HIDDEN DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE: REDUCTION IN CANCER DETECTION AS A MANIFESTATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RISK TO PUBLIC HEALTH

Introduction. The full-scale war in Ukraine has caused hidden negative consequences for public health that extend beyond direct losses. The destruction of medical infrastructure and the disruption of early detection programs have led to the fact that the decline in official cancer statistics in 2022–2024 is misleading. This indicates the formation of a «hidden» wave of cancer – an accumulation of undiagnosed cases, which poses a threat to the demographic resilience of the state. This interpretation complements existing approaches (particularly the National Cancer Control Strategy for the period up to 2030) and underscores the necessity of integrating the monitoring of delayed war consequences into national demographic security programs. Methods. The study utilizes data from the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine and reports from the Ministry of Health of Ukraine for the years 2014–2024. The research was conducted using comparative statistical analysis methods to assess the dynamics of morbidity and mortality, as well as descriptive statistics methods to analyze regional, gender, and workforce changes. Results. The article focuses on the following aspects: 1) dynamics of new case registration: a sharp decline in recorded cancer cases was revealed in 2022 (to 106.2 thousand cases) with a subsequent unstable recovery trend, which is a consequence of underreporting due to migration and limited access to healthcare, rather than a real improvement in the epidemiological situation; 2) regional and workforce disparities: a critical drop in diagnostic levels in frontline and occupied regions was confirmed against a background of relative stability in western regions, and a dangerous trend of declining numbers of oncologists, particularly surgeons and radiologists, was recorded; 3) demographic consequences: it is substantiated that the shift of cancer detection to late stages (III–IV) and the phenomenon of «delayed mortality» will become key factors in reducing life expectancy and increasing the burden on the social welfare system in the post-war period. Discussion. Identifying the phenomenon of reduced cancer detection as a specific demographic risk creates a methodological foundation for forecasting the scale of delayed mortality and developing adaptive strategies for restoring the screening system, which is critically important for preserving human potential and ensuring the demographic resilience of Ukraine in the context of post-war recovery. Prospects for further scientific research include clarifying the long-term consequences of reduced diagnostics for the demographic situation, calculating the potential increase in mortality from oncological pathologies and losses in average life expectancy over the coming decades. Keywords: demographic risks, cancer morbidity, cancer diagnostics, healthcare system, war in Ukraine.