Emerging Labor Market Disruption","authors":[{"name":"Ravish Gupta"},{"name":"Saket Kumar"}],"abstract":"This paper extends the Acemoglu-Restrepo task exposure framework to address the labor market effects of agentic artificial intelligence systems: autonomous AI agents capable of completing entire occupational workflows rather than discrete tasks. Unlike prior automation technologies that substitute for individual subtasks, agentic AI systems execute end-to-end workflows involving multi-step reasoning, tool invocation, and autonomous decision-making, substantially expanding occupational displacement risk beyond what existing task-level analyses capture. We introduce the Agentic Task Exposure (ATE) score, a composite measure computed algorithmically from O*NET task data using calibrated adoption parameters--not a regression estimate--incorporating AI capability scores, workflow coverage factors, and logistic adoption velocity. Applying the ATE framework across five major US technology regions (Seattle-Tacoma, San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, New York, and Boston) over a 2025-2030 horizon, we find that 93.2% of the 236 analyzed occupations across six information-intensive SOC groups (financial, legal, healthcare, healthcare support, sales, and administrative/clerical) cross the moderate-risk threshold (ATE \u003e= 0.35) in Tier 1 regions by 2030, with credit analysts, judges, and sustainability specialists reaching ATE scores of 0.43-0.47. We simultaneously identify seventeen emerging occupational categories benefiting from reinstatement effects, concentrated in human-AI collaboration, AI governance, and domain-specific AI operations roles. Our findings carry implications for workforce transition policy, regional economic planning, and the temporal dynamics of labor market adjustment","source":"arXiv","year":2026,"language":"en","subjects":["eess.SY","cs.AI","cs.CY","econ.GN","stat.AP"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.00186","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.00186","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2026-03-31T19:36:36Z","score":70},{"id":"arxiv_2602.20180","title":"Is Robot Labor Labor? Delivery Robots and the Politics of Work in Public Space","authors":[{"name":"EunJeong Cheon"},{"name":"Do Yeon Shin"}],"abstract":"As sidewalk delivery robots become increasingly integrated into urban life, this paper begins with a critical provocation: Is robot labor labor? More than a rhetorical question, this inquiry invites closer attention to the social and political arrangements that robot labor entails. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork across two smart-city districts in Seoul, we examine how delivery robot labor is collectively sustained. While robotic actions are often framed as autonomous and efficient, we show that each successful delivery is in fact a distributed sociotechnical achievement--reliant on human labor, regulatory coordination, and social accommodations. We argue that delivery robots do not replace labor but reconfigure it--rendering some forms more visible (robotic performance) while obscuring others (human and institutional support). Unlike industrial robots, delivery robots operate in shared public space, engage everyday passersby, and are embedded in policy and progress narratives. In these spaces, we identify \"robot privilege\"--humans routinely yielding to robots--and distinct perceptions between casual observers (\"cute\") and everyday coexisters (\"admirable\"). We contribute a conceptual reframing of robot labor as a collective assemblage, empirical insights into South Korea's smart-city automation, and a call for HRI to engage more deeply with labor and spatial politics to better theorize public-facing robots.","source":"arXiv","year":2026,"language":"en","subjects":["cs.CY","cs.HC","cs.RO"],"doi":"10.1145/3757279.3785566","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20180","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.20180","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2026-02-18T20:57:58Z","score":70},{"id":"arxiv_2602.10548","title":"Labor, Capital, and Machine: Toward a Labor Process Theory for HCI","authors":[{"name":"Yigang Qin"},{"name":"EunJeong Cheon"}],"abstract":"The HCI community has called for renewed attention to labor issues and the political economy of computing. Yet much work remains in engaging with labor theory to better understand modern work and workers. This article traces the development of Labor Process Theory (LPT) -- from Karl Marx and Harry Braverman to Michael Burawoy and beyond -- and introduces it as an essential yet underutilized resource for structural analysis of work under capitalism and the design of computing systems. We examine HCI literature on labor, investigating focal themes and conceptual, empirical, and design approaches. Drawing from LPT, we offer directions for HCI research and practice: distinguish labor from work, link work practice to value production, study up the management, analyze consent and legitimacy, move beyond the point of production, design alternative institutions, and