Predicting the population viability of an endangered amphibian under environmental and demographic uncertainty

Population viability analyses (PVAs) represent a key component of many recovery plans for threatened and endangered species. Demography links the processes that affect individuals to population‐level patterns, and hence projections constructed from demographic data are the most common tools for PVAs. We constructed a size‐structured integral projection model (IPM) for the United States federally endangered Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, to evaluate demographic influences on population growth and predict the efficacy of future management actions. Flatwoods salamanders breed in ephemeral wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The ephemeral nature of breeding sites can result in complete recruitment failure in drought years when wetlands fail to fill, or dry before metamorphosis occurs. As a result, this species exhibits marked temporal variability in vital rates that must be accounted for in projection models. We constructed a stochastic IPM using 13 years of mark‐recapture data (2010–2023) from two breeding wetlands. Variable survival rates exhibited by flatwoods salamanders, coupled with a high probability of recruitment failure, result in a low predicted probability of population persistence. Sensitivity analyses revealed age at maturity and the frequency of recruitment exerted the greatest influence on population growth, and thus managers should prioritize conservation efforts that target these demographic processes. Additional management should consider strategies to dampen temporal variability in larval survival, something that could be achieved through emergency salvage operations, captive rearing efforts, and manipulation of wetland hydroperiods.