Impact of land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Kentucky, USA

Abstract Policy-makers are interested in knowing the relative importance and combined effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem services. However, knowledge of how to identify these relationships is still lacking. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of water-related ecosystem services and to improve understanding of how they are impacted by land use and climate change in Kentucky, USA. By using InVEST models and environmental setting scenarios, this study first quantifies water-related ecosystem services in a spatially explicit manner. The effects of land use and climate change on these ecosystem services are assessed using two indicators developed in this study. The results show that at the state scale, climate change has a greater impact than land use on water retention, but land use change has a greater impact on soil retention, nitrogen export, and phosphorus export. Climate and land use change have a significant inhibitory effect on water retention, nitrogen export, and phosphorus export. The relative importance and combined influences of land use and climate change also depend on the scale and landscape composition. Unraveling the drivers of ecosystem services in the context of global change can provide critical knowledge for developing practical policy and land management applications.