unnaturalize bourgeois designs. These directions can deepen analyses of tech-mediated workplace regimes, inform critical and normative designs, and strengthen the field's connection to broader political economic critique.","source":"arXiv","year":2026,"language":"en","subjects":["cs.HC"],"doi":"10.1145/3772318.3791147","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10548","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.10548","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2026-02-11T05:40:30Z","score":70},{"id":"doaj_10.52468/2542-1514.2025.9(2).148-158","title":"The relevance of implementing the employee digital profile as an element of the  employer’s HR policy","authors":[{"name":"O. V. Shcherbakova"}],"abstract":"The subject. Economic, technological and geopolitical changes are leading to the digitalization of virtually all structures of the labor market: from the process of production and human resources management to the organization of the workplace. The use of new digital technologies makes it possible to give up routine human labor, contribute to improving the quality of working life of employees and employers, and increase industrial production, which means economic growth of the state. Thus, in accordance with the National Security Strategy, approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated July 2, 2021 No. 400, the situation in the production industry is one of the key criteria of Russia's competitiveness and contributes to the strengthening of the state's defense capability. Ensuring Russia's independence  and competitiveness was also announced to be the main goal of the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation, approved by Presidential Decree No. 642 dated December 1, 2016. On the other hand, the use of new technologies may have time-delayed risks. The most important risk today is the increasing release of labor force and mass cuts of jobs requiring average qualifications, as well as dismissal of employees due to failure to pass tests because of the lack of skills in digital tools.The purpose of the study was to substantiate the urgent character of the implementation of digital profile programs as a part of the employer's personnel policy to achieve the objectives set in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation dated 2021.The methodology of comprehensive research, including methods of document analysis, comparative analysis, secondary use of sociological and economic data were used.Main results. The study shows that the use of the employee digital profile programs will allow the employer to identify weaknesses in any of the employee’s skills well in advance, and to pave individual learning pathway, based on his/her preferences, hobbies  and intentions, in order to upgrade the skills. It is deemed that the competence of employees is a factor for transfer of any business to digitalization. This policy of the employer will allow to cover for low-quality job cut and give personnel the minimum knowledge that makes it possible to acquire information on modern information technologies, be able to use it to solve the set problems and have necessary skills and technology, which will facilitate solution of the problems. Ultimately, these are tools to achieve the tasks set by the state in the framework of the state's defensive capability and competitiveness. At the same time, the lack of normative methodologies for the creation and operation of employee digital profiles and comprehensive scientific research predetermine increasing risks of violation of personal data of employees, privacy of employees, as well as discrimination in making legally significant decisions. Today there are no normative standards of data processing and system interaction, which leads to the diminution of guarantees of employees' rights in terms of respect for personal data and other data in terms of classified information.","source":"DOAJ","year":2025,"language":"","subjects":["Law"],"doi":"10.52468/2542-1514.2025.9(2).148-158","url":"https://enforcement.omsu.ru/jour/article/view/1096","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":69},{"id":"doaj_10.46539/jfs.v10i4.810","title":"The German Population of Siberia amid Social Transformations, 1900s–1920s. Translation from Russian","authors":[{"name":"Vladimir N. Shaidurov"}],"abstract":"At the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, Siberia once again became a “melting pot” that brought together representatives of diverse ethnic groups. The reasons for migration beyond the Urals were predominantly economic. This article examines how various social events in the first third of the 20th century affected the lives of Siberian Germans. Amid the agrarian crisis, Russian Germans engaged in agriculture were compelled to seek ways to survive within Russia. The modernization of the state resettlement policy in the early 20th century and the expansion of rail transport created favorable conditions for labor migration, as a result of which, by the mid-1910s, Siberia had become one of the most rapidly developing agrarian regions. German settlers played no small part in this process by establishing capitalist family-farm enterprises that served as models for Russian old-settlers and other migrants.