Missions, fertility transition, and the reversal of fortunes: evidence from border discontinuities in the emirates of Nigeria

What are the origins of differences in the pace of the demographic transition across African societies, and how do these differences affect economic development? We address this question by analyzing the average and heterogeneous effects of colonial-era Christian missionary activity on human capital accumulation, fertility, and wealth in Nigeria. Our identification strategy exploits discontinuities in mission stations around the borders of some Emirates of Northern Nigeria where missions were restricted from operating by the colonial administration. We find that areas with greater historical missionary activity have higher levels of schooling, lower fertility, and higher household wealth today. The long-run effect of missions is not found in areas with early access to government schools, and is larger for population subgroups—women and Muslims—that have historically suffered disadvantages in access to education. Importantly, we show that the restriction of missions in some Emirates of Northern Nigeria has led to a reversal of fortunes, wherein areas that were more institutionally developed in the precolonial period are relatively poorer today as a result of a slower pace of the demographic transition. The findings support the predictions of the unified theory of economic growth, whereby technological advancement leads to greater demand for education, triggering a fertility decline and resulting in higher incomes.