The impact of logistics and political decisions on greenhouse gas emissions in market transformation

The transport sector is the second largest emitter of global greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason, the global community is currently making a lot of efforts to decarbonize transport: active electrification of transport is underway, various subsidies are introduced to stimulate demand for more environmentally friendly types of transport, requirements for the sulfur content in bunker fuel are tightened, etc. However, few people think about how futile all these actions can be without paying due attention to the optimality of logistics in world trade. In this article, calculations were made based on geopolitical restrictions introduced between Russia and Western countries since 2022, as well as a scenario of reduced trade through the Red Sea (observed in 2024). According to the calculation results, it was revealed that the annual increase in emissions due to suboptimal logistics only in the trade of Russian hydrocarbons and the redirection of goods through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait instead of the Red Sea will amount to 630–690 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq). This exceeds the total emissions from all economic sectors in countries such as Australia, Turkey, Spain and Argentina, or even the UK and the Netherlands. Therefore, international logistics is another key area that deserves close attention when formulating tasks in terms of decarbonization of the global transport sector, in particular, and global low-carbon development in general. That is, the sanctions policy and various geopolitical restrictions can negatively affect the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement, which is an integral part of the Sustainable development goals (SDGs). • The current global policy in the field of preventing global warming is mainly aimed at reducing the use of fossil fuels in the electric power industry and transport. Renewable energy capacities are actively growing every year around the world, and the popularity of electric vehicles and zero-emission alternative fuel vehicles is growing. • However, at the same time, many overlook the importance of such a factor as logistics in world trade, which has undergone significant changes over the period 2022-2024. The optimal cargo delivery routes have been broken as a result of a number of political decisions and military actions in some regions of the world, which form an important link in the supply chain. • A breakdown in the logistics of world trade can negate all efforts aimed at decarbonizing the global economy. Billions of dollars of investments in renewable energy may simply be thrown into the trash, since the lengthening of the routes of delivery of goods leads to an increase in fuel combustion and a multiple increase in emissions. Without optimally structured logistics in world trade, it will be impossible to achieve either the goals of the Paris Agreement or the SDGs.