Internal Migration Over the Course of Urbanization in Developing Countries

Our understanding of the patterns of internal migration that underlie the fast urbanization in developing countries is mainly based on theory and country case studies. We test the hypothesis of a mobility transition from a comparative perspective by analyzing the evolution of different types of internal migration across the settlement hierarchy over the course of urbanization. We rely on repeated population censuses from 41 developing countries, consistent remote‐sensing definitions of urban agglomerations, and statistical modeling to integrate and ensure the comparison of the international set of migration estimates. Results confirm a declining inter‐rural migration at the beginning of urbanization alongside a rising rural exodus, which diffuses down the settlement hierarchy alongside a progressive shift from proximity to long‐distance migration. Relative to the largest city, the attractiveness of secondary urban destinations persists and tends to rise in late stages of urbanization. However, inter‐urban migration played a major role in the initiation of the mobility transition but later declined. Large shares of urban‐ward migration are diverted to the rural hinterland of cities, and the rural exodus does not level off. We provide potential explanations for these deviations from the mobility transition hypothesis, propose theoretical amendments, and discuss the implications of our findings.