Semantic Scholar Open Access 2009 1783 sitasi

On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change

M. Weitzman

Lihat Sumber DOI

Abstrak

With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages. This paper shows that the economic consequences of fat-tailed structural uncertainty (along with unsureness about high-temperature damages) can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate-change policy analysis.

Topik & Kata Kunci

Economics

Penulis (1)

M. Weitzman

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Weitzman, M. (2009). On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.1

Akses Cepat

Lihat di Sumber doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.1

Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2009
Bahasa: en
Total Sitasi: 1783×
Sumber Database: Semantic Scholar
DOI: 10.1162/rest.91.1.1
Akses: Open Access ✓