\n\r\nThe events of 1914–1922 disrupted the established rhythms of German rural life. The economic policies of the Bolsheviks who came to power precipitated famine in the first half of the 1920s. The German population suffered as well, which fueled growing emigration sentiment. Even so, the New Economic Policy (NEP) and the revival of cooperatives enabled a rapid recovery of small-scale commodity production. The All-Russian Mennonite Agricultural Union played an important role in this process. The gradual rollback of the NEP and the shift to a command-administrative economic model brought increasing pressure to bear on the German population, among which conservative-clerical sentiments predominated. By the late 1920s, this would trigger a new round of confrontation between Russian Germans and the Soviet state.\n\r\nThis article will interest readers concerned with the history of ethnic minorities (Russian Germans) and nationalities policy in the 20th century.","source":"DOAJ","year":2025,"language":"","subjects":["History (General) and history of Europe","Social Sciences"],"doi":"10.46539/jfs.v10i4.810","url":"https://jfs.today/index.php/jfs/article/view/810","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":69},{"id":"arxiv_2505.09408","title":"Evolving the Productivity Equation: Should Digital Labor Be Considered a New Factor of Production?","authors":[{"name":"Alex Farach"},{"name":"Alexia Cambon"},{"name":"Jared Spataro"}],"abstract":"As the digital economy grows increasingly intangible, traditional productivity measures struggle to capture the true economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). AI systems capable of cognitive work significantly enhance productivity, yet their contributions remain obscured within the residual category of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This paper explores whether it is time for a conceptual shift to explicitly recognize \"digital labor,\" the autonomous cognitive capability of AI, as a distinct factor of production alongside capital and human labor. We outline the unique economic properties of digital labor, including scalability, intangibility, self-improvement, rapid obsolescence, and elastic substitutability. By integrating digital labor into growth models (such as those by Solow and Romer), we demonstrate strategic implications for business leaders, including new approaches to productivity tracking, resource allocation, investment strategy, and organizational design. Ultimately, treating digital labor as an independent factor offers a clearer view of economic growth and helps organizations manage AI's transformative potential.","source":"arXiv","year":2025,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.TH"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.09408","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.09408","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2025-05-14T14:04:56Z","score":69},{"id":"arxiv_2504.07689","title":"Inequality at risk of automation? Gender differences in routine tasks intensity in developing country labor markets","authors":[{"name":"Janneke Pieters"},{"name":"Ana Kujundzic"},{"name":"Rulof Burger"},{"name":"Joel Gondwe"}],"abstract":"Technological change can have profound impacts on the labor market. Decades of research have made it clear that technological change produces winners and losers. Machines can replace some types of work that humans do, while new technologies increase human's productivity in other types of work. For a long time, highly educated workers benefitted from increased demand for their labor due to skill-biased technological change, while the losers were concentrated at the bottom of the wage distribution (Katz and Autor, 1999; Goldin and Katz, 2007, 2010; Kijima, 2006). Currently, however, labor markets seem to be affected by a different type of technological change, the so-called routine-biased technological change (RBTC). This chapter studies the risk of automation in developing country labor markets, with a particular focus on differences between men and women. Given the pervasiveness of gender occupational segregation, there may be important gender differences in the risk of automation. Understanding these differences is important to ensure progress towards equitable development and gender inclusion in the face of new technological advances. Our objective is to describe the gender gap in the routine task intensity of jobs in developing countries and to explore the role of occupational segregation and several worker characteristics in accounting for the gender gap.","source":"arXiv","year":2025,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.GN"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.07689","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.07689","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2025-04-10T12:19:25Z","score":69},{"id":"arxiv_2512.21649","title":"Ghostcrafting AI: Under the Rug of Platform Labor","authors":[{"name":"ATM Mizanur Rahman"},{"name":"Sharifa