A warming western boundary current increases the prevalence of commercially disruptive parasites in broadbill swordfish

Meat quality is of paramount importance in the fisheries and aquaculture industries, but the quality of seafood can be affected by environmental variability and change, creating uncertainties in the delivery of consistent, high‐end product. Reports from fishers operating in an Australian fishery catching broadbill swordfish (Xiphias gladius) suggest that anomalously warm waters are linked with myoliquefaction of muscle tissue. The condition affects the marketability of fish by turning the meat into a soft, mushy texture post‐mortem and is caused by infection by the myxozoan parasite Kudoa musculoliquefaciens. Here, we combine microscopy, molecular techniques and ecological modelling to explore potential environmental drivers of the prevalence and intensity of K. musculoliquefaciens in swordfish, as a first step in understanding how a warming ocean might exacerbate the risk of harvesting an infected swordfish and the resultant potential risk of myoliquefaction. We develop predictive dynamic risk surfaces on seasonal timescales, with results revealing both the likelihood of harvesting an infected swordfish and the intensity of parasite load increase during the Austral summer. The prevalence of the parasite further increases in the region dominated by the East Australian Current, when locally warm areas are atypically cool and when average monthly temperatures are more variable. These findings provide information useful in predicting the conditions under which the risk of harvesting infected swordfish might be intensified, enabling adaptation to climate change impacts and optimisation of decision‐making when fishing under risky conditions.