American Politics in Two Dimensions: Partisan and Ideological Identities versus Anti‐Establishment Orientations

Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy theories) are often attributed to increasing polarization and partisan tribalism. We theorize that many such problems are less the product of left-right orientations than an orthogonal “anti-establishment” dimension of opinion dominated by conspiracy, populist, and Manichean orientations. Using two national surveys from 2019 and 2020, we find that this dimension of opinion is correlated with several antisocial psychological traits, the acceptance of political violence, and time spent on extremist social media platforms. It is also related to support for populist candidates, such as Trump and Sanders, and beliefs in misinformation and conspiracy theories. While many inherently view politics as a conflict between left and right, others see it as a battle between “the people” and a corrupt establishment. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need to expand the traditional conceptualization of mass opinion beyond familiar left-right identities and affective orientations. Verification Materials: The data, code, and any additional materials required to replicate all analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: https: //doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YFPQJH Seeming increases in toxic political rhetoric, misinformation, and ideologically motivated violence have led pundits, politicians, and the public to become increasingly concerned about the health of contemporary American democracy. Journalists characterize the political landscape as rife with extremism, conspiracy theories, and mutual animosity, where civil unrest predominates and shared facts are a luxury of the past (e.g., Wang 2016). Even scholars, who typically take the long view, have sounded alarms (Carey et al. 2019; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018; Runciman 2018). Who or what is to blame? Partisan tribalism and ideological extremism make attractive culprits, especially given the wealth of supportive evidence for this perspective scholars have amassed. Polarization has increased among the public, partisan and ideological identities have closely aligned, and hostility toward political outgroups has intensified Joseph E. Uscinski is Associate Professor, 1300 Campo Sano Blvd., Department of Political Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (uscinski@miami.edu). Adam M. Enders is Assistant Professor, Ford Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292 (adam.enders@louisville.edu). Michelle I. Seelig is Associate Professor, WCB 3019, Department of Cinema and Interactive Media, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (mseelig@miami.edu). Casey A. Klofstad is Professor, 1300 Campo Sano Blvd., Department of Political Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (c.klofstad@miami.edu). John R. Funchion is Associate Professor, 1252 Memorial Drive, Department of English, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (jfunchion@miami.edu). Caleb Everett is Professor, P.O. Box 248106, Department of Anthropology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (caleb@miami.edu). Stefan Wuchty is Associate Professor, P.O. Box 248154, Department of Computer Science and Miami Institute of Data Science and Computing, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (s.wuchty@miami.edu). Kamal Premaratne is Professor, 1251 Memorial Drive, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (kamal@miami.edu). Manohar N. Murthi is Associate Professor, 1251 Memorial Drive, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (mmurthi@miami.edu). The ordering of the two lead authors’ names reflects a principle of rotation. Financial support was provided by the University of Miami U-Link initiative. We wish to thank Miles Armaly, as well as three anonymous reviewers, for their helpful comments. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 00, No. 0, XXXX 2021, Pp. 1–19 ©2021, Midwest Political Science Association DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12616