Sultana"}],"abstract":"Platform laborers play an indispensable yet hidden role in building and sustaining AI systems. Drawing on an eight-month ethnography of Bangladesh's platform labor industry and inspired by Gray and Suri, we conceptualize Ghostcrafting AI to describe how workers materially enable AI while remaining invisible or erased from recognition. Workers pursue platform labor as a path to prestige and mobility but sustain themselves through resourceful, situated learning - renting cyber-cafe computers, copying gig templates, following tutorials in unfamiliar languages, and relying on peer networks. At the same time, they face exploitative wages, unreliable payments, biased algorithms, and governance structures that make their labor precarious and invisible. To cope, they develop tactical repertoires such as identity masking, bypassing platform fees, and pirated tools. These practices reveal both AI's dependency on ghostcrafted labor and the urgent need for design, policy, and governance interventions that ensure fairness, recognition, and sustainability in platform futures.","source":"arXiv","year":2025,"language":"en","subjects":["cs.HC"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.21649","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.21649","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2025-12-25T12:28:21Z","score":69},{"id":"ss_885e2fe851fac83339f054b197b62446d20436ce","title":"The Soviet Model of Workplace Physical Exercises in the Context of State Social and Labor Policy","authors":[{"name":"E. V. Barysheva "}],"abstract":"There are many bright and significant pages in the history of the formation and development of the physical culture movement in the USSR. A special place in the 1920–1930s is occupied by industrial physical education, the formation of which was directly related to the economic need to increase labor productivity and improve industrial production indicators. The article examines in detail the goals, methods and key aspects of the formation and development of the industrial physical education system in this period. The developed methods for applying various forms of physical education in production were tested at enterprises, subjected to careful analysis, received scientific justification and were subsequently distributed in the form of official instructions for widespread use. Industrial gymnastics was not only a tool for caring for the health of workers, but also an effective means of forming a collectivist identity within the framework of the concept of building a “new man”, which corresponded to the key ideological principles of the Soviet state of that time.","source":"Semantic Scholar","year":2025,"language":"en","subjects":null,"doi":"10.26794/2226-7867-2025-15-6-137-145","url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/885e2fe851fac83339f054b197b62446d20436ce","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":69},{"id":"ss_95210dff8f14e7c1b175953656582c70b2c4e8a9","title":"State Policy to Stimulate Human Capital Development in the Context of Digital Transformation","authors":[{"name":"Yuliya Tochylina"}],"abstract":"In the conditions of modern digital transformation, the development of human capital becomes the basis of sustainable socio-economic growth. Under such circumstances, the issue of effective management of its development becomes particularly relevant. In this process, the main participant is the state, which must promote the intellectual development of society and provide conditions for the harmonious growth of all components of human capital. The purpose of the article is a theoretical and methodological analysis of state policy in the direction of stimulating the development of human capital in Ukraine, outlining its components, problems and promising ways of improvement. During the study, a versatile methodology was applied, which allowed the use of various methods of cognition, including: the method of scientific abstraction and generalization, a systematic approach and a forecasting method. Human capital is a multifaceted concept consisting of a set of components that determine human labor productivity, its ability to create added value, and generate innovations. The growth of human capital is possible only under the condition of purposeful management of the development of all its components, which requires the development and implementation of an appropriate state policy. The latter in this direction is formed on the basis of the legislative framework, within which we have identified the following general groups, each of which is aimed at the development of individual elements of human capital, namely: national strategic and program documents; regulatory legal acts in the field of education; regulatory legal acts regulating state policy in the field of health care; state policy in the field of labor and social protection; a set of regulatory legal acts aimed at the development of digital infrastructure and support for innovative activities.","source":"Semantic