The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market
Abstrak
I develop a new method to predict the impacts of a technology on occupations. I use the overlap between the text of job task descriptions and the text of patents to construct a measure of the exposure of tasks to automation. I first apply the method to historical cases such as software and industrial robots. I establish that occupations I measure as highly exposed to previous automation technologies saw declines in employment and wages over the relevant periods. I use the fitted parameters from the case studies to predict the impacts of artificial intelligence. I find that, in contrast to software and robots, AI is directed at high-skilled tasks. Under the assumption that the historical pattern of long-run substitution will continue, I estimate that AI will reduce 90:10 wage inequality, but will not affect the top 1%.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (1)
Michael Webb
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2019
- Bahasa
- en
- Total Sitasi
- 412×
- Sumber Database
- Semantic Scholar
- DOI
- 10.2139/ssrn.3482150
- Akses
- Open Access ✓