Hyper‐Balancing: A Neoclassical Realist Understanding of Japan's Policies toward China since Abe's Second Premiership

The dynamics of China‐Japan relations have been a major focus among international relations (IR) scholars of East Asian security studies for a long time, and 2012 was marked as a critical juncture for Japan to decisively transform its policies toward China. Under the administration of Shinzo Abe, Japan has taken a stable, long‐term, and very tough stance toward China, while strengthening its balancing capabilities at the domestic level and even guiding the USA to contain China in the emerging Indo‐Pacific geopolitical space proactively, which can be summarized as “hyper‐balancing.” This article deploys the Neoclassical Realist perspective to explain this policy transformation since 2012. Specifically, it argues that the escalation of China‐US strategic competition on the global stage and the power transition between China and Japan in East Asia provided the opportunity for Japan to transform its China policies. Moreover, the rapidly deteriorating public opinion on China in Japanese society during Abe's second premiership, alongside Shinzo Abe's neoconservative policy preferences on China‐Japan relations and Japan's institutional reforms to enhance its state capacities for implementing foreign and security policies, further facilitated this process. It is contended that the intersection of the systemic pressures and the societal‐political changes at the unit level from 2012 to 2020 significantly reshaped Japan's China policies and laid a new foundation for China‐Japan relations in the long term. As the China‐US strategic competition drags on, there will be very little, if any, space for China and Japan to substantially improve their bilateral relations in the post‐Abe era.