Scholar","year":2025,"language":"en","subjects":null,"doi":"10.54929/3041-2390-2025-06-01-03","url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/95210dff8f14e7c1b175953656582c70b2c4e8a9","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":69},{"id":"ss_bb871818b3e903ba70b5e90929a575cd018e0b2b","title":"Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes","authors":[{"name":"Sumedha Gupta"},{"name":"Laura Montenovo"},{"name":"Thuy Nguyen"},{"name":"Felipe Lozano-Rojas"},{"name":"I. Schmutte"},{"name":"Kosali Simon"},{"name":"Bruce A. Weinberg"},{"name":"Coady Wing"}],"abstract":"US workers receive unemployment benefits if they lose their job, but not for reduced working hours. In alignment with the benefits incentives, we find that the labor market responded to COVID-19 and related closure-policies mostly on the extensive (12 pp outright job loss) margin. Exploiting timing variation in state closure-policies, difference-in-differences (DiD) estimates show, between March 12 and April 12, 2020, employment rate fell by 1.7 pp for every 10 extra days of state stay-at-home orders (SAH), with little effect on hours worked/earnings among those employed. Forty percentage of the unemployment was due to a nationwide shock, rest due to social-distancing policies, particularly among “non-essential” workers.","source":"Semantic Scholar","year":2020,"language":"en","subjects":["Business"],"doi":"10.1111/coep.12582","url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bb871818b3e903ba70b5e90929a575cd018e0b2b","pdf_url":"http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/175196/2/coep12582.pdf","is_open_access":true,"citations":164,"published_at":"","score":68.92},{"id":"ss_aac9d1e7c81c42a58ef6a9a1c08bec240caed4aa","title":"The state of the labor market as an indicator of the use of human resources in the Far Eastern Federal District","authors":[{"name":"I.S. Khvan"},{"name":"E. Medvedev"}],"abstract":"The availability of human resources is one of the main conditions for the socio-economic development of an economic entity of any scale: from an enterprise to the state. Work with human resources is most often studied in the context of its formation both in literature and in practice. Meanwhile, working with human resources also implies its rational use, especially in case of insufficiency of this resource. The state of the labor market is the main indicator of the use of the territory's human resources potential. The structure of unemployment, the imbalance between the needs of the labor market and the real structure of employment are direct consequences of the problems of personnel formation and use. The Far East today is the object of an active comprehensive policy of the state. Special development tools are used in relation to this macro-region, starting with the Far Eastern Hectare program to the only institute of its kind - the Ministry for the Development of the Far East.","source":"Semantic Scholar","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":null,"doi":"10.22394/1818-4049-2024-108-3-68-75","url":"https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/aac9d1e7c81c42a58ef6a9a1c08bec240caed4aa","is_open_access":true,"citations":1,"published_at":"","score":68.03},{"id":"doaj_INTELIG%C3%8ANCIA+ARTIFICIAL+E+EDUCA%C3%87%C3%83O+TECNOBANC%C3%81RIA%3A+IMPACTOS+NO+PROCESSO+ENSINO-APRENDIZAGEM","title":"INTELIGÊNCIA ARTIFICIAL E EDUCAÇÃO TECNOBANCÁRIA: IMPACTOS NO PROCESSO ENSINO-APRENDIZAGEM","authors":[{"name":"Tiago Fávero de Oliveira"},{"name":"Breno Apolinário da Silva"}],"abstract":"\nO objetivo deste estudo é analisar como a mudança tecnológica altera processos produtivos e educativos. O texto aponta que, apesar do apelo de modernização e inovação, a difusão de tecnologias de inteligência artificial altera a relação entre linguagem e pensamento, produzindo uma educação tecnobancária cujos efeitos geram submissão, dominação, exploração e universalização de um pensamento único. O artigo parte das análises de Marx sobre a maquinaria e se desenvolve apontando alterações, contradições e desafios sobre o tema. Ao final, são apresentados caminhos para o enfrentamento da questão no sentido de gerar uma educação comprometida com os interesses de emancipação da classe dominada.\n\n\nPalavras-chave: Educação tecnobancária; Inteligência Artificial; Educação.\n","source":"DOAJ","year":2024,"language":"","subjects":["Special aspects of education","Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand","Labor policy. Labor and the state"],"url":"https://periodicos.uff.br/trabalhonecessario/article/view/62242","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":68},{"id":"doaj_10.22409/tn.v22i48.63969","title":"TECNOLOGIA (S) EM TEMPOS DE LUTA CONTRA A PRODUÇÃO DESTRUTIVA DO CAPITAL","authors":[{"name":"Lia Tiriba"},{"name":"Jacqueline  Botelho"},{"name":"Adriana  Barbosa"}],"abstract":"\n--\n","source":"DOAJ","year":2024,"language":"","subjects":["Special aspects of education","Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand","Labor policy. Labor and the state"],"doi":"10.22409/tn.v22i48.63969","url":"https://localhost/trabalhonecessario/article/view/63969","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":68},{"id":"doaj_10.22409/tn.v21i47.61362","title":"OCIO Y TRABAJO EN CLAVE DE BUEN VIVIR. REFLEXIONES PARA CONSTRUIR OTRO FUTURO","authors":[{"name":"Alberto  Acosta"}],"abstract":"\nAtrás quedan las promesas del “desarrollo”, nutridas de uno de los corazones de la Modernidad: el “progreso”. En la vorágine, estamos abocados a replantearnos el tema del trabajo y del ocio. Se ha transformado el fenómeno del “ocio”, para expresar libertad y autonomía en un espacio mercantil de la vida misma. El “ocio mercantil” es reflejo de un mundo “mal desarrollado”, donde “trabajo” y “ocio” terminan igualmente alienados a la acumulación del capital. Pero no todo es desalentador. Hay reflexiones y acciones que demandan la construcción de sociedades radicalmente distintas.