Energy-related CO2 emissions and structural emissions’ reduction in China’s agriculture: An input–output perspective

Abstract The greenhouse effect caused by excessive carbon emissions seriously threatens the sustainability of the global economy. Although the secondary and tertiary industries are the principal contributors to CO2 emissions’ growth, the continuous and stable development of agriculture also intensifies carbon emissions to a certain extent. Based on this, this paper uses the input–output method, an energy consumption model, and structural decomposition analysis to study energy-related CO2 emissions and structural emissions’ reduction in China’s agriculture from 2007 to 2017. The research results show that (1) In 2007–2017, the input structure effect and the energy intensity effect inhibited the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s agriculture, with the reduction effect of energy intensity effect being the more prominent, whereas the final demand effect and the energy structure effect contributed to promoting China’s agricultural energy-related CO2 emissions’ growth, with the final demand effect being the greater promoting factor. (2) The energy structure effect failed to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s agriculture because the optimization of consumption structure is still not obvious on China’s agricultural supply-side. The share of energy consumption from high-carbon fuels such as raw coal, coke, and other washed coal has increased, rather than decreased, and the optimization of low-carbon energy sources such as natural gas is still slow, thus limiting the emissions’ reduction effect in the energy structure. (3) The reason why the final demand effect has promoted the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s agriculture is the expanding demand for agriculture in the entire industrial system. Specific to each industry, the secondary industry has played a major role in the final demand effect, accounting for more than 50% of the final demand effect, followed by the primary and the tertiary industries. Finally, this paper provides a theoretical and practical basis for accurately and efficiently implementing emissions’ reduction from the perspectives of the industrial system on the demand-side and the energy system on the supply-side and also in China’s agriculture.