Impact of relaxing flood policy interventions on fish production: lessons from earthen pond-based farmers in Southwest Nigeria

These days, aquatic (fish) welfare is a major issue and a significant component that affects fish output. Although numerous factors can be involved, climate-induced floods are one of the most critical limiting factors in the aquaculture and fisheries industry’s development. Understanding the extent of losses and damages caused by floods at the farm level will thereby exacerbate pre-emptive policy responses. Thus, the impact of floods on fish production by focusing on catfish earthen pond-based farmers in Southwest Nigeria is presented. A survey is conducted for 150 fish farms in the region. A marginal treatment effects (MTE) approach is employed to determine the heterogeneity across the households and the policy-relevant treatment effects (PRTE). The results show significant heterogeneity in the effects of floods on fish production, considering both observed and unobserved characteristics of the farmers. It is shown that flood significantly increases output loss. Furthermore, farmers with high propensity scores to flood tend to have a high likelihood of incurring output loss. The estimates of PRTE reveal that relaxing policy strategies, such as access to climate information and climate-related training and workshops, would significantly exacerbate output loss due to flood incidences. Thus, intensifying awareness and sensitization on climate change policies will address the flood menace and still increase food production.