\n\n\nPalabras clave: Modernidad, Desarrollo, Progreso, Ocio y Trabajo.\n","source":"DOAJ","year":2024,"language":"","subjects":["Special aspects of education","Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand","Labor policy. Labor and the state"],"doi":"10.22409/tn.v21i47.61362","url":"https://periodicos.uff.br/trabalhonecessario/article/view/61362","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"","score":68},{"id":"arxiv_2410.02888","title":"Pseudo-Automation: How Labor-Offsetting Technologies Reconfigure Roles and Relationships in Frontline Retail Work","authors":[{"name":"Pegah Moradi"},{"name":"Karen Levy"},{"name":"Cristobal Cheyre"}],"abstract":"Self-service machines are a form of pseudo-automation; rather than actually automate tasks, they offset them to unpaid customers. Typically implemented for customer convenience and to reduce labor costs, self-service is often criticized for worsening customer service and increasing loss and theft for retailers. Though millions of frontline service workers continue to interact with these technologies on a day-to-day basis, little is known about how these machines change the nature of frontline labor. Through interviews with current and former cashiers who work with self-checkout technologies, we investigate how technology that offsets labor from an employee to a customer can reconfigure frontline work. We find three changes to cashiering tasks as a result of self-checkout: (1) Working at self-checkout involved parallel demands from multiple customers, (2) self-checkout work was more problem-oriented (including monitoring and policing customers), and (3) traditional checkout began to become more demanding as easier transactions were filtered to self-checkout. As their interactions with customers became more focused on problem solving and rule enforcement, cashiers were often positioned as adversaries to customers at self-checkout. To cope with perceived adversarialism, cashiers engaged in a form of relational patchwork, using techniques like scapegoating the self-checkout machine and providing excessive customer service in order to maintain positive customer interactions in the face of potential conflict. Our findings highlight how even under pseudo-automation, workers must engage in relational work to manage and mend negative human-to-human interactions so that machines can be properly implemented in context.","source":"arXiv","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":["cs.HC","cs.CY"],"doi":"10.1145/3711051","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.02888","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.02888","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2024-10-03T18:19:52Z","score":68},{"id":"arxiv_2410.23322","title":"From Average Effects to Targeted Assignment: A Causal Machine Learning Analysis of Swiss Active Labor Market Policies","authors":[{"name":"Federica Mascolo"},{"name":"Nora Bearth"},{"name":"Fabian Muny"},{"name":"Michael Lechner"},{"name":"Jana Mareckova"}],"abstract":"Active labor market policies are widely used by the Swiss government, enrolling over half of all unemployed individuals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Swiss programs in improving employment and earnings outcomes using causal machine learning and rich administrative data on unemployed individuals in 2014 and 2015, including detailed labor market histories and other covariates. The findings for Swiss citizens and immigrants with permanent residency indicate a small positive average effect of a Temporary Wage Subsidy program on employment and earnings in the third year after program start. In contrast, Basic Courses, such as job application training, exhibit negative effects on both outcomes over the same period. No significant impacts are found for Employment Programs conducted outside the regular labor market or for Training Courses such as language or computer classes. The programs are most effective for individuals with a non-EU migration background, while Temporary Wage Subsidies also benefit those with lower educational attainment. Finally, shallow policy trees provide practical guidance for improving the targeting of program assignments.","source":"arXiv","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.GN"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23322","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.23322","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2024-10-30T09:22:12Z","score":68},{"id":"arxiv_2410.12024","title":"Labor Market Policies in High- and Low-Interest Rate Environments: Evidence from the Euro Area","authors":[{"name":"Povilas Lastauskas"},{"name":"Julius Stakėnas"}],"abstract":"Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010 -- and extending to 17 countries up to 2020 -- we analyze three labor market policies: replacement rates, spending on active labor market policies (ALMPs), and employment protection. We find that these policies deliver different macroeconomic outcomes in low- and high-interest rate environments. In particular, ALMPs reduce unemployment if implemented under a loose monetary policy but not otherwise, whereas higher employment protection delivers expansionary effects under a tight monetary policy. These findings highlight that the effectiveness of labor market policies is significantly influenced by the monetary policy environment, emphasizing the need for coordinated policy design. Methodologically, we contribute by proposing to average local projections using Mallow's $C_{p}$ criterion, allowing for inferences that are robust to mis-specification and accommodate non-linearities.","source":"arXiv","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.GN"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12024","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.12024","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2024-10-15T19:45:30Z","score":68},{"id":"arxiv_2402.05729","title":"Monetary Policy and the Gendered Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from Developing Economies","authors":[{"name":"Marjan Petreski"},{"name":"Stefan Tanevski"},{"name":"Alejandro D. Jacobo"}],"abstract":"Using a Taylor rule amended with official reserves movements, we derive country-specific monetary shocks and employ a local projections-estimator for tracking gender-disaggregated labor-market responses in 99 developing economies from 2009 to 2021. Results show that women experience more negative post-shock employment responses than men, contributing to a deepening of the gender gaps on the labor market. After the shock, women leave the labor market more so than men, which results in an apparently intact or even improved unemployment outcome for women. We find limited evidence of sector-specific reaction to interest rates. Additionally, we identify an intense worsening of women-s position on the labor market in high-growth environments as well under monetary policy tightening. Developing Asia and Latin America experience the most significant detrimental effects on women's employment, Africa exhibits a slower manifestation of the monetary shocks-impact and developing Europe shows the mildest effects.","source":"arXiv","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.GN"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.05729","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.05729","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2024-02-08T15:00:44Z","score":68},{"id":"arxiv_2409.14914","title":"Impact of the Three-Child Policy and Delayed Retirement on the Transfer of Surplus Rural Labor under Xi Jinping's New Population Vision: A Re-examination of China's Lewis Turning Point","authors":[{"name":"Jun Dai"},{"name":"Guanqing Shi"},{"name":"Xiaoke Xie"},{"name":"Aitong Xie"}],"abstract":"Chinese-style modernization involves the modernization of a large population, requiring top-level design in terms of scale and structure. The population perspective in Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era serves as the fundamental guide for population policies. The three-child policy and delayed retirement will affect the supply of labor in China and challenge the previous assessments of China's Lewis Turning Point. This study examines the rural surplus labor transfer from 2013 to 2022 based on urban and rural data. The results indicate that China's overall wage levels have continuously increased, the urban-rural income gap has narrowed, and the transfer of surplus rural labor has slowed. China has passed the first turning point and entered a transitional phase. Factors such as the level of agricultural mechanization, urbanization rate, and urban-rural income gap are more significant in influencing the transfer of surplus labor than the normal working-age population ratio. The delayed retirement policy has a more immediate impact on the supply and transfer of rural surplus labor than the three-child policy. Additionally, delayed retirement can offset the negative impact of the reduced relative surplus labor supply caused by the three-child policy, although the three-child policy could increase the future absolute surplus labor supply.","source":"arXiv","year":2024,"language":"en","subjects":["econ.GN"],"url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.14914","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.14914","is_open_access":true,"published_at":"2024-09-23T11:09:53Z","score":68}],"total":3867331,"page":1,"page_size":20,"sources":["DOAJ","CrossRef","arXiv","Semantic Scholar"],"query":"Labor policy. Labor